Exchange Rate Euro To Baht

[North]

Hi all,

I am thinking of bringing in some money for buying a car and possibly also invest in a house.

It seems the exchange rate from Euro to Baht is quite good right now, though it has been even better last month.

Since I don´t really know anything about exchange rates and the mechanisms that makes the exchange rate fluctuate, perhaps some of you could tell me, if it is a good time to make exchange from Euro to Baht, or is it better to wait ?

North

[Naam]

i hate to disappoint you North but nobody will have a worthwhile answer for your question.

[chiang mai]

i hate to disappoint you North but nobody will have a worthwhile answer for your question.

Almost unbelievably you would say something like that Naam, the answer is as plain as day and everyone knows that - and for the avoidance of doubt, the correct answer is Yes.

[North]

i hate to disappoint you North but nobody will have a worthwhile answer for your question.

i hate to disappoint you North but nobody will have a worthwhile answer for your question.

Almost unbelievably you would say something like that Naam, the answer is as plain as day and everyone knows that - and for the avoidance of doubt, the correct answer is Yes.

Brilliant answers, keep them coming !

On the other hand, if someone really knows something about the question asked, and not only are posting because they may have little else to do, then they are welcome !

North

[tijnebijn]

I think it would be a pretty good time to exchange Euro to baht .

The Euro has been very stable compared with other currencies ,

at least until now for the last 2 years .

The rate is over 48 the baht now , so I think a save amount .

The highest rate I have ever seen was just over 50 , the lowest

some years back at about 42 .

I don't think it is a bad exchange at all .

[Naam]

i hate to disappoint you North but nobody will have a worthwhile answer for your question.

Almost unbelievably you would say something like that Naam, the answer is as plain as day and everyone knows that - and for the avoidance of doubt, the correct answer is Yes.

:D

[Naam]

The highest rate I have ever seen was just over 50

that means you were not in Thailand in december 2004 when one €UR fetched >53 Baht

[Naam]

off topic: the "queen of the currencies" vs. Thai Baht.

Edited January 10, 2008 by Naam

[cclub75]

Even if Naam is (always) very negative and skeptical, I will give you my view : the THB will continue to depreciate versus Euro. 100 % sure.

CORE OF THE ISSUE

-We need to remember that, after the asian crisis in 97, all asian countries based their economy on exports by using the leverage of weak currencies against USD. True for China of course (the biggest "cheater"), but also Japan, Thailand etc.

All of them.

INTERNAL FACTORS

-Thailand (via the BOT) is currently trying to simply "shift" the leverage it had with USD for many years (since 97) toward...EUR.

-for that matter, their plan is really... obvious and simple : "it worked great with USD. Play it again Sam with EUR".

-how does it work ? By "managing" the THB/EUR exchange rate, like they do with THB/USD, and by focusing on European markets for their exports, they will be able to "offset" the losses on USD (historic trend : the USD is going to the toilets, of course the BOT can't change this global trend) and to keep the "leverage" of a weak currency.

-actually this policy is still valid for USD : the THB is almost pegged to the USD, like said a... thai finance minister in december ! ... Nothing less, nothing more.

Surprised, huh ?

EXTERNAL FACTORS

-Right now, it's obvious that interest rates will go down in USA (end of january). BCE just decided (today) to hold at 4 %. This opposite movement will provide further boost to the EUR...

-and you'll see that THB will depreciate against EUR. Mechanically.

THE JOKER

This view could be leveraged if I may say by the fact that Thailand has a big problem on short and mid term (in my opinion) : political liability.

It's such a mess, and we could have some very big, and bad surprise (you know what I'm talking about, it's the "taboo subject")... that could send the THB further into the toilets.

It's like the whole planet is currently trying to fxxx the UE, economic giant but without any political will... UE is a huge ghost ship... An easy prey.

Anyway, that's another discussion.

Edited January 10, 2008 by cclub75

[chiang mai]

Even if Naam is (always) very negative and skeptical, I will give you my view : the THB will continue to depreciate versus Euro. 100 % sure.

CORE OF THE ISSUE

-We need to remember that, after the asian crisis in 97, all asian countries based their economy on exports by using the leverage of weak currencies against USD. True for China of course (the biggest "cheater"), but also Japan, Thailand etc.

All of them.

INTERNAL FACTORS

-Thailand (via the BOT) is currently trying to simply "shift" the leverage it had with USD for many years (since 97) toward...EUR.

-for that matter, their plan is really... obvious and simple : "it worked great with USD. Play it again Sam with EUR".

-how does it work ? By "managing" the THB/EUR exchange rate, like they do with THB/USD, and by focusing on European markets for their exports, they will be able to "offset" the losses on USD (historic trend : the USD is going to the toilets, of course the BOT can't change this global trend) and to keep the "leverage" of a weak currency.

-actually this policy is still valid for USD : the THB is almost pegged to the USD, like said a... thai finance minister in december ! ... Nothing less, nothing more.

Surprised, huh ?

EXTERNAL FACTORS

-Right now, it's obvious that interest rates will go down in USA (end of january). BCE just decided (today) to hold at 4 %. This opposite movement will provide further boost to the EUR...

-and you'll see that THB will depreciate against EUR. Mechanically.

THE JOKER

This view could be leveraged if I may say by the fact that Thailand has a big problem on short and mid term (in my opinion) : political liability.

It's such a mess, and we could have some very big, and bad surprise (you know what I'm talking about, it's the "taboo subject")... that could send the THB further into the toilets.

It's like the whole planet is currently trying to fxxx the UE, economic giant but without any political will... UE is a huge ghost ship... An easy prey.

Anyway, that's another discussion.

Surprisingly your post is even more ridiculous than my previous post in this thread but let's not get into to that too deeply.

To the OP: everyone with a pro active, albeit passing interest in the well being of their finances, as it relates to currency movements, risk management or wealth protection has been hovering around this board for the past "x" weeks and the likely future position of THB/GBP, THB/USD, THB/EUR has been debated at length and almost done to death - try doing a search on this site and read the many posts. There's a lot of good information out there that is current but the bottom line on your question remains, Yes.

[Naam]

Surprisingly your post is even more ridiculous than my previous post in this thread but let's not get into to that too deeply.

there, there... Chiang Mai. i don't think Cclub's post is ridiculous. in my view it contains several logical conclusions. but markets and currencies have most of the time defied logic. markets and especially currencies are like wives. at breakfast time they seem to act quite logical and at noon they might act crazy due to some tiny and actually negligible incidence not worth mentioning or noticing (for normal human beings like husbands).

[Naam]

Even if Naam is (always) very negative and skeptical,

says WHO?

I will give you my view : the THB will continue to depreciate versus Euro. 100 % sure.

nothing but death is 100% sure.

CORE OF THE ISSUE

-We need to remember that, after the asian crisis in 97, all asian countries based their economy on exports by using the leverage of weak currencies against USD. True for China of course (the biggest "cheater"), but also Japan, Thailand etc. All of them.

partly correct

INTERNAL FACTORS

-Thailand (via the BOT) is currently trying to simply "shift" the leverage it had with USD for many years (since 97) toward...EUR.

no evidence for that theory

-for that matter, their plan is really... obvious and simple : "it worked great with USD. Play it again Sam with EUR".

-how does it work ? By "managing" the THB/EUR exchange rate, like they do with THB/USD, and by focusing on European markets for their exports, they will be able to "offset" the losses on USD (historic trend : the USD is going to the toilets, of course the BOT can't change this global trend) and to keep the "leverage" of a weak currency.

= impossible for many years to come

THB is almost pegged to the USD, like said a... thai finance minister in december ! ... Nothing less, nothing more. Surprised, huh ?

give me a break! can one call it a "peg" when the currency appreciates >20% against the "pegged" currency within 24 months?

EXTERNAL FACTORS

-Right now, it's obvious that interest rates will go down in USA (end of january). BCE just decided (today) to hold at 4 %. This opposite movement will provide further boost to the EUR...

a logical conclusion

-and you'll see that THB will depreciate against EUR. Mechanically.

that remains to be seen

THE JOKER

This view could be leveraged if I may say by the fact that Thailand has a big problem on short and mid term (in my opinion) : political liability.

It's such a mess, and we could have some very big, and bad surprise (you know what I'm talking about, it's the "taboo subject")... that could send the THB further into the toilets.

the thinking is correct. the expression "THB further into the toilets is...." = (my mother told me not to use dirty words)

It's like the whole planet is currently trying to fxxx the UE, economic giant but without any political will... UE is a huge ghost ship... An easy prey.

WHO or WHAT the EFF is "UE"?

[North]

Well, thank you all for contributing so far.

It is interesting to read your views, I hope to learn more.

Tomorrow morning I´m off for a weekend in Jomtien, so I won´t do any transfers this week and cannot post during the wekend.

WHO or WHAT the EFF is "UE"?

My guess is he means the EU.

North

[patatillo]

Sorry guys, but where is the exchange rate 48 baht for 1 Euro????

According to Yahoo, u will get only 43,6 Baht for 1 Euro.

[Naam]

Sorry guys, but where is the exchange rate 48 baht for 1 Euro????

According to Yahoo, u will get only 43,6 Baht for 1 Euro.

who the EFF cares about Yahoo? does anybody exchange €URos into Baht at Yahoo? does anybody bank with Yahoo?

http://www.scb.co.th/html/exchange/bk-txtexchange.htm

[chiang mai]

Surprisingly your post is even more ridiculous than my previous post in this thread but let's not get into to that too deeply.

there, there... Chiang Mai. i don't think Cclub's post is ridiculous. in my view it contains several logical conclusions. but markets and currencies have most of the time defied logic. markets and especially currencies are like wives. at breakfast time they seem to act quite logical and at noon they might act crazy due to some tiny and actually negligible incidence not worth mentioning or noticing (for normal human beings like husbands).

You've already pointed out the failings of that analysis so I will not belabor the point - but to suggest that THB is pegged to USD and that the Thai economy has no power of it's own is, well, ridiculous I'm afraid. It's also interesting to see how the dollar'ites have reacted when governments have switched from using solely USD as their reserve benchmark to EU - many seem to perceive this almost as a conspiracy or evil plot in the making whilst it's actually quite a sensible and overdue move.

[Naam]

You've already pointed out the failings of that analysis so I will not belabor the point - but to suggest that THB is pegged to USD and that the Thai economy has no power of it's own is, well, ridiculous I'm afraid.

"we all are mistaken once in a while" said the hedgehog, dismounted from the toilet brush and retracted his pecker

[chiang mai]

Sorry guys, but where is the exchange rate 48 baht for 1 Euro????

According to Yahoo, u will get only 43,6 Baht for 1 Euro.

43 is the offshore rate, 48 is the onshore rate.