Housing Bubble To Hit Los

[pkrv]

How unfortunate.... I was hoping that on my once in a while visits to the forum that some sense of reality may have settled in, but as usual the Thai bubble is continuing on apace and everyone it seems feels nicely insulated from the goings on in the outside world. How lucky for you all that you are so naive, as when the sh*tstorm happens it will barely register on your smiling faces.

I can report that things outside the universe of Thailand are going from bad to worse quicker than you can say "Jehosephat", house prices in the UK predicted to drop by a minmum of 20% this year alone and bottoming out at 50% of current values by many commentators. The USA may be in an even worse situation. But then this should have little effect on anyone in Thailand should it. Of course if the thousands of factories now closing in China who once supplied the USA are the only problem facing the Chinese economy then that shouldn't be a problem either should it? Neither should the beginning of a property crash in India!

No you're alright Jack!!

And of course the doubling of the price of rice on the world market in the past 3 months can only be good for Thailand as exports rocket, here, nevermind that it will mean prices doubling in the shops and restaurants as well, no none of it matters, Thailand will be fine as always and you'll all carry on as before, making lots and lots of mney, drinking beer and watching the sun go down over your last development.

I wish I was you right now I really do!

ourmanflint, I enjoyed the flint movies back in the 60's and for the most part I enjoyed your insightful post which is basically spot on. The only part where I think that you might have gone astray is your view of the U.S. real estate market. The worst is about over for the U.S. and there were only selected areas of double digit declines like in California, Vegas, Phoenix, Florida and Ohio, but keep in mind that many of these same areas saw a doubling of real estate values between 2004-2006. Those who bought before 2004 (the vast majority of U.S. homeowners) in the aforementioned areas are enjoying quite sizeable gains in their home values still, despite the recent 30% haircut in some of those areas. As you noted, China and India are going through their cycle of irrational exeuberance, and the eventual "end of the party" will soon be here and the hangover could have some substantial repercussions, particularly for the S.E. asian basin. Sadly countries like Thailand whose populace can least afford the ravages of out of control commodity inflation, are being and will continue to be hit the hardest. I think that the foolish ethynol policy in the U.S. coupled with the puposeful weakening of the U.S. dollar to mitigate trade imbalances has caused havoc in the rest of the world and I hope the next U.S. president ditches this assinine ethynol policy and reigns in spending so the dollar can continue its recent strengthening, thereby putting downward pressure on oil prices. I agree with you about what I have dubbed the "lollipops and roses brigade" here on TV, it seems no matter what facts they are presented with, the real estate market is always booming in Thailand and inflation is always a non issue. Alas, those rose colored glasses that Palm and some of the others have on will have to come off eventually as the hard reality of the situation will hit them in the face like a tsunami

I don't think the equivalent cost of a high end car in the west will bother PALM (nor me) at all; this is something to deeply consider. IMO - this is now about what you choose to do with the remainder of your life. OK if you are fleeing to a cheaper alternative I understand the point, and there was bravery in the decision, but given the courage required anyone who now finds Thailand expensive will need to find the next step and maybe to broaden their horizons - where is the next 'cheap and tolerant country’ that you can buy freehold in? I haven’t seen it yet.

[VegasVic]

How unfortunate.... I was hoping that on my once in a while visits to the forum that some sense of reality may have settled in, but as usual the Thai bubble is continuing on apace and everyone it seems feels nicely insulated from the goings on in the outside world. How lucky for you all that you are so naive, as when the sh*tstorm happens it will barely register on your smiling faces.

I can report that things outside the universe of Thailand are going from bad to worse quicker than you can say "Jehosephat", house prices in the UK predicted to drop by a minmum of 20% this year alone and bottoming out at 50% of current values by many commentators. The USA may be in an even worse situation. But then this should have little effect on anyone in Thailand should it. Of course if the thousands of factories now closing in China who once supplied the USA are the only problem facing the Chinese economy then that shouldn't be a problem either should it? Neither should the beginning of a property crash in India!

No you're alright Jack!!

And of course the doubling of the price of rice on the world market in the past 3 months can only be good for Thailand as exports rocket, here, nevermind that it will mean prices doubling in the shops and restaurants as well, no none of it matters, Thailand will be fine as always and you'll all carry on as before, making lots and lots of mney, drinking beer and watching the sun go down over your last development.

I wish I was you right now I really do!

ourmanflint, I enjoyed the flint movies back in the 60's and for the most part I enjoyed your insightful post which is basically spot on. The only part where I think that you might have gone astray is your view of the U.S. real estate market. The worst is about over for the U.S. and there were only selected areas of double digit declines like in California, Vegas, Phoenix, Florida and Ohio, but keep in mind that many of these same areas saw a doubling of real estate values between 2004-2006. Those who bought before 2004 (the vast majority of U.S. homeowners) in the aforementioned areas are enjoying quite sizeable gains in their home values still, despite the recent 30% haircut in some of those areas. As you noted, China and India are going through their cycle of irrational exeuberance, and the eventual "end of the party" will soon be here and the hangover could have some substantial repercussions, particularly for the S.E. asian basin. Sadly countries like Thailand whose populace can least afford the ravages of out of control commodity inflation, are being and will continue to be hit the hardest. I think that the foolish ethynol policy in the U.S. coupled with the puposeful weakening of the U.S. dollar to mitigate trade imbalances has caused havoc in the rest of the world and I hope the next U.S. president ditches this assinine ethynol policy and reigns in spending so the dollar can continue its recent strengthening, thereby putting downward pressure on oil prices. I agree with you about what I have dubbed the "lollipops and roses brigade" here on TV, it seems no matter what facts they are presented with, the real estate market is always booming in Thailand and inflation is always a non issue. Alas, those rose colored glasses that Palm and some of the others have on will have to come off eventually as the hard reality of the situation will hit them in the face like a tsunami

I don't think the equivalent cost of a high end car in the west will bother PALM (nor me) at all; this is something to deeply consider. IMO - this is now about what you choose to do with the remainder of your life. OK if you are fleeing to a cheaper alternative I understand the point, and there was bravery in the decision, but given the courage required anyone who now finds Thailand expensive will need to find the next step and maybe to broaden their horizons - where is the next 'cheap and tolerant country’ that you can buy freehold in? I haven’t seen it yet.

PKRV, I am not sure if you are replying to me or ourmanflint, in either case its difficult to make any sense of your post. First of all what does the cost of a high end car in the west have to do with the economic downturn and the recent skyrocketing inflation in Thailand? Secondly, when I referenced the populace of Thailand who can least afford the recent inflation, I was refering to the millions of Thai citizens who are still living in third world circumstances and whose lives are severely impacted by the recent commodity inflation (much of which has been caused by insane agriculture and treasury department policy in the U.S. as I noted). Finally, if Thailand is getting too expensive for you as an expat then I really feel sorry for you, because even with the recent inflation I would imagine that Thailand must still be a very inexpensive place to live as a western expat, as for my wife and I, we live in Sedona Arizona and we wouldn't trade Sedona for any place in the world, with that said if the new Thai government seems to stabilize the country then we might reconsider picking up a vacation home in Chiang Mai. Do try and loosen up a bit PKRV and try not to be so defensive in the future, you seem to have a bit of a chip on your shoulder, I hope that things improve for you and Palm shortly

[thaigene2]

Yes, some of these guys don't seem to understand that a downturn in 'the economies of people who have money' means that vacation/fantasy places like Thailand will also seriously suffer (as will Mexico, Brazil, Eastern Europe, etc). They like to turn a blind eye to the fact that this will have a knock on effect on any future resale value.

No one is saying they made a bad choice (for themselves to retire) but the future value looks grim - and the visa issue will always be there to haunt them. But I agree with PKRV - at least you can secure a freehold here. That's something for those not bothered about the number of months they can live here.

[ilyushin]

Guess I will get some good deals on new homes.

Housing investments are like kids there are good times and bad times, but usually they turn out to be worth it.

[pkrv]

Guess I will get some good deals on new homes.

Housing investments are like kids there are good times and bad times, but usually they turn out to be worth it.

And I assure you they last a lifetime

[palm]

How unfortunate.... I was hoping that on my once in a while visits to the forum that some sense of reality may have settled in, but as usual the Thai bubble is continuing on apace and everyone it seems feels nicely insulated from the goings on in the outside world. How lucky for you all that you are so naive, as when the sh*tstorm happens it will barely register on your smiling faces.

I can report that things outside the universe of Thailand are going from bad to worse quicker than you can say "Jehosephat", house prices in the UK predicted to drop by a minmum of 20% this year alone and bottoming out at 50% of current values by many commentators. The USA may be in an even worse situation. But then this should have little effect on anyone in Thailand should it. Of course if the thousands of factories now closing in China who once supplied the USA are the only problem facing the Chinese economy then that shouldn't be a problem either should it? Neither should the beginning of a property crash in India!

No you're alright Jack!!

And of course the doubling of the price of rice on the world market in the past 3 months can only be good for Thailand as exports rocket, here, nevermind that it will mean prices doubling in the shops and restaurants as well, no none of it matters, Thailand will be fine as always and you'll all carry on as before, making lots and lots of mney, drinking beer and watching the sun go down over your last development.

I wish I was you right now I really do!

ourmanflint, I enjoyed the flint movies back in the 60's and for the most part I enjoyed your insightful post which is basically spot on. The only part where I think that you might have gone astray is your view of the U.S. real estate market. The worst is about over for the U.S. and there were only selected areas of double digit declines like in California, Vegas, Phoenix, Florida and Ohio, but keep in mind that many of these same areas saw a doubling of real estate values between 2004-2006. Those who bought before 2004 (the vast majority of U.S. homeowners) in the aforementioned areas are enjoying quite sizeable gains in their home values still, despite the recent 30% haircut in some of those areas. As you noted, China and India are going through their cycle of irrational exeuberance, and the eventual "end of the party" will soon be here and the hangover could have some substantial repercussions, particularly for the S.E. asian basin. Sadly countries like Thailand whose populace can least afford the ravages of out of control commodity inflation, are being and will continue to be hit the hardest. I think that the foolish ethynol policy in the U.S. coupled with the puposeful weakening of the U.S. dollar to mitigate trade imbalances has caused havoc in the rest of the world and I hope the next U.S. president ditches this assinine ethynol policy and reigns in spending so the dollar can continue its recent strengthening, thereby putting downward pressure on oil prices. I agree with you about what I have dubbed the "lollipops and roses brigade" here on TV, it seems no matter what facts they are presented with, the real estate market is always booming in Thailand and inflation is always a non issue. Alas, those rose colored glasses that Palm and some of the others have on will have to come off eventually as the hard reality of the situation will hit them in the face like a tsunami

I don't think the equivalent cost of a high end car in the west will bother PALM (nor me) at all; this is something to deeply consider. IMO - this is now about what you choose to do with the remainder of your life. OK if you are fleeing to a cheaper alternative I understand the point, and there was bravery in the decision, but given the courage required anyone who now finds Thailand expensive will need to find the next step and maybe to broaden their horizons - where is the next 'cheap and tolerant country’ that you can buy freehold in? I haven’t seen it yet.

PKRV, I am not sure if you are replying to me or ourmanflint, in either case its difficult to make any sense of your post. First of all what does the cost of a high end car in the west have to do with the economic downturn and the recent skyrocketing inflation in Thailand? Secondly, when I referenced the populace of Thailand who can least afford the recent inflation, I was refering to the millions of Thai citizens who are still living in third world circumstances and whose lives are severely impacted by the recent commodity inflation (much of which has been caused by insane agriculture and treasury department policy in the U.S. as I noted). Finally, if Thailand is getting too expensive for you as an expat then I really feel sorry for you, because even with the recent inflation I would imagine that Thailand must still be a very inexpensive place to live as a western expat, as for my wife and I, we live in Sedona Arizona and we wouldn't trade Sedona for any place in the world, with that said if the new Thai government seems to stabilize the country then we might reconsider picking up a vacation home in Chiang Mai. Do try and loosen up a bit PKRV and try not to be so defensive in the future, you seem to have a bit of a chip on your shoulder, I hope that things improve for you and Palm shortly

VegasVic, you talk in riddles. I'm 36 years old. 80% of my assets are outside of Thailand. I retired at 28. I have a Thai son. I love living Thailand; I travel extensively business class and sometimes first. What is your problem exactly? What is it exactly that is supposed to be bad for people who have chosen to live in Thailand exactly?

Guys like prkv and myself bought in Thailand because we like it here. I can't think of anywhere worse to live in the world than in a trailer park next to VegasVic. Everyone knows Arizona is the place for people who can't afford to live in California.

Maybe you can tell us your age, your yearly income after tax, and your total asset value and we can see what a pillar of economic wisdom you are.

Edited May 9, 2008 by palm

[Heng]

Guess I will get some good deals on new homes.

Housing investments are like kids there are good times and bad times, but usually they turn out to be worth it.

And I assure you they last a lifetime

The dirt underneath does. And they aren't making any more of it... so much so that some people even do things like buying boxes of air OVER said dirt and speculate with its value.

[pkrv]

I have a horrible suspicion that we are now talking about the dead?

[sunsamourai]

Housing investments are like kids there are good times and bad times, but usually they turn out to be worth it.

And I assure you they last a lifetime

I have a horrible suspicion that we are now talking about the dead?

Hee Hee

At last a breeze of fresh air in this long and very interesting post. Thanks you guys, and to all the previous very instructive comments based on long-lasting experience from many posters.

I just bought my first 'box of air above the land', and on the way to buying a 'piece of dirt' somewhere else. I must admit I really enjoy the taste of it, and will continue every time I will get a chance ^^

May it last a lifetime...

Edited May 10, 2008 by sunsamourai

[Crushdepth]

A recession in the USA means a recession everywhere, people who claim otherwise probably have a George Bush/America Vendetta and are incorrect.

Wrong, well yes but doesn't everyone, and wrong.

Australia sailed through the last US recession and is doing pretty well in this one too. Asia doesn't seem to be falling over to me (and if it does blow up it will likely be due to internal problems). The US just isn't nearly as important to the global economy as it used to be.

Edited May 10, 2008 by Crushdepth

[Scott123]

.....

I just bought my first 'box of air above the land', and on the way to buying a 'piece of dirt' somewhere else. I must admit I really enjoy the taste of it, and will continue every time I will get a chance ^^

....

wow....you didn't own any property in your farangland before? you are brave that you bought your first property in a foreign country.

[donx]

.....

I just bought my first 'box of air above the land', and on the way to buying a 'piece of dirt' somewhere else. I must admit I really enjoy the taste of it, and will continue every time I will get a chance ^^

....

wow....you didn't own any property in your farangland before? you are brave that you bought your first property in a foreign country.

You may be right, but I didn't read sunsamourai's post the same way you did. For example, if I bought a 'box of air above the land' it would be my first since even though I have owned and still own property in farangland, I have never owned a condo. And perhaps when he/she says "first", this could mean the first condo bought in Thailand.

Again, your interpretation may be correct because the post doesn't say anything either way about purchases outside of Thailand.

[pkrv]

.....

I just bought my first 'box of air above the land', and on the way to buying a 'piece of dirt' somewhere else. I must admit I really enjoy the taste of it, and will continue every time I will get a chance ^^

....

wow....you didn't own any property in your farangland before? you are brave that you bought your first property in a foreign country.

You may be right, but I didn't read sunsamourai's post the same way you did. For example, if I bought a 'box of air above the land' it would be my first since even though I have owned and still own property in farangland, I have never owned a condo. And perhaps when he/she says "first", this could mean the first condo bought in Thailand.

Again, your interpretation may be correct because the post doesn't say anything either way about purchases outside of Thailand.

Well I agree - There is a first time for everything and bravery is required - The definition of a box in the air in Thailand is Freehold a % ownership of all communal assets INCLUDING THE LAND.

I read sunsamourai as a flippent comment that he/she is happy with their purchase of a condominium and is also looking to buy a house. Not only that but is looking to buy more.

[pkrv]

PKRV, I am not sure if you are replying to me or ourmanflint, in either case its difficult to make any sense of your post. First of all what does the cost of a high end car in the west have to do with the economic downturn and the recent skyrocketing inflation in Thailand? Secondly, when I referenced the populace of Thailand who can least afford the recent inflation, I was refering to the millions of Thai citizens who are still living in third world circumstances and whose lives are severely impacted by the recent commodity inflation (much of which has been caused by insane agriculture and treasury department policy in the U.S. as I noted). Finally, if Thailand is getting too expensive for you as an expat then I really feel sorry for you, because even with the recent inflation I would imagine that Thailand must still be a very inexpensive place to live as a western expat, as for my wife and I, we live in Sedona Arizona and we wouldn't trade Sedona for any place in the world, with that said if the new Thai government seems to stabilize the country then we might reconsider picking up a vacation home in Chiang Mai. Do try and loosen up a bit PKRV and try not to be so defensive in the future, you seem to have a bit of a chip on your shoulder, I hope that things improve for you and Palm shortly

Sorry VegasVic appologies I should have replied earlier (and sorry for the double post) - I'm afraid you got hold of completely the wrong end of the stick - When I used the cost of a high end car I was using this a comparitive measurement for the potential gains or losses on a property in Thailand (for a foreigner). Let us face it if this is significant as you correctly say then you are in deep, deep, trouble!

Agreed if you are using property as an investment vehicle then this needs to be considered as part of a risk management strategy for the short term. For me I am seeing a 60-65% increase in value of the 14.5 m THB unit I invested in back in 2005. Does this have any impact whatsoever? Most definitely NO! I do not plan to sell, this is a home.

Unfortunately you seem to be applying western behaviour on property ownership to Thai behaviour on property ownership. There is enough anecdotal evidence to suggest such a comparison is deeply erroneous. Additionally foreigners only invest in a tiny handful of the condominium projects. Most projects are exclusively for Thais (foreigners do not even get to know about these, nor can the juristic people be bothered to jump through the 49% rule hurdles to attract foreigners).

Thais were burnt before during the last collapse and have a good grasp of value. Again you are comparing impact across a much segmented market, which IMO is totally incorrect. It’s a bit like saying the Arizona property market behaves like New York. Bangkok is 10m people the same size as London and New York, it does not behave in the same way as say a Thai beach resort, nor Thai village.

[ray08]

PKRV , the asking price for your unit is up 60-65% but people can ask what they want ,but i agree with you on 2 points

1) you purchased a home not an investment , so the market in general will not effect as you are buying a place to live as your primary objective ,not about making a investment decision

2) And again Western logic has no place here in Thailand , property should be coming down , yet they are talking about it going up , again these are asking prices , are they selling ??? i really don,t think cashed up Thai investors care ,if it is not sold it is worth what they think.

Will the housing crisis hit Thailand , the short answer i beleive is NO , would i invest here NEVER , would i buy a home here ???

But i beleive that if foreign investors apply western logic or beleive asking prices on property , they will get very burnt ,

Enjoy your home

[pkrv]

PKRV , the asking price for your unit is up 60-65% but people can ask what they want ,but i agree with you on 2 points

1) you purchased a home not an investment , so the market in general will not effect as you are buying a place to live as your primary objective ,not about making a investment decision

2) And again Western logic has no place here in Thailand , property should be coming down , yet they are talking about it going up , again these are asking prices , are they selling ??? i really don,t think cashed up Thai investors care ,if it is not sold it is worth what they think.

Will the housing crisis hit Thailand , the short answer i beleive is NO , would i invest here NEVER , would i buy a home here ???

But i beleive that if foreign investors apply western logic or beleive asking prices on property , they will get very burnt ,

Enjoy your home

ray08 - An interesting reponse I don't quite understand - I have in the past been as open as possible. Why do you say "would i buy a home here ???" yet contribute to this forum's topic?

[donx]

Will the housing crisis hit Thailand , the short answer i beleive is NO , would i invest here NEVER , would i buy a home here ???

Enjoy your home

ray08 - An interesting reponse I don't quite understand - I have in the past been as open as possible. Why do you say "would i buy a home here ???" yet contribute to this forum's topic?

I would interpret ray08's "???" to mean that he doesn't know if he would or wouldn't buy a home here. There are many on this forum that are still trying to determine if buying a home here is right for them.

[pkrv]

Will the housing crisis hit Thailand , the short answer i beleive is NO , would i invest here NEVER , would i buy a home here ???

Enjoy your home

ray08 - An interesting reponse I don't quite understand - I have in the past been as open as possible. Why do you say "would i buy a home here ???" yet contribute to this forum's topic?

I would interpret ray08's "???" to mean that he doesn't know if he would or wouldn't buy a home here. There are many on this forum that are still trying to determine if buying a home here is right for them.

Hi donx - Yes I guess that is the answer, in which case I will add some additional information on Condominiums. I know you are more of an expert on land/house ownership and I do not venture into this area (I don't have a Thai partner)

ray08 - "PKRV , the asking price for your unit is up 60-65% but people can ask what they want ,but i agree with you on 2 points"

Well Ok as background I bought into pretty much one of the most prestigious developments in Thailand, specifically The Park Chidlom - Bangkok back in 2005, the building was two or three floors off the ground at the time, so a risk yes.

At the time unit costs were about 100k THB psm, and it broke the 100k barrier for the first time, as you may guess everyone raised an eyebrow or two! I actually own one of the cheapest units (bought for 14.5m THB), the penthouses were something like 80m. However increased construction costs would mean that a price of 200k psm would be necessary to build The Park today, so 165k psm is actually a bargain (however this is now Thai quota only). Secondary markets are in their infancy in Thailand there are plenty of sites to look at I generally reference Hamptons.

To give you an idea of the luxury that is available go to places like Central in Chidlom, Siam Paragon (and visit the Ultra Max cinima you will be in for a treat), visit The Oriental, Vertigo and Sirocco and there are tones more. And guess what by western standards 'ultra luxury' is cheap. Of course day to day living is also very inexpensive as well. Thailand is IMO up and coming and wishes to emulate Hong Kong - It is already a travel hub and possibly the most cosmopolitin destination in Asia

Here are some links to see what is possible in Thailand

http://www.theparkresidence.co.th/exterior.htm

http://www.theparkresidence.co.th/interior.htm

I hope this helps.

[backflip]

A rising tide lifts all boats, not just the big ones. I purchased a substantially more modest condo than pkrv and, it three years, the market value has risen 60%. If you count the devaluation of the dollar, the value of my investment has doubled.

Edited May 30, 2008 by backflip

[MJo]

A rising tide lifts all boats, not just the big ones. I purchased a substantially more modest condo than pkrv and, it three years, the market value has risen 60%. If you count the devaluation of the dollar, the value of my investment has doubled.

Where this 60% hike is based? Asking prices from the internet or did you actually sell your unit this year ?

Just asking as i do agree with ray08. I've been offered identical units in sukhumvit. Same building, facing the same pool and with same furniture set where foreign owner is asking 70k per sqm and thai owner 90k per sqm. Both units been in the market almost a year now.

In my opinion the value of property is "0" if you are not able to sell it. Then again does it matter if you live in and have no intention to sell...

[pkrv]

A rising tide lifts all boats, not just the big ones. I purchased a substantially more modest condo than pkrv and, it three years, the market value has risen 60%. If you count the devaluation of the dollar, the value of my investment has doubled.

Where this 60% hike is based? Asking prices from the internet or did you actually sell your unit this year ?

Just asking as i do agree with ray08. I've been offered identical units in sukhumvit. Same building, facing the same pool and with same furniture set where foreign owner is asking 70k per sqm and thai owner 90k per sqm. Both units been in the market almost a year now.

In my opinion the value of property is "0" if you are not able to sell it. Then again does it matter if you live in and have no intention to sell...

I am sort of getting a sense of people being unsure about making such a heafty investment as a home in Thialand. Let us face it everyone is different. If I was unsure about a country, or if I was not clear if I could make a go of it in a new country, I think I would rent for a year or two to see how I settled in. The worst reason for buying would be because you are compelled to due to circumstances. Again lets face it low retirment funds can be on the adgenda here, as a Thai partner can also be. I am pro renting but only short term. If you plan to stay long term you need substantial assets in the country you plan to live in otherwise you are open to exchange rate movements which can really, really, stuff you long term (basically you can down size if necessary to release cash).

[MJo]

A rising tide lifts all boats, not just the big ones. I purchased a substantially more modest condo than pkrv and, it three years, the market value has risen 60%. If you count the devaluation of the dollar, the value of my investment has doubled.

Where this 60% hike is based? Asking prices from the internet or did you actually sell your unit this year ?

Just asking as i do agree with ray08. I've been offered identical units in sukhumvit. Same building, facing the same pool and with same furniture set where foreign owner is asking 70k per sqm and thai owner 90k per sqm. Both units been in the market almost a year now.

In my opinion the value of property is "0" if you are not able to sell it. Then again does it matter if you live in and have no intention to sell...

I am sort of getting a sense of people being unsure about making such a heafty investment as a home in Thialand. Let us face it everyone is different. If I was unsure about a country, or if I was not clear if I could make a go of it in a new country, I think I would rent for a year or two to see how I settled in. The worst reason for buying would be because you are compelled to due to circumstances. Again lets face it low retirment funds can be on the adgenda here, as a Thai partner can also be. I am pro renting but only short term. If you plan to stay long term you need substantial assets in the country you plan to live in otherwise you are open to exchange rate movements which can really, really, stuff you long term (basically you can down size if necessary to release cash).

Sure, every case is different. In my case i'm looking forward to retire in next 20 years or so if i'm lucky enough to live that long. Been renting few years and propably end up buying one to live in sooner or later. But i still have 20 years to think this over if needed...

Was just asking as many here claim having "made" XX % profits with their units in past years. IMO there is no profit being made until you hold the baht in you hand. Rest is speculation and most of the cases based on unrealistic asking prices of Thai flippers. Sure you know the adds in Prakard "for rent 15k or for sale 15M"

[pkrv]

A rising tide lifts all boats, not just the big ones. I purchased a substantially more modest condo than pkrv and, it three years, the market value has risen 60%. If you count the devaluation of the dollar, the value of my investment has doubled.

Where this 60% hike is based? Asking prices from the internet or did you actually sell your unit this year ?

Just asking as i do agree with ray08. I've been offered identical units in sukhumvit. Same building, facing the same pool and with same furniture set where foreign owner is asking 70k per sqm and thai owner 90k per sqm. Both units been in the market almost a year now.

In my opinion the value of property is "0" if you are not able to sell it. Then again does it matter if you live in and have no intention to sell...

I am sort of getting a sense of people being unsure about making such a heafty investment as a home in Thialand. Let us face it everyone is different. If I was unsure about a country, or if I was not clear if I could make a go of it in a new country, I think I would rent for a year or two to see how I settled in. The worst reason for buying would be because you are compelled to due to circumstances. Again lets face it low retirment funds can be on the adgenda here, as a Thai partner can also be. I am pro renting but only short term. If you plan to stay long term you need substantial assets in the country you plan to live in otherwise you are open to exchange rate movements which can really, really, stuff you long term (basically you can down size if necessary to release cash).

Sure, every case is different. In my case i'm looking forward to retire in next 20 years or so if i'm lucky enough to live that long. Been renting few years and propably end up buying one to live in sooner or later. But i still have 20 years to think this over if needed...

Was just asking as many here claim having "made" XX % profits with their units in past years. IMO there is no profit being made until you hold the baht in you hand. Rest is speculation and most of the cases based on unrealistic asking prices of Thai flippers. Sure you know the adds in Prakard "for rent 15k or for sale 15M"

I think this is a fair comment - The one thing I have noticed on Thai Visa is that no one seems to have said they have had a problem selling their Condominium (houses are different) either. In fact buying quality units near the BTS has been flagged as a problem with low availabilty.

Is the point people here on Thai Visa rarely or simply don't want to sell?

[Scott123]

.... The one thing I have noticed on Thai Visa is that no one seems to have said they have had a problem selling their Condominium (houses are different) either. In fact buying quality units near the BTS has been flagged as a problem with low availabilty.

Is the point people here on Thai Visa rarely or simply don't want to sell?

You don't hear people on Thai Visa sell their properties....period. Most people in Thailand just hold on to thier properties forever....even if they are vacant.

What gets everybody excited are the new developments, not second hand properties.

[donx]

.... The one thing I have noticed on Thai Visa is that no one seems to have said they have had a problem selling their Condominium (houses are different) either. In fact buying quality units near the BTS has been flagged as a problem with low availabilty.

Is the point people here on Thai Visa rarely or simply don't want to sell?

You don't hear people on Thai Visa sell their properties....period. Most people in Thailand just hold on to thier properties forever....even if they are vacant.

What gets everybody excited are the new developments, not second hand properties.

I do remember reading some posts from Thai Visa members that were having problems selling their villa/condo. I also remember many more that have friends that are having trouble finding buyers for their properties. I'll try to do a search to see if I can find examples. One that comes to mind is from a member called TRIPxCORE. He had a condo for sale on the "wrong" side of the river. That was a few years ago. I don't know when or if he sold it and maybe it didn't take a long time, but I remember him commenting in a few posts over the course of some time that he had a condo for sale.

[MJo]

I guess most here in TV are either living in their units without intention or need to sell in any case or are long term investors renting their units out and are happy with the returns. Sure there must be some flippers around but doubt they will publish it here if they have trouble selling.

[pkrv]

I guess most here in TV are either living in their units without intention or need to sell in any case or are long term investors renting their units out and are happy with the returns. Sure there must be some flippers around but doubt they will publish it here if they have trouble selling.

Interesting for me this is buy signal (but I have already bought ). I know donx is taking an independent look at the (condominium) sales issue, but from a personal perspective I would have thought that Thaivisa would actually be a forum of last resort, for a desperate seller. I honestly cannot recall a problem in this area (but look no one is infallible, especially me I have problems just with spelling!).

Edited June 4, 2008 by pkrv

[roygsd]

Hi,

Some posters appear to be suggesting that Thailand's exposure to the US housuing crisis was relatively small and as a consequence this will not have much on the Thai property market.

However as most visitors to this site are non thai and presumably relate more to the condo market rather than land markets

I think that the condo market in thailand will be under a great deal of pressure because the banks around the world who have have their fingers burnt by the smooth US banks offloading their problems have lost huge aounts of money and with it by and large the confidence of their investors.

Condo's are heavily marketed to non thai's and that market is I hope very aware of the need for caution.

In the UK ( and presumably elswhere) th government is pumping large amounts of money and making serious pledges to finacially support the housing market they have also recently been forced to do a u turn in legal aid which they have long been doing away with.

A month ago the government re-introduced legal aid for people in a reposession situation, which should give you an indiation of how fragile they consider the uk housing/banking markets are at present.

Will uk and other european investors choose to invest in the condo market in thailand in the current worldwide uncertainty especially when on a good day there are some many disadvantages for a non thai before you start?

I dont think the condo market will collapse in thailand but I do think that the ivestment into that market will be drastically reduced over the next few years. I have no doubt that proposed projcects will now be moth balled as they are being in the uk at the moment.

I would not be suprised if there was not a significant increase in people looking to get out of the condo market for the next few years at least with the result that there may be a glut of condos for sale or rent, if properties remain empty for too long then the situation can only get worse.

I dont think anyone should take much comfort from the claims that thailand has escaped much of these problems, it is a worldwide problem and thailands condo market is heavily reliant upon overseas purchasers who are I hope, watching and waiting before dipping their toe into the property market for the forseeable future at least.

Just my thoughts on the matter.

roy gsd

[highdiver]

roygsd...

your question:

will uk and other european investors choose to invest in the condo market in thailand in the current worldwide uncertainty especially when on a good day

there are some many disadvantages for a non thai before you start?

I dont think the condo market will collapse in thailand but I do think that the ivestment into that market will be drastically reduced over the next few years. I have no doubt that proposed projcects will now be moth balled as they are being in the uk at the moment.

the answer is YES they will be buying and buying a lot more. in all price range.

the price of a condo in BKK is a fraction of what the same will cost in any European capital or resort town.

an individual looking not to invest but to buy a second home or a holiday home will find the prices in BKK a bargain.

you can also take into consideration that life in Thailand on a daily basis is much cheaper then in Europe.

Gasoline prices in Europe are double if not more then Thailand. and the price of food and daily expenses in a fraction of what the prices are in Europe.

a live in maid that cooks does laundry and clean your house will cost in Thailand around 7000 baht. in europe you will not be able to afford this type of high serviced life style. Medical cost are alos a fraction of what they are in Europe.

At the end of the day Living in Thailand is easy and you end up spending less for a better life style..and its those that understand this that are buying the condos.

If you are a retired individual living on your pension you have a choice: live very modestly in Europe and spend your savings to survive or a very high standard of living in Thailand for a fraction of the cost. same goes for retirees from US and the Pacific area.

My neighbor in Samui is a retired Brit. his pension is very modest in UK terms. he gets 1800 pounds per month. after paying the city taxes electric bills etc... he ended up living very modestly.

however he did have a small house in london. he sold it 5 years ago and bought a condo in BKK and a 30 year lease on a large beach house in Samui.

after that he was still left with a lot of change. he now spend his time in BKK and in samui and his pension which is about 100,000 baht is more then enough to live like a rich person.

As long as Thailand will offer Foreigners a high standard of life that will be more Value for money then the west. foreigners will keep on buying properties.

[pkrv]

Hi,

Some posters appear to be suggesting that Thailand's exposure to the US housuing crisis was relatively small and as a consequence this will not have much on the Thai property market.

However as most visitors to this site are non thai and presumably relate more to the condo market rather than land markets

I think that the condo market in thailand will be under a great deal of pressure because the banks around the world who have have their fingers burnt by the smooth US banks offloading their problems have lost huge aounts of money and with it by and large the confidence of their investors.

Condo's are heavily marketed to non thai's and that market is I hope very aware of the need for caution.

In the UK ( and presumably elswhere) th government is pumping large amounts of money and making serious pledges to finacially support the housing market they have also recently been forced to do a u turn in legal aid which they have long been doing away with.

A month ago the government re-introduced legal aid for people in a reposession situation, which should give you an indiation of how fragile they consider the uk housing/banking markets are at present.

Will uk and other european investors choose to invest in the condo market in thailand in the current worldwide uncertainty especially when on a good day there are some many disadvantages for a non thai before you start?

I dont think the condo market will collapse in thailand but I do think that the ivestment into that market will be drastically reduced over the next few years. I have no doubt that proposed projcects will now be moth balled as they are being in the uk at the moment.

I would not be suprised if there was not a significant increase in people looking to get out of the condo market for the next few years at least with the result that there may be a glut of condos for sale or rent, if properties remain empty for too long then the situation can only get worse.

I dont think anyone should take much comfort from the claims that thailand has escaped much of these problems, it is a worldwide problem and thailands condo market is heavily reliant upon overseas purchasers who are I hope, watching and waiting before dipping their toe into the property market for the forseeable future at least.

Just my thoughts on the matter.

roy gsd

Interesting comments but IMO I think from the wrong angle. 2 Million people just left the UK

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7411205.stm

I can see why the UK is pooing its pants, people are voting with their feet (there will be no money to pay for the MP's pensions, an issue already flagged by the treasury).

However I agree Thailand does need to do more to attract UK people as they appear to be going to:

"Nearly a third went to live in Australia or New Zealand. Just under a quarter went to Spain or France, and eight in every 100 went to live in the United States."

I don't think they have any intention of coming back to the UK.

It is not so much that western property is falling, it is where they are going that counts. Me it's Bangkok.