Putin's exit won't end Russia's crisis, expert warns

Russia's biggest challenge may begin only after Vladimir Putin leaves power, according to Russian journalist and author Maxim Trudolyubov, who argues that the battle over the country's future will be fought as much over legitimacy and property as politics.

In an essay published by Meduza, Trudolyubov suggests that any post-Putin transition could expose deep divisions over who has the right to shape a new Russia, warning that replacing one form of authoritarianism with another remains a real risk.

Competing Claims to Russia's Future

Trudolyubov argues that modern Russia is split between two competing visions of citizenship. One is represented by dissidents, political prisoners and opposition figures who openly challenged the Kremlin despite severe personal consequences.

The other consists of those who remained in Russia, maintaining businesses, homes and family lives while navigating an increasingly authoritarian system. He argues both groups have legitimate claims to influence the country's future, despite their vastly different experiences during Putin's rule.

Property Could Become the Next Flashpoint

According to Trudolyubov, disputes over ownership may prove even more divisive than political reform. Russia's economy contains businesses and assets accumulated over decades alongside wealth acquired through wartime redistribution and state favouritism.

He warns that any future government will face difficult decisions over which property rights should be protected and which could be challenged. For many Russians, preserving what they have built may take priority over another sweeping redistribution of wealth.

Elite Confidence Under Pressure

The essay also argues that the war has eroded confidence among parts of Russia's political and business elite. Trudolyubov suggests that growing state intervention, nationalisations and pressure on private assets have weakened the belief that the Kremlin can guarantee economic stability.

While many influential figures remain publicly loyal, he contends that increasing uncertainty may quietly encourage support for a more predictable political order.

A Warning Against Repeating History

Rather than pursuing another politically driven redistribution of wealth after Putin, Trudolyubov argues that Russia should focus on rebuilding independent institutions, restoring the rule of law and protecting legitimate property rights.

He concludes that the country's long-term stability will depend not simply on who succeeds Putin, but on whether any future leadership can replace arbitrary power with durable legal institutions and avoid repeating the cycles that have shaped modern Russian politics.

Expert predicts what will happen with Russia when Putin is gone - and it’s not good