Thai Stock Exchange Goin' Down

[StrongView]

Asia Business Report on BBC

2 minute spot about how last year (as we all know) Thailand's economy was the best performer in the region. Well, apparently (I don't follow these things too closely), the Thai Stock Exchange is down 17% from last year. I don't wish bad things on the Thai's, but I certainly look forward to my Dollar to Baht exchange goin' up up up!

Any thoughts on this? Anyone know the contributors? It was mentioned about Avian Flu....but anyone have any predictions on where this could go?

[pnustedt]

The SET did reach a peak at the end of last year after a year on year growth of 135%, it has subsequently come back by about 17%. The forecast growth of the Thai economy is currently at 6 to 7% p.a. according to CNBC last night.

[Ajarn]

I think judging any real-life condition in Thailand by how the local stock market flows is a mistake, I feel. A zillion times more corrupt than the NYSE... Ups and downs have more to do with inside manipulation, I think. One big reason why I don't play the market here. You simply can't trust that the market moves are based on actual business conditions...

[StrongView]

Very good point. As I've seen just working with a large amount of Thai's in government offices here....WOW is all I can say to how they manipulate EVERYTHING to look good. No disrespect to Thai's of course...I just get suprised all the time at the lengths to which they go to look good and the rationale that follows.

[phormio]

Very good point.  As I've seen just working with a large amount of Thai's in government offices here....WOW is all I can say to how they manipulate EVERYTHING to look good.  No disrespect to Thai's of course...I just get suprised all the time at the lengths to which they go to look good and the rationale that follows.

If you've been paying attention the business press in the US for the last three years you'll see that the US president, congress, regulatory agencies as well as senior leaders in almost all major industries are experts at cooking the books. Perhaps the Thais have been paying attention and learning a trick or two from the good-ole-USA.

The greatest concentration of wealth, thus the worst corruption in the history of the world.

Where would that be?

I JUST don't know.

[ovenman]

Any thoughts on this?  Anyone know the contributors?  It was mentioned about Avian Flu....but anyone have any predictions on where this could go?

I don't know that it's the case that the Thai stock market is in such a big decline at the moment as it is that a correction is occurring in response to the artificial growth the stock market experienced in 2003. I doubt last year's phenomenal numbers were based in any sort of reality.

[Ajarn]

I doubt last year's phenomenal numbers were based in any sort of reality. 

I hear ya'... I just can't envision ever trusting statistics coming from this government

[cojones]

Thaksin booming economy is like a house built of playing cards , one puff and it will come tumbling down , just like 97 .

bird flu and numerous bans on chicken exports , daily killings in the south and it being a relative no-go area for civil servants .

and surging oil prices causing a trade deficit and cutting thais spending power.

if these oil prices keep on going up things can only get worse as Thailand has no natural energy resources .

and how long before the early clsoing times will deter tourists ?

[sriracha john]

To judge the true nature of the SET, one needs to look no further than the number one stockholder in the SET..... Thaksin's son.

Heng may correct the rough figures I recall, but something like 10 families control 80% of the entire market.

[Ajarn]

Thaksin booming economy is like a house built of playing cards , one puff and it will come tumbling down , just like 97 .

bird flu and numerous  bans on chicken exports , daily killings in the south and it being a relative no-go area for civil servants .

and surging oil prices causing a trade deficit and cutting thais spending power.

if these oil prices keep on going up things can only get worse as Thailand has no natural energy resources .

and how long before the early clsoing times will deter tourists ?

If the tourist is to be deterred by earlier closing hours, I hope they stop coming soon

Thailand could use more tourists of higher quality, imo. There is a lot more to Thailand than drinking, partying, and whoring....

[VanZam]

Pretty sure its a combo of cooked books in the earlier years so as not to scare away investors, and the amazing amount of credit people are using to buy stuff like the all important Merc or BMW.

They sold more Mercs in thailand last year than they did in Germany, 98% of them were on credit.

Another crash WILL happen its not a matter of if, its a matter of when. In Tuksins great attempt to transform thailand into a Singapore replica, hes gone straight to the cosmetics of Thailand and has ignored a strong ecconomic base.

But then again, Tuksin treating Thailand like a personel business is nothing new, I really gotta wonder when people are going to protest to him being prime minster and owning (under his wifes name) the Shin Corp, just a little bit of a conflict of interests.