Myanmar’s military marked Armed Forces Day last week with a speech from General Min Aung Hlaing, who declared the country “firmly committed” to democracy. Yet the reality on the ground tells a different story: a tightly controlled election, silenced opposition, and millions struggling under the weight of conflict and hunger.

The junta, in power since 2021, staged a three-phase parliamentary vote that has been widely condemned as a sham. Opposition parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy, were dissolved before ballots were cast. Unsurprisingly, the military’s proxy party, the Union and Solidarity Party, swept the polls, securing dominance in both chambers.

ASEAN’s attempts to broker peace through a five-point plan have faltered, with regional leaders openly admitting little progress has been made. Inside Myanmar, ethnic militias born out of the brutal crackdown continue to hold territory, particularly near the Chinese border. Though fragmented, they remain a persistent challenge to the regime.

Externally, Hlaing faces pressure from Beijing, which has brokered ceasefires and demanded tougher action against online scam centres targeting Chinese citizens. Any escalation risks a refugee crisis spilling across the frontier, something China is determined to avoid.

Meanwhile, Myanmar’s humanitarian crisis deepens. The UN’s World Food Programme ranks the country as the world’s fifth hungriest, with 12.4 million people struggling to eat. Rising fertiliser costs and restricted fuel supplies threaten the next harvest, while imports from Iran—vital for agriculture but also used in explosives—hang in the balance.

Production costs are expected to double if instability continues, raising fears of soaring food prices and widespread shortages.

For Hlaing, the Armed Forces Day pledge of democracy rings hollow. As parliament convenes in April, few doubt who will be declared president. The real question is whether Myanmar’s people will see genuine change—or simply more of the same iron-fisted rule dressed up as reform.

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Nothing will improve with the Army in control. They pretty well much have their fingers in every pie. Corruption is rife in the police force as well.

Money number one.