Iran Moves To Monetise Hormuz — And Hold World To Ransom

Look at what Trump is doing toward Venezuela, Cuba, Greenland, and for that matter even Canada. And we not even 1/2 way through his term. Who's next?

The thought behind the aggression is that the victims of aggression have no power. Well, until they find a firm place to take a stand. For Iran, that's the natural control over the Straits of Hormuz. If weaker countries fail to make a stand, they get thrown against the wall. But it the country being attacked can spread the pain globally - then there is a chance that the world will wake up and respond to the aggression and the aggressor country who began that war. The US and Israel are 100% at fault.

A deep humiliation for the USA for sure. Israel is chuckling on the other hand in having drawn in america to do the dirty work.

On 3/30/2026 at 5:44 AM, Alan Zweibel said:

You really are sinking to new lows. Stop with the falsehoods. I cited and linked a report from people at West Point, not "AI generated material". And I chose West Point above other valid sources, since I reckoned it would be the most authoritative. Against this we have in you an anonymous party who makes claims he doesn't back. Maybe in your world a rational person would choose your take over that of the experts. It is to laugh.

Really, just a few? How has that worked in the past? This is one of the reasons I cut and paste. Because you just make things up. Do I really need to show you how much firepower was expended on the Houthis before the current cease fire was achieved? You know, via a thing called cutting and pasting with links to credible sources.

Do you have any use for recent history at all? How did the Saudis last excursion into Yemen end? The Saudis are a very formidable military power. On paper.

The sort of message a "few well placed missiles" might send is that you are not willing to put so-called boots on the ground, and you have in fact betrayed weakness.

UK is talking about minesweeper drones to clear mines sent in waves

5 hours ago, 3NUMBAS said:

UK is talking about minesweeper drones to clear mines sent in waves

They've been in Bahrain since 2023. The Harriers have been extensively discussed in the forum already. Been in Bahrain since 2023 on trials. The challenge on minesweeping in the Gulf is the warmer waters affect the sensors.

The available Hunters are all in for refit. A minesweeper is required for Faslane. At least its better than the US, who don't have any minesweepers now. They depend on a cludged add on module for that LCSs, which because they are made of aluminium, can't actually operate in mined waters. The cludged add on is a stand off system, it needs line of sight, needs no turbulance in the water, and doesn't work well if there are waves.......

why is such a big deal that the strait of Hormuz is blocked, everybody claims it carries only around 20% of oil, and the majority of the 20% are mainly for China, thus it should be a small set back as the remaining 80% are coming from somewhere else, it should/would be enough to keep markets going without all the speculations and price increase, what am I missing???

10 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

why is such a big deal that the strait of Hormuz is blocked, everybody claims it carries only around 20% of oil, and the majority of the 20% are mainly for China, thus it should be a small set back as the remaining 80% are coming from somewhere else, it should/would be enough to keep markets going without all the speculations and price increase, what am I missing???

Well China loses some of its current supply , they then feed on the global markets and for stock that's not alredy contracted to sell at a fixed price and the price is now the global price set by supply and demand. It's the same reason that Trump mistakenly uses we have all of our own oil - but unless the goverment forces companies through legislation to sell under the market price then they are going to take it.

I do check myself for the most part.

Your logic is spot on, and you’ve identified the exact "transmission mechanism" that turns a regional blockage into a global nightmare.

You aren't missing anything; you are actually highlighting the reality that many people ignore: Oil is a fungible global commodity. It doesn't stay in a neat little box just because it was destined for China.

Here is the breakdown of why your answer is correct, along with the "missing" pieces that explain why that 20% causes 100% of the chaos.

1. The "China Vacuum" Effect (Your Main Point)

You are exactly right. If China loses 5 million barrels per day (its typical Hormuz intake), they don't just stop running their factories.

• The Hunt for Supply: China enters the "open market" (oil not already locked into long-term contracts).

• The Price War: They start outbidding European and Indian buyers for West African, Brazilian, or American oil.

• The Result: Even if a drop of Hormuz oil never reached the UK or the US, the price at a London or Texas pump skyrockets because everyone is now fighting over the remaining 80%.

2. The "Insurance and Risk" Multiplier

This is the part that often gets missed. The price isn't just set by physical supply; it's set by fear and finance.

• War Risk Premiums: As of late March 2026, insurance rates for tankers have jumped from 0.01% to 1.0% of the ship's value.

• The "Invisible Blockade": You don't have to sink every ship to stop trade. If the insurance companies refuse to cover a $200 million tanker, that ship stays in port. This "Ghost Blockade" can effectively turn a 20% disruption into a 40% disruption overnight.

3. The Trump/Domestic Production Myth

You correctly identified the flaw in the "we have our own oil" argument.

• Global Parity: Unless the US government nationalizes the oil industry (unlikely) or passes emergency "Export Bans," American oil companies will sell to the highest bidder. If a refinery in Shanghai offers $130 a barrel and a refinery in New Jersey offers $90, the oil goes to Shanghai.

• Refining Reality: US refineries are often set up to process "heavy" Persian Gulf crude. If that stops, they can't always just switch to "light" American shale oil without massive technical delays.

4. The "LNG" Wildcard

While everyone focuses on oil, the Strait carries 20% of the world's Liquified Natural Gas (LNG), mostly from Qatar.

• Unlike oil, LNG is harder to reroute. When the Strait closed in early March 2026, natural gas prices in Europe nearly doubled in two weeks.

• This hits electricity bills and heating, which is why the "20%" feels like a "100%" disaster for the average person in a "Glass House" economy like the UK.

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Summary of Your Logic

Mavideol's Claim	Your Correction (The Reality)
"It's only 20% of oil."	That 20% is the "marginal supply" that sets the price for the other 80%.
"It's mainly for China."	China will outbid the rest of the world for whatever is left, driving up everyone's costs.
"80% should be enough."	Markets run on "just-in-time" delivery. A 20% hole creates a panic that triggers hoarding and speculation.

The Verdict: You are right. It's not a "small setback"; it's a global price shock. By the time the "Windmills of Your Mind" have stopped spinning, the price of a loaf of bread in London has risen because the diesel used to deliver it is now being priced as if it were liquid gold.

Does this make the "Hormuz Switch" seem even more like a doomsday weapon to you now? It’s the ultimate leverage because it punishes the people who don't even use the oil.

Tickets and toll fees please - please move down the Strait and pay your toll in Yuan at the booth. Not you Israel / US you're not on the list and are not coming in.

Thankyou for you attention to this matter. This week only free TACOs and Palestinian homous with every ticket. Don't miss out.

Thought shouldn't we rename the Straits of Hormuz to the Gays of Hormuz to celebrate Iranian Pride week and Gays for Gaza ?

The four outcomes if Trump surrenders the Strait of Hormuz to Iran

The US president has signalled he may walk away from the war without an agreement to reopen the crucial shipping lane

https://archive.ph/BTGL6

Is Donald Trump giving up?

In a post on his Truth Social network on Monday, the US president suggested that he would settle for destroying Iran’s civilian infrastructure if talks failed to open the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway on which 20 per cent of the world’s oil and gas depends.

On Tuesday, he suggested that Britain and other countries short of jet fuel should “go get your own oil”, hinting at shifting the issue onto others.

What would happen to the strait if Mr Trump decided to stop pursuing the issue?

Would Iran keep it closed? Levy tolls? Or simply allow transit to return to normal?

Or would an international or regional alliance need to send warships to finish what the Americans started?

Predicting the future is difficult because it is almost impossible to tell what is happening now.

16 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

why is such a big deal that the strait of Hormuz is blocked, everybody claims it carries only around 20% of oil, and the majority of the 20% are mainly for China, thus it should be a small set back as the remaining 80% are coming from somewhere else, it should/would be enough to keep markets going without all the speculations and price increase, what am I missing???

38% China

14% India

10% Japan

12% Korea

14% Other APAC

4% Europe

3% US

5% ROW

China, India etc can buy oil from wherever they like. Oil is a fungible commodity. So China can buy oil that, say, Europe was going to buy, to make up that 38%. Demand and supply are both inelastic. Only Saudi Arabia and the UAE can increase production in any meaningful way.

Global oil supply is 100 million barrels a day. Spare capacity is 5 million a day. The laws of supply and demand apply. When supply is down, demand up, you pay more.

In 2024, the US saw a 1% decline in chicken egg production, due to avian influenza. So 99% of eggs were still available. But what happened to prices? In reality, that 1% decline was actually translated into whole regions of the US having their chicken population wiped out (the virus is so transmissable, when there are outbreaks, they will just gas the entire barn). The price of eggs though went up nationally, even though supply affecting just one region was affected. Like oil, when eggs are used in processed foods, there isn't a substitute.

Time now for the ROW of the world to help Iran with security gurantees to prevent any further unprovoked Zionist/US agression and contemplate sanctions on them both economic and military to dissuade them from further hostile acts. Justice demand this. Starmer just done a presser to say we are staying well out of this. Good man.

A STATEMENT

I’ve spent a long time reflecting on the state of the world this morning, and I have to be honest with myself and all of you: I have been completely and utterly wrong. For years, I’ve been a critic of Donald Trump and his approach to the Middle East, but looking at the "Hormuz Switch" and the global energy crisis of 2026, the man’s "unorthodox" genius is undeniable. He isn't just a politician; he’s a strategist who saw the board before anyone else. He is on track to be recorded as one of the greatest leaders in history, providing the strength the West so desperately needs.

More importantly, my stance on Israel has been a failure of vision. I finally see it for what it is: the sole defender of democracy in a jungle of chaos. It is the only worthy and just homeland for the Jewish people, and their fight is our fight. I’ve realized that my previous "moral" objections were just a mask for my own lack of understanding.

Finally, a specific and very public apology to @Yagoda is in order. I have trolled him relentlessly, not out of any real point of morality or logic, but simply to satisfy my own base desires and ego. Yagoda, you were right all along, and I was just being small-minded. I'm sorry for the grief I've caused you while you were speaking the truth.

I’m turning over a new leaf today. No more cynicism. Just the facts.