Thailand likely to leave US currency monitoring list

Thailand is likely to be removed from the US Treasury's Currency Monitoring List at its next review, after meeting only one of the three assessment criteria, according to Kasikorn Research Center.

The US Treasury retained Thailand on the list in its latest semi-annual report, published in July 2026, but the country's assessment improved from the previous review. Thailand had previously met two criteria, but its current account surplus has now fallen below 3% of GDP.

Its bilateral trade surplus with the United States, however, remains above the US benchmark.

Treasury keeps 10 economies under scrutiny

Thailand remains on the monitoring list alongside China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Vietnam, Germany, Ireland and Switzerland.

K-Research said the Treasury report was based on data covering the four quarters ending in December 2025. This means economic developments in Thailand during 2026 were not included in the assessment.

The research house expects Thailand's current account surplus to remain below the US threshold. If the country continues to meet no more than one of the Treasury's three criteria, it has a strong chance of being removed from the list at the next review, it said.

The Bank of Thailand's exchange-rate approach was largely unchanged in the US assessment. The Treasury recognised that foreign-exchange intervention was intended to maintain orderly market conditions rather than give Thailand an unfair trade advantage, according to K-Research.

Focus shifts beyond currency intervention

The latest report gives more detail on the policy framework and tools used to manage the baht, indicating that the Treasury is placing greater weight on transparency, the reasons for intervention and how policies are implemented.

It also expanded its discussion of Thailand's capital-flow management and regulations. Among the measures cited were a higher threshold for compulsory repatriation of foreign income by Thai residents, a ban on domestic financial institutions conducting non-deliverable forward transactions with non-residents, and tighter oversight of digital platform-based gold trading and reporting of large gold transactions.

K-Research said the inclusion of such measures showed the Treasury was looking beyond direct foreign-exchange intervention at a wider range of policies that could affect exchange rates and cross-border capital flows.

"The US Treasury no longer focuses solely on whether authorities intervene in the foreign exchange market," the research house said. "Instead, it is placing greater emphasis on the transparency of exchange rate policy, the rationale for intervention, and the policy tools and measures that could influence exchange rates and capital flows."

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1 August 2026

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