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iran rial crashes to a new low

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Bessent said on Sunday that about 15 million barrels of Iranian oil remained on the water for delivery to China and predicted Iran could have “nothing left to trade for anything” within roughly two weeks.


Significant update: the long-end sell-off has moved from “persistent pressure” to a fresh multi-decade high.

On Monday, 28 September 2026, the secondary-market 10-year Treasury yield reached about 5.27% and the 30-year reached about 5.55%—both higher than the already-worrying levels seen on 24 September. The 10-year is now at its highest since 2007, and the 30-year at its highest since 2004.

Assessment: this indicates worsening pressure at the long end, not easing. Treasury’s buybacks are functioning as liquidity support, but they are not acting as yield control.

Market implications: this is increasingly negative for long-duration bond funds, 20–30-year Treasuries, mortgage-sensitive assets and high-duration equities. US stocks already weakened on 28 September as yields rose, with the S&P 500 down about 0.8% and the Nasdaq about 0.9%.

The next genuinely important signs would be: repeated weak 10- and 30-year auctions, Treasury formally shifting more financing into bills or shorter notes, a much larger buyback programme at the November refunding, or evidence of repo/funding stress alongside the yield surge.

Who is going to crack first???

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