Australia’s Indigenous population may have been vastly larger

A new study suggests Australia’s Indigenous population before European colonisation may have exceeded two million people — up to seven times higher than earlier estimates. Researchers say about 93 per cent of the population was lost in less than 80 years after the First Fleet arrived in 1788.

The old estimates may have missed a vast population

The research, published in Nature Human Behaviour, used computer modelling alongside archaeological and genetic evidence and cultural observations to reconstruct Australia’s pre-colonial population. Earlier estimates, including one of 250,000 made in the 1930s, did not fully account for lethal diseases and structural violence following colonisation.

The new study puts the Indigenous population at more than two million, equivalent to about 0.29 people per square kilometre across the continent.

Only seven per cent survived by 1861

The scale of the decline was dramatic. By 1861, researchers estimated that only around seven per cent of the pre-colonial population remained.

Corey Bradshaw of Flinders University, an author of the study, said establishing the population size before 1788 was essential to truth-telling and reconciliation.

Alan Williams of James Cook University said the findings demonstrated both the devastating impact of invasion and the “remarkable survival, resilience and recovery” of Indigenous Australians over the past century.

The population has recovered — but remains far below its peak

The Indigenous population began growing again from the 1950s, but remains well below the study’s estimated pre-colonial level. The 2021 census recorded an Indigenous population equivalent to about 37 per cent of the study’s median pre-colonial estimate.

Researchers said the findings could deepen understanding of intergenerational trauma and inform future policy.

Larissa Behrendt, a co-author, said the evidence pointed to a “demographic catastrophe” at the heart of Australia’s history — while also highlighting survival as one of the country’s most remarkable stories.

Australia likely had a much larger pre-colonial Indigenous population