Guli Francis-Dehqani

An Anglican bishop who fled Iran after the 1979 revolution has warned the country’s ruling regime may be nearing its end — but cautioned that the final phase could be violent and unpredictable.

Guli Francis-Dehqani, the Church of England Bishop of Chelmsford, said the government in Tehran appears increasingly desperate to cling to power. Speaking from the UK, she said she currently cannot reach friends or contacts inside Iran as communications collapse amid escalating turmoil.

“I think this regime is in its death throes,” she said. “But death throes can last a very long time.”

A childhood shaped by the revolution

Francis-Dehqani’s warning carries personal weight.

Born in Iran in 1966, she fled the country after the revolution that overthrew the Shah and brought the Islamic Republic to power. Her father, Hassan Dehqani-Tafti, the Anglican bishop in Iran, was detained when their home was raided.

The family endured an attempted assassination and the murder of her brother, Bahram Dehqani-Tafti. They eventually settled in Britain as refugees when she was just 14.

That history, she says, shapes her fears about what might come next.

Brutal crackdown signals regime survival mode

Francis-Dehqani believes the Iranian leadership now feels an existential threat and is acting with escalating brutality.

Recent crackdowns on dissent, she said, suggest a regime focused purely on survival rather than reform. Western governments should not assume Tehran is unprepared for conflict, she warned, noting that Iran has repeatedly surprised its adversaries.

“They are doing whatever they can to survive another day,” she said.

Starmer right to avoid joining strikes

The bishop, who sits in the House of Lords, also backed the decision by Keir Starmer not to join the initial US-Israeli strikes on Iran.

She said Britain was right to question whether the attacks had a clear legal basis under international law, arguing that further erosion of global rules risks worsening instability.

International law, she added, already appears “in shreds”.

Fear of chaos if regime falls

Despite her belief the regime may eventually collapse, Francis-Dehqani warned that the aftermath could be even more dangerous.

Iran lacks a unified opposition capable of stabilising the country, she said. Rival factions — some potentially more extreme than the current authorities — could compete for power.

“If the regime collapses in chaos,” she said, “I really fear civil war and massive bloodshed.”

Iran regime 'in its death throes' but 'shouldn't be underestimated'

Without wanting to bash the Bishop - but with all due respect and considering she left in 1979 what the hell does she know about the current situation. More than DJT I'll cede that but it's a low bar. She's bang on about Sturmer though - we are well shut of this debacle.

Title is somewhat off. The US is in its death throes...

30 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Without wanting to bash the Bishop - but with all due respect and considering she left in 1979 what the hell does she know about the current situation. More than DJT I'll cede that but it's a low bar. She's bang on about Sturmer though - we are well shut of this debacle.

We don't know bt99, she says she has contacts and friends there. She could have her finger on the pulse. Her remarks about some factions being potentially more brutal than the current regime is worrying.

It would be good to have a credible survey about current loyalties and their numbers. How many support the Shah's son, how much support do the Iran Kurds have?

How many support the current regime, conversely, how many want a democracy?

22 minutes ago, bannork said:

We don't know bt99, she says she has contacts and friends there. She could have her finger on the pulse. Her remarks about some factions being potentially more brutal than the current regime is worrying.

It would be good to have a credible survey about current loyalties and their numbers. How many support the Shah's son, how much support do the Iran Kurds have?

How many support the current regime, conversely, how many want a democracy?

Iran has a large and entrenched security apparatus. The IRGC alone has roughly 150,000–190,000 personnel, including ground forces of about 150,000. It also oversees the Basij paramilitary militia, which has tens of thousands of active members and potentially hundreds of thousands to around a million volunteers and reservists. They are now in 32 regional autobnous groupings with 3 generals per group and redundancy built in to their structure with large ammo,arms and food dumps and covert comms networks like fibre optic cables and short wave radio and secret sigamsl in TV programs apprently.

Taken together with the regular armed forces, police, intelligence services, and other internal security bodies, Iran’s wider coercive apparatus likely runs well over a million people, though exact figures are unclear.

This resembles the role played by the siloviki in Russia - the broad network of security, intelligence, police, and military officials who form the backbone of the political system. Estimates often place their numbers at several million, sometimes around five million when all security institutions are counted.

In systems like this, the regime does not necessarily need majority support. It mainly needs the loyalty of the armed and security elite and the willingness to set a very high, often brutal, threshold for resistance.

External military pressure may not automatically produce regime collapse either. Historically, air campaigns alone rarely topple governments without internal political fractures or ground forces.

Minority groups such as the Kurds and Baluchis inside Iran have their own agendas and are often cautious about aligning fully with outside powers. Many of these groups are aware that great powers may support them tactically but not necessarily in the long term. I may be wrong but I'm betting the cetre holds and are gagging for boots on the ground so they can go ful lgueilla warfare like Iraq and the Baath army pivoting to Al-Queda - but x 10. Bombing a kids school and the sight of 167 butchered children on state tv tends to concentrate minds as well.

21 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Iran has a large and entrenched security apparatus. The IRGC alone has roughly 150,000–190,000 personnel, including ground forces of about 150,000. It also oversees the Basij paramilitary militia, which has tens of thousands of active members and potentially hundreds of thousands to around a million volunteers and reservists. They are now in 32 regional autobnous groupings with 3 generals per group and redundancy built in to their structure with large ammo,arms and food dumps and covert comms networks like fibre optic cables and short wave radio and secret sigamsl in TV programs apprently.

Taken together with the regular armed forces, police, intelligence services, and other internal security bodies, Iran’s wider coercive apparatus likely runs well over a million people, though exact figures are unclear.

This resembles the role played by the siloviki in Russia - the broad network of security, intelligence, police, and military officials who form the backbone of the political system. Estimates often place their numbers at several million, sometimes around five million when all security institutions are counted.

In systems like this, the regime does not necessarily need majority support. It mainly needs the loyalty of the armed and security elite and the willingness to set a very high, often brutal, threshold for resistance.

External military pressure may not automatically produce regime collapse either. Historically, air campaigns alone rarely topple governments without internal political fractures or ground forces.

Minority groups such as the Kurds and Baluchis inside Iran have their own agendas and are often cautious about aligning fully with outside powers. Many of these groups are aware that great powers may support them tactically but not necessarily in the long term. I may be wrong but I'm betting the cetre holds and are gagging for boots on the ground so they can go ful lgueilla warfare like Iraq and the Baath army pivoting to Al-Queda - but x 10. Bombing a kids school and the sight of 167 butchered children on state tv tends to concentrate minds as well.

Well it looks like there's going to be US boots on the ground. We'll have to wait and see what their role will be.

Just now, bannork said:

Well it looks like there's going to be US boots on the ground. We'll have to wait and see what their role will be.

Dead heroes or stupid losers depending on public propagandist press conferences or background mic drops ?

47 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Iran has a large and entrenched security apparatus. The IRGC alone has roughly 150,000–190,000 personnel, including ground forces of about 150,000. It also oversees the Basij paramilitary militia, which has tens of thousands of active members and potentially hundreds of thousands to around a million volunteers and reservists. They are now in 32 regional autobnous groupings with 3 generals per group and redundancy built in to their structure with large ammo,arms and food dumps and covert comms networks like fibre optic cables and short wave radio and secret sigamsl in TV programs apprently.

Taken together with the regular armed forces, police, intelligence services, and other internal security bodies, Iran’s wider coercive apparatus likely runs well over a million people, though exact figures are unclear.

This resembles the role played by the siloviki in Russia - the broad network of security, intelligence, police, and military officials who form the backbone of the political system. Estimates often place their numbers at several million, sometimes around five million when all security institutions are counted.

In systems like this, the regime does not necessarily need majority support. It mainly needs the loyalty of the armed and security elite and the willingness to set a very high, often brutal, threshold for resistance.

External military pressure may not automatically produce regime collapse either. Historically, air campaigns alone rarely topple governments without internal political fractures or ground forces.

Minority groups such as the Kurds and Baluchis inside Iran have their own agendas and are often cautious about aligning fully with outside powers. Many of these groups are aware that great powers may support them tactically but not necessarily in the long term. I may be wrong but I'm betting the cetre holds and are gagging for boots on the ground so they can go ful lgueilla warfare like Iraq and the Baath army pivoting to Al-Queda - but x 10. Bombing a kids school and the sight of 167 butchered children on state tv tends to concentrate minds as well.

Perhaps many of the IGRC and Basij members are motivated by salaries and power rather than ideology.

Once the former is gone, if the Americans cripple their oil exports, their loyalties might change. Of course the IGRC may fight to the last man if they see defeat looming, as retribution and execution might follow.

3 minutes ago, bannork said:

Perhaps many of the IGRC and Basij members are motivated by salaries and power rather than ideology.

Once the former is gone, if the Americans cripple their oil exports, their loyalties might change. Of course the IGRC may fight to the last man if they see defeat looming, as retribution and execution might follow.

There's probably a lot of that but if you break ranks it's almost certain death at the moment and probably for that of your families and you have to be sure that you can bring plenty more with you more likely to be a civil war if that happens rather than some Ceascusue collapse. That tends to focus minds somewhat in extremis. China will start getting mightily pissed off if they lose half their oil supplies and will bid up what remains on the global markets pushing up the price for everyone - which is what the regime wants. They want us in the west to feel pain and we are just at the start of that.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/38513564/uk-shoppers-empty-shelves-iran-war-drives-costs/

5 hours ago, bannork said:

We don't know bt99, she says she has contacts and friends there. She could have her finger on the pulse. Her remarks about some factions being potentially more brutal than the current regime is worrying.

It would be good to have a credible survey about current loyalties and their numbers. How many support the Shah's son, how much support do the Iran Kurds have?

How many support the current regime, conversely, how many want a democracy?

I find it rather disgusting for someone to suggest that a British Iranian woman who's brother was murdered when she was 13 knows little of Iran. It was the country she was born into, and ideed spent her formative years. she in fact fled in 1980 when her 24 year old brother was murdered by the new government. and a year after attackers shot her mum, and tried to shoot her dad.

41 minutes ago, Roadsternut said:

I find it rather disgusting for someone to suggest that a British Iranian woman who's brother was murdered when she was 13 knows little of Iran. It was the country she was born into, and ideed spent her formative years. she in fact fled in 1980 when her 24 year old brother was murdered by the new government. and a year after attackers shot her mum, and tried to shoot her dad.

I don't know why you're quoting me.

I never suggested the bishop knew little about Iran.

6 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Without wanting to bash the Bishop - but with all due respect and considering she left in 1979 what the hell does she know about the current situation. More than DJT I'll cede that but it's a low bar. She's bang on about Sturmer though - we are well shut of this debacle.

Who is Sturmer?

Just now, khaosokman said:

Who is Sturmer?

The notorious Nazi magazine edited by Julius Streicher. Der .....

7 hours ago, bannork said:

If the regime collapses in chaos,” she said, “I really fear civil war and massive bloodshed.

Good, terrorists killing each other.

11 minutes ago, bannork said:

I don't know why you're quoting me.

I never suggested the bishop knew little about Iran.

He doesn't want to engage directly with me for some reason so does it tangentially. I'll answer she's a Bishop involved in sheperding her flock and adminstrating the Diocese - with all the goodwill in the world it would be surprising if she was an expert on the current Iranian regime in detail except to condemn it and hope for a better Iran. As a Christian she will beleive in the Christ's message of forgiveness and redemption and slow to anger rather than snark and I for one will join her in her assumed position.

Amen.

52 minutes ago, bannork said:

I don't know why you're quoting me.

I never suggested the bishop knew little about Iran.

You responded and quoted an ignored Communist. That person made that suggestion. I never suggested you were the origin of the quote.

44 minutes ago, khaosokman said:

Who is Sturmer?

It's a simple typographic error. You can untie your panties.

5 hours ago, Roadsternut said:

It's a simple typographic error. You can untie your panties.

U and A are far apart on the keyboard. If someone does not know his name they are not a credible analyst.

56 minutes ago, khaosokman said:

U and A are far apart on the keyboard. If someone does not know his name they are not a credible analyst.

Only if you are using a QWERTY keyboard.

I don't know who the <deleted> you are, neither do I care. I know you are not an analyst.

2 minutes ago, Roadsternut said:

Only if you are using a QWERTY keyboard.

I don't know who the <deleted> you are, neither do I care. I know you are not an analyst.

Normal keyboards have U and A far apart. I'm 20x the analyst any socialist on here is.