‘Muslim NATO’ deal exposes cracks in Trump’s Middle East grip

Saudi Prince Muhammed bin Salman and Turkish President Erdogan

A new Nato-style defence pact between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey has exposed growing doubts over America’s grip on the Middle East. The Mecca Joint Defence agreement, signed on 7 August, declares that an attack on one member will be treated as an attack on all.

The deal comes as the region reels from escalating conflict and mounting fears over US and Israeli military action.

Three regional powers move to protect themselves

Turkey has Nato’s second-largest army after the US. Saudi Arabia is one of the world’s richest oil powers, while nuclear-armed Pakistan has repeatedly acted as a go-between for Washington and Tehran.

All three have faced Iranian retaliation during the conflict. But experts say the alliance is also a response to growing uncertainty over US policy and Israel’s expanding military reach.

Hugh Lovatt of the European Council on Foreign Relations said the realignment reflected a desire to secure the region as Israel’s actions increasingly raise threat perceptions.

Trump praised the deal — but it sends a warning

Donald Trump has welcomed the agreement, describing it as evidence that regional states are finally taking greater responsibility for their own defence.

But analysts warn that the pact also exposes a weakness in Washington’s strategy. Chatham House researcher Galip Dalay said the US remained indispensable but was increasingly seen as “unpredictable and unreliable”.

The agreement also signals a shift away from the assumptions behind Trump’s 2020 Abraham Accords, which prioritised Arab-Israeli normalisation without fully resolving the Palestinian issue.

A new bloc emerges between Washington and Tehran

The three countries are not openly breaking with America or forming an anti-Western alliance. Instead, experts describe them as occupying a middle ground between Washington’s partners and Iran’s network of regional proxies.

Lovatt called it a “counter-Abraham Accords axis” — driven less by religion than by shared security concerns and suspicion of Israeli ambitions.

The real battle could be diplomatic

The pact has yet to face a major military test. Its greatest impact may instead come through diplomacy, as Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan coordinate their positions and potentially attract new members, including Egypt.

That could give the emerging bloc greater leverage across the region — while leaving Washington facing a new reality: its allies are increasingly preparing to protect their interests without waiting for America to lead.

New ‘Muslim NATO’ shows Trump’s authority in Middle East has collapsed