Houthis push Saudi Arabia to the brink as Iran peace deal looms

Yemen's war is suddenly threatening Mecca, Saudi oil and the wider Middle East

Saudi Arabia is facing a rapidly widening Houthi threat from Yemen, with attacks now reaching dangerously close to Mecca while the Iran-backed movement also threatens vital Saudi oil infrastructure.

The latest escalation came when Saudi air defences intercepted and destroyed a Houthi drone south of Mecca before it entered the holy city's restricted airspace. Saudi authorities described the security of Mecca and the other holy sites as a “red line”. The Houthis, however, denied that they had targeted Mecca.

The incident dramatically raises the stakes. Mecca is Islam's holiest city and any confirmed attack directed at it would carry consequences far beyond the battlefield in Yemen.

But the threat to Saudi Arabia is not only religious or military.

The oil danger

The Houthis have been expanding their attacks against Saudi targets as they push along Yemen's Red Sea coast and threaten key shipping routes.

The New York Post reports that Saudi Arabia's crucial oil infrastructure is increasingly exposed, including the huge East-West pipeline and the Abqaiq oil-processing complex. The pipeline provides a vital alternative route for Saudi crude when shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted.

That creates a potentially explosive situation for world energy markets.

The Houthis have also taken control of strategic positions around the Bab al-Mandab Strait, one of the world's major maritime chokepoints. With Hormuz already severely disrupted, pressure on Bab al-Mandab threatens to squeeze another major route for global oil shipments.

Oil has already moved sharply higher amid the attacks, with Brent crude reported above $109 a barrel.

And then there is Iran

The timing could hardly be more extraordinary.

Middle East Eye is reporting that the United States and Iran are moving towards a peace agreement, with a signing ceremony planned for Friday in Geneva.

Yet while Washington and Tehran work towards an agreement, Iran's Houthi allies are continuing their campaign against Saudi Arabia.

That leaves Riyadh facing a particularly difficult question: what happens to the Yemen war if the wider US-Iran conflict begins to wind down but the Houthis continue fighting?

Saudi Arabia has already been hit by attacks on cities and critical infrastructure, while the Houthis have threatened further strikes. The Guardian reports that the latest escalation has also prompted warnings of a worsening humanitarian crisis inside Yemen.

For Saudi Arabia, the danger is now coming from several directions at once — missiles and drones, oil infrastructure, Red Sea shipping and, most dramatically, the possibility of attacks approaching the country's holiest city.

A US-Iran peace deal may change the wider Middle East war.

But Yemen could be the place where the war refuses to end.

ORIGINAL CONTENT: New York Post. Middle East Eye. Guardian

as Iran peace deal "looms"....

Looms? Must look up the definition