Benzene May Hit 45 Baht Per Liter & Diesel Could Hit 38 Baht Per Liter In The Next Few Days

[nothingleftbutfaith]

Yeah, I think that was bannork's point. Traffic "should" increase (as usual), but if it does not -or seems significantly thinner-, some might say that the higher fuel prices might be the cause.

Two days ago I showed my two little brats how to take the bus. It was 27 baht for three of us for a on kilometer trip, non-aricon. Driving is a lot cheaper, about 3 baht in a cool comfort of a private car.

People won't jump on buses to save money - it's an illusion.

I'd e intersted to know how you came up with the 3 THB figure.

[nothingleftbutfaith]

Yeah, I think that was bannork's point. Traffic "should" increase (as usual), but if it does not -or seems significantly thinner-, some might say that the higher fuel prices might be the cause.

Two days ago I showed my two little brats how to take the bus. It was 27 baht for three of us for a on kilometer trip, non-aricon. Driving is a lot cheaper, about 3 baht in a cool comfort of a private car.

People won't jump on buses to save money - it's an illusion.

I'd be interested to know how you came up with the 3 THB figure ....

[cclub75]

I'd be interested to know how you came up with the 3 THB figure ....

I know.

It's the cost for a 1 km ride with 3 people on a second hand motorcycle (vintage 15 years), with an adapted engine (running with cooking oil + NGV + a zest of whisky).

Anyway.

Back to basics : the oil crisis is not new. I mean, the datas are public since... Hubbert in the 60's and his peak oil theory.

Everything is under our eyes. We have 3 factors :

-supply

-demand

-reserves

For the 2 first : http://omrpublic.iea.org/indexpublic.asp

Those datas are relatively "secure". The supply is capped, because many countries have already reached their peak production.

The demand explodes. We don't like it, we don't believe it, but it's a fact.

As for the reserves, here lies the big bluff.

It's enough to know that in 1986... the OPEC countries announced... by magic... new astonishing datas for their reserves. Overnight. Because OPEC decided then to link official reserves to export quotas.... Those people are vulgar carpets merchants.

How on earth people, investors, politicians can believe the "reserves figures" released for instance by Saudi Arabia ? I mean it defies gravity and common sense...

Plus, remember in 2004 ? Shell announced that it had overestimated its reserves by... 4,5 billions barrels !

Voila : peak production + demand under amphetamines + big bluff of the reserves = oil crisis.

Oil crisis means price crisis. That's the first stage.

Then you'll see panic...

[Heng]

Yeah, I think that was bannork's point. Traffic "should" increase (as usual), but if it does not -or seems significantly thinner-, some might say that the higher fuel prices might be the cause.

Two days ago I showed my two little brats how to take the bus. It was 27 baht for three of us for a on kilometer trip, non-aricon. Driving is a lot cheaper, about 3 baht in a cool comfort of a private car.

People won't jump on buses to save money - it's an illusion.

It's like anything else, when they can't afford it, they won't partake in it. Hardly any kind of illusion. Unlike not factoring in maintainence into your vehicle's operating costs ...which indeed IS an illusion at 3 Baht or 9 cents per kilometer. I've never done the exact math, but the numbers thrown around by "car people" is 10-15 Baht per km. I haven't been on a bus in about a decade but I'm pretty sure they don't charge you for each additional km driven... most people probably also have to travel further than 2-3 kilometers as well.

Naturally the local haves are doing their best to keep the roads as packed as possible, but they are but a 15-20% minority. Most folks won't be able to afford their driving habits (not to mention all kinds of other habits) after a certain point.

Edited May 9, 2008 by Heng

[scotbeve]

When does the OREC (Organization of Rice Exporting Countries) cartel get formed in response to OPEC?

With historically high prices and world shortages, Thailand is well situated to take Chairmanship of the group as #1 exporter.

John,

Thailand already is the largest rice exporter in the world. This year is earmarked for 10 M tons max. To date, there's already been 4 M tons shipped out. Will there be enough rice for Thailand? Doesn't look it does it? Hope the weather is favorable!

[Plus]

Yeah, I think that was bannork's point. Traffic "should" increase (as usual), but if it does not -or seems significantly thinner-, some might say that the higher fuel prices might be the cause.

Two days ago I showed my two little brats how to take the bus. It was 27 baht for three of us for a on kilometer trip, non-aricon. Driving is a lot cheaper, about 3 baht in a cool comfort of a private car.

People won't jump on buses to save money - it's an illusion.

I'd be interested to know how you came up with the 3 THB figure ....

Any newish car can do 10km per litre. 1km would cost one-tenth of a litre, or about 3 baht. In my example of one parent with two kids I'd need to drive 10km to equal the cost of riding a bus, and we are not talking air-con.

10km is a long ride in Bangkok. It's like from Srinakarin downtown.

Add a connecting bus/boat and your cost doubles, add motorcycle ride from the house to the main road, and your cost triples, and it's only one way. A family of three can easily spend 200 baht on transport daily, on that money you can drive 60-80 kilometers, and it's a lot faster. You can drop your kids at school, drop the wifey at her office, visit the auntie, and still save two hours in time, and at a half of the cost.

Maintanance is nowhere near 10-15 baht per kilometre either.

Let's say you drive 20,000km a year, that would require two 10,000km "pit stops" at an expensive service center at about 2,500 baht. So, 5k baht for 20k km, it makes 0.25 baht per kilometer.

Even if your service intervals are 5,000km and you pay 5,000 baht, it would still add only 1 baht per kilometer. Insurance and registration might add another 1 baht, but most people would find cheaper garages and check their cars less often and skip on expensive first class insurance. Then there are LPG/NGV conversions or E20 capable cars.

Unless you see some major flaw in this math, driving works out to be a lot cheaper than using public transport for a family.

With adding custom mags at 20,000 baht being all the rage now I don't see people being so hard up that they can't afford to drive, perhaps Heng fell into a typical farang trap of thinking that he is the only one with any money in this country and the rest of us leave in abject poverty.

[Heng]

Maintanance is nowhere near 10-15 baht per kilometre either.

Let's say you drive 20,000km a year, that would require two 10,000km "pit stops" at an expensive service center at about 2,500 baht. So, 5k baht for 20k km, it makes 0.25 baht per kilometer.

Even if your service intervals are 5,000km and you pay 5,000 baht, it would still add only 1 baht per kilometer. Insurance and registration might add another 1 baht, but most people would find cheaper garages and check their cars less often and skip on expensive first class insurance. Then there are LPG/NGV conversions or E20 capable cars.

Unless you see some major flaw in this math, driving works out to be a lot cheaper than using public transport for a family.

With adding custom mags at 20,000 baht being all the rage now I don't see people being so hard up that they can't afford to drive, perhaps Heng fell into a typical farang trap of thinking that he is the only one with any money in this country and the rest of us leave in abject poverty.

I'm going by what car experts "say." Your numbers don't sound like you're replacing anything other than belts, spark plugs and fluids (and avoiding the major things like brake calipers, timing chain, shocks, starter, alternator, etc.). Which means you are either pushing all expenses to a really heavy 5th or 6th year and not averaging it out or considering these things as scrap (which just means someone else pays out the maintainence later... I dare say the poor probably pay more of this than the better to do that properly maintain their cars).

And again, I didn't say I was the only one with money, I said there is a 15-20 % moderately better to do minority of 9-13 million Thais who will probably just tweak their habits a bit (whether it's me consolidating some orchid shipment trucks on the way to the airport or people deciding that driving at 100 kph instead of 150 kph is smarter), with farangs rather insignificant in all of this in terms of effects on traffic anyway... with the majority of drivers more affected by price fluctuations of run of the mill commodities like food and gasoline. When one can afford less, they consume less. When they can't afford it at all, they won't consume it. Oh, I'm in touch with the plight of the average 'plai.' In real terms, what we're going to see is fewer of the Isuzu DMax and Toyoto Vigo D4D (again, on average... not saying all drivers of this group... I mean we have a few Vigos in the fleet as well)... the relatively gas guzzling 2.5 and 3.0 liter engine crowd. Many will be driving less and many won't be driving at all after a certain point. LPG/NGV conversions, not at 18,000-45,000 Baht they aren't because in all likelihood, a lot of people will be charging that to their credit cards AND paying interest on their alternate fuel... nevermind the people ALREADY charging their benzene.

It's all relative... in other groups more people will be choosing a 4 cyl. model Camry or Accord over the slightly more powerful V-6 model. 5 series and E-class models over 7 series and S-class models. Airlines flying their planes just a little bit slower and many airlines delaying their fleet retirement programs. Sure, there are plenty who will go ahead and do whatever they were doing before... and of course I'd have it no other way. It doesn't mean everyone has that luxury though.

Edited May 10, 2008 by Heng

[nothingleftbutfaith]

Yeah, I think that was bannork's point. Traffic "should" increase (as usual), but if it does not -or seems significantly thinner-, some might say that the higher fuel prices might be the cause.

Two days ago I showed my two little brats how to take the bus. It was 27 baht for three of us for a on kilometer trip, non-aricon. Driving is a lot cheaper, about 3 baht in a cool comfort of a private car.

People won't jump on buses to save money - it's an illusion.

I'd be interested to know how you came up with the 3 THB figure ....

Any newish car can do 10km per litre. 1km would cost one-tenth of a litre, or about 3 baht. In my example of one parent with two kids I'd need to drive 10km to equal the cost of riding a bus, and we are not talking air-con.

10km is a long ride in Bangkok. It's like from Srinakarin downtown.

Add a connecting bus/boat and your cost doubles, add motorcycle ride from the house to the main road, and your cost triples, and it's only one way. A family of three can easily spend 200 baht on transport daily, on that money you can drive 60-80 kilometers, and it's a lot faster. You can drop your kids at school, drop the wifey at her office, visit the auntie, and still save two hours in time, and at a half of the cost.

Maintanance is nowhere near 10-15 baht per kilometre either.

Let's say you drive 20,000km a year, that would require two 10,000km "pit stops" at an expensive service center at about 2,500 baht. So, 5k baht for 20k km, it makes 0.25 baht per kilometer.

Even if your service intervals are 5,000km and you pay 5,000 baht, it would still add only 1 baht per kilometer. Insurance and registration might add another 1 baht, but most people would find cheaper garages and check their cars less often and skip on expensive first class insurance. Then there are LPG/NGV conversions or E20 capable cars.

Unless you see some major flaw in this math, driving works out to be a lot cheaper than using public transport for a family.

With adding custom mags at 20,000 baht being all the rage now I don't see people being so hard up that they can't afford to drive, perhaps Heng fell into a typical farang trap of thinking that he is the only one with any money in this country and the rest of us leave in abject poverty.

What about the price of the car ?????

[Heng]

Details details. That's besides the point it seems. Maybe Plus is talking about drivers who won their cars in a raffle or lucky draw?

[Plus]

The whole reason for the argument was that people that have cars already will switch to public transport to save on their transport expenses. The price of the car itself obviously doesn't count.

Major items like shocks/tires (10-20k) need a replacement in about five years, the cost is spread over a significant period of time and doesn't matter much. Pretty soon we'll see even Japanese car makers offering free five year service+maintanance as a marketing gimmic. It costs very little.

Switching from driving to public transport simply doesn't make any economic sense, especially for a family. Not buying a car in the first place makes sense, but, despite high fuel prices car sales are rising to record sales this year, there's no sign of downturn due to high fuel costs in sight.

[Heng]

Plus, the fact is, you're arguing that no matter how high fuel prices go, there will be the same or more # of drivers on the road. Am I not correct in interpreting this?

What I'm saying is that at a certain point, more and more people will simply not be able to afford fuel. I don't know at what point it'll be for "most people," but I'd imagine it'll be somewhere between 3,000 and 10,000 Baht for a full tank of fuel. Is there any point in that scale where you would you say that taking a bus would 'still' be more expensive than filling up?

[bonobo]

That's nearing 3,000 baht for a full tank in our diesel Land Rover!

I shudder to calculate what an equally large benzene-filled tank would run.....

Our RR, before we sold it a few years ago, used to get a little over 300 Km's of town driving on an eighty litre tank. At 45B litre - over 10B per kilometre.

and a 3,600 baht check bin at the Shell station come fill-up time.....

that's more than airfare to some places....

Get rid of the guzzling hog then. Get a hybred or a motorbike.

TW actually wants to buy one - Toyota Alphard or something or other????

Price tag in the 4 Mil baht region for a bloody box on wheels. Buy a reasonably stylish car at the 2.5 - 3.0 mil baht mark and the extra million saved will buy ten years, or 500 tanks or 400,000 km's of fuel.

or

Could just wait another ten years for the price of hybrid cars to join the realms of reality / good value for money.

Unfortunately, hybrids do not seem to make any economic sense whatsoever at this point in time.

Soundman.

IN the west hybrids are only 10 percent more expensive than normal cars. But the reason they'er expensive in Thailand is because they don't make them here and they're all imported. And we all know that importing a vehicle adds 200 percent to a car's price here, if not more thanks to the exorbitant import tariffs on vehicles.

I have a Toyota Prius in the US and I love it (after driving a Lexus and a Jaguar.) I think it has it's own style, and it is a peppy, manueverable car. With fuel prices the way they are now, it takes less than a year to make up the extra cost for it when you compare it to a similar non-hybrid car.

I had heard that the Prius was going to be offically offered here in Thailand this year, and I have been waiting for that to buy a new car. In the US, California offered a $2,000 tax rebate for those who bought a hybrid, and if the Thai government was serious about conservation, they would reduce or eliminate the import tariff for hybrids.

[Heng]

I wonder why Toyota doesn't just add it to the half dozen other models they make here, export, AND sell locally?

[Plus]

Plus, the fact is, you're arguing that no matter how high fuel prices go, there will be the same or more # of drivers on the road. Am I not correct in interpreting this?

What I'm saying is that at a certain point, more and more people will simply not be able to afford fuel. I don't know at what point it'll be for "most people," but I'd imagine it'll be somewhere between 3,000 and 10,000 Baht for a full tank of fuel. Is there any point in that scale where you would you say that taking a bus would 'still' be more expensive than filling up?

Bus fares aren't frozen either. My point is that if drivers can't afford to fill their tanks, they won't be able to afford to take buses either, which is VERY unlikely.

Another point is that while fule prices are rising, they are not rising alone. There's probably a few months/a year lapse but eventually people's income catches up, too. They just charge more for whatever goods and services they produce, salaried men will be the last, but they'll be there. Inflation works both ways.

That's another psychological reason why people don't count longterm maintanance of their cars in their daily transport expenses - if the economy is doing generally ok, they'd expect their future incomes to rise, price shocks are temporary.

Hoping for reduction in traffic when car sales are reaching record levels is an illusion.

>>>>>

About the effect on the traffic - people have been adapting to high prices for several years now, they have already reduced their driving to bare minimum, there's no room for a significant reduction left, unlke in 1997 when the shock was sudden and people had to adjust in a matter of weeks.

Hoping for reduction in traffic when car sales are reaching record levels is an illusion.

>>>>>

From my observation of morning traffic, the cuprit appears to be company pickup trucks with green plates. They are the ones that provide that last drop that brings flowing traffic to a standstill. Number or private cars taking people to their offices is stable from Monday to Friday, but the green plate trucks running business errands come out or stay according to their business needs. On Mondays or after long holidays they come out en masse, from Wednesday on, business supplies have been taken care of, they are just busy selling the stuff to go and refill it on Monday again.

As I said, in my view it's the most likely explanation why sometimes it takes fifteen minutes longer to pass a difficult stretch of the road at the same time on different days. Over a whole journey it might take extra hour for me on Mondays comparing to Wednesdays-Fridays.

[Plus]

I wonder why Toyota doesn't just add it to the half dozen other models they make here, export, AND sell locally?

They need to provide a lot of local content to qualify for tax breaks and Thailand doesn't have local suppliers for hybrid technology yet. Toyota's chief engineer talked about setting hybrid Camry's production here once. It will take a few years to set up the manufacturing chain, I suppose.

[Heng]

Plus, the fact is, you're arguing that no matter how high fuel prices go, there will be the same or more # of drivers on the road. Am I not correct in interpreting this?

What I'm saying is that at a certain point, more and more people will simply not be able to afford fuel. I don't know at what point it'll be for "most people," but I'd imagine it'll be somewhere between 3,000 and 10,000 Baht for a full tank of fuel. Is there any point in that scale where you would you say that taking a bus would 'still' be more expensive than filling up?

Bus fares aren't frozen either. My point is that if drivers can't afford to fill their tanks, they won't be able to afford to take buses either, which is VERY unlikely.

Another point is that while fule prices are rising, they are not rising alone. There's probably a few months/a year lapse but eventually people's income catches up, too. They just charge more for whatever goods and services they produce, salaried men will be the last, but they'll be there. Inflation works both ways.

That's another psychological reason why people don't count longterm maintanance of their cars in their daily transport expenses - if the economy is doing generally ok, they'd expect their future incomes to rise, price shocks are temporary.

Hoping for reduction in traffic when car sales are reaching record levels is an illusion.

>>>>>

About the effect on the traffic - people have been adapting to high prices for several years now, they have already reduced their driving to bare minimum, there's no room for a significant reduction left, unlke in 1997 when the shock was sudden and people had to adjust in a matter of weeks.

Hoping for reduction in traffic when car sales are reaching record levels is an illusion.

>>>>>

From my observation of morning traffic, the cuprit appears to be company pickup trucks with green plates. They are the ones that provide that last drop that brings flowing traffic to a standstill. Number or private cars taking people to their offices is stable from Monday to Friday, but the green plate trucks running business errands come out or stay according to their business needs. On Mondays or after long holidays they come out en masse, from Wednesday on, business supplies have been taken care of, they are just busy selling the stuff to go and refill it on Monday again.

As I said, in my view it's the most likely explanation why sometimes it takes fifteen minutes longer to pass a difficult stretch of the road at the same time on different days. Over a whole journey it might take extra hour for me on Mondays comparing to Wednesdays-Fridays.

Yeah, I wasn't suggesting the prices for bus fares need to be frozen for a cost comparison. It doesn't need to be projected, because at current costs and fuel prices, vehicle operating costs start to surpass bus riding costs as distance increases (even if you try to make X connections to get where you're going, automobile operating costs still surpass bus riding costs, just at a slightly later point). True, your 1 kilometer bus ride vs. 1 kilometer car ride example math works, but when you increase the distance, whether in the city or even more so for inter-city travel, it's very basic math in that fuel/operating costs far exceed a similar bus trip (say <1000 Baht for any one way trip BKK-Chiang Mai or Khon Kaen for a bus ticket; even less so for non-air con, and that distance is easily 2000 Baht or more in just fuel costs for a privately owned vehicle... it's no different from folks who want to compare their own private aircraft operating costs to riding the bus... that's why people can't simply interchange bus riding for car or aircraft ownership). Bus riders aren't responsible for bus maintainence while car owners are responsible for their own car maintainence. But I'm sure you know all this... I think the main issue is that you just really like driving (as do I).

As for reduced traffic, I think we're aleady there. I'm sure you're still definitely going to get stuck in traffic all over town it's not a huge reduction (but what is clear that despite more and more cars added to the pile each month, it doesn't seem to be getting worse... which should be the norm), but spending much of my week in my car (again, I'm not doing surveys of the entire country or anything), just going up and down Ladprao Rd., Romklao Rd. out to the airport, up and down Rama IX, and doing the Bangkapi-Pattaya run a few times a week, driving is just becoming a little easier and lighter. Yes, for jaunts into the center of the city I take the trains from the MRT Ladprao park and ride. One's results may vary and I'm sure different people would attribute this to different causes. And I don't think wishful thinking is one of them, because for myself, I'd be just as happy if traffic was 2 to 3 times worse, as you know I'm not the one driving, so it'd mean more nap time, video game time, or work time in the minivan.

[Plus]

1 kilometer car ride example math works, but when you increase the distance, whether in the city or even more so for inter-city travel, it's very basic math in that fuel/operating costs far exceed a similar bus trip

For a flat fare non-aircon buses, yes, but with long distance journeys you get into another problem - you need to make connections, they don't take you straight to your office from 15km away.

Young people with no cars rent apartments close to their jobs, that's how they save on transport and time. Car+house owners don't have that luxury. For them it's not just a one bus ride - add songtaews, motorcycles, bus connections, BTS/MRT for speed, add these extra expenses for all othe family members -it just blows away all your budget calculations.

So far driving is cheaper, and if you want to see people switching to buses, the balance should reverse, and significantly - people won't give up comfort of driving to save 20 baht a day. Even 100 baht savings a day is not enough, imo. It's still peanuts, psychologically, especially with current prices.

(say <1000 Baht for any one way trip BKK-Chiang Mai or Khon Kaen for a bus ticket; even less so for non-air con, and that distance is easily 2000 Baht or more in just fuel costs for a privately owned vehicle...

You forget that people rarely drive upcountry alone. Add all the bus tickets for a family + motorcycle/taxi rides to and from the bus station, and driving looks super cheap again. It's definitely cheaper for a family to drive to Pattaya than travel to Ekamai and then pay for the bus and Pattaya's local transport options.

>>>>

Traffic has been lighter because of two months long school holidays. Watch what happens in the next two weeks.

[PeaceBlondie]

To the not-off-topic issue of vehicle operating costs, being debated by Heng and Plus: the leading expert company in the USA (starts with an R, I think), computed five years ago that the overall cost of operating a new subcompact car ran about 50 cents a mile. That could easily be 8 baht per km in Thailand.

Of course, any drastic price increases always cause consumers to buy less. It takes time for the buyers to read the writing on the wall and change their habits. But these gasoline/diesel price increases are so drastic that it will cause changes in behavior, quickly.

[Ijustwannateach]

I wonder what it will do to economics here when/if the city bus ticket starts to reach 20B a head, when much of the unskilled labour is still earning, say, 150-200B a day. No doubt another inflationary spiral with rising prices as businesses pass on higher employment costs to their customers- I think it's the only way; people can't get much more creative about being careful with their money here.

"S"

[Plus]

the overall cost of operating a new subcompact car ran about 50 cents a mile

That includes the price of the car itself but we are talking about people who already own cars. Maintanance and service costs are extremely cheap in Thailand - just go to the Motor forum and see what people say about buying second hand in Thailand, the initial price is high but maintanance is cheap, opposite to what happens in the West.

But these gasoline/diesel price increases are so drastic that it will cause changes in behavior, quickly

Yeah, one day on the buses/songtaews/motorsais/BTS/MRT and you'll jump straight back in your car because it's CHEAPER.

Or what do you suppose you'd say if your teenage daughter says she'd use public transport if you give her 200 baht a day for it (that's 6,000 a month). You'd think "fuc_k it" and say "No sweetie, I'll send you to school and pick you up at the Mall as usual".

Edited May 11, 2008 by Plus

[Heng]

1 kilometer car ride example math works, but when you increase the distance, whether in the city or even more so for inter-city travel, it's very basic math in that fuel/operating costs far exceed a similar bus trip

For a flat fare non-aircon buses, yes, but with long distance journeys you get into another problem - you need to make connections, they don't take you straight to your office from 15km away.

It does for some and it doesn't for others. Again, bus fares can indeed keep up with car operating costs to a certain point, but as stated, the further you need to go and the more you need to drive, the car transcends the upper 'max' limits you can spend in a day using public transportation (which will likely have artificially/subsidized costs much longer than fuel for private auto use will). Do you think you can spend 500 Baht a day on public transport? How about 1,000 a day? I know you keep averaging out with the 'whole driving your kids to school' thing, but for many people, just doing that is a luxury they can't afford.

Young people with no cars rent apartments close to their jobs, that's how they save on transport and time. Car+house owners don't have that luxury. For them it's not just a one bus ride - add songtaews, motorcycles, bus connections, BTS/MRT for speed, add these extra expenses for all othe family members -it just blows away all your budget calculations.

Yes, that's one way that SOME people save on transport and time. But there are just as many who don't have that choice, alongside car+house owners. Again, it's many connections for some and fewer or no connections for others.

So far driving is cheaper, and if you want to see people switching to buses, the balance should reverse, and significantly - people won't give up comfort of driving to save 20 baht a day. Even 100 baht savings a day is not enough, imo. It's still peanuts, psychologically, especially with current prices.

Some people will and some people won't. Those who have a choice obviously are more likely to choose comfort. Those who do not have a choice because of income limitations -that's great that you're optimistic that incomes will be able to keep up with expenses; but in reality "most" people can't even stay in the black, much less manage a positive budget- will choose what they can afford (which might even mean walking or quitting their jobs to seek work closer to home).

(say <1000 Baht for any one way trip BKK-Chiang Mai or Khon Kaen for a bus ticket; even less so for non-air con, and that distance is easily 2000 Baht or more in just fuel costs for a privately owned vehicle...

You forget that people rarely drive upcountry alone. Add all the bus tickets for a family + motorcycle/taxi rides to and from the bus station, and driving looks super cheap again. It's definitely cheaper for a family to drive to Pattaya than travel to Ekamai and then pay for the bus and Pattaya's local transport options.

And the reason why they don't drive alone (and imitate buses) is because it's cheaper to pile people in and average it out (just like a bus). Some people drive alone and some people drive/ride in groups. It all depends on one's occupation and lifestyle profile. Obviously folks who need to get around once they are there will more than likely drive, it doesn't mean they will when they can no longer afford to do that. If it were cost effective for us to send construction workers up to our Khon Kaen site via car (with 5 people in it), we'd certainly do so. It simply is not. So we either pile them into a diesel pickup truck (10 guys in it is right around the limit of what's "safe" and still somewhat economical) or put them on the bus -which I prefer because it's cheaper and there is much less chance of me having to go clear up a 10 body car accident -which needless to say is also more costly than taking the bus in the first place-. On the rare occasion that we have to convoy somewhere for a wedding or funeral, we all get in our cars, but like a lot of families, as fuel costs rise -not that we're hurting by a longshot, but old habits die hard and it's hard not to adjust/tweak a bit when most people are doing so-, some of us are just a little more likely to leave that V-6 or V-8 at home, and if need be some family members will be left at home. If you move across the spectrum a little bit, that translates to leaving the car at home and instead taking the motorcycle... or walking to the pak soi and then taking the bus. And that last scenario IMO is more common than the 'leaving the gas guzzlers' at home thing. For much of the population outside of the top 15-20% income bracket, the 'gas guzzler' is the Wave, Click, or lowest model Vios or City. Result: more people on buses, less people travelling, fewer people commuting solo, the combinations are endless really... but fewer people alone in their cars and hence fewer cars on the road (you can also interpret this as fewer cars THAN their would have been IF fuel prices were going down and the economy was booming).

Traffic has been lighter because of two months long school holidays. Watch what happens in the next two weeks.

I've been watching for a decade now. That's part of what I do. Heng is always watching.

Edited May 11, 2008 by Heng

[Plus]

Take the regular 100k/5year warrantee. It assumes that an average driver does 20,000km a year. That's about 70km on a workday.

It is simply impossible to do 70km a day on public transport, your average driver won't be able to do it even if he wanted to. And the cost? Only 160 baht.

That means that our average car owner drives a lot and really needs his car, and there are no alternatives for him. He can drive less, but after several years of expensive fuel there's simply no room for any further reduction.

Say you found someone who drives a lot less and can switch to public transport, say 20km/day - his car expenses are also significantly lower, fuel prices can double and it would still be somewhere below 100 baht. Peanuts. A lunch at a food court would cost the same by that time.

Another thing is that people who are more likely to be affected, those who bought cheapest rides like Jazz/pickups, also spend a lot less on gas/maintanance. They surely can't afford a ten year old 5 series that does 5km per litre and cost an arm and a leg to fix. They sold those years ago to second hand dealers.

[cclub75]

Meanwhile...

Bangchak Petroleum has increased its B2 diesel fuel by 30 satang per liter from 05.00 AM today (May 11th) onward. The price of B2 diesel now stands at 34.24 baht a liter, which is cheaper than diesel B2 at Shell gas stations by 20 satang a liter.

The President of Bangchak Petroleum Public Company Limited, Mr. Anusorn Saengnimnuan (อนุสรณ์ แสงนิ่มนวล), says the company has not yet decided to increase its retail prices of benzene and B5 diesel but may yield to global trends if the world oil price hits 125 or126 US dollars a barrel. (PRD),

[Heng]

Take the regular 100k/5year warrantee. It assumes that an average driver does 20,000km a year. That's about 70km on a workday.

It is simply impossible to do 70km a day on public transport, your average driver won't be able to do it even if he wanted to. And the cost? Only 160 baht.

That means that our average car owner drives a lot and really needs his car, and there are no alternatives for him. He can drive less, but after several years of expensive fuel there's simply no room for any further reduction.

Say you found someone who drives a lot less and can switch to public transport, say 20km/day - his car expenses are also significantly lower, fuel prices can double and it would still be somewhere below 100 baht. Peanuts. A lunch at a food court would cost the same by that time.

Another thing is that people who are more likely to be affected, those who bought cheapest rides like Jazz/pickups, also spend a lot less on gas/maintanance. They surely can't afford a ten year old 5 series that does 5km per litre and cost an arm and a leg to fix. They sold those years ago to second hand dealers.

More, less, or peanuts, it's all relative. At a certain point, some folks won't be able to afford those peanuts. It doesn't matter how much one "needs" those peanuts.

[Plus]

You assume that driving costs will rise alone, out of sinc with everything else, and take a substantially larger chunk of one's expenses while public transport costs will remain relatively unchanged.

The market doesn't work that way, the real costs of driving and taking public transport are linked, and the balance is in favour of driving, even with government controlled prices and bus companies losing money big time, as has been the situation for the past few years.

If people can't afford to drive, they won't be able to afford public transport, too. That kind of situation is simply implausible in a growing economy, we are far from a recession let alone economy collapse that would force people to walk.

[scotbeve]

I just wonder if there will be more door scratchers... I mean motorcycles... on the roads with the fuel prices skyrocketing.

[Heng]

You assume that driving costs will rise alone, out of sinc with everything else, and take a substantially larger chunk of one's expenses while public transport costs will remain relatively unchanged.

The market doesn't work that way, the real costs of driving and taking public transport are linked, and the balance is in favour of driving, even with government controlled prices and bus companies losing money big time, as has been the situation for the past few years.

If people can't afford to drive, they won't be able to afford public transport, too. That kind of situation is simply implausible in a growing economy, we are far from a recession let alone economy collapse that would force people to walk.

I'm not saying public transport costs will remain unchange. They are both rising, with driving costs leading the way.

They won't be able to afford driving before they won't be able to afford public transport. And again, I'm not saying this will be the situation for everyone. Many people still have some latitude with which they can shift their finances, but IMO most won't be able to as they are already stretched rather thin. I certainly understand that people would rather drive rather than ride the bus. People would probably also rather fly business class rather than economy and have air conditioning rather than fans. Unfortunately, the market doesn't work that way where people can simply choose what they want without regard to cost.

I agree though that the economy is doing relatively well for many, but certainly not all or even most. Some people will continue to drive on benzene if they can afford it, and some people will choose any of then number of suggestions that we've discussed: some will convert to LPG/NGV (some won't be able to afford to do the conversion), some will eat less, spend less on alcohol, go to bars or massage parlours less, and yes, some/many will opt. to leave the car at home. I'm not really making any kind of radical prediction here, this is what people have always done when the costs of anything spike (most employers will try to help out a little, but certainly not anything like spiking income/salary levels to go with those spikes).

[Heng]

I just wonder if there will be more door scratchers... I mean motorcycles... on the roads with the fuel prices skyrocketing.

Quite likely.

[Plus]

We are back where we started.

In the beginning I said that people don't drive for leisure anymore and they can't give up their cars like they can reduce eating out or massages (and they are not doing even that yet, are they?).

It's a fair point that prices of driving rise faster than prices of public transport, if it was really true. Let's see, ten years ago there was a flat 3.5baht fare, now it's 9 baht, almost three times increase, roughly the same as petrol prices, and bus fares are currently frozen until June, I believe, after that they'll probably move above 10baht, and petrol price increase doesn't account for savings on LPG or even gasohol, e20 is 20% cheaper for 95 benzene, for example.

So, the difference in growth between public transport and driving is non-existent or insignificant over a ten year period. At this rate it will be another hundred years before driving becomes too expensive relative to buses.

[Heng]

We are back where we started.

In the beginning I said that people don't drive for leisure anymore and they can't give up their cars like they can reduce eating out or massages (and they are not doing even that yet, are they?).

It's a fair point that prices of driving rise faster than prices of public transport, if it was really true. Let's see, ten years ago there was a flat 3.5baht fare, now it's 9 baht, almost three times increase, roughly the same as petrol prices, and bus fares are currently frozen until June, I believe, after that they'll probably move above 10baht, and petrol price increase doesn't account for savings on LPG or even gasohol, e20 is 20% cheaper for 95 benzene, for example.

So, the difference in growth between public transport and driving is non-existent or insignificant over a ten year period. At this rate it will be another hundred years before driving becomes too expensive relative to buses.

Well, where we started was pretty fun. Just like the Indy 500.

Some people are reducing dining out and massages, and many are not. I'm certainly not.

Like any kind of savings, for some, LPG, Gasahol, e20, and/or driving less + riding the bus is enough. For many, it's not enough. It costs me about 200 Baht more to fill my minivan tank now than it cost a year ago. Not a big deal, I need about 6 tanks a month so that means 1,200 Baht more. Again, not a big deal. For anyone making 9,000 (clerk in my office, who also drives to work) to say around 16,000 (average bank teller) Baht a month, there's only so much they can cut out before it's a choice between eating and driving.

p.s. I do think that the economy IS indeed doing rather well for many folks. It's just that I think that a good majority will have some difficulty (not end of the world difficulty, just slight discomfort... some of which will involve diet and transport adjustments) in coping with fuel + food price spikes at the same time.

Edited May 12, 2008 by Heng