Putin’s Ukraine gamble unravels

Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine was meant to cement his legacy. Instead, it has left Russia battered, isolated — and far from victory. Even a dramatic suggestion by Donald Trump that Ukraine hand over vast swathes of land to Moscow would not undo the damage, according to critics. The Kremlin’s grand design has run aground after years of miscalculation.

For more than a decade, Putin has pursued Ukraine with a single-minded conviction: that it is an artificial state that belongs under Moscow’s shadow. That belief has driven decision after decision — and each, the argument goes, has deepened Russia’s predicament.

Ukraine has suffered enormously. Yet it has preserved its sovereignty and strengthened its determination to join the European Union — the very outcome Putin sought to prevent 13 years ago.

Four gruelling years of war have weakened Russia. Its original war aims remain unmet.

At several points, Putin could have cut his losses. He did not.

His goals have barely shifted. He still seeks full control of four Ukrainian provinces and Crimea, while demanding a “demilitarised” and “denazified” Ukraine led by a compliant government in Kyiv.

That refusal to compromise has complicated even Trump’s attempts to broker peace.

The roots stretch back to 2012, when Putin returned to the presidency. He believed Ukraine could remain sovereign only if it stayed deferential to Moscow and out of Western institutions.

At the time, he had a friendly partner in Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych. Nato membership was off the table, Russia’s Black Sea Fleet lease in Crimea was renewed, and a law elevated the status of the Russian language.

But when Yanukovych prepared to sign an EU association agreement in November 2013, Putin responded with economic pressure so severe it forced Kyiv to abandon the deal. Massive protests followed, and Yanukovych fled in February 2014.

Rather than work with the new government, Putin moved to annex Crimea. The international response was mild.

He then backed Russian-led separatists in eastern Ukraine. When they faltered, he escalated again, deploying the Russian army to prop them up.

The Minsk agreements of 2014 and 2015 were meant to shape Ukraine’s future in Moscow’s favour. They were never implemented.

During the long Covid months, Putin concluded force was the only answer. He aimed to reunite Ukraine with Russia and install a puppet government in weeks.

Instead, Russian forces underestimated their opponent. The offensive stalled. Troops retreated from Kyiv and Kharkiv.

Putin pressed on. He announced the annexation of four more provinces — even though they were not fully occupied. They remain only partially under Russian control.

What has Russia gained? War-ravaged territory, cities reduced to rubble, land littered with unexploded ordnance, and areas requiring heavy policing.

The occupied regions are depopulated and economically inactive. A long border must now be defended against a hostile Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Ukraine edges closer to Western integration.

Russia has broken with the West, lost the European gas market, and grown more dependent on China. It has sought support from North Korea and Iran.

The human toll is staggering: hundreds and thousands dead, injured or traumatised.

In a democracy, such a strategic failure might have been challenged years ago. In an autocracy, one man can keep the war going — and avoid being called to account.

The conflict drags on. The costs continue to mount.

Key Takeaways

• Putin’s decade-long push to control Ukraine has left Russia weakened and isolated.

• Annexed territories remain war-damaged and only partially occupied.

• Ukraine’s Western integration advances despite Moscow’s original aims.

Putin cannot disguise the true scale of his failure – Russia is on the brink