5 minutes ago, gamb00ler said:

then he should have kept his mouth shut about that issue on the campaign.... why do you think he didn't?

Indeed that was a misjudgement. Trump overestimated his own influence in terms of inflation.

On 8/8/2026 at 2:47 PM, candide said:

Indeed! 😃

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls

15 hours ago, Cameroni said:

It's perfectly normal for job figures to go down in summer, especially in this post World Cup August, when the hotel and leisure industries are going through the post World Cup hangover.

Perfectly normal.

Not only in summer! 😃

2 hours ago, Cameroni said:

There was already inflation long before Trump put tariffs in place. You will recall Biden was castigated for it.

Inflation was significantly worse under Joe Biden. During Biden’s tenure (2021–2025), cumulative inflation rose by roughly 20% to 21%, driven by post-pandemic supply chain shocks, global energy spikes, and heavy fiscal stimulus. In contrast, cumulative inflation during Trump's first term (2017–2021) rose by only about 7% to 8%.

So Trump, far from damaging the American economy is in fact doing much better than his predecessor.

Inflation was quietly going down towards 2% before Trump made it worse (2.9% in 2024) and the Fed started lowering rates for this reason.

The main reasons for price increases during this mandate are Trump's decision: tariffs and special operation in Iran. 😃

2 hours ago, Cameroni said:

Indeed that was a misjudgement. Trump overestimated his own influence in terms of inflation.

Lol! Trump perfectly knew it was BS, and also that his fans will swallow it! 😂

25 minutes ago, candide said:

Inflation was quietly going down towards 2% before Trump made it worse (2.9% in 2024) and the Fed started lowering rates for this reason.

The main reasons for price increases during this mandate are Trump's decision: tariffs and special operation in Iran. 😃

No, it's actually not mainly tariffs and the Iran war, that's overly simplistic and reductive. In reality the main causes for inflation are the very success of Trump's policies, as people earn more money increased wage pressure adds to inflation, huge infrastructure investments mainly in AI further add to inflation as they drive prices up, as we saw with SSDs, and of course the main problem, the cost of housing, as the demand continues to outstrip supply considerably (though here too Trump's deportations are easing inflation).

I'm very disappointed to see such a simplistic analysis from you, candide.

All in all, though, the numbers are clear, Biden had roughly double the inflation that Trump has now, so Trump is about twice as good as managing the economy as the Democrats were.

29 minutes ago, candide said:

Lol! Trump perfectly knew it was BS, and also that his fans will swallow it! 😂

That's a terribly cynical assumption, I prefer to see Trump as an idealistic man who thought he could control inflation even better than he has already, but sadly, even the great Trump cannot eradicate inflation altogether.

16 hours ago, Cameroni said:

It's ludicrous to expect a single man to bring down inflation. Just as Biden wasn't responsible for inflation, Trump isn't responsible for it either.

The usual half-baked misunderstanding of the financial markets Wingate is so famous for.

Okay Wizard...tell us how non-exchange traded instruments are marked. What is the market to which they mark?

While you're at it, tell us how CDSs were valued back in 2008/9 when mortgage defaults were skyrocketing but the firms who issued the CDSs (e.g., Goldman, DB, AIG, etc.) could claim the value of the CDS wasn't rising? In fact, sometimes the issuer claimed the value was falling and demanded more margin from the CDS holder. Tell me how that works?

Please tell us the rules a private equity firms has when it holds a non-exchange traded bond and the borrower is not servicing the debt? You want us to believe Blackrock's borrower made every single interest payment in full and on time, and then on one day said, "No mas"? Blackrock carried private bonds at par and then in a single day wrote it off at $0.

Back in 2008/9 firms who held opposing positions on the same instruments BOTH marked them as profits, despite the particular instruments being a zero sum game. None of that nonsense was cleared up after the Great Recession. Firms love non-exchange traded instruments, because they can make them be whatever they need them to be.

I think you have zero understanding of how Wall Street works.

Edited August 10Aug 10 by Wingate

16 hours ago, Cameroni said:

It's ludicrous to expect a single man to bring down inflation. Just as Biden wasn't responsible for inflation, Trump isn't responsible for it either.

Trump campaigned on "Biden's inflation" and also said "I am the only one who can bring prices down". Trump has also told us he brought drug prices down by 600-700%, which is not quite possible.

Trumpers believed his nonsense, even if you did not. He got elected on his idiotic promises.

Just now, Wingate said:

Okay Wizard...tell us how non-exchange traded instruments are marked. What is the market to which they mark?

While you're at it, tell us how CDSs were valued back in 2008/9 when mortgage defaults were skyrocketing but the firms who issued the CDSs (e.g., Goldman, DB, AIG, etc.) could claim the value of the CDS wasn't rising? In fact, sometimes the issuer claimed the value was falling and demanded more margin from the CDS holder. Tell me how that works?

Please tell us the rules a private equity firms has when it holds a non-exchange traded bond and the borrower is not servicing the debt? You want us to believe Blackrock's borrower made every single interest payment in full and on time, and then on one day said, "No mas"? Blackrock carried private bonds at par and then in a single day wrote it off at $0.

I think you have zero understanding of how Wall Street works.

As somebody who set up the vehicles who issued those bonds, and drafted the offering documents that sold them to investors I'm only to happy to explain it to you.

However, before I do that, I just want to clarify that Jamie Dimon did NOT accuse Blackrock outright of illegal pricing, but he has criticized the private credit and private equity industry for paying "pretty rich" prices to acquire credit firms and stretching asset valuations. Totally different things.

Dimon noted that prices for private credit and lending shops were high, but that is what one would expect of course. Private credit always has and always will be more expensive. Lending shops that are sold will always be sold at a premium.

Whilst Dimon is criticizing this trend, he's jumping on the train and participating himself. But if you think about it it makes TOTAL SENSE that Dimon is against it, because of course private lending to heavily indebted companies bypasses traditional banks like, JP Morgan and takes bread from their table. In fact JP Morgan itself has invested 50 billion USD in private credit.

There are investment funds that are offering the private finance that Dimon referred to, and they are outside the regulatory banking rules, however, they are regulated by fund legislation. However, it stands to reason that if a fund offers quicker, larger or more flexible finance that it will ask for a premium for this, and that companies will sometimes be willing to pay it.

Anyway, to get back to how private credit is priced by Blackrock, BlackRock prices private credit (direct, non-bank loans) using bilateral negotiations rather than public market auctions. Pricing relies on a floating-rate benchmark plus a negotiated spread, factoring in an illiquidity premium, leverage levels, and customized financial covenants tailored to each borrower's cash flow (EBITDA).

Pricing Mechanics such as Floating Rates work like this: Most private credit loans use a floating-rate structure, tying the base yield to a benchmark like SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) which resets periodically.

Spread and Yield: Lenders add a fixed credit spread over the base rate. This total yield compensates for the lack of a public secondary market.

Illiquidity Premium: Pricing includes extra yield because these assets cannot be easily sold or traded on public exchanges.

Covenant Packages: Stronger or weaker legal protections directly influence the final pricing. Tighter covenants can sometimes command a more manageable spread, while looser terms may demand higher pricing.

Payment-in-Kind (PIK): In stressed or bespoke deals, pricing may feature PIK interest, allowing the borrower to pay interest in additional debt rather than cash, reflecting higher underlying risk.

Internal Mark-to-Model: Because these loans are opaque and unregulated by public exchange pricing, BlackRock prices and values them quarterly using internal fair-value models, comparable market yields, and borrower credit performance.

Hope this helps. Let me know if you have any further questions.

28 minutes ago, Wingate said:

Trump campaigned on "Biden's inflation" and also said "I am the only one who can bring prices down". Trump has also told us he brought drug prices down by 600-700%, which is not quite possible.

Trumpers believed his nonsense, even if you did not. He got elected on his idiotic promises.

Trump makes a lot of promises and would say anything to get elected. But it stands to reason that no person with a brain can expect one man to eliminate inflation. That would be ludicrous. He has of course succeeded in achieving inflation levels that are substantially below what Biden had, but it would be unfair to only credit him for this. Just as it would be unfair to blame him for inflation. Both are inaccurate.

Edited August 10Aug 10 by Cameroni

52 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

No, it's actually not mainly tariffs and the Iran war, that's overly simplistic and reductive. In reality the main causes for inflation are the very success of Trump's policies, as people earn more money increased wage pressure adds to inflation, huge infrastructure investments mainly in AI further add to inflation as they drive prices up, as we saw with SSDs, and of course the main problem, the cost of housing, as the demand continues to outstrip supply considerably (though here too Trump's deportations are easing inflation).

I'm very disappointed to see such a simplistic analysis from you, candide.

All in all, though, the numbers are clear, Biden had roughly double the inflation that Trump has now, so Trump is about twice as good as managing the economy as the Democrats were.

My 'simplistic' analysis is the same as the Fed, while you are just pouring MAGA propaganda! 😃

On 8/8/2026 at 3:02 PM, Taboo2 said:

Unfortunately, Trump will learn that his first term was great for job creation, until Covid. His second term has been a disaster. November will be a serious wakeup call for both parties.

Trump 1 before covid was riding on the coattails of Obama's ”longest period of economic expansion” in US history. Nothing to do with Trump. He did kill it effectively though with his mishandling of covid.

1 hour ago, candide said:

Inflation was quietly going down towards 2% before Trump made it worse (2.9% in 2024) and the Fed started lowering rates for this reason.

The main reasons for price increases during this mandate are Trump's decision: tariffs and special operation in Iran. 😃

Did the lefts war against Russia cause inflation to rise? I know it caused fertilizer prices to rise which is inflationary in general. Strange considering we are drowning in leftist "fertilizer" here.

I suspect throwing TRILLIONS of $$ with no need for transparency or accountability at a notorious cokehead probably inflated the price of nose candy too.

52 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

That's a terribly cynical assumption, I prefer to see Trump as an idealistic man who thought he could control inflation even better than he has already, but sadly, even the great Trump cannot eradicate inflation altogether.

What a joke! 😅

Trump has been continuously lying about it since he was sworn in, claiming he brought down inflation! 🤣🤣🤣

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/economic-speeches-trump-claims-inflation-victory-nearly-20-times-even-prices-2026-02-07

https://www.factcheck.org/2026/08/trumps-cherry-picked-inflation-boast/?utm_source=copilot.com

11 minutes ago, candide said:

My 'simplistic' analysis is the same as the Fed, while you are just pouring MAGA propaganda! 😃

No, the Fed is perfectly aware of what causes inflation too:

"....when interest rates go down, it becomes cheaper to borrow, so households are more willing to buy goods and services, and businesses are in a better position to purchase items to expand their businesses, such as property and equipment. Increased spending by households and businesses creates greater demand for the goods and services that businesses produce, which spurs them to hire more workers, influencing employment. And the stronger demand for goods and services may push wages and other costs higher, influencing inflation."

https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/money_12856.htm

Since inflation has several causes, it would be ludicrous if the Fed were to reduce it to the Iran war and tariffs, as you have done.

Edited August 10Aug 10 by Cameroni

6 minutes ago, candide said:

What a joke! 😅

Trump has been continuously lying about it since he was sworn in, claiming he brought down inflation! 🤣🤣🤣

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/economic-speeches-trump-claims-inflation-victory-nearly-20-times-even-prices-2026-02-07

https://www.factcheck.org/2026/08/trumps-cherry-picked-inflation-boast/?utm_source=copilot.com

Well, it's understandable that he goes on about it, since his inflation figures are so much better than those of his immediate Democrat rival. One would hardly expect otherwise, given that Trump's inflation is about half of what Biden had.

2 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

Well, it's understandable that he goes on about it, since his inflation figures are so much better than those of his immediate Democrat rival. One would hardly expect otherwise, given that Trump's inflation is about half of what Biden had.

Lol! You are just parroting Trump's lies! 🤣

Inflation was 2.9% in 2024, and now it's 3.5%

2 minutes ago, candide said:

Lol! You are just parroting Trump's lies! 🤣

Inflation was 2.9% in 2024, and now it's 3.5%

Yes, 3.5% now, down from 4.2% in May so Trump is doing a great job.

Let's not forget that under Biden we saw 9.1%, so you're right, I was not strictly accurate, I said Trump was twice as good at managing inflation than Biden, but he's almost three times better.

My bad.

Edited August 10Aug 10 by Cameroni

5 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

No, the Fed is perfectly aware of what causes inflation too:

"....when interest rates go down, it becomes cheaper to borrow, so households are more willing to buy goods and services, and businesses are in a better position to purchase items to expand their businesses, such as property and equipment. Increased spending by households and businesses creates greater demand for the goods and services that businesses produce, which spurs them to hire more workers, influencing employment. And the stronger demand for goods and services may push wages and other costs higher, influencing inflation."

https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/money_12856.htm

Since inflation has several causes, it would be ludicrous if the Fed were to reduce it to the Iran war and tariffs, as you have done.

Not a nice try!

It's not about the current inflation rates! 😂

2 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

Yes, 3.5% now, down from 4.2% in May so Trump is doing a great job.

Let's not forget that under Biden we saw 9.1%, so you're right, I was not strictly accurate, I said Trump was twice as good at managing inflation than Biden, but he's almost three times better.

My bad.

Lol! So it's less worse than Trump's previous worst number!

Inflation is higher than when Trump took office. He's lying and you are parroting his lies! 😂

Edited August 10Aug 10 by candide

8 minutes ago, candide said:

Inflation is higher than when Trump took office.

Inflation in January 2025 was 3%, so more or less the same as Trump has now. A bit hard to understand all the whining about inflation then.

Particularly since inflation was as high as 9.1% under Biden. The fair thing to do really would be to look at the monthly average at the end of Trump's term and compare it to Biden. But we're still far off from that.

Until then, this inflation by president table shows that Trump is in the elite lower tier. Again, well done Donald Trump!

https://www.investopedia.com/us-inflation-rate-by-president-8546447

On 8/9/2026 at 6:51 AM, Tug said:

Hey yagoda and the rest of the trump supporters….riclag ect what’s your take on this misfortune befalling our country ehh???glad I’m retired.My heart goes out to the families trying to survive in this mess.sad.

They will say "Fake News " , even though their own propaganda news ? channel

Faux News are reporting this , they must be biting their tongues to have to report

this .... it could be worse when you know who are collating the numbers ,people

have been sacked for putting out true bad numbers that he does not like...

regards worgeordie

13 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

Inflation in January 2025 was 3%, so more or less the same as Trump has now. A bit hard to understand all the whining about inflation then.

Particularly since inflation was as high as 9.1% under Biden. The fair thing to do really would be to look at the monthly average at the end of Trump's term and compare it to Biden. But we're still far off from that.

Until then, this inflation by president table shows that Trump is in the elite lower tier. Again, well done Donald Trump!

https://www.investopedia.com/us-inflation-rate-by-president-8546447

So it's higher than when Trump took office! You are confirming that Trump is lying with his ridiculous claims that he lowered inflation! 😆

The general trend was a decrease of inflation, in particular since OPEC decided to increase production in summer 2024 in order to gain back market shares. Trump's decisions changed that (at least for the time being).

11 minutes ago, candide said:

So it's higher than when Trump took office!

Slightly, by a tiny, insignificant, almost negligible margin. But we need to compare it to Biden's OVERALL inflation figures of course, not just the last few months, but we saw incredibly high 9.1% inflation with Biden in some months.

Of course Trump will say he lowered inflation, and he did from 4.2 to 3.5 per cent, recently, but all these are snapshots in time. We should compare at the end of his presidency and caculate an average, and then compare it to Biden's average. Not that presidents really have much sway on inflation anyway, or are you suggesting that Jimmy Carter was 4 times worse a president than Trump? Surely not. He was just unlucky that he was hit with the oil shocks. Equally Biden suffered from Covid. These things happen.

All this inflation anal retention focus is not really relevant. I mean America still suffers from the Ukraine-Russia war and its energy and food, fertilizer consequences, whose fault is that? Certainly not poor Donald Trump's.

Edited August 10Aug 10 by Cameroni

23 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

Slightly, by a tiny, insignificant, almost negligible margin. But we need to compare it to Biden's OVERALL inflation figures of course, not just the last few months, but we saw incredibly high 9.1% inflation with Biden in some months.

Of course Trump will say he lowered inflation, and he did from 4.2 to 3.5 per cent, recently, but all these are snapshots in time. We should compare at the end of his presidency and caculate an average, and then compare it to Biden's average. Not that presidents really have much sway on inflation anyway, or are you suggesting that Jimmy Carter was 4 times worse a president than Trump? Surely not. He was just unlucky that he was hit with the oil shocks. Equally Biden suffered from Covid. These things happen.

All this inflation anal retention focus is not really relevant. I mean America still suffers from the Ukraine-Russia war and its energy and food, fertilizer consequences, whose fault is that? Certainly not poor Donald Trump's.

How deep is that hole you're digging? 😃

Trump lied during his campaign. Actually he did more than promise to lower inflation, he promised to bring the price of food down! 😃

He's been lying many times about inflation during his mandate, not only recently (I posted a Reuters link about it). He received an economy with an inflation rate at 3%, and a decreasing trend acknowledged by the FED. Then he increased inflation! 😀

Lol! You forgot to mention the impact of the special operation in Iran and of tariffs. Trump was not just "unlucky", that was largely caused by his own decisions. Without tariffs and war in Iran, the trend of decreasing inflation would have gone on.

Edited August 10Aug 10 by candide

9 minutes ago, candide said:

Trump lied during his campaign. Actually he did more than promise to lower inflation, he promised to bring the price of food down!

True, he was overly ambitious. He flew too close to the sun.

13 minutes ago, candide said:

Without tariffs and war in Iran, the trend of decreasing inflation would have gone on

Hardly. We saw with Germany, which did not invade iran or impose tariffs, that inflation was just as much of a problem.

You just want to blame everything of Trump. Why? What did he ever do to you?

1 hour ago, Cameroni said:

All this inflation anal retention focus is not really relevant. I mean America still suffers from the Ukraine-Russia war and its energy and food, fertilizer consequences, whose fault is that? Certainly not poor Donald Trump's.

It's not Donald Trump's fault for the invasion itself. But once he promised he could end the war and I believe he could if he had the will, I suggest the continuing war and its consequences become partly his responsibility too. Instead, he has repeatedly delayed support for Ukraine, against Congress's wishes, halted previously appropriated aid, recalled exported missiles, and reneged on Patriot licensing. If Putin needed an ally against Ukraine, he could hardly have hoped for a more accommodating one than Trump. I suggest any continuing inflation from the war has Trump's fingerprints all over it.
.

1 hour ago, LosLobo said:

It's not Donald Trump's fault for the invasion itself. But once he promised he could end the war and I believe he could if he had the will, I suggest the continuing war and its consequences become partly his responsibility too.

Very harsh, Trump after all did his best to bring the two Slavic warring parties to the table. He tried hard to end it, but you can't force a horse to drink water. I don't think you can pin this on Trump, he tried to end it and quite seriously.

The US economy is doing really great. Those that complain about affordability and prices don't know what they're talking about. How do I know this?

Well, Maria has talked to a lot of CEOs and they say it's so!🤣

5 hours ago, Wingate said:

Trump campaigned on "Biden's inflation" and also said "I am the only one who can bring prices down". Trump has also told us he brought drug prices down by 600-700%, which is not quite possible.

Trumpers believed his nonsense, even if you did not. He got elected on his idiotic promises.

The Democrats are campaigning on "affordability." Do you believe them?