Hegseth’s defence demand sparks fears of Asian arms race

A blunt call from US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth for Asian allies to spend 3.5% of GDP on defence has sent shockwaves through Southeast Asia, raising fears of a costly military build-up that could destabilise one of the world's most economically dynamic regions.

The demand, delivered at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, has intensified a growing debate over whether Washington's strategy is strengthening regional security or pushing allies towards an expensive and potentially dangerous arms race.

Asean’s Balancing Act Comes Under Pressure

For decades, Southeast Asia has relied on diplomacy, economic integration and dialogue to maintain stability among rival powers.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) has positioned itself as a bridge between competing global interests, bringing together countries that might otherwise struggle to share the same table. Its model has prioritised negotiation over confrontation and economic growth over military expansion.

Hegseth's message challenged that approach directly. Calling for "more combat power" and fewer conferences, he signalled a sharper US focus on military preparedness across the region.

The Bill Could Be Enormous

Meeting Washington's target would require several major Southeast Asian nations to dramatically increase defence spending.

Countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines would need to more than double current military budgets. Critics warn that money redirected into weapons systems would inevitably come at the expense of healthcare, education and infrastructure at a time when economic growth is already under pressure.

The concern is not simply financial. In countries where armed forces retain significant political influence, larger defence budgets could strengthen military establishments while weakening civilian institutions.

Economic Risks Meet Strategic Anxiety

The timing is particularly sensitive. Southeast Asian economies are grappling with trade uncertainty, slowing global demand and wider geopolitical instability.

Analysts warn that weaker growth combined with rising defence costs could fuel domestic unrest and political instability. Governments facing economic strain may become more vulnerable to nationalist pressures or internal tensions.

A Bigger Question for Washington

The debate ultimately extends beyond defence spending. If both the United States and its partners continue increasing military budgets, regional leaders are asking a fundamental question: towards what end?

With Washington and Beijing attempting to maintain guardrails in their relationship, some policymakers fear that an escalating military build-up could create new risks without providing clear answers. For Southeast Asia, the challenge is no longer just balancing great powers. It is avoiding becoming trapped between them.

Bangkok Post - A dangerous call to arms for Asean