Business In Cm 2008

[Contractor]

An earlier thread about businesses was removed, probably for very good reasons.

So to start a general topic, I wonder how people see the economy mapping out in Chiang Mai in 2008.

I ask, because back in Europe, many economic forecasts show (albeit reduced) growth for 2008. However, there are fellow business owners I speak to who swear a (mild) recession started in September 2007.

I would be interested to hear from those in CM as to their thoughts for the local economy for the next year.

Thanks and Happy New Year.

[Donnyboy]

hopefully, the new govt will be quicker to implement some of the big projects around the country to get things moving. I felt that Thailand was in neutral during the last 12- 15 months, whilst other countries close by were catching up or passing us.

I get the feeling things will change for the better once they sort out the nominee issue and we should see more investment flow into the country.

However, the worrying factor will be the continued political climate and the division between the people, and the unresolved allegations of corruption of the Thaksin era.

But a local recession in CM- who really knows? Business wise, I think 2008 will be a similiar year to 2007.- very unpredictable.

[Ricardo]

I suspect that high oil-prices, causing higher air-fares, and the depressed state of their local ecocnomies, following the on-going credit-crisis, will cause a fall in overseas tourists arriving in Chiang Mai. This will impact many local businesses, directly or indirectly.

But will be partly-cushioned by spending from the growing number of farangs now living locally.

Exporters will continue to suffer from a stronger Baht.

Don't go building any new 5-star hotels or resort/spas !

[Ulysses G.]

I don't know any business owners that think that this is a particularly good high season. Even Ron at the CM Saloon says that it hasn't been that good and he has one of the most popular businesses in town.

Some hotels are doing OK, because Thais are renting a lot of rooms even though there are fewer foreigners, but Thais tend not to spend money on anything other than the rooms, so they are doing badly with their resteraunts, laundries, internet services and other amentities.

One of the reasons that I have invested in a few bookstores is that one is just not profitable enough if you want to live well and pay your staff a decent salary. If you have a few that are doing fairly well, it is about like having one decent restaurant.

[johnsjourney]

yes the Thai gold currency has gone up more than our western currencies, and looking at 'emerging market' stockmarkets versus 'developed' (submerging?) ones I am not surprised if locals feel wealthier faster then tourists.

But after living here for 6 years or so I notice a remarkable increase in the speed of construction outside town, the ring road superhighway that started work when I first arrived has suddenly been mostly finished this year, and two Rimpings, a Big C and a Macro have all popped up near Hang Dong. I suspect a sudden temporary drop in the 'traditional' ways of doing business. But back to normal again this year perhaps.

Oh well , I worked out a couple of years ago that 50 pigs would pay for our family lifestyle even the trips to UK!

edit: ... and a massive upgrade to the old potholed canal road to San Patong after years of talk

Edited January 2, 2008 by johnsjourney

[Sao Jiang Mai]

If you judge by the money being blown up on new years eve with those amazing fireworks then there is plenty of money around these days...that must have been the biggest fireworks show Chiang Mai has ever had. Fantastic. Fingers crossed for a great 2008. (And which the leader who shall not be named possibly returning, he will doubtless pour money back to his home province to give thanks to his electorate.)

[Ulysses G.]

(And with the leader who shall not be named possibly returning, he will doubtless pour money back to his home province to give thanks to his electorate.)

That's what I'm thinking!

[Donnyboy]

(And with the leader who shall not be named possibly returning, he will doubtless pour money back to his home province to give thanks to his electorate.)

That's what I'm thinking!

and reward us with another "night safari" idea perhaps

[tigerbeer]

(And with the leader who shall not be named possibly returning, he will doubtless pour money back to his home province to give thanks to his electorate.)

That's what I'm thinking!

and reward us with another "night safari" idea perhaps

and the long planned dual carriageway for highway 1317 to san kampheng

[BlackArtemis]

Or maybe underground powerlines!

[lannarebirth]

Hopefully the plan to extend the klong road north through the Army bases to the Mae Rim/Samoeng road will be back on the table. The junta scrapped that one first thing.

[cmsally]

It will be interesting to see how the (big) increase in hotel rooms plays out. Short of hijacking all the flights bound for the Olympics , I can't quite work it out.

More Asian, E. European and other diverse groups of tourists visiting, probably. But these will be making up for drop in usual Western markets.

Maybe a good year to start a pawn shop? But definitely not a good one to build a hotel or spa.

I would guess a bad year for construction industry, can't see too many people buying all the new houses popping up.

[tigerbeer]

I would guess a bad year for construction industry, can't see too many people buying all the new houses popping up.

banks are being very strict on their requirements for a housing loan.

[Donnyboy]

I would guess a bad year for construction industry, can't see too many people buying all the new houses popping up.

banks are being very strict on their requirements for a housing loan.

anyone know what the default % is these days on housing loans in Los? and Chiang Mai?

there seems to be plenty of empty houses around.

[Ulysses G.]

In my opinion, usually the absolute height of high season In Chiang Mai is from about the middle of December till the middle of February and then things slow down - but are still pretty good - until after the Songkran holiday. The coldest time of year.

This year, the best part of of high season didn't start till closer to Christmas and is over already (although it is still pretty busy).

I am really worried about the hot season because, even if it is not a bad year, I'm afraid that the Chicken Littles and Weezing Wingers will fill the Internet with so many complaints about the air that it will ruin what is left of tourist season.

Last year, the air in March was unusually bad, but it still cleared quickly, only, because of bad publicity, the tourists kept away for months afterwards.

Edited January 14, 2008 by Ulysses G.

[el jefe]

In my opinion, usually the absolute height of high season In Chiang Mai is from about the middle of December till the middle of February and then things slow down - but are still pretty good - until after the Songkran holiday. The coldest time of year.

This year, the best part of of high season didn't start till closer to Christmas and is over already (although it is still pretty busy).

I am really worried about the hot season because, even if it is not a bad year, I'm afraid that the Chicken Littles and Weezing Wingers will fill the Internet with so many complaints about the air that it will ruin what is left of tourist season.

Last year, the air in March was unusually bad, but it still cleared quickly, only, because of bad publicity, the tourists kept away for months afterwards.

"Last year, the air in March was unusually bad".

Usually it's just bad.

If you don't want us to talk about how bad the air was last year (not just March), why do you keep bringing it up?

[Contractor]

In my opinion, usually the absolute height of high season In Chiang Mai is from about the middle of December till the middle of February and then things slow down - but are still pretty good - until after the Songkran holiday. The coldest time of year.

This year, the best part of of high season didn't start till closer to Christmas and is over already (although it is still pretty busy).

I am really worried about the hot season because, even if it is not a bad year, I'm afraid that the Chicken Littles and Weezing Wingers will fill the Internet with so many complaints about the air that it will ruin what is left of tourist season.

Last year, the air in March was unusually bad, but it still cleared quickly, only, because of bad publicity, the tourists kept away for months afterwards.

"Last year, the air in March was unusually bad".

Usually it's just bad.

If you don't want us to talk about how bad the air was last year (not just March), why do you keep bringing it up?

Fair point, el jefe.

And my OP was about the local economy in general, not just businesses aimed at tourists.

[Donnyboy]

In my opinion, usually the absolute height of high season In Chiang Mai is from about the middle of December till the middle of February and then things slow down - but are still pretty good - until after the Songkran holiday. The coldest time of year.

This year, the best part of of high season didn't start till closer to Christmas and is over already (although it is still pretty busy).

I am really worried about the hot season because, even if it is not a bad year, I'm afraid that the Chicken Littles and Weezing Wingers will fill the Internet with so many complaints about the air that it will ruin what is left of tourist season.

Last year, the air in March was unusually bad, but it still cleared quickly, only, because of bad publicity, the tourists kept away for months afterwards.

"Last year, the air in March was unusually bad".

Usually it's just bad.

If you don't want us to talk about how bad the air was last year (not just March), why do you keep bringing it up?

Fair point, el jefe.

And my OP was about the local economy in general, not just businesses aimed at tourists.

Not sure about the small local businesses, but most of the big stores seem busy to me. Airport Central carpark is still full during weekends and Carrefour and Lotus seem busy as well to me.

Business as usual so it seems for the big players.

But the night market is quieter for this time of year, usually its jammed with tourists, and theres no flower show on this year.

[Ulysses G.]

If you don't want us to talk about how bad the air was last year (not just March), why do you keep bringing it up?

Because you are going to use any opportunity to bring it up anyway!

[PlaShadow]

In my opinion, usually the absolute height of high season In Chiang Mai is from about the middle of December till the middle of February and then things slow down - but are still pretty good - until after the Songkran holiday. The coldest time of year.

This year, the best part of of high season didn't start till closer to Christmas and is over already (although it is still pretty busy).

I am really worried about the hot season because, even if it is not a bad year, I'm afraid that the Chicken Littles and Weezing Wingers will fill the Internet with so many complaints about the air that it will ruin what is left of tourist season.

Last year, the air in March was unusually bad, but it still cleared quickly, only, because of bad publicity, the tourists kept away for months afterwards.

"Last year, the air in March was unusually bad".

Usually it's just bad.

If you don't want us to talk about how bad the air was last year (not just March), why do you keep bringing it up?

Fair point, el jefe.

And my OP was about the local economy in general, not just businesses aimed at tourists.

Not sure about the small local businesses, but most of the big stores seem busy to me. Airport Central carpark is still full during weekends and Carrefour and Lotus seem busy as well to me.

Business as usual so it seems for the big players.

But the night market is quieter for this time of year, usually its jammed with tourists, and theres no flower show on this year.

I receive fair number of friends and visitors every year and most of them visit the Night Bazaar at least once. I always ask them "what did you think of it"? (I rarely go there with them, I can't stand the place).

The usual answer is "all right, but nothing special and in no way does it live up to all the hype as being a necessary place to visit".

Here is my observation:

Firstly the fact that most of the stuff offered is now readily available on the internet (e-bay is full of the junk) or in shops in all major cites of the west, so there is hardly anything new or exiting.

Secondly, what ever is not "locally made" is cheap fake-junk from China. Consumers and tourists are far more familiar with this junk then just few years ago, plus the same crap is available world over.

Thirdly, the place really stinks at times and is simply unhealthy sometimes to visitors during the "smoky" months. I have stood on the corner at Mac Donald's and not been able to see the beginning of the road at Thape Road in month of March.

With the internet being the main search tool for most travelers it only needs a handful of negative stories about Chiang Mai, to turn potential visitors away. The competition is full on with the neighboring countries and it is a matter of fact, they can all offer better air quality then Chiang Mai.

Unfortunately the government or the major businesses here don't seem to care and for sure the "normal" folks could not care less. When I mean care, they can talk all they want, issue statements and etc., but in reality, nothing is done or will be done. Business as usual.

[Contractor]

Business as usual so it seems for the big players.

But the night market is quieter for this time of year, usually its jammed with tourists, and theres no flower show on this year.

Yes, I see plenty of trade at the major retail outlets, but the Grant Thornton poll last month showed an overall drop in confidence, respondents mostly citing political instability. Long term pressure on raw material prices is also a factor.

I wonder what the Olympic effect will be.

[Ulysses G.]

I have stood on the corner at MacDonald's and not been able to see the beginning of the road at Thapae Road in month of March.

With all the traffic and lights and signs, it is not easy to see on a normal day. Maybe it's because it is so far away!

[cmsally]

I was at Airport Plaza on a very busy day and yes lots of people. But they are not buying, it looks like eating only.

No one was carrying anything apart from a few edibles.

Everybody I talk to complains about the economy so I guess some of them must be right.

The Night Bazaar has got far too spread out especially over the past couple of years.

I had friends who were staying at the Yangcome and they thought they had covered the Night Bazaar at the new section, which sits on the old gas station at the intersection.

I wonder how many others do the same?

Actually I think if you sell a lot of the products in more atmospheric surroundings people will buy, the Sunday Market being a case in point.

Also a big drop in the number of exporters visiting if I am not mistaken.

I have quite a few friends who export to Europe/USA and they are simply not making the buying trips that they used to. I believe this is also the case for the Jap. market.

[Donnyboy]

I have stood on the corner at MacDonald's and not been able to see the beginning of the road at Thapae Road in month of March.

With all the traffic and lights and signs, it is not easy to see on a normal day. Maybe it's because it is so far away!

[cnxmike]

cmsally

I think you are right. I spend much time at the airport plaza. At weekends and national holidays this place is crowed. But that doesn't mean people spend money there. They probably enjoy walking in an air-conditioned environment without traffic. To be honest, where in any major Thai city can you do a pleasant walk? There are usually no sidewalks or they are used to park a bike. The traffic is exhausting and it's very hot.

That's why they come to the big shopping malls. You are right, they might eat a bite or have a drink or have ice cream at Svennsens, but they don't buy. I always wonder how the shop keepers survive considering the high rental costs.

[Donnyboy]

cmsally

I think you are right. I spend much time at the airport plaza. At weekends and national holidays this place is crowed. But that doesn't mean people spend money there. They probably enjoy walking in an air-conditioned environment without traffic. To be honest, where in any major Thai city can you do a pleasant walk? There are usually no sidewalks or they are used to park a bike. The traffic is exhausting and it's very hot.

That's why they come to the big shopping malls. You are right, they might eat a bite or have a drink or have ice cream at Svennsens, but they don't buy. I always wonder how the shop keepers survive considering the high rental costs.

quite a few dont, as there is usually a new shop or shop being fitted out most times I go