The United Arab Emirates is preparing to help the U.S. and other allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force, Arab officials said, a move that would make it the first Persian Gulf country to become a combatant, after being hit by Iranian attacks.

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/uae-iran-war-strait-of-hormuz-9836ecbb?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqeZ0xmFwEu3ZTRn_VfHMyVklnBgElQjxTG0d_4roVQPH8T5ufFbPEEOfjzVIlo%3D&gaa_ts=69ccecc1&gaa_sig=p7YFPrSWWrB--FTP5OE-7LQqJy_IGNPjUOtI_-VIzSWZaVrlJ1o_r_624aXnxbq7WPv6zH9-nVZDHCk7hwuZaA%3D%3D

Something's brewing, I can smell it. Give it a day or two

20 hours ago, 3NUMBAS said:

The United Arab Emirates is preparing to help the U.S. and other allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force, Arab officials said, a move that would make it the first Persian Gulf country to become a combatant, after being hit by Iranian attacks.

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/uae-iran-war-strait-of-hormuz-9836ecbb?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqeZ0xmFwEu3ZTRn_VfHMyVklnBgElQjxTG0d_4roVQPH8T5ufFbPEEOfjzVIlo%3D&gaa_ts=69ccecc1&gaa_sig=p7YFPrSWWrB--FTP5OE-7LQqJy_IGNPjUOtI_-VIzSWZaVrlJ1o_r_624aXnxbq7WPv6zH9-nVZDHCk7hwuZaA%3D%3D

Currently, the almighty US navy/army is unable to do that. Adding a few UAE or European forces won't change much.

16 hours ago, ukrules said:

Something's brewing, I can smell it. Give it a day or two

Could be trump's underpants!!

17 minutes ago, candide said:

Currently, the almighty US navy/army is unable to do that. Adding a few UAE or European forces won't change much.

It makes a big difference. The self appointed critics are so blinded by their collective dislike/hatred of the USA and Israel, that they can't wrap their heads around the fact that the intervention was done with the encouragement and tacit co-operation of the Gulf Arab states. Iran has caused continuing strife and problems for; Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Oman. They want the Iranian threat stopped and do not want to see shiite extremists with nuclear arms.

At this time, it is still unlikely that there will be an attempt to open the Strait of Hormuz. An operation requires the support of the GCC and that hasn't occurred yet. Trump's bluster and theatrics was a crude attempt to get Iran to pay attention to the consequences. If an operation is undertaken, the Arabs will tell Israel to stay away. Once we see a pause in Israeli overflights it will be an indication that the Arabs are going in. I doubt it will get to that point though because it will require a sacrifice on the part of the Arabs and they do not want to see their cities attacked further.

The UAE has 44,000 troops. Iran has 580,000, not including the IRGC. The sheiks are dreaming.

4 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Iran has 580,000, not including the IRGC.

belief in CNN again ?

Half of them would not fight even if they had that many troop.

1 minute ago, Lacessit said:

The UAE has 44,000 troops. Iran has 580,000, not including the IRGC. The sheiks are dreaming.

It is unlikely the Iranian conventional forces will be used. The IRGC and QUDS units will be deployed, since they can be relied on to fight until death. That's 150,000. They need transportation.The Iranian airlift and sealift capacity is gone. The IRGC naval units rely on small speedboats and UAVs. These cannot be used to transport personnel or to resupply positions. The munitions depots, munitions and manufacturing plants have been degraded. Russia can't afford to supply Iran for long to the detriment of its operations in Ukraine.

It is unlikely that the UAE will act alone. TIf they do, it will in conjunction with other Arab nations.The Saudis have an active military of 275,000 excluding the paramilitary. Kuwait can put 20,000 into the field. Oman 40,000, Iraq has 200,000 and would use any conflict with Iraq as an opportunity to get rid of the Iranian backed militias once and for all.

If Iran attacks Saudi Arabia, the Pakistani military is obliged to respond. They could shift 100,000+ into the region. The Egyptians have a military that numbers 850,000 and can easily put 100,000 into the field if there is a need. Most of the aforementioned want to avoid further conflict. They will rattle their swords in an attempt to get Iran to agree to a truce.

The Gulf Arab militaries are trained and led by competent trained officers. Dismissing them outright is western arrogance.

7 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

It is unlikely the Iranian conventional forces will be used. The IRGC and QUDS units will be deployed, since they can be relied on to fight until death. That's 150,000. They need transportation.The Iranian airlift and sealift capacity is gone. The IRGC naval units rely on small speedboats and UAVs. These cannot be used to transport personnel or to resupply positions. The munitions depots, munitions and manufacturing plants have been degraded. Russia can't afford to supply Iran for long to the detriment of its operations in Ukraine.

It is unlikely that the UAE will act alone. TIf they do, it will in conjunction with other Arab nations.The Saudis have an active military of 275,000 excluding the paramilitary. Kuwait can put 20,000 into the field. Oman 40,000, Iraq has 200,000 and would use any conflict with Iraq as an opportunity to get rid of the Iranian backed militias once and for all.

If Iran attacks Saudi Arabia, the Pakistani military is obliged to respond. They could shift 100,000+ into the region. The Egyptians have a military that numbers 850,000 and can easily put 100,000 into the field if there is a need. Most of the aforementioned want to avoid further conflict. They will rattle their swords in an attempt to get Iran to agree to a truce.

The Gulf Arab militaries are trained and led by competent trained officers. Dismissing them outright is western arrogance.

The rule of thumb is 3 attackers are needed to be successful against a single defender. Ukraine is a good example of that maxim.

IMO Iran is not going to invade anyone. It will sit and wait for armed forces to come to it. It has the advantages of terrain, preparation and short supply lines.

How do you know the Iranian conventional forces won't fight to defend their homeland? What evidence do you have supporting that statement?

The UAE operates nine major desalination plants in Abu Dhabi.

Guess what Iran will attack ?

1 hour ago, PhilipHabib said:

belief in CNN again ?

Half of them would not fight even if they had that many troop.

Against a Sunni Arab invasion? 😃

A kind reminder that geography matters.... Iran is not a flat country.

Officials say the UAE has reviewed military options to help reopen the route, including supporting naval mine-clearing missions and securing control of contested islands in the strait.

Among them is Abu Musa, controlled by Iran for decades but claimed by the UAE. Backing a potential US seizure of the island would represent a dramatic shift in Gulf security policy.

Drone Attacks Push Abu Dhabi Toward War

The UAE’s tougher stance follows weeks of escalating Iranian attacks. Emirati officials say more than 2,000 drones and missiles have targeted the country since late February, killing at least 11 people.

The barrage has intensified pressure on the government to act. Analysts say the attacks have transformed a conflict once viewed as distant into a direct national security threat.

Coalition Push at the United Nations

Diplomatic efforts are also underway at the United Nations Security Council to legitimise military action.

Bahrain — host to the US Navy’s regional command — is sponsoring a resolution that could authorise an international operation to restore shipping through the strait. A vote is expected soon.

Other Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, have hardened their rhetoric against Tehran after repeated attacks on energy infrastructure but have not yet committed troops.

Economic Shock Forces a Strategic Pivot

Behind the diplomatic shift lies growing economic anxiety in the UAE. Iranian strikes have rattled investor confidence, disrupted aviation routes and shaken the tourism sector that underpins Dubai’s economy.

Authorities have already rolled out a billion-dirham support package to steady markets.

But a deeper military role carries its own risks. Tehran has warned it could target any civilian infrastructure used to support an assault on its territory — raising the stakes for a country that has long tried to balance commerce with regional diplomacy.

UAE 'preparing to join US fight' to reopen Strait of Hormuz

I take it the UAE want ‘third country nationals’ doing the ‘by force’ bit.

3 hours ago, candide said:

A kind reminder that geography matters.... Iran is not a flat country.

So the erf ain't all flat then? ☹️

22 hours ago, ukrules said:

Something's brewing, I can smell it. Give it a day or two

Maybe best keep it to yourself.

5 hours ago, Lacessit said:

The rule of thumb is 3 attackers are needed to be successful against a single defender. Ukraine is a good example of that maxim.

IMO Iran is not going to invade anyone. It will sit and wait for armed forces to come to it. It has the advantages of terrain, preparation and short supply lines.

How do you know the Iranian conventional forces won't fight to defend their homeland? What evidence do you have supporting that statement?

There will not be a full invasion of Iran. There might be the creation of buffer zones that disrupt the Iranian revenue stream and disrupt attacks on marine traffic. Even this is unlikely if Iran agrees to suspend its attacks.

UAE want Hormuz open by force

Go for it. Invade Iran. You'll need to beat them because after your desalination plants are destroyed, you won't have a country were no one other that a Bedouin can live. Fool around, find out. Trump will protect you!

6 hours ago, Patong2021 said:

There will not be a full invasion of Iran. There might be the creation of buffer zones that disrupt the Iranian revenue stream and disrupt attacks on marine traffic. Even this is unlikely if Iran agrees to suspend its attacks.

I would like to have the same connection to the inner thoughts of the Pentagon as you do. No-one knows how strong the Iranians really are, or how well they will fight.

As Mike Tyson once said, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. Then the fog of war takes over.

Having a President with no battle experience ignoring the advice of someone who has plenty is not a good start to any war.

The Iranians will suspend their attacks when they have got what they want. Not the same as what Trump and the UAE want.

4 hours ago, Lacessit said:

I would like to have the same connection to the inner thoughts of the Pentagon as you do. No-one knows how strong the Iranians really are, or how well they will fight.

As Mike Tyson once said, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. Then the fog of war takes over.

Having a President with no battle experience ignoring the advice of someone who has plenty is not a good start to any war.

The Iranians will suspend their attacks when they have got what they want. Not the same as what Trump and the UAE want.

The Iranians are hurting. The public is restless. You are relying on western media reports which are biased against Trump, USA and Israel. The Gulf Arab media has a different perspective and the Iranian diaspora, who have family and friends in iran, have a different perspective. Yes, Iran is hanging on, but it cannot continue to see its economy ruined, and its military assets degraded. No one can. The regime is still executing its citizens.

And my position in respect to an "invasion" is based upon common sense. There is neither a need to invade and occupy the entire country, nor a desire to do so. If an action is taken and it is still unlikely, it will be a joint action undertaken with an international agreement led by the GCC, and it might include coastal areas where Iran had shore batteries. Once there is an international agreement, Iran will probably back down. Bahrain is leading the effort at the UN. Iran does not have support other than from Russia, North Korea, Cuba and China.

36 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

The Iranians are hurting. The public is restless. You are relying on western media reports which are biased against Trump, USA and Israel. The Gulf Arab media has a different perspective and the Iranian diaspora, who have family and friends in iran, have a different perspective. Yes, Iran is hanging on, but it cannot continue to see its economy ruined, and its military assets degraded. No one can. The regime is still executing its citizens.

And my position in respect to an "invasion" is based upon common sense. There is neither a need to invade and occupy the entire country, nor a desire to do so. If an action is taken and it is still unlikely, it will be a joint action undertaken with an international agreement led by the GCC, and it might include coastal areas where Iran had shore batteries. Once there is an international agreement, Iran will probably back down. Bahrain is leading the effort at the UN. Iran does not have support other than from Russia, North Korea, Cuba and China.

The world is hurting, in case you have not noticed. We could well be lurching to a recession ,or even a depression.

You continue to talk up the prospect of Iran backing down. When there is a fanatical leadership, backed by a fanatical IRGC, IMO that is wishful thinking.

36 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

"it will be a joint action undertaken with an international agreement led by the GCC,"

I had to laugh at that post, when the whole mess was initiated by someone who sought agreement from nobody.

1 minute ago, Lacessit said:

The world is hurting, in case you have not noticed. We could well be lurching to a recession ,or even a depression.

You continue to talk up the prospect of Iran backing down. When there is a fanatical leadership, backed by a fanatical IRGC, IMO that is wishful thinking.

I had to laugh at that post, when the whole mess was initiated by someone who sought agreement from nobody.

The Gulf Arabs supported the intervention. They knew about it and could have stopped it. In a region that leaks information, there were no leaks. Even if one wants to say the war came as a surprise, the Gulf Arabs could have stopped the Israeli over flights or at the very least made a fuss. It is easy to blame Trump and Israel, but they were not alone and could not have done this without the intelligence and tacit co-operation of the Arab world.

The Gulf Arabs don't need the permission of the western world to defend themselves from the extortion of Iran.

2 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

The Gulf Arabs supported the intervention. They knew about it and could have stopped it. In a region that leaks information, there were no leaks. Even if one wants to say the war came as a surprise, the Gulf Arabs could have stopped the Israeli over flights or at the very least made a fuss. It is easy to blame Trump and Israel, but they were not alone and could not have done this without the intelligence and tacit co-operation of the Arab world.

The Gulf Arabs don't need the permission of the western world to defend themselves from the extortion of Iran.

They have no choice but to step up now. Iran can choke them to death with thirst, simply by going after their desalination plants.

So if they knew about it beforehand, why would they be furious with the USA when the Strait of Hormuz was blocked? No-one needed to be Nostradamus to predict that would happen.

IIRC the top military brass advised Trump it was a risky operation, and he would not listen.

20 hours ago, candide said:

Currently, the almighty US navy/army is unable to do that. Adding a few UAE or European forces won't change much.

But that would certainly change the geopolitical situation greatly, likely never to recover.

18 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

I take it the UAE want ‘third country nationals’ doing the ‘by force’ bit.

Most of the Gulf states rely on foreign nationals in their militaries. The UAE more than most. Obviously, you will get a lot of British and Americans serving as officers; until quite recently, all the Omani Navy officers were British. My father served, at the same time, the British Army and the Bahrain Defence Force, wearing BDF uniform, BDF rank, BDF CO, but paid by London.

The UAE also employs hundreds of Colombians; not men in command positions, but foot soldiers. Then there are the Pakistanis, Jordanians and Sunni Syrians. (Salafist Syrians). Jordanians and Balochs from Pakistan have been a feaure since the 1970s. Jordanian soldiers are good disciplined soldiers, and Jordan is a poor country. The Arabs like the Jordanians because they are Arab, the right religion and follow orders. The Balochs come from a discriminated minority, and have engaged for years in an insurgency in both Pakistan and Iran. The Balochs and Syrians I would call the cut-throats. What obscures them is that service in these militaries also results in naturalisation. Countries like Bahrain have significant Shia populations, so they have used passports to socially engineer the population. Bring in more Syrians as soldiers, policemen, give them a Bahraini passport. Now they are Bahraini Sunni. At one point, someone was running around in Bahrain with a ISIS flag hanging from their pickup. Thats bad enough, but it was in Hamed Town, a new town built to house the police and their families.

Its easy to forget none of the Gulf States are by any stretch of the imagination, democracies. The government policy is the ruling family policy. The major reason why the Gulf States supported, morally and financially, Iraq's invasion of Iran, it wasn't because they feared an Iranian military conquest. They feared that if Iran defeated Iraq, it would inspire their own populations to rise up. The Gulf Armed forces are mostly configured to quell internal dissent. Jordanians are liked because they will follow orders to fire into a crowd. Balouchis are liked because they can be relied to to go nuts when required.

After 40+ years of mostly the British and American navies conducting minesweeping missions in the Persian Gulf, how many minesweepers do the Gulf navies possess? Nne. How many are on order? Zero. That tells you about their actual commitment.

The chatter from the UAE about suddently wanting to fight is likely because they have gotten wind that the Americans might go for Abu Musa island, which had been seized by the Shah of Iran when the UAE gained independance. If that happens, what you will see is some group of pot bellied Emiratis in Gucci kit and wrap arounds making a big deal of raising the flag. The UAE is a little different from the other Gulf states in that it is the "United Arab Emirates", essentially a coalition of 7 Emirates, each with their own Sheikh. An Emir or Sheikh isn't exactly a King; Afghanistan is now an Emirate. It really means the strongest bloke in charge. These Sheikh form a council, and between themselves, elect a President. They rule by handing out favours. By having lots of money is pretty much the only way they stay in power. Importing loads of foreigners to do the graft ensures UAE citizens have a nice life with plenty of well paying non-jobs where they get to manage a few Indians, Pakistanis, Yemenis.

4 hours ago, Patong2021 said:

The Gulf Arabs supported the intervention. They knew about it and could have stopped it. In a region that leaks information, there were no leaks. Even if one wants to say the war came as a surprise, the Gulf Arabs could have stopped the Israeli over flights or at the very least made a fuss. It is easy to blame Trump and Israel, but they were not alone and could not have done this without the intelligence and tacit co-operation of the Arab world.

The Gulf Arabs don't need the permission of the western world to defend themselves from the extortion of Iran.

You conflating the wishes of the Bedu tribes that rule these countries, with the views on the street, which are more complex. They hate Iran, they detest Israel. They tolerate Infidels.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260327-bahrain-cracks-down-on-shia-dissent-as-iran-war-tests-kingdom

Iran has justified its attacks on its neighbours by saying it is targeting US military bases, though civilian infrastructure has also been hit.

Israel and the United States "both started this war and dragged the countries of the region into this", Hussain, a 31-year-old Shia Bahraini told AFP.

Both the war and the government's crackdown threaten to reignite old grievances.

Protests demanding an elected government rocked the archipelago in 2011, at the height of the Arab Spring uprising sweeping through the region.

The protests in Bahrain sparked a major crackdown on dissent, with Manama blaming the uprising on Iran and accusing it of trying to overthrow the government.

Iran at the time denied any involvement in the movement.

While broader unrest is unlikely this time, Diwan said the war "may reignite some of the ugly sectarianism" seen previously in Bahrain.

Fateel said pro-government Bahrainis were going after Shia activists online, warning a sectarian backlash was already underway.

"I have received threats from online trolls... I could be arrested at any moment simply for expressing my opinion," he said.

Bahrain is the most liberal of the Gulf states. Its the only place where you have ever seen protest against the government.

The Manama government might have a point about Iran, but it doesn't take much in Bahrain really to get people out. There is a side that Expats never see.

5 hours ago, Roadsternut said:

You conflating the wishes of the Bedu tribes that rule these countries, with the views on the street, which are more complex. They hate Iran, they detest Israel. They tolerate Infidels.

\

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260327-bahrain-cracks-down-on-shia-dissent-as-iran-war-tests-kingdom

Bahrain is the most liberal of the Gulf states. Its the only place where you have ever seen protest against the government.

The Manama government might have a point about Iran, but it doesn't take much in Bahrain really to get people out. There is a side that Expats never see.

When is the last time you have been in the UAE with actual citizens, and not in one of the western ghettos? Israeli agricultural produce is more readily available in the UAE than in some European cities. The UAE has invested in education; Its people are well off, there is no decay and ruin as seen in European cities like London. No one is looting the M&S shops like they did in Clapham last weekend. The Gulf Arabs have moved on and don't lose sleep over Israel quite the way western "progressives" and Greta's people do. Iran has fired 1200+ missiles at the UAE to date, not Israel.

Whether or not Bahrain is "liberal" doesn't matter. The country has seen the Iranians and Hezbollah try to incite a violent insurrection. To them, Iran is synonymous with terrorism and destruction. Iranian missiles are attacking their country, not Israeli or American.

It won't help. And it might make things worse. The US has shown itself to be completely impotent, when it comes to the single most important aspect of this war.

Surely they must have considered the possibility that Iran would do this?

They cannot be that dumb. Could they have been that blinded by hubris?

Could they have planned this so poorly?

Could making a fairly dimwitted man who would not qualify to lead a County Cub Scout chapter the SEC DEF have been a historic mistake?

Could they have completely forgotten how badly they got their butts whooped in Iraq and Afghanistan?

Might it not have occurred to them that the last war the US won was in 1945? And that war could not have been won without all of the allied forces and millions of soldiers on the ground, for many years.

On 4/2/2026 at 4:25 PM, PhilipHabib said:

belief in CNN again ?

Half of them would not fight even if they had that many troop.

Wrong. They would sacrifice their lives for the cause. The degree to which the US has alienated the average Iranian is a huge problem. Nearly every aspect of this "excursion" has been a mistake. This will NOT end well for the US, and this was a huuuuge mistake for Israel, who were already on very, very thin ice.

6 hours ago, Roadsternut said:

Most of the Gulf states rely on foreign nationals in their militaries. The UAE more than most. Obviously, you will get a lot of British and Americans serving as officers; until quite recently, all the Omani Navy officers were British. My father served, at the same time, the British Army and the Bahrain Defence Force, wearing BDF uniform, BDF rank, BDF CO, but paid by London.

The UAE also employs hundreds of Colombians; not men in command positions, but foot soldiers. Then there are the Pakistanis, Jordanians and Sunni Syrians. (Salafist Syrians). Jordanians and Balochs from Pakistan have been a feaure since the 1970s. Jordanian soldiers are good disciplined soldiers, and Jordan is a poor country. The Arabs like the Jordanians because they are Arab, the right religion and follow orders. The Balochs come from a discriminated minority, and have engaged for years in an insurgency in both Pakistan and Iran. The Balochs and Syrians I would call the cut-throats. What obscures them is that service in these militaries also results in naturalisation. Countries like Bahrain have significant Shia populations, so they have used passports to socially engineer the population. Bring in more Syrians as soldiers, policemen, give them a Bahraini passport. Now they are Bahraini Sunni. At one point, someone was running around in Bahrain with a ISIS flag hanging from their pickup. Thats bad enough, but it was in Hamed Town, a new town built to house the police and their families.

Its easy to forget none of the Gulf States are by any stretch of the imagination, democracies. The government policy is the ruling family policy. The major reason why the Gulf States supported, morally and financially, Iraq's invasion of Iran, it wasn't because they feared an Iranian military conquest. They feared that if Iran defeated Iraq, it would inspire their own populations to rise up. The Gulf Armed forces are mostly configured to quell internal dissent. Jordanians are liked because they will follow orders to fire into a crowd. Balouchis are liked because they can be relied to to go nuts when required.

After 40+ years of mostly the British and American navies conducting minesweeping missions in the Persian Gulf, how many minesweepers do the Gulf navies possess? Nne. How many are on order? Zero. That tells you about their actual commitment.

The chatter from the UAE about suddently wanting to fight is likely because they have gotten wind that the Americans might go for Abu Musa island, which had been seized by the Shah of Iran when the UAE gained independance. If that happens, what you will see is some group of pot bellied Emiratis in Gucci kit and wrap arounds making a big deal of raising the flag. The UAE is a little different from the other Gulf states in that it is the "United Arab Emirates", essentially a coalition of 7 Emirates, each with their own Sheikh. An Emir or Sheikh isn't exactly a King; Afghanistan is now an Emirate. It really means the strongest bloke in charge. These Sheikh form a council, and between themselves, elect a President. They rule by handing out favours. By having lots of money is pretty much the only way they stay in power. Importing loads of foreigners to do the graft ensures UAE citizens have a nice life with plenty of well paying non-jobs where they get to manage a few Indians, Pakistanis, Yemenis.

Excellent post. Likely spot on. Good info.