Thai Inflation In 2008 Unlilkely To Exceed 4.5%

[george]

Thai inflation in 2008 unlilkely to exceed 4.5%

BANGKOK: -- Despite soaring oil prices coupled with a rising cost of living, Thailand's Ministry of Finance is optimistic that the average rate of inflation this year will not exceed the 4.5 per cent level projected earlier, a senior ministry official said on Monday.

Fiscal Police Office director-general Pannee Sathavarodom said her office was confident that Thailand's average inflation in 2008 would not rise above 4.5 per cent if average Dubai crude oil price stands at US$95 per barrel.

By Monday afternoon, the spot price of Dubai crude oil was at US$110 per barrel.

As recovery in local consumption and private investment continued through the first quarter this year, inflation as well was on the move, climbing to 5 per cent, sharply up from the 2.9 per cent registered in the fourth quarter of 2007, said Mrs. Pannee.

However, she indicated that the concerned agencies and officials would try to contain inflation so that it does not exceed 5 per cent this year, although several countries in Southeast Asia are expected to see their average inflation to increase to 6 per cent, she said.

Thailand has an advantage over several countries in the region because it imports oil only while those nations have to import both oil and food, she said.

Thai exports rose in value during the first quarter this year to US$41.7 billion, an increase of 20.8 per cent from the corresponding period of 2007, Mrs. Pannee said. The sharp increase was attributed to sharply rising export prices which jumped around 9.9 per cent coupled with the rise in demand for agricultural products in the world market.

Although exports rose significantly, Thailand suffered a trade deficit of about US$1.2 billion during the first quarter of 2008, she said. This was due to a sharp increase in the importation of capital goods which jumped 20 per cent during the period, compared to a contracted 8 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year.

--TNA 2008-04-28

[basjke]

Thai inflation in 2008 unlilkely to exceed 4.5%

That is realy good news because it indicates that prices from everything gonna go down again in the near future.As far as I can see is that almost all products in the supermarkets,rice,gasoline,alcohol and many more items have risen with more then 10 pct since january 2008.

Perhaps these items will not be included in the inflation calculator.

[bingobongo]

that really is great news if you do not eat, use oil, pay utilities and decide to live in a cave

otherwise, you are screwed

[Tony Clifton]

In another recent topic, members keeping track of their monthly expenses have calculated yearly inflation of 10% since 2003.

I know a medical doctor familiar with the use of a scalpel is acting as Finance Minister but how exactly does he plan to cut inflation by 50% with what's going on globally?

[Ricardo]

I suspect he may be planning to ask everybody to have a voluntary price-freeze, which would probably not however apply to brown-envelopes, which should rise to the maximum level possible.

[AGareth2]

Rice going up

Palm oil going up

dairy products going up

Diesel going up! Whats not going up?

4.5% a joke!

[PeaceBlondie]

By the third paragraph, the news clipping made no sense. Yes, if the price of a barrel of oil goes below $50 and a ton of rice goes below $500, we will have low inflation and you can ride a flying pig.

[billd766]

Rice going up

Palm oil going up

dairy products going up

Diesel going up! Whats not going up?

4.5% a joke!

What is not going up is my pension income but if that went up by 4.5% it would not be a joke but a miracle.

[slapout]

The article seems to be referring, part of the time, to what a police fiscal officer is saying. Would you trust a police official to retun you stolen car or motorbike, much less speak on the issue of inflation? Must have sent a rookie out to interview this person as a new hire joke.

[Seneque]

Thailand has an advantage over several countries in the region because it imports oil only while those nations have to import both oil and food, she said.

Oil only ? ... Thailand grows/manufactures EVERYTHING ELSE ... ?

OK, so oil only ... the estimate is based at 95 USD ... tomorrow we are reaching most probably 120 USD but who cares : Fiscal Police Office director-general Pannee Sathavarodom said her office was confident

[Plus]

I know a medical doctor familiar with the use of a scalpel is acting as Finance Minister ...

Scalplel?!? I wouldn't let that man anywhere near scalpels. He is an alternative medicine doctor. I'd take only medicinal cannabis from him, nothing else.

[soundman]

Propoganda. Pure & simple.

Just today the government authorised a 5 baht per kilo rise in the sale price of sugar. That's a 25% increase, however, some bean counter will counter that by saying there hasn't been a price increase in a while (totally ignoring government controls on the pricing) & say lets amortise that over "lets call it" five years and call it a five percent rise for this years official figures.

Official figures in this country are whatever the applicable ministry wants them to be.

Soundman.

[bingobongo]

do not raise interest rates and people get poorer via rampant inflation, raise interest rates and the global house of debt comes tumbling down.......what do you do......

April 25 – The Wall Street Journal (Nguyen Pham Muoi and Stephen Wright): "Vietnam's inflation rate was the highest in more than a decade in April, despite a raft of government steps to damp rising prices, which threaten to undermine the increase in living standards brought about by the country's free-market economic reforms. The consumer price index is estimated to have risen 21.4% from a year earlier in April…"

April 23 – Associated Press: "Singapore's inflation hit a 26-year high in March as food and oil costs continued to surge… The consumer price index…rose 6.7% from a year earlier after rising 6.5% in February…"

Edited April 29, 2008 by bingobongo

[bingobongo]

oops, i forgot one.....

April 23 – Financial Times (David Pilling and Kathrin Hille): “Japanese export growth slowed to its lowest rate in three years… Export growth for Taiwan and Thailand also slowed under the influence of the weakening dollar and US economy. The 2.3% year-on-year rise in Japanese exports in March, coupled with an oil and commodity-led 11.1 per cent jump in the country’s import bill, sent its trade surplus down 30% to Y1,100bn ($10.6bn)…”

[JetsetBkk]

Fiscal Police Office director-general Pannee Sathavarodom said her office was confident that Thailand's average inflation in 2008 would not rise above 4.5 per cent if average Dubai crude oil price stands at US$95 per barrel.

By Monday afternoon, the spot price of Dubai crude oil was at US$110 per barrel.

That really is a big "if", isn't it!

[sriracha john]

Thai inflation in 2008 unlilkely to exceed 4.5%

BANGKOK: -- Despite soaring oil prices coupled with a rising cost of living, Thailand's Ministry of Finance is optimistic that the average rate of inflation this year will not exceed the 4.5 per cent level projected earlier, a senior ministry official said on Monday.

Fiscal Police Office director-general Pannee Sathavarodom said her office was confident that Thailand's average inflation in 2008 would not rise above 4.5 per cent

and then.... less than 48 hours later....

Thailand raises 2008 inflation forecast to 5.0-5.5 percent

BANGKOK - Thailand has revised upward its inflation forecast for 2008 to 5.0-5.5 percent because of soaring oil prices, the Finance Minister said Wednesday.

Surapong Suebwonglee urged people not to be concerned about the revision amid global concern over rocketing rice, fuel, food and commodity prices.

"Nobody should worry. Thailand's inflation rate is still lower than those in neighbouring countries," Surapong said.

- AFP (today)

===========================================================

the weight-reduction clinic owner Finance Minister is doing a terrific job...... of bull-shitting...

[george]

Finance minister downplays concern over inflation surge

BANGKOK: -- Finance and Deputy Prime Minister Surapong Suebwonglee on Wednesday stated that this year's inflation trend is not worrying although it could be continue to be fuelled by several factors.

He conceded prices of oil, consumer products and transit fares are on an upward trend.

But he was not worried it would fuel the inflationary pressure as many economic forecasters believed the country's inflation rate this year would not go up to 5 per cent.

The projected inflation rate, which is close to the 5-5.5 per cent level anticipated earlier by the Finance Ministry, should not be of great concern because it is still below that of neighbouring countries such as Singapore and Vietnam where inflation rates stay at 7 and 16 per cent respectively, according to Mr. Surapong.

--TNA 2008-04-30

[Plus]

Bank of Thailand wants to base their inflation forecasts on headline inflation from now on. They think core inflation is meaningless in the current situation as it excludes food and energy prices. Apparently Thailand is the only Asian country that still uses core inflation as a main indicator.

No wonder they get such rosy outlooks. 4.5% a month is more like it.

[bartender100]

Here in the UK they tell you inflation is 3% but anyone in the street will tell its nearer 15%

[lazeeboy]

my shopping bill and petrol bill has gone up a lot more than 4.5% in the last month alone

[Thai at Heart]

From the Horses Mouth

http://www.bot.or.th/BOTHomepage/databank/...ce/tab77-1e.asp

The only person I know who believes that it is going to be under 6% is my bloody regional HR man.

And whoever said it is absolutely right. Ignoring petroleum may have some relevance since it is driven by world prices, but to ignore raw food items in inflation in Thailand is probably crimminal negligence.

Here is the composition of the “basket” of goods/services, used for the calculation of Consumer Price Index.

Total Food and beverages 36,06

Rice and cereal products 2,68

Meat , poultry and fish 5,32

Vegetables and fruits 4,77

Eggs and milk products 2,23

Seasonings and condiments 1,79

Non-alcoholic beverages 1,56

Consumable food - within the household 7,03

Consumable food - outside the household 10,68

Total Non-food and beverages 63,94

Clothing and footware 3,40

Housing and furnishing 23,86

Personal and medical care 6,04

Transportation and communication 21,99

Recreation and education 5,82

Tobacco and alcoholic beverages 2,83

Apparent percentages for basket of goods.

[astral]

An interesting "spin" on inflation figures,

when countries like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are predicting figures of 10%.

[sriracha john]

Guess we can kick that

" < 4.5% "

figure to the curb....

Pressure on prices will continue

Consumers need to brace themselves for a higher cost of living. Inflation in the next few months will continue surging beyond

the 6.2-per-cent level seen in April as high oil prices are pushing up the prices of food and non-food items.

Inflation in April, which was the highest in 23 months, raised the four-month average to 5.3 per cent year on year. It is moving near 8.1 per cent, last seen in 1998. Thailand's inflation peaked at 20 per cent in 1973 during the world oil shock.

- The Nation (today)

Edited May 1, 2008 by sriracha john

[TAWP]

Thai inflation in 2008 unlilkely to exceed 4.5%

BANGKOK: -- Despite soaring oil prices coupled with a rising cost of living, Thailand's Ministry of Finance is optimistic that the average rate of inflation this year will not exceed the 4.5 per cent level projected earlier, a senior ministry official said on Monday.

Fiscal Police Office director-general Pannee Sathavarodom said her office was confident that Thailand's average inflation in 2008 would not rise above 4.5 per cent

and then.... less than 48 hours later....

Thailand raises 2008 inflation forecast to 5.0-5.5 percent

BANGKOK - Thailand has revised upward its inflation forecast for 2008 to 5.0-5.5 percent because of soaring oil prices, the Finance Minister said Wednesday.

Surapong Suebwonglee urged people not to be concerned about the revision amid global concern over rocketing rice, fuel, food and commodity prices.

"Nobody should worry. Thailand's inflation rate is still lower than those in neighbouring countries," Surapong said.

- AFP (today)

===========================================================

the weight-reduction clinic owner Finance Minister is doing a terrific job...... of bull-shitting...

Well, he has experience in slimming figures...

Edited May 2, 2008 by TAWP

[bendix]

Wouldn't one inflation-dampening factor be the fact that the stronger baht makes imported goods cheaper. Food and fuel are more expensive for obvious reasons, but other consumer goods (especially big ticket items) seem to be pretty stable.

[slapout]

The dampening effect may be there, if it is used in this way, but have not noticed the village people purchaseing any imported goods lately with the exception of fertilizer. The majority of the people in the world do not seem concerned with international exchange rates, in fact if questioned may not know what the subject pertained to.

[VegasVic]

Rice going up

Palm oil going up

dairy products going up

Diesel going up! Whats not going up?

4.5% a joke!

Perhaps this bureaucrat is correct, but failed to mention that the 4.5% inflation rate was a monthly rise and not an annualized rate In phone conversations with various members of my wifes family in the Korat area, it seems like their inflation for staple items has risen about 20% so far this year, that would equate to 5%/month, so that 4.5% figure might not be far off if it was meant to be a monthly inflation number!

[PeaceBlondie]

No, Vegas Vic, the opening post begins, "BANGKOK: -- Despite soaring oil prices coupled with a rising cost of living, Thailand's Ministry of Finance is optimistic that the average rate of inflation this year will not exceed the 4.5 per cent level projected earlier, a senior ministry official said on Monday." That is annual. A monthly increase of 4.5%, compounded, is 69.6% annually.

[VegasVic]

No, Vegas Vic, the opening post begins, "BANGKOK: -- Despite soaring oil prices coupled with a rising cost of living, Thailand's Ministry of Finance is optimistic that the average rate of inflation this year will not exceed the 4.5 per cent level projected earlier, a senior ministry official said on Monday." That is annual. A monthly increase of 4.5%, compounded, is 69.6% annually.

I know PB, my facietous nature was at play the aforementioned post. The fact remains, that from petrol to pork to rice, Thailand has already experienced a 20% inflation rate so far this year in every day staple products, so for the government to come out and state that inflation should not exceed 4.5% for the year, just goes to show how out of touch the Thai government is.

[Briggsy]

Previously there has been some cynicism regarding the truth of the inflation figures released by the government.