Nato Allies Warn of Possible Russian Baltic Provocation

Two NATO countries on the alliance's eastern flank have warned that Russia may be preparing a limited military provocation against the Baltic states or Poland in what they believe could be an attempt to test NATO's unity rather than launch a full-scale attack.

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The warnings come as Russia faces mounting pressure from Ukraine's expanding long-range strike campaign, which has increasingly reached targets near Moscow and St. Petersburg. Western officials fear the Kremlin could seek alternative ways to shift the course of the war as its offensive in Ukraine continues to lose momentum.

On Monday, Latvia's intelligence service said it had identified signs that Russia was preparing military provocations against the Baltic states or Poland. Officials stressed they did not believe Moscow had the capability to open a second conventional front but warned of possible hybrid operations.

Intelligence warnings emerge

A senior political source from another NATO country offered a similar assessment, saying intelligence suggested Russian President Vladimir Putin was planning "something against the Baltic states." The source said Moscow could seek to test U.S. willingness to defend Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, some of the alliance's smallest members, as Russia struggles to achieve its objectives in Ukraine.

The warnings were not accompanied by the detailed intelligence disclosures seen before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, when Western agencies publicly outlined Moscow's military preparations.

Fears of hybrid attacks

Latvian intelligence said Russia was more likely to carry out hybrid operations than launch a conventional assault.

According to the agency, these could include missile or drone attacks, or other limited actions intended to signal that continued Western support for Ukraine could bring direct consequences for NATO countries bordering Russia.

Security analysts say the reports reflect growing concern that the Kremlin could broaden tensions beyond Ukraine if battlefield progress continues to stall.

Keir Giles, a Russia specialist at Chatham House, said Moscow would likely seek opportunities to disrupt the current trajectory of the conflict through "horizontal escalation" by extending pressure to other countries.

Ukraine steps up pressure

Russia's vulnerabilities have also become more visible in recent days. This week, drone relay stations in Belarus reportedly stopped operating after Ukraine threatened to target them. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had warned Belarus that the equipment was supporting Russian attacks on Ukraine.

One Telegram channel claimed authorities in Belarus's Brest and Gomel regions ordered mobile operators to dismantle the relay equipment, citing interference with grouse nesting areas.

Ukraine has steadily expanded its domestically developed long-range strike capability, enabling attacks up to 2,000 kilometres inside Russia. Last week, nearly 200 Ukrainian drones struck multiple locations around Moscow, including an oil refinery, leaving parts of the capital covered in falling oil residue.

A Western military source said there was concern Russia could respond unpredictably if Putin felt increasing pressure as the conflict reached major Russian cities.

"I cannot lie, that is a period of danger," the source said.

NATO monitors escalation risks

The latest concerns come ahead of NATO's annual summit in Ankara, Turkey, amid continued questions over the United States' long-term commitment to the alliance. On Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump said he was disappointed that European allies had not permitted American aircraft to use their bases for strikes against Iran.

Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, European countries have accused Moscow of carrying out repeated sabotage and hybrid operations. These have included firebombs hidden in DHL parcels sent through the United Kingdom, Poland and Germany during 2024.

Last September, 19 Russian decoy drones entered Polish airspace, prompting NATO to scramble fighter jets while authorities advised residents in three eastern provinces to seek shelter.

Western governments voiced similar concerns in late 2022 after Russian setbacks in Ukraine's Kharkiv region raised fears that Moscow might consider using nuclear weapons. However, no evidence emerged of preparations for such a move, and the frontline later stabilised.

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Adapted by ASEAN Now. Source 26 June 2026

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