Trump needs a deal — but Tehran knows it holds the leverage

The fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran is holding, but only just. Behind closed doors, diplomats are scrambling to prevent a return to open conflict while both sides continue to exchange threats and maintain military pressure across the Gulf.

For President Donald Trump, the stakes are rising. He needs stability, lower energy prices and a diplomatic breakthrough. Iran appears determined to make all three difficult.

A Ceasefire Without Trust

Negotiations mediated by regional powers have continued despite ongoing military incidents. Neither Washington nor Tehran appears eager to resume full-scale war, but neither is prepared to back down.

The US retains overwhelming military firepower in the region. Iran, meanwhile, has used the pause to regroup, repair damaged infrastructure and reinforce its message that further pressure will be met with resistance.

The Strait That Holds the World Hostage

At the centre of the crisis lies the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important energy chokepoints.

With shipping traffic severely disrupted, global markets are feeling the strain. Oil and gas supplies remain constrained, driving economic uncertainty far beyond the Middle East. While America is less dependent on Gulf energy than in previous decades, US consumers are still exposed to rising global prices.

Reopening the waterway has become a diplomatic and economic imperative.

Tehran Raises the Price

Iran is signalling that any meaningful progress will require concessions.

Sanctions relief, access to frozen assets and broader political guarantees are all potential bargaining chips. Tehran believes it has survived the military phase of the confrontation and now enters negotiations from a position stronger than many in Washington expected.

That reality is creating a difficult calculation for the White House.

Trump Caught Between Politics and Reality

The president faces pressure from multiple directions. Republican hawks oppose major concessions, while voters have little appetite for another prolonged conflict in the Middle East.

At the same time, Trump cannot easily sell a compromise that resembles the nuclear diplomacy pursued by Barack Obama, a policy he spent years attacking.

The War’s Miscalculation Comes Due

The central assumption behind the campaign was that military pressure would force Iran's leadership to yield quickly.

Instead, Tehran endured the strikes, kept key elements of its state intact and demonstrated an ability to disrupt regional stability. Gulf states now face years of economic uncertainty, investors are nervous and energy markets remain fragile.

The war may have paused, but the strategic consequences are only beginning to unfold. For Washington, ending the conflict is proving far harder than starting it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cedp3lee059o