Why Tehran can still fight back despite crushing airstrikes

Weeks of heavy bombardment by the United States and Israel have battered Iran — but Tehran’s unconventional war strategy may allow it to keep the fight going far longer than Washington expects.

US President Donald Trump insists victory is close, declaring that Iranian military forces have suffered “devastating” losses. Yet analysts warn that Iran’s real strength lies not in conventional armies, but in a decades-old doctrine built around asymmetric warfare.

Airstrikes Cripple Iran’s Conventional Forces

Since the conflict erupted in late February, US and Israeli forces say they have struck more than 13,000 targets across Iran.

According to the Israel Defense Forces, roughly 80% of Iran’s air defence systems have been destroyed. Naval facilities, missile factories and military bases have also been heavily damaged.

The leadership has been shaken as well. Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei was killed early in the conflict, with power reportedly passing to his son Mojtaba Khamenei — though his public absence has fuelled speculation about the regime’s stability.

Decades of Planning for a Weaker War

Despite the damage, Tehran’s strategy was designed precisely for such a scenario.

After the 1979 revolution and subsequent arms embargoes, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps built a doctrine focused on cheaper weapons, proxy fighters and unconventional tactics.

This approach expanded into a network combining drones, cyber warfare and allied militias across the region.

Cheap Drones, Expensive Defences

Central to that strategy is the widespread use of loitering drones such as the Shahed‑136 drone.

Each drone costs only tens of thousands of dollars but can travel thousands of kilometres and carry explosive payloads. Intercepting them can require sophisticated air defence missiles costing millions.

Iran has launched thousands during the conflict, overwhelming air defences through sheer numbers.

The Hormuz Pressure Point

Geography gives Tehran another powerful lever: the Strait of Hormuz.

Roughly 20% of the world’s oil passes through the narrow waterway. Even sporadic attacks with drones, naval mines and speedboats can disrupt global energy flows and rattle markets.

Military analysts say fully reopening the strait would likely require a massive ground operation along Iran’s coastline — something Washington has shown little appetite for.

Survival, Not Victory

For Tehran, the strategic objective may be simple: survive.

As long as Iran can maintain a credible threat to global shipping and regional security, it retains leverage. That reality complicates any quick victory narrative — and suggests the war could grind on far longer than leaders in Washington predicted.

How long can Iran's asymmetric strategy hold?