Sweden’s great migration reversal puts far right at the gates

Sweden was once Europe’s symbol of openness to refugees. Now, after years of migration, gang violence and political backlash, voters face a pivotal election that could bring the far-right Sweden Democrats into government for the first time.

The country that once opened its doors

For decades, Sweden welcomed refugees fleeing war and persecution, from Danish Jews during the Second World War to Chileans, Kurds, Somalis, Iranians, Bosnians and Iraqis. During the 2015 Syrian crisis, it accepted 163,000 asylum seekers — one of Europe’s highest rates relative to population.

But the political mood shifted as social tensions mounted. Gang shootings, bombings and criminal infiltration became major concerns, particularly in poorer areas with large immigrant populations.

Violence transformed the political debate

Professor Sten Widmalm of Uppsala University said the surge in shootings, bomb attacks and organised crime was the key driver behind Sweden’s rightward turn.

Firearms and explosives became increasingly prominent, while criminal networks began recruiting teenagers as hitmen. Sweden recorded one of Europe’s highest rates of gun deaths, although its overall homicide rate has since fallen sharply.

The centre-left Social Democrats were blamed for failing to control the crisis, helping conservative leader Ulf Kristersson win power in 2022.

The Sweden Democrats moved from fringe to power

Kristersson formed a governing alliance dependent on the Sweden Democrats, whose origins lie in anti-immigration and neo-Nazi-linked groups. The party has since pushed immigration and crime to the centre of Sweden’s political debate.

The government has slashed refugee quotas, expanded police powers and introduced tougher measures including anonymous testimony and a lower age of criminal responsibility.

Migration crackdown reshapes Sweden

Refugee quotas have fallen from 5,000 to 900 a year, while new rules make residency harder and allow permits to be revoked for broadly defined “bad behaviour”. Sweden Democrats figures have also increasingly targeted Muslims, warning of “Islamisation” and calling for remigration and restrictions on mosques.

Yet the crackdown has coincided with falling homicide rates. Whether that translates into votes remains uncertain, with healthcare and welfare also dominating the campaign.

Sunday’s vote could mark a historic break

Polls give the centre-left a narrow lead, but it is shrinking. If Kristersson wins, he has promised cabinet positions to the Sweden Democrats — a move that would bring a party with neo-Nazi roots directly into Sweden’s government for the first time.

For a country built around trust, welfare and openness, the election represents a profound political reckoning over what Sweden has become.

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