Bangkok Post On-line Poll Favours Abhisit As Next Pm

[george]

First Post Poll favours Abhisit as next PM

BANGKOK: -- Results from the first week of the Post Poll Election 2007 are out.

According to the preliminary results, 56% of respondents want Democrat party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva to be the country’s next prime minister. Leader of the People Power party (PPP) Samak Sundaravej trailed with 27% of the votes while Matchimathiapataya leader Prachai Leophairatana garnered only 4% of the votes.

In terms of popularity, the Democrat party also leads with 57% of the votes, followed by the PPP with 31% and Puea Pandin party which received 3% of the votes.

The poll also shows that most people want the new government to make economic problems the top priority, followed by national reconciliation and boosting people’s earnings.

Post Poll 2007 invites readers to answer a questionnaire once a week over a four-week period, from October 8 to Dec 12. A new survey begins every Wednesday.

To cast your vote, simply go here: http://www.bangkokpost.com/postpoll/election2007

-- Bangkok Post 2007-11-14

[my friend I]

A BangkokPost poll would miss out a lot of voters.

[hammered]

A BangkokPost poll would miss out a lot of voters.

Yes it is just an indication of the thinking of a certain class of people, but interesting as such.

[lazeeboy]

A BangkokPost poll would miss out a lot of voters.

Yes it is just an indication of the thinking of a certain class of people, but interesting as such.

the bangkok post shows the cosmapolitan vote ,but its the out in the sticks vote that counts .......

[hammered]

A BangkokPost poll would miss out a lot of voters.

Yes it is just an indication of the thinking of a certain class of people, but interesting as such.

the bangkok post shows the cosmapolitan vote ,but its the out in the sticks vote that counts .......

naturally and thats why the politcos spend so much time and money manipulating it

[britmaveric]

Well guess TRT is back again....

[TheEmperorOfTheNorth]

Fortunately, people who read the Bangkok Post are just a fraction of the vote.

[monty]

Much more relevant are polls done by Suan Dusit. Read yesterday I think that the PPP is much more popular then the Bkk Post poll would indicate!

It's generally known that the democrats with Abhisit will control Bangkok, up North will be a whole different ballgame though...

[jbowman1993]

Fortunately, people who read the Bangkok Post are just a fraction of the vote.

You want Samak or Barnham? Are you joking?

Also, the poll is not just of Bangkok Post readers. It is attached to their Thai newspaper Post Today, and several of their other publications. So the demographic is not quite as narrow as people are assuming. (still narrow, of course)

Edited November 14, 2007 by jbowman1993

[hammered]

Fortunately, people who read the Bangkok Post are just a fraction of the vote.

You want Samak or Barnham? Are you joking?

Also, the poll is not just of Bangkok Post readers. It is attached to their Thai newspaper Post Today, and several of their other publications. So the demographic is not quite as narrow as people are assuming. (still narrow, of course)

Does anyone seriously want Samak to run the country? Which of course is not to say many wont vote for his party but with his record he could end up making the old ginger governmnet look both liberal and efficient.

[keemapoot]

Regardless, I think the demographic for this would be significantly narrow. Not sure what the margin of error would be but I would have to guess at least 10-20 points on a nationwide scale.

[HarryHacker]

Fortunately, people who read the Bangkok Post are just a fraction of the vote.

You want Samak or Barnham? Are you joking?

Also, the poll is not just of Bangkok Post readers. It is attached to their Thai newspaper Post Today, and several of their other publications. So the demographic is not quite as narrow as people are assuming. (still narrow, of course)

I'm absolutely amazed that some farangs would actually prefer the likes of Samak/Barnham to be in the powerhouse with their checkered history, if that day happens I hope Sonthi gets the nod to take over again.

[sbk]

Much more relevant are polls done by Suan Dusit. Read yesterday I think that the PPP is much more popular then the Bkk Post poll would indicate!

It's generally known that the democrats with Abhisit will control Bangkok, up North will be a whole different ballgame though...

And the South, which is traditionally Democrat.

Frankly, I am amazed that Thai people aren't fed up with the same old-style dinosaurs running this country. These are the same faces I've seen in Thai politics since I got here, or if not them, their kids, who are exactly the same!

Suthep, Banharn, Chavalit, Samak, etc etc

[Samuian]

Frankly, I am amazed that Thai people aren't fed up with the same old-style dinosaurs running this country. These are the same faces I've seen in Thai politics since I got here, or if not them, their kids, who are exactly the same!

Suthep, Banharn, Chavalit, Samak, etc etc

How about Sanan? Or get the ousted guy back, he was so fantastic, wasn't he?

I am afraid it will be the same old sad song over and over again.... TiT!

Many of them voters have till today not even realized what this guy and his compatriots have done wrong....

Money will do the talking and promises will fill the ballots!

[seonai]

I am totally for Abhisit - and HE'S CUTE

[Plus]

Similar poll results are in today's Nation.

They talk about Bangkok, not the rest of the country, so don't try to extrapolate this poll results on the final election outcome.

All I think is that if PPP is soundly defeated in Bangkok it means that it will have tough going in other urban centers as well. It might carry Chiang Mai province, for example, but lose the city.

Overall PPP will win more seats than any other party but not enough to form the government, and it won't find enough partners to enter into a ruling coalition.

Democrat + Chat Thai and their small allies will be overall winners.

In the worst case scenario smaller parties might feel squeezed and decide to join PPP alliance in exchange for ministerial positions. I'm sure PPP realised by now that it needs allies badly and they probably have a plan in place already.

[TheEmperorOfTheNorth]

Fortunately, people who read the Bangkok Post are just a fraction of the vote.

You want Samak or Barnham? Are you joking?

Not joking at all. (And Banharn is in bed with the Democrats, so it's not like they're any better) No, I don't really want the old dinosaurs, but they are effectively forced upon Thailand again because of the military and the elite behind them. who orchestrated a military coup. Consider this, suppose you're a voter (and for argument purposes I'll make it a Northern or North-Eastern voter), the choice is effectively:

* Democrat party, the scheming sons of bitches who made the coup possible by an election boycott (!) because they couldn't win by votes, then actively supported the coup, who never gave a fuc_k about the poor, who were whofully ineffective in leadership (Hi Chuan!), and never got the economy anywhere. I'd safely say that unless you're a Bangkok urban groupie or a Southerner they're NOT an option.

* Ex-TRT, who did a splendid job for the country, the economy and advancement of the poor (in the poor's own opinion). Because of the military and their show trials, the most qualified leaders can't run, so it's effectively back to the dinosaurs.. PPP is stuck between a rock and hard place, they know they need the power brokers / regional factions, but without leadership they now need those dinosaurs to actually run the show..

[TheEmperorOfTheNorth]

Frankly, I am amazed that Thai people aren't fed up with the same old-style dinosaurs running this country.

The coup makers left them NO choice. The whole point of the coup was to go back to unstable coalitions by self-serving rural/regional factions. 'Divide & Conquer'.

These are the same faces I've seen in Thai politics since I got here, or if not them, their kids, who are exactly the same!

Yes, it's sad. I wasn't kidding when I said the day after the coup that this set Thailand and Thai democracy back 15 years.

[TheEmperorOfTheNorth]

I am totally for Abhisit - and HE'S CUTE

But but.. Samak has this rugged handsomenes about him and. .and.. Ok, I'll concede this point. I guess they secured the gay vote.

[TheEmperorOfTheNorth]

Similar poll results are in today's Nation.

Obviously. The Nation is unbelievably partial. They're not viable as a news source or opinion source.

They talk about Bangkok,

You'd think that someone at the Nation would realize in time that it's not a Bangkok vote but a national vote? But wait, then it wouldn't show something positive for the "Democrat" Party anymore!

All I think is that if PPP is soundly defeated in Bangkok it means that it will have tough going in other urban centers as well. It might carry Chiang Mai province, for example, but lose the city.

Agreed. TRT was never that big in the city itself.

[sbk]

You'd think that people would stop ignoring the South in these calculations. It is always amazing to me when posters (or papers) talk about how Bangkok is democrat and then ignore an entire region that votes primarily Democrat and one that was largely ignored or screwed up by the previous Administration. I guess people power only extends to those whose votes you can buy

[hammered]

Similar poll results are in today's Nation.

They talk about Bangkok, not the rest of the country, so don't try to extrapolate this poll results on the final election outcome.

All I think is that if PPP is soundly defeated in Bangkok it means that it will have tough going in other urban centers as well. It might carry Chiang Mai province, for example, but lose the city.

Overall PPP will win more seats than any other party but not enough to form the government, and it won't find enough partners to enter into a ruling coalition.

Democrat + Chat Thai and their small allies will be overall winners.

In the worst case scenario smaller parties might feel squeezed and decide to join PPP alliance in exchange for ministerial positions. I'm sure PPP realised by now that it needs allies badly and they probably have a plan in place already.

Your analysis is probably correct based on what we know today although things can change quickly. How well PPP does in the rural northern and NE areas will depend very largely on how many village headmen they are able to keep onside, which i would guess would be a lot judging by the names they have behind them in many of these constituencies.

Dont forget that so far Mr. Thaksin has failed to discrdit the coup , the courts, the cases against him and has lost the charter vote, a defeat in the election will largely legitimise everything that has happened to date and is his last chance and probably best chance to overturn things or at least discredit them. This will certainly be a fight and involve some nasty tactics.

[hammered]

You'd think that people would stop ignoring the South in these calculations. It is always amazing to me when posters (or papers) talk about how Bangkok is democrat and then ignore an entire region that votes primarily Democrat and one that was largely ignored or screwed up by the previous Administration. I guess people power only extends to those whose votes you can buy

Mr. Thaksin, TRT, PPP and their acolytes have largely won the battle over the meme that all poor support Mr. T and only the middle classes support everyone else, which shows the uselessness of the media, Thai and International and the commentators and academics who repeatedly repeat this statement when a simple analysis of the April 2 unofficial vote count shows the no vote was millions bigger than the entire middle class of Thailand, and we also all know middle class people who support Mr. T I am sure. Oh for a better media, better academics and better political analysts.

Thank you for pointing this out.

[Plus]

Similar poll results are in today's Nation.

Obviously. The Nation is unbelievably partial. They're not viable as a news source or opinion source.

They talk about Bangkok,

You'd think that someone at the Nation would realize in time that it's not a Bangkok vote but a national vote?

The Nation DOESN'T CONDUCT polls. It reports on them. And I bet these same results are in every Thai paper today, too, so it is you who is "unbelievabley partial", not the Nation.

There's no reason in the world that would prohibit the Nation or any other news media from reporting on poll results in the capital.

Complete run down on possible party list votes across all the whole country, in all eight zones, was given yesterday. It occupied the whole page and had names and pictures all all major party list candidates from all parties.

That was Nation's own analisys as there haven't been nationwide polls yet.

They talked about South, Sbk, they said that former Wadah faction might win one proportional seat, and Democrats might lose a seat or two in the upper South - from Prachuap up.

Consituency based seats haven't been analised yet, even registration has not been completed.

[Payboy]

Consituency based seats haven't been analised yet

surely, you must be joking....

[TheEmperorOfTheNorth]

You'd think that people would stop ignoring the South in these calculations. It is always amazing to me when posters (or papers) talk about how Bangkok is democrat and then ignore an entire region that votes primarily Democrat and one that was largely ignored or screwed up by the previous Administration. I guess people power only extends to those whose votes you can buy

That's misleading and you know it. And it further purports the myth that poor people don't know anything, or only vote because they get money. Think again: They voted TRT because TRT actually lived up to promises made, and as such for the first time in Thai politics represented some respect for people who have the least.

Think again: People Power *IS* the block of people with the most votes. That's not the South. Sorry.

[sbk]

I am afraid you over looking the very real fact of massive vote buying in this country.

[sriracha john]

It also over-looks who is doing the majority of it:

Conspicuous by his absence....

Candidates take oath not to buy votes

Candidates contesting for MPs in Bangkok attended an oath-taking ceremony at the Temple of the Emerald Buddha on Thursday morning vowing they will not buy votes in the Dec 23 general election. Many prominent politicians were on hand including Democrat Party Leader Abhisit Vejjajiva, Matchima Thipataya Party Leader Prachai Leophairatana, and Deputy Leader of Puea Pandin party Wutthichai Damrongrat. People Power Party Leader Samak Sundaravej, however, did not join the event.

Continued here:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/b...s.php?id=123606

Well virtually all the vote buying I have heard of to date emanates from one party.

Maybe Samak is traditionalist and superstitious enough enough to fear making such an oath.

Indeed it is the most revered Wat in Thailand. Samak doesn't need any more bad kharma by telling lies inside of it....

Edited November 15, 2007 by sriracha john

[younghusband]

It also over-looks who is doing the majority of it:

Conspicuous by his absence....

Candidates take oath not to buy votes

Candidates contesting for MPs in Bangkok attended an oath-taking ceremony at the Temple of the Emerald Buddha on Thursday morning vowing they will not buy votes in the Dec 23 general election. Many prominent politicians were on hand including Democrat Party Leader Abhisit Vejjajiva, Matchima Thipataya Party Leader Prachai Leophairatana, and Deputy Leader of Puea Pandin party Wutthichai Damrongrat. People Power Party Leader Samak Sundaravej, however, did not join the event.

Continued here:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/b...s.php?id=123606

Well virtually all the vote buying I have heard of to date emanates from one party.

Maybe Samak is traditionalist and superstitious enough enough to fear making such an oath.

Indeed it is the most revered Wat in Thailand. Samak doesn't need any more bad kharma by telling lies inside of it....

This has nothing to do with the topic.May I politely suggest that if you wish to pursue Samak's karma issues you should start a thread elswhere. preferably not in the news section

Back to the topic.I suppose the Bangkok Post on line poll may at least approximately represent Khun Abhisit's political strength in metropolitan Bangkok, although a wild card might be the Bangkok lower middle class voters who for a variety of reasons are deeply disaffected and whose loyalties are on offer (and I don't mean in the monetary sense!).I must also declare an interest as a strong supporter of Abhisit.

My point about the on-line poll however is that it was reported as "news" when clearly it is no such thing.The fact that The Nation reported it as such is quite frankly a rather slovenly and half witted kind of journalism which would be laughed out of court at say the NYT,Independent or similar self respecting newspaper. .Generally The Nation's journalistic standards since the coup have been mixed, some flashes of brilliance and some depressing episodes of hypocrisy, but almost like gravity it tends to descend to oleaginious sycophancy and a patronising attitude that the Bangkok elite and its hangers on have some kind of moral superiority (and hence self awarded right to influence the political dispensation) over the Thai majority.Now if one of the English language newspapers was to commission a proper independent poll, professionally done with an appropriate sampling technique, that would be a different matter altogether - and the results would be "news".

Edited November 15, 2007 by younghusband

[blaze]

I am afraid you over looking the very real fact of massive vote buying in this country.

How have the Democrats been able to hold on to the south so tightly? I find it difficult to believe that the people in NST, Surat Thani etc are socially, legally and politically evolved to the extent that they would not accept cash for votes as willingly as their northern cousins. And it's also hard to imagine the poor in those provinces rejecting the 'populist' type policies of the TRT.

I guess what I'm asking is what is the historic attraction to the Democrats in the South?