More than four years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, one question continues to overshadow the conflict: how does it end? Increasingly, analysts argue there may never be a formal peace settlement, with the most likely outcome instead resembling a long-term frozen conflict rather than a decisive victory for either side.

A War That May Never Officially End

Anti-corruption campaigner Sir Bill Browder believes President Vladimir Putin is unlikely ever to sign a peace treaty. Speaking to The Independent's World of Trouble podcast, Browder argued the Kremlin leader sees compromise as an existential threat to his grip on power.

According to Browder, Putin's political survival depends on projecting strength. He suggested the Russian president is more likely to prolong the conflict than accept terms that could be viewed as a defeat, even if the military and economic costs continue to rise.

Frozen Conflict Emerges as Likely Outcome

Instead of a negotiated settlement, Browder believes the war could gradually evolve into a heavily militarised stalemate similar to the decades-long stand-off between North and South Korea. Hostilities could diminish while no formal peace agreement is ever reached.

Such an outcome would leave Ukraine and Russia technically at war, but with front lines largely stabilised. It would also allow both governments to maintain their competing territorial claims while avoiding a wider escalation.

Pressure Builds Inside Russia

The economic strain on Russia is becoming increasingly visible, with fuel shortages and growing pressure on key industries exposing the costs of sustaining the war. Some analysts believe unease is spreading among sections of the Russian elite, although hardliners continue to demand an even more aggressive military campaign.

A collapse of Putin's government remains one possible endgame, but experts warn it could create fresh instability inside the world's largest nuclear power, making any transition highly unpredictable.

Ukraine Looks Beyond the Battlefield

Even without a formal peace deal, Ukraine could continue integrating with Europe while strengthening its military and economic position. Supporters argue that deeper ties with the European Union and long-term Western security cooperation could enable Kyiv to prosper despite an unresolved conflict.

For now, however, the war shows few signs of ending. As diplomacy remains stalled and both sides prepare for a prolonged struggle, the prospect of a frozen conflict is increasingly being viewed as the least dangerous path through Europe's most devastating war in generations.

Is there a way out of Vladimir Putin’s forever war?

That‘s an interesting POV.

To spin further thoughts on this, I see similarities…

• South and North Korea

• Ukraine and Russia

…are mentioned. What about:

• Iran and USA

• Taiwan and China

The last line above would only be realistic as long as the US would keep supporting Taiwan.

Wich could result in a war between the US and China.

Just spinning some thoughts.