£ Sterling Up Sh*t Creek?

[BalthazarBeefheart]

Well I've actually listened to some of the so-called smug dudes / masters-of-money in here.

I've saved money because I listened to them.

At first I was in near-denial that the sterling would fall when the talk first started about two months ago, but fall the £ has.

How far down does the rabbit hole go?

nobody knows nothing. those who claim they know, know even less than nothing (although that is mathematically impossible)

I knew it was going to fall. Against the $USD anyway. You're right that knowbody knows why, including me; but unfortunately everyone gets stuck trying to figure out why, which of course, it's totally unimportant.

According to the FX technicals "GBP possibly forming a Significant Bottom" that is at Fridays close so maybe with the Fed looking to cut at the end of the month we will see some improvement.

I have looked into Foreign Exchange deposits with First Direct and wondered if others here had better alternatives please advise.

Anyway, I am off to the gyms in search of more significant bottoms.

Cheers BB

BB, While I can understand your effort to rationalize that a bottom has been put in for the pound, I really think that you are grasping at straws if you think that the FED will be lowereing rates at the next FOMC meeting! The FED will likely leave things put until January, but their next move will be up not down. I hope things went better at the gym!

VV I made those remarks last January - someone decided to resurrect this old thread - I wonder why ?

Cheers BB

[VegasVic]

Well I've actually listened to some of the so-called smug dudes / masters-of-money in here.

I've saved money because I listened to them.

At first I was in near-denial that the sterling would fall when the talk first started about two months ago, but fall the £ has.

How far down does the rabbit hole go?

nobody knows nothing. those who claim they know, know even less than nothing (although that is mathematically impossible)

I knew it was going to fall. Against the $USD anyway. You're right that knowbody knows why, including me; but unfortunately everyone gets stuck trying to figure out why, which of course, it's totally unimportant.

According to the FX technicals "GBP possibly forming a Significant Bottom" that is at Fridays close so maybe with the Fed looking to cut at the end of the month we will see some improvement.

I have looked into Foreign Exchange deposits with First Direct and wondered if others here had better alternatives please advise.

Anyway, I am off to the gyms in search of more significant bottoms.

Cheers BB

BB, While I can understand your effort to rationalize that a bottom has been put in for the pound, I really think that you are grasping at straws if you think that the FED will be lowereing rates at the next FOMC meeting! The FED will likely leave things put until January, but their next move will be up not down. I hope things went better at the gym!

VV I made those remarks last January - someone decided to resurrect this old thread - I wonder why ?

Cheers BB

You are correct sir, apparently JimsKnight did resurect this thread from the ashes, and since there are so many new threads on the Pound here lately I did not pay attention to the posting dates, my bad! I will have to pay more atention next time

[Mosha]

Well I've actually listened to some of the so-called smug dudes / masters-of-money in here.

I've saved money because I listened to them.

At first I was in near-denial that the sterling would fall when the talk first started about two months ago, but fall the £ has.

How far down does the rabbit hole go?

nobody knows nothing. those who claim they know, know even less than nothing (although that is mathematically impossible)

I knew it was going to fall. Against the $USD anyway. You're right that knowbody knows why, including me; but unfortunately everyone gets stuck trying to figure out why, which of course, it's totally unimportant.

According to the FX technicals "GBP possibly forming a Significant Bottom" that is at Fridays close so maybe with the Fed looking to cut at the end of the month we will see some improvement.

I have looked into Foreign Exchange deposits with First Direct and wondered if others here had better alternatives please advise.

Anyway, I am off to the gyms in search of more significant bottoms.

Cheers BB

BB, While I can understand your effort to rationalize that a bottom has been put in for the pound, I really think that you are grasping at straws if you think that the FED will be lowereing rates at the next FOMC meeting! The FED will likely leave things put until January, but their next move will be up not down. I hope things went better at the gym!

VV I made those remarks last January - someone decided to resurrect this old thread - I wonder why ?

Cheers BB

Because the pound is now going south

[JimsKnight]

Bumpity-Bump

The pound teeters....

[JimsKnight]

Well £ Sterling is teetering on the 60.6 marker and I know that its getting hairy.

I'm not even relying on £ Sterling at the moment but I know a lot of UK dudes are getting edgy right now!

[cmsally]

I just looked on the SCB website and the pound has dipped under 60

Whereas a few days ago it was almost up to 63

A bit grim if you are depending on pounds.

It seems to be tracking the Euro more than the USD at the moment.

[Naam]

I just looked on the SCB website and the pound has dipped under 60 Whereas a few days ago it was almost up to 63

A bit grim if you are depending on pounds. It seems to be tracking the Euro more than the USD at the moment.

no signs of the Baht weakening.

[Marksamui]

I just looked on the SCB website and the pound has dipped under 60

Whereas a few days ago it was almost up to 63

A bit grim if you are depending on pounds.

It seems to be tracking the Euro more than the USD at the moment.

It has yes, this is nasty for a lot of people. I am looking to buy in Thailand and the rate is killing me as I have the bulk of the savings in GBP. I am going to have to wait for it to get better or save more to cover the exchange loss.

I hope that the $700b US bailout will help the currencies pick up. This last drop from 63 to 60 was went it did not go through, seeing as it looks likley to go through it might pick back up to 63. Here hoping anyway...anything above that is unlikey at the moment. Hope it does not go down more!!

[Naam]

I just looked on the SCB website and the pound has dipped under 60

Whereas a few days ago it was almost up to 63

A bit grim if you are depending on pounds.

It seems to be tracking the Euro more than the USD at the moment.

It has yes, this is nasty for a lot of people. I am looking to buy in Thailand and the rate is killing me as I have the bulk of the savings in GBP. I am going to have to wait for it to get better or save more to cover the exchange loss.

I hope that the $700b US bailout will help the currencies pick up. This last drop from 63 to 60 was went it did not go through, seeing as it looks likley to go through it might pick back up to 63. Here hoping anyway...anything above that is unlikey at the moment. Hope it does not go down more!!

there is no valid reason why the bail-out should strengthen the Pound and/or weakening the Baht.

[petejones]

Blimey 60 again!

Why does the rise seem so slow yet the fall so sudden!!? News with people like Bradford and Bingley doesnt help. I think political turmoil over here played a big part in keeping the pound to baht ratio fairly stable. Maybe if the PAD kick off again we can get our 65 baht...

Have a watch of this and you may see why banks are so unsound:

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-9050474362583451279

[Marksamui]

I just looked on the SCB website and the pound has dipped under 60

Whereas a few days ago it was almost up to 63

A bit grim if you are depending on pounds.

It seems to be tracking the Euro more than the USD at the moment.

It has yes, this is nasty for a lot of people. I am looking to buy in Thailand and the rate is killing me as I have the bulk of the savings in GBP. I am going to have to wait for it to get better or save more to cover the exchange loss.

I hope that the $700b US bailout will help the currencies pick up. This last drop from 63 to 60 was went it did not go through, seeing as it looks likley to go through it might pick back up to 63. Here hoping anyway...anything above that is unlikey at the moment. Hope it does not go down more!!

there is no valid reason why the bail-out should strengthen the Pound and/or weakening the Baht.

Well the bearish sentiment in the GBP has been caused by the concerns in the banking sector. With a $700b US bailout of the US banking sector which really is to help a global problem it might stem the selling of the pound and give it a little support.

The problem with the GBP to Baht is really only on one side. The Baht is not moving much against other currencies however the GBP is weak against most, therefore it is a UK problem and support in the banking crisis might help it out. Anyway time will tell....

[cmsally]

Could the sudden fall again be due to a cash outflow to Ireland where they have just guaranteed deposits of 6 major banks. Seems likely, as the drop in the pound seems to be mirrored in the Euro.

In which case we might have to wait for some Euro and UK banking guarantees or at least an increase in guaranteed amount for it to get better.

The first large drop seemed to coincide with a gain in USD and as far as I can see the Ireland issue as well as the failure of the US bill to pass seems to run parallel to this drop.

[lannarebirth]

Imagine if the GBP fell to 1.35 vs $USD, while at thesame time $USD fell to 25 vs THB.

[cmsally]

Back to the "Good Ole Days" of 40Bt to the pound.

Are we looking at a 20 yr cycle

[lannarebirth]

Back to the "Good Ole Days" of 40Bt to the pound.

Are we looking at a 20 yr cycle

The cycles analyst I know (or did before his recent deah) calls it an 18 year cycle) I don't know if it's bottomed yet, but it if it has the above is what I expect to see.

[cmsally]

Actually I was half joking, but when you think about it 10yrs ago (approx) the rates soared and approx 10 yrs ago they were around the 40 mark (dollar @ 25).

But the difference then was the Baht was pegged to the dollar.

Some people are going to be praying for a very large margin of error to do with the pegging, me thinks.

[chiang mai]

Imagine if the GBP fell to 1.35 vs $USD, while at thesame time $USD fell to 25 vs THB.

The GBP rate you quote is not an unrealistic scenario in my book.

[Naam]

Actually I was half joking, but when you think about it 10yrs ago (approx) the rates soared and approx 10 yrs ago they were around the 40 mark (dollar @ 25).

But the difference then was the Baht was pegged to the dollar.

Some people are going to be praying for a very large margin of error to do with the pegging, me thinks.

another difference: everything in Thailand was half the price (or less) what it is now.

[chiang mai]

I understand the USD/GBP relationship reasonably well, sufficiently so to be able to make some pocket money from buying and selling one or the other .

I also understand the USD/THB relationship hence I think I understand the GBP/THB relationship as a result.

With the US Fed. strongly tipped to reduce their rate by up to 50 bps next week the GBP/THB exchange rate has the potential to turn quite nasty as a result.

What I don't understand however is why THB remains as strong as it it currently. OK, I know the BOT is intervening in the market to keep THB at around it's current levels but that doesn't begin to answer all the questions. I understand the two biggest earners for the Thai economy are tourism and exports and both have been badly hit and will continue to be so the way things look currently. In addition, the country is politically unstable and inward investment has declined.

My questions are therefore, and my apologies if this has already been covered and I have missed it:

1) what are the key reason why THB is so strong.

2) why would the government wish their currency to remain so strong, given the current environment.

[Naam]

I understand the USD/GBP relationship reasonably well, sufficiently so to be able to make some pocket money from buying and selling one or the other .

I also understand the USD/THB relationship hence I think I understand the GBP/THB relationship as a result.

With the US Fed. strongly tipped to reduce their rate by up to 50 bps next week the GBP/THB exchange rate has the potential to turn quite nasty as a result.

What I don't understand however is why THB remains as strong as it it currently. OK, I know the BOT is intervening in the market to keep THB at around it's current levels but that doesn't begin to answer all the questions. I understand the two biggest earners for the Thai economy are tourism and exports and both have been badly hit and will continue to be so the way things look currently. In addition, the country is politically unstable and inward investment has declined.

My questions are therefore, and my apologies if this has already been covered and I have missed it:

1) what are the key reason why THB is so strong.

2) why would the government wish their currency to remain so strong, given the current environment.

my uneducated guess, not based on knowledge or facts:

1. definitely intervention. BOT's war chest is still full to the brim. THB is (compared to other currencies) and as far as size and importance is concerned a Mickey Mouse currency which can be manipulated with (i exaggerate) pocket money.

2. official inflation is around 8%, real inflation for the average Somchai living in Nakhorn Nowhere earning 5-8,000 Baht a month inflation feels like 30 or more percent.

a strong Baht does of course not depress staple food prices which Somchai's wife buys to feed the family. that is the only contradiction in my theory "inflation fighting".

[barrella]

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-9050474362583451279

I make money in £ and $ so I feel I am being squeezed both sides even though money coming in wise I am doing well. Been a strange lack of contracts for me in Thailand over the last year but Singapore and KL have been good for me. Good on clocking up the airmiles.

Future wise

I am not sure what to do as by the end of Jan I will have my years spending money and after watching the cool link above I think I will take my party money this year and throw it down the drain as it is going that way anyway, regardless.

We are all going down so it is who will go down the fastest and the lowest.

See you all at the bottom

Looking at myself

35 years old got a small lump sum in the bank. Nothing amazing but will do for Thailand.

I own 2 properties UK fully paid, maybe a 3rd one day (inheritance) The 2 I own at present have a value ₤100000’ish but by next week the way things are going they could be worth £8.50

Me and the future wife here in Bangers have 3 properties between us (very nice places) fully paid and we WAS! looking at buying a commercial property in a good foot traffic area. The future wife has more cash than I do and 3 very nice businesses that make cash, soon to be 4. We both have no debts and I thought about 6 months ago we WAS! doing well. If I try and forecast the future we are looking pants. Then I look at others and think dear me it’s really bad so compared to other’s we are good but we are all looking pants, It’s all pants.

I have a friend in the US I was talking to last night on skype that in the last 3-4 weeks did not bail out his stocks and lost a cool mill and says no trips to Thailand for him again never, shame nice guy.

I have 2 friends in the UK that have 6’ish properties each (guessing) all on buy to let and they rented them out to pay the mortgage.

Well because of the way they did this and the interest rates increases on the mortgages payments the rent no longer covered these costs. They rushed to sell but because of the lowering of the house values in the UK they had to go below there original buying price thus loosing the equity and some, ended up costing them a small packet.

I am sure there have been others that have been hit by this.

I want to see next what is going to happen to some of the big pension funds (scary days ahead).

[JimsKnight]

35 years old and 2 properties with a third on the way?

dam_n dude you are chasing the bricks and morter on that one.

Being a perpetual traveler I really just play the rental game. I think the housing market is an overrated choice these days.

So with the big bail-out palaver now going ahead I will be watching the £ rate very closely.

Some say the £ will rise now because of the bail-out but I really do play it on the fence with this kind of game.

It could go either way really.

Edited October 3, 2008 by JimsKnight

[RetireSoon]

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-9050474362583451279

I make money in £ and $ so I feel I am being squeezed both sides even though money coming in wise I am doing well. Been a strange lack of contracts for me in Thailand over the last year but Singapore and KL have been good for me. Good on clocking up the airmiles.

Future wise

I am not sure what to do as by the end of Jan I will have my years spending money and after watching the cool link above I think I will take my party money this year and throw it down the drain as it is going that way anyway, regardless.

We are all going down so it is who will go down the fastest and the lowest.

See you all at the bottom

Looking at myself

35 years old got a small lump sum in the bank. Nothing amazing but will do for Thailand.

I own 2 properties UK fully paid, maybe a 3rd one day (inheritance) The 2 I own at present have a value ₤100000'ish but by next week the way things are going they could be worth £8.50

Me and the future wife here in Bangers have 3 properties between us (very nice places) fully paid and we WAS! looking at buying a commercial property in a good foot traffic area. The future wife has more cash than I do and 3 very nice businesses that make cash, soon to be 4. We both have no debts and I thought about 6 months ago we WAS! doing well. If I try and forecast the future we are looking pants. Then I look at others and think dear me it's really bad so compared to other's we are good but we are all looking pants, It's all pants.

I have a friend in the US I was talking to last night on skype that in the last 3-4 weeks did not bail out his stocks and lost a cool mill and says no trips to Thailand for him again never, shame nice guy.

I have 2 friends in the UK that have 6'ish properties each (guessing) all on buy to let and they rented them out to pay the mortgage.

Well because of the way they did this and the interest rates increases on the mortgages payments the rent no longer covered these costs. They rushed to sell but because of the lowering of the house values in the UK they had to go below there original buying price thus loosing the equity and some, ended up costing them a small packet.

I am sure there have been others that have been hit by this.

I want to see next what is going to happen to some of the big pension funds (scary days ahead).

I know several people who saw this coming and sold of 3 properties leaving them 3 fully paid, the rental market is strong in the South of England you can clear after paying agents fees £2000, thats a nice revenue for doing nothing.

The people in trouble are the guys that leveraged too much, a lot of people in in a good situation because of property. Also rents are rising.....

As with all sitautions there are winners and losers

[expatgaz]

Safe in the long run with bricks & mortor,short term blip on the housing front,nothing to worry abt.I've got properties in the UK which rent out and things are fine.Give it another 5-10 years things will be fine and property UP TO 50% more than now.Pointless panic selling.

EPG

[JimsKnight]

Safe in the long run with bricks & mortor,short term blip on the housing front,nothing to worry abt.I've got properties in the UK which rent out and things are fine.Give it another 5-10 years things will be fine and property UP TO 50% more than now.Pointless panic selling.

EPG

You could be right, you could be wrong.

I really think now though it is the waiting game.

The next 2 weeks will be interesting and we *should* have a clearer picture then.

Dr Naam will likely have his Prototype crystal ball fired up too

[barrella]

35 years old and 2 properties with a third on the way?

dam_n dude you are chasing the bricks and morter on that one.

Being a perpetual traveler I really just play the rental game. I think the housing market is an overrated choice these days.

So with the big bail-out palaver now going ahead I will be watching the £ rate very closely.

Some say the £ will rise now because of the bail-out but I really do play it on the fence with this kind of game.

It could go either way really.

Well they are all paid up in full so if it all goes really down hill I Have a place to live both here and in the sunny UK

See you at the bottom.

[cmsally]

Checked out the rates this evening and we are down to around 57Bt !

I was only joking a while back about down to the old 45 Bt. Seems to be a case of me and my big mouth again!

[syd barrett]

Checked out the rates this evening and we are down to around 57Bt !

I was only joking a while back about down to the old 45 Bt. Seems to be a case of me and my big mouth again!

By year end, I expect a green Thai 20 Baht note to be worth one English pound sterling.

[roamer]

Checked out the rates this evening and we are down to around 57Bt !

I was only joking a while back about down to the old 45 Bt. Seems to be a case of me and my big mouth again!

By year end, I expect a green Thai 20 Baht note to be worth one English pound sterling.

Well you could earn a lot of dough if your prepared to back that hunch. My bet is that you would lose a lot instead. You really think the economic fundamentals in LOS, not to mention the political situation, will keep the baht at its current heights ? Forget it.

[chiang mai]

I reckon the likely bottom on all of this is GBP/USD at around 1.60 and GBP/THB around 52. Not too bad if you're holding USD but distinctly poor if you hold GBP.