Putin won’t budge but is Russia tiring of war?

Vladimir Putin remains as defiant as ever over Ukraine. No retreat. No regret. No sign of compromise. Yet beneath the Kremlin's hard-line message, there are growing hints that a debate may finally be emerging inside Russia over how much longer this war can continue.

The latest evidence came as Russia launched another huge missile and drone barrage across Ukraine this week. The strikes landed on the eve of the annual St Petersburg International Economic Forum, an event designed to present Russia as open for business to the world.

Despite more than four years of war, Moscow pressed ahead with the attacks. For many observers, it was another sign that Putin remains determined to pursue his military campaign regardless of the economic or diplomatic costs.

Russia's uncompromising mood has become part of its public identity. Veteran singer Nadezhda Babkina summed up that spirit after receiving an award from Putin in the Kremlin.

"Russia will never surrender thanks to our remarkable, multi-ethnic genetic code," she declared. Those who disagreed, she added, "can go and poison themselves."

The message echoed the Kremlin's broader stance: unapologetic, unrepentant and unwilling to back down.

Putin's position on Ukraine has barely shifted since the invasion began. He continues to demand that Ukraine hand over the entire Donbas region to Russia. There is still no indication that he is prepared to abandon those goals.

Yet one important change has taken place inside the Kremlin's thinking — and it concerns US President Donald Trump.

Last year, Russian officials appeared convinced that Trump would help deliver a peace settlement favourable to Moscow. Following last summer's summit between Trump and Putin in Anchorage, Alaska, Russian officials repeatedly praised what they called the "spirit of Anchorage."

The expectation was clear. Many in Moscow believed Washington would pressure Kyiv into accepting Russia's demands.

But that breakthrough never arrived.

Recently, Putin's foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov appeared to distance himself from the phrase altogether.

"I don't know about the spirit of Anchorage," Ushakov told Russian state television. "I have never used that phrase."

The remark fuelled speculation that Russian hopes tied to Anchorage have faded. It also highlighted growing frustration inside the Kremlin as the war drags on.

What Putin expected to be a short "special military operation" has become a grinding war of attrition now entering its fifth year.

Since February 2022, Russia has suffered major battlefield losses. Its economy has come under pressure. Technological development has been hampered. Thousands of international sanctions remain in place.

The conflict has also reached deeper into Russian territory.

Ukrainian drones now regularly strike targets inside Russia. Oil refineries and energy infrastructure face repeated attacks. Last month, a large-scale drone assault on the Moscow region exposed vulnerabilities in air defences surrounding the capital.

Security concerns even affected Russia's Victory Day celebrations on 9 May. The annual parade in Red Square was scaled back amid fears of possible attacks.

Economic challenges continue to mount. Russia's budget deficit has grown while economic stagnation has become an increasing concern.

Yet Moscow's response has not been to reduce military operations.

Instead, recent weeks have seen an escalation in air attacks on Ukrainian cities.

The Kremlin argues it is responding to Ukrainian actions. Russian officials cited a strike on a college dormitory in Starobilsk, in occupied eastern Ukraine, where official figures claimed 21 students were killed.

Ukraine's military said it struck the headquarters of Russia's elite Rubicon drone unit in Starobilsk. It has not confirmed whether that was the same building referenced by Russian authorities.

As fighting intensifies, prospects for peace appear distant.

Attention is now turning to the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, where Putin is expected to meet international media leaders and deliver a keynote speech.

Many will be watching closely for any hint of a shift on Ukraine. So far, none has emerged.

However, inside Russia, something unusual is happening.

Despite the country's tightly controlled media environment, voices are beginning to question whether the war can realistically achieve its stated goals.

Political scientist Vasily Kashin recently wrote that removing what Moscow calls the "anti-Russian regime" in Ukraine would require the complete military occupation of the country, including western regions. He argued such an outcome is technically impossible for Russia.

Meanwhile, political commentator Alexander Nosovich said experts are increasingly divided between those who want to continue the war and those who fear an endless conflict.

Lawyer Dmitry Krasnov went even further. Writing in a Russian newspaper, he argued that lost wars and humiliating truces have sometimes led to reforms and future successes throughout Russian history.

Such arguments are striking in a country where national identity is closely tied to victory and military success.

Yet the limits of debate remain clear.

When an attempt was later made to revisit Krasnov's article online, readers were greeted with a simple message: "Error 404. Page not found."

The discussion may be growing. But in Putin's Russia, it appears there are still boundaries that cannot be crossed.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy82339793go