Is Abhisit Vejjajiva Thailand's Next Leader?

[LaoPo]

Is Abhisit Vejjajiva Thailand's Next Leader?

Current front-runner Abhisit Vejjajiva of the Democrats

October 1973: a 9-year-old boy, cloistered in a Bangkok compound, flips on the television. No cartoons for him. Instead, the box broadcasts images of Thai students and workers flooding nearby streets to protest the autocratic generals ruling their nation. The boy finds the scenes enthralling, sparking a political awakening unusual in any kid, much less the scion of a privileged Thai-Chinese family. Just three years later, a violent military crackdown would bring this brief experiment in Thai democracy to an end. But by that point, the boy, Abhisit Vejjajiva, was studying overseas in Britain. "I experienced the optimism of the 1973 democratic revolution, but I wasn't there for the disillusionment of the 1976 massacre," recalls Abhisit, who at age 27 was voted in as one of Thailand's youngest-ever parliamentarians. "Maybe that's what made me believe in the power of politics."

Meet the idealist who may well become Thailand's next Prime Minister. As head of Thailand's oldest political party, the Democrats, Abhisit has emerged as an early front-runner in elections slated for December. Yet history has taken an ironic twist for the now 43-year-old politician. The upcoming polls are the handiwork of the very military whose overthrow spurred Abhisit's political passions more than three decades ago. After deposing Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in a bloodless army coup last September, Thailand's ruling junta promised to restore democracy by the end of this year. Now that the new constitution overseen by the generals has won a 58% approval rating in a referendum on Aug. 19, the junta appears committed to carrying out its pledge to hold elections by year's end. But Thaksin, who has been charged with corruption, is in exile, living mostly in London, while top members of his Thai Rak Thai Party have been banned from politics after a junta-appointed tribunal convicted them of electoral fraud in May. That leaves the Democrats in their strongest position since losing power to Thaksin back in 2001. Hardly a cocky politician, Abhisit is predicting success in December. "I believe that democracy will reward the Democrats," he says with a bashful grin. "Of course, you could say the same about the Democrats in America, too. Maybe we'll have both dreams come true."

With his youthful charm, Oxford University pedigree and policy geek's exuberance for subjects as esoteric as tapioca-derived alternative fuel and campaign-finance reform, Abhisit resembles a certain heavyweight from the U.S. Democratic Party. But there's one big difference: unlike Bill Clinton, Abhisit didn't grow up in trailer-park country. Although the patrician Thai Democrat can count on support from the urban middle class, as well as residents of Thailand's largely Muslim south, Abhisit will have a tougher time convincing the rural masses that he feels their pain. Thailand's agrarian northeast, in particular, was the voting bloc that delivered a huge mandate to Prime Minister Thaksin in 2001, after he campaigned on an avowedly populist platform. Indeed, on Aug. 19, 62% of northeastern Thais voted against the draft constitution, a rejection not only of the charter but of the generals who ousted the man they still consider their champion. "Bridging this [urban-rural] divide is Abhisit's biggest challenge," says Chaiwat Satha-Anand, a political scientist at Bangkok's Thammasat University. Even Abhisit, who is trying to court farmers with promises of free education and low-cost health care, acknowledges an old Thai proverb: "Rural voters elect governments; urban voters get rid of them."

Complicating matters is Thailand's perennial wild card: the military. Shortly after seizing power, coup leader General Sonthi Boonyaratglin reiterated that he had no interest in remaining in politics after elections were held. Earlier this summer, however, a junta aide hinted that perhaps Sonthi might throw his hat in the ring. The general hasn't committed so far. Still, after casting his yes vote in the constitutional referendum in the province of Lop Buri, Sonthi did let slip that if he were to run, this military stronghold where he was once posted as major-general would be the place he'd like to represent. But if Sonthi does enter the race, he could end up delivering the election to the very forces he tried to suppress with last year's coup. "No one who supported Thaksin is going to vote for the general," says Sunai Phasuk, Thailand consultant for New York City-based Human Rights Watch. "So if Sonthi is going to steal votes from any camp, it could be from Abhisit's base." The possible beneficiaries of an army candidacy? Refugees from Thaksin's now dissolved party who have banded together with an unlikely coalition of ultraconservatives and democracy activists to form the People's Power Party.

Even if Abhisit wins in December, he won't wield as much power as did Thaksin. When the generals seized control of Thailand last year, they ripped up the previous constitution. The replacement rolls back the executive branch's influence and calls for nearly half the senate to be appointed instead of elected as before. The military is also given certain supervisory powers over the democratically elected leader. The upshot: Thailand could soon return to days when weak coalition governments rose and fell with the predictability of the monsoons.

Abhisit proposes to fix that by amending the constitution should he assume the PM post. That could mean yet another referendum. "I have faith that the electorate will do what's right," he says, surprising words perhaps for a Bangkok patrician whose party was overwhelmed by Thaksin's populist tactics six years ago. Whatever happens, at least one former Prime Minister is confident about Thailand's future. "We're good at improvising," says Anand Panyarachun, who steered the nation during two separate stints in the early 1990s. "We may not be as systematic as some other countries in our democracy, but we'll figure out a way forward." A certain candidate, remembering his political awakening as a 9-year-old boy, would no doubt agree.

From: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/...655420,00.html#

LaoPo

[Sanpatong]

Is Abhisit Vejjajiva Thailand's Next Leader?

I can answer that: No.

He may very well be Thailand's next "sock puppet heading the visible part of government", though.

I hope he enjoys the experience. Dance Pinocchio, dance!

Edited August 24, 2007 by Sanpatong

[jumnien]

I think there is too little time for Abhisit to become a general before the next election. He doesn't meet the stringent requirements, does he?

[Jingthing]

He would be my pick if I were Thai. So he will probably lose.

[samran]

I don't think you become a leader of a poltical party anywhere without being a bit of a pr!ck and an arseh0le behind the scenes, which is needed at the top in poltics. He does have the intellect and the public service ideals to lead the country and do it well, if he can bring people along with him.

But, does he have the numbers in terms of financial backing and votes? I dunno.

[kmart]

Have to agree with the other cynics^^, that he probably will never wield any great power here. Shame really, especially when you hear about the likes of old Neanderthals like Chevalit wanting to get their noses back in the trough.

[chevykanteve]

One suspects he's been groomed for the position, which is why the Democrat Party wasn't dissolved along with TRT. He would make a credible "front man" for the real powers-at-be. Samak's PPP will probably not even have a chance to run in the election: "legal reasons" will surface regarding its disqualification. Ofcourse, this is just somoot wah....

[Jingthing]

I must be really naive. I have read alot about Abhisit before. He sounds like a really good man with a really new kind of politics for Thailand. It wouldn't be his fault if he is elected and can't do anything because the game is stacked against anyone doing anything.

Edited August 24, 2007 by Jingthing

[Captain Chaos]

No, because the Democrats team still looks very weak, even after the dissolution of TRT ...

... which is a shame because, as I understand it, he isn't supposed to be a corrupt thieving git

[Sanpatong]

Yeah, absolutely ANYONE I'd prefer over Chavalit. Real power/real leader or not. That man honestly couldn't put two words together without making an utter fool of himself.

For those who don't remember Chavvy, I include a picture for reference.

Chavalit Yongchayudh

[roietjimmy]

The nation website has a poll on "Who Do You Think Will Become The Next Prime Minister". Abhisit is on the list of choices along with the other usual suspects. Results to be posted on Monday.

As much as I would like to see him become the next PM, it is not likely to happen. Perception he is "too young" seems the concern of Thais I have spoken with. As others have noted in this OP, he is being groomed and will get his chance. Let's just hope the "grooming" doesn't pull him down to the level the groomers have achieved!

[tijnebijn]

Yeah, absolutely ANYONE I'd prefer over Chavalit. Real power/real leader or not. That man honestly couldn't put two words together without making an utter fool of himself.

For those who don't remember Chavvy, I include a picture for reference.

Chavalit Yongchayudh

No honoustly I think if the Bankokians give Abhisit a fair chance and vote for him more then the last time they did ,

they will have a fair chance .

By the way the picture from Chavalit is striking .

Also could be Samak though.

[Ricardo]

One suspects he's been groomed for the position, which is why the Democrat Party wasn't dissolved along with TRT. He would make a credible "front man" for the real powers-at-be. Samak's PPP will probably not even have a chance to run in the election: "legal reasons" will surface regarding its disqualification. Ofcourse, this is just somoot wah....

I suspect that it has more to do with the fact that, unlike Thai-Rak-Thai, the Democrats didn't try to 'rig' the previous election. In fact, they stood aside, and refused to participate in the farce.

But I agree that he looks too intelligent & honest to stand a very large chance of winning.

[pete_r]

Is Abhisit Vejjajiva Thailand's Next Leader?

He is a nice modern-looking front face for the Democrats, but he is too young to be a leader in Thailand. Even if he is elected, chances are that he will have to do as the older brothers in the party say.

[Old Man River]

I don't think you become a leader of a poltical party anywhere without being a bit of a pr!ck and an arseh0le behind the scenes, which is needed at the top in poltics. He does have the intellect and the public service ideals to lead the country and do it well, if he can bring people along with him.

But, does he have the numbers in terms of financial backing and votes? I dunno.

He has the financial backing, but on the votes issue I also dunno.

[Old Man River]

Is Abhisit Vejjajiva Thailand's Next Leader?

Even if he is elected, chances are that he will have to do as the older brothers in the party say.

While I don't think this is the case, if it is, the problem with this is what?