I'm not entirely sure that a reduction in tourism is that big a deal for those of that have retired here. A few bars etc. may close from lack of business but that does not really impact me. Housing stops selling, ho hum I have no desire to sell mine anyway. Some of the people will lose their jobs, they have my sympathy but other than reducing the number of people on the street and in the mall, I don't see the impact on the retiree.

Don't misinterpet this to mean I don't care about the Thai people I do, but it is something we have no control over. If the cost of living rises here from it, it is doubtfull that it will rise any more than it will in the US, Europe or Australia.

Keep in mind here they are very family oriented. If they lose their job they can most likely go to their home village and move in with the relatives. More people live together they split the cost and suffer less. So i would like to see Thailand prosper but if it dosen't it does not impact my income or my lifestyle all that much.

kudos on being in Thailand so long!

Agreed that it is extremely complicated, but while you are on the side of the fence that is saying Thailand is relatively immune to external economic pressures, I am in no doubt on this side of the fence that it is not. We have barely begun to recoup the full implications of the sub prime crisis in the US and its effect on the home economies of Europe.

As the original question was "whether farang tourism will come to a halt" I think you are misguided if you think that events in the USA and UK will not have serious consequences for the tourist industry in Thailand. But please keep on spinning the old line if it makes you feel happy.

OK, I'll try to put it in simpler and blunter terms so that even you understand:

- Yes, the US real estate market is in a shambles.

- Yes, the US dollar has been falling for quite a while.

- Yes, the currently high oil prices impacts the US conceivably more than any other country.

- Yes, this will probably impact the number of US visitors to Thailand.

- No, the US is not the world and the jury is still out on to what extent the US "crisis" will impact the rest of the world.

Oil prices are high the world over. (This, however, benefits oil producing countries like the Middle East, Russia, Norway, Venezuela, Brazil...) It is still not clear whether this is a permanent price shift or a "bump" in the curve.

What I have been trying to say is that your view of the world is extremely US-centric. The US is the world's biggest economy, but it is not the whole world. Furthermore, US visitors constitute a mere 4.3% of foreign arrivals to Thailand. Even if this share had dropped to 0.0% last year, total foreign arrivals would still have grown.

Wake up, there is a big world out there, some 6 billion people who don't live in the US I'm not saying that Thailand is "immune to external economic pressures", I'm saying that its tourism industry does not stand or fall with the US economy.

/ Priceless

Mass tourism needs mass development, but don't pave paradise to put up a parking lot.

.... which is precisely what has happened on Phuket. Even locally born Thais have remarked to me how "ugly" parts of Phuket have become, due to the deforestation and subsequent building. It's seen (by some) as progress but......

IMO, Phuket sucks, but there will always be tourism so long as it remains comparatively safe and free from violence.

The farang picture might change e.g. Russians and Chinese instead of Anglos but what else can they do with Phuket?

It was built on tourism, like Pattaya and there's no changing that.

The US is the world's biggest economy, ...

Sorry,

The U.S.A. was the world's biggest economy...

Since 2007 the world's biggest economy is the E.U.

The US is the world's biggest economy, ...

Sorry,

The U.S.A. was the world's biggest economy...

Since 2007 the world's biggest economy is the E.U.

Assuming that you count the E.U. as one economy, which I find somewhat doubtful (I'm from one of the sovereign countries within the E.U. )

/ Priceless

Mass tourism needs mass development, but don't pave paradise to put up a parking lot.

.... which is precisely what has happened on Phuket. Even locally born Thais have remarked to me how "ugly" parts of Phuket have become, due to the deforestation and subsequent building. It's seen (by some) as progress but......

I think this constitutes a much greater long term threat to the Thai tourism industry than the US sub-prime crisis. If the Thai government does not get its act together, and institute and enforce proper environmental legislation (including zoning, building codes etc.) then the sex industry may well end up being all that's left of the Thai tourism industry.

/ Priceless

The US is the world's biggest economy, ...

Sorry,

The U.S.A. was the world's biggest economy...

Since 2007 the world's biggest economy is the E.U.

FYI: The U.S. is one country. The E.U. is a whole bunch of them!

The US is the world's biggest economy, ...

Sorry,

The U.S.A. was the world's biggest economy...

Since 2007 the world's biggest economy is the E.U.

FYI: The U.S. is one country. The E.U. is a whole bunch of them!

Ireland rejected the EU constitution on Friday and the dictators of France and Germany are pledging to go ahead with this Marxist experiment so i beg to differ that the EU is made up of individual soveriegn countries. Hitler was more democratic then these corrupt liars.

Welcome to the United States of Europe.

(Hammer and Sickle on a red background will be appropriate for the flag.)

Edited June 15, 200818 yr by boiledegg

The US is the world's biggest economy, ...

Sorry,

The U.S.A. was the world's biggest economy...

Since 2007 the world's biggest economy is the E.U.

FYI: The U.S. is one country. The E.U. is a whole bunch of them!

Ireland rejected the EU constitution on Friday and the dictators of France and Germany are pledging to go ahead with this Marxist experiment so i beg to differ that the EU is made up of individual soveriegn countries. Hitler was more democratic then these corrupt liars.

Welcome to the United States of Europe.

(Hammer and Sickle on a red background will be appropriate for the flag.)

Whatever you're taking, I think you should stop

/ Priceless

Whatever you're taking, I think you should stop

Most tourists are males and they will only stop "coming" when there are no more willing females... poor country...

So you've expounded your reason for going to Thailand, do not extrapolate it onto the majority.

Perhaps academic exams and personality tests should be part of the passport application process

Now that would clear the beaches.

Myself have not flown anywhere for the past 5 years and still have many more years of places to go in Thailand, but before retiring here noticed year after year that no matter where you went from in the UK ALL flight were getting fuller, the days have long gone where you could go to Canada, USA, Asia with the plane less than ½ full

Really? That might explain why in May I, like many others on the flights, had a whole row to myself BKK - LHR - BKK. But then I fly direct not using some raghead airline via a six hour stopover at Abu Bin Khazi international airfield latrine.

<edit - sorry forgot to answer the OP's question. The answer is : when hel_l freezes over.>

Unfortunatly it is the "rag heads" that are filling in for the "poor" westerners Da*m near impossible to get a flight out of Saudi this time of year and costs the same as from UK so I think the rich from middle east will compensate for the reducing european tourist.

Most tourists are males and they will only stop "coming" when there are no more willing females... poor country...

[/quote

yeah you hit the nail right on!!!! there will always be enuff pervs with extra cash to spend to get laid vultures preying on poverty and doesnt look like the farmers getting any richer

Most tourists are males and they will only stop "coming" when there are no more willing females... poor country...

yeah you hit the nail right on!!!! there will always be enuff pervs with extra cash to spend to get laid vultures preying on poverty and doesnt look like the farmers getting any richer

Whats perverted about having sex? it was how me and 2 of my friends were created.

There are several factors involved with the decline of tourism in Thailand.

I now live in Chiang Mai and previous to that have visited Thailand on and off for the past 20 years.

I can describe the social scene situation here in one word: LESS.

Describing my home city, Chiang Mai, it used to have a wonderful night social scene, unlike Bangkok and Phuket, it was more personal and relaxed, a party and an adventure each night. Many great hang outs and bars, multiple western style nice but inexpensive restaurants, beautiful girls working in the massage parlours, great discos, more snooker clubs, restaurants with great free entertainments (dancers, comedians, singers), the bars were fun and great atmosphere, stage shows most of it uninhibited.

These days what is left of the Chiang Mai social scene is just remnants of how it was originally. The Spotlight that used to be THE PLACE to go, now normally has 2 girls dressed very prim and proper with sad faces sitting outside and is certainly in need of a lick of paint, the sad overpriced small dirty open bars in the Loh Kroh road with lots of plain looking girls touting for customers to buy them drinks, the gorgeous looking girl standing outside a massage parlour and once inside her grandmother takes over, only a choice of a very few half decent restaurants now left in the town, but expensive, the night bazaar has become overpriced and boring.

In the last 5 years there has been practically nothing new on the social scene in Chiang Mai, especially nightlife with the big girl dress code cover-up in the bars, no shows, earlier closing.

Unfortunately many Thais still believe that Farangs have an unlimited amount of funds and it is Ok to rip them off at every possible opportunity. Over the years tourists have got wise to this and are not so nieve as was in the past.

Because of increases in airfares, new airport taxes imposed, clamp down and closuer of many cheaper entertainments, the bar scene (like it or not, that is what Thailand was famous for) being eroded away, many traditional Thai massage parlours now being called spas to make them sound posher and becoming too expensive, Farang food restuarants being pricey, tourists are now seeking other holiday destinations that are better value.

Of course during the last coup, with armed troops standing on every street corner, certainly didn`t do any good in boosting the tourist industry here. Seeing armed troops ready for combat can be extremely frightening to Westerners who have never experienced this sort of thing before.

The problem is that the Thais have not learned that they may get away with squeezing the golden goose, but not killing it off completely.

I believe that the object of the big close down of what the hierarchies call the undesirable establishments was to attract a more up market clientele, probably focusing on elderly couples who it was hoped would spend more money such as on joining golf clubs, staying at expensive hotels, touring, dining at exclusive restaurants, buying prestige cards & investment properties and who retire to bed at 9.00pm. This attitude by the powers that be, is being slowly implimented all over Thailand.

Of course this hasn't happened and unless something is done within the next couple of years to revitalise the social scene (which includes more facilities and fun for children, wildlife without cruelty attractions & theme parks) plus improved nightlife, Thailand will cease to be a tourist attraction, as the discontinuing of flights by certain airline companies shows that the decline in tourism to Thailand has already begun.

Edited June 15, 200818 yr by distortedlink

Wait for the US recession to kick in. The oil price story will be yesterday's news as China and India growth slow (fewer exports to US and eventually Europe), and demand for all commodities (inc. oil, steel) slows, and the latent ramping up of oil supplies at that near-future moment finds it no longer has a market demand.

Economics 101. But something CNBC doesn't tell ya about.

Sorry for the edit - forgot to say that defense/defence companies will be the long-haul stocks to watch. You heard it here first. (now sell those Houston and Alberta assets while the gettin's good - steel too - bail on Mittal).

Edited June 15, 200818 yr by thaigene2

OK, I'll try to put it in simpler and blunter terms so that even you understand:

- Yes, the US real estate market is in a shambles.

- Yes, the US dollar has been falling for quite a while.

- Yes, the currently high oil prices impacts the US conceivably more than any other country.

- Yes, this will probably impact the number of US visitors to Thailand.

- No, the US is not the world and the jury is still out on to what extent the US "crisis" will impact the rest of the world.

Oil prices are high the world over. (This, however, benefits oil producing countries like the Middle East, Russia, Norway, Venezuela, Brazil...) It is still not clear whether this is a permanent price shift or a "bump" in the curve.

What I have been trying to say is that your view of the world is extremely US-centric. The US is the world's biggest economy, but it is not the whole world. Furthermore, US visitors constitute a mere 4.3% of foreign arrivals to Thailand. Even if this share had dropped to 0.0% last year, total foreign arrivals would still have grown.

Wake up, there is a big world out there, some 6 billion people who don't live in the US I'm not saying that Thailand is "immune to external economic pressures", I'm saying that its tourism industry does not stand or fall with the US economy.

/ Priceless

"Priceless".. yes that just about sums up what you were so kindly trying to explain to poor thick ole me!!

I am glad that you realise that countries that produce oil benefit from the sale of it, I can see that would be a huge leap of logic for most of us, thanks.

What you so stunningly fail to understand however is that as far as Europe goes and yes the US, the good times are over, and if the good times are over in both the US and Europe, then that means less imports from the far east, which means less money in the pockets of those people there.

There is a really simple equation that is key here: less money in peoples pockets = less tourism

I know that may be hard to grasp but do try.

It will not stop. As long a single guys , as well as married Guys who can lie to tthe wife, can save up money,They will make the trip.

So: When will -Farang- tourism to Thailand come to a halt ?

On the 17th of July 2143. You can take my word for it.

"Priceless".. yes that just about sums up what you were so kindly trying to explain to poor thick ole me!!

I am glad that you realise that countries that produce oil benefit from the sale of it, I can see that would be a huge leap of logic for most of us, thanks.

What you so stunningly fail to understand however is that as far as Europe goes and yes the US, the good times are over, and if the good times are over in both the US and Europe, then that means less imports from the far east, which means less money in the pockets of those people there.

I always put a lot of stock in baseless predictions by nuts on the Internet.

OK, I'll try to put it in simpler and blunter terms so that even you understand:

- Yes, the US real estate market is in a shambles.

- Yes, the US dollar has been falling for quite a while.

- Yes, the currently high oil prices impacts the US conceivably more than any other country.

- Yes, this will probably impact the number of US visitors to Thailand.

- No, the US is not the world and the jury is still out on to what extent the US "crisis" will impact the rest of the world.

Oil prices are high the world over. (This, however, benefits oil producing countries like the Middle East, Russia, Norway, Venezuela, Brazil...) It is still not clear whether this is a permanent price shift or a "bump" in the curve.

What I have been trying to say is that your view of the world is extremely US-centric. The US is the world's biggest economy, but it is not the whole world. Furthermore, US visitors constitute a mere 4.3% of foreign arrivals to Thailand. Even if this share had dropped to 0.0% last year, total foreign arrivals would still have grown.

Wake up, there is a big world out there, some 6 billion people who don't live in the US I'm not saying that Thailand is "immune to external economic pressures", I'm saying that its tourism industry does not stand or fall with the US economy.

/ Priceless

"Priceless".. yes that just about sums up what you were so kindly trying to explain to poor thick ole me!!

I am glad that you realise that countries that produce oil benefit from the sale of it, I can see that would be a huge leap of logic for most of us, thanks.

What you so stunningly fail to understand however is that as far as Europe goes and yes the US, the good times are over, and if the good times are over in both the US and Europe, then that means less imports from the far east, which means less money in the pockets of those people there.

There is a really simple equation that is key here: less money in peoples pockets = less tourism

I know that may be hard to grasp but do try.

I'll make it even shorter:

- Yes, the US economy is in dire straits.

- No, the experts around the world (of which I am not one and you are obviously not one either) are not in agreement as to what impact this will have on the rest of the world, including Europe.

- It is consequently absolutely impossible to say anything meaningful about the impact of the US crisis on tourism in Thailand.

/ Priceless

Edited June 16, 200818 yr by Priceless

I believe it will slow down, but it is not going to stop. There are many people going to Thailand. It is still a popular destination for people in my little corner of the world, from young couples to grandmas, to the single guy.

I do think that the era of ever decreasing air fares is over, and will start to affect long haul destinations like Thailand. People talk about how cheap the sex is, but there are closer locations for North American tourists for that. I would imagine for European tourists as well. Most of these airlines book out 6 to 12 months in advance of fuel futures, so these steep increases will really hit the consumers until later this year. Wait until tourists are presented a $500 or $1000 increase in airfare per seat and see how this affects their travel plans. Every dollar of increase effectively prevents more and more people from being able to fly there. This will affect Europe as well, just not quite as much since I believe their fare is cheaper. Still, every fare increase should prevent more people from being able to afford it. We are even seeing US tourism affected by increased gas costs, many people on the low end of the economic ladder are cutting back vacations here, and staying home.

As for the sky is falling in America, I do not know where people get that. Yes there are corrections to real estate, but they were badly needed. If the government would simply get out of the way and let people have to pay for their own stupidity, the correction would be over quite quickly. I think the economy is fine, we are just dealing with some price increases right now.

Oh, and for the poster who talked about Airbus new planes. The efficiency is untrue, it takes MASSIVELY more fuel than other planes, but less per seat slightly than previous models. Boeing actually has the most efficient planes right now, that is why their orders are full for 10 years, and Airbus right now can barely give a plane away. Not a criticism, those two companies just made bets on what would be most important, and Boeing happened to win.

Edited June 24, 200818 yr by medoraman

Tourism will never drop off significantly in Thailand because the country has built up a legacy and it's uniquely positioned to absorb a large percentage of the world's middle class tourists. I think a lot of this is fear mongering from aging expats who are barely scraping by on their monthlies after deducting child support payments, divorces, lawsuits, and whatever else that made them want to move to Thailand. Even with the 20% hit on the dollar/baht exchange Thailand is still fairly cheap. I'm not exactly weeping over the prices when I spend a few thousand dollars on an extended weekend trip to Hong Kong. Bangkok is DIRT cheap in comparison.

As far as atmosphere and what not well you can interpret that as you wish. There are still several places in Thailand where you can go and hang out without looking at euros in speedos or land whales from the U.K./U.S.

Tourism will never drop off significantly in Thailand because the country has built up a legacy and it's uniquely positioned to absorb a large percentage of the world's middle class tourists. I think a lot of this is fear mongering from aging expats who are barely scraping by on their monthlies after deducting child support payments, divorces, lawsuits, and whatever else that made them want to move to Thailand. Even with the 20% hit on the dollar/baht exchange Thailand is still fairly cheap. I'm not exactly weeping over the prices when I spend a few thousand dollars on an extended weekend trip to Hong Kong. Bangkok is DIRT cheap in comparison.

I concur!

When Thailand becomes colder, wetter and more expensive than home, oh and when the people become more cynical and miserable too.

The idea of tourism declining substantially is ludicrous. Forgetting the Americans for a minute (not easy I know, because their tourists are so loud), Thailand is a new South of Spain for the British, German, Scandinavian package tourist who gets on a plane without really knowing where they are going. The Aussies and Kiwis are still coming in droves (the strong baht being eclipsed by the even stronger Aussie and Kiwi dollars) and those Americans who are not travelling because they're either scared of the outside world or can't pay their mortgages due to their profligate lifestyles are being replaced by tens of thousands of new travelling Chinese, Koreans and Indians.

Of course, I wish tourism would decline.

A Thailand with fewer peeling white shoulders and muscle shirts would be paradise.

The idea of tourism declining substantially is ludicrous. Forgetting the Americans for a minute (not easy I know, because their tourists are so loud),

It can be hard to hear them over the whinging of the Poms.

If you think the English, Americans & Australians are loud, it is going to get worse.

Here on Phuket "The Russians are coming The Russians are coming" in their noisy droves...

I don't think I've met a local trader yet that really like any of them only the American Dollars that they bring .

P.S. But then the Russians scream that they want their change in American Dollars !!!

"So: When will -Farang- tourism to Thailand come to a halt ?"

Never.