Thoughts/predictions On Aus Dollar Exchange Rates

[mijan24]

'LaoPo'[/b] date='2008-07-08 17:24:54' post='2076130']

I don't understand why you Gents even discuss the Aus $.

It's a small currency with a rather small population of 20 Million. A good sized Chinese city

Forget it.

Apart from that I foresee a dramatic fall in commodities and Australia is rich in commodities, so..............

LaoPo

post='2077316' date='2008-07-09 11:53:58']The AUD will get stronger against the baht as the commodity boom goes on and Thai inflation outpaces Australian inflation which will be kept low by a relatively robust and flexible economy. Major contracts coal and iron ore are real and they have just gone up even more. My contacts in the industry who negotiate these things tell me that customers are demanding more, and are paying more over the next 2 years.

I have a feeling it will start leveling out against the USD.

I'm not at all so sure about that Samran...

How The Commodities Bubble Will Burst

Clem Chambers, ADVFN 07.09.08, 6:00 PM ET

http://www.forbes.com/finance/2008/07/09/c...oapbox_inl.html

In fact it's a very simple fact of supply and demand; the demand will slow and so will commodities supplies and prices will drop.

Timeframe ? sooner than we think. Most people aren't aware yet what's going on in China (and India) but demand is slipping; believe me !

I see, read and hear what's going on in China because of my contacts and relation to China..

http://www.forbes.com/finance/2008/07/09/c...oapbox_inl.html

But nobody has to believe me, of course.

LaoPo

Interesting indeed from all posters but being Oz myself I did not feel a thing when you stood on TOES (555) My hopes are with Samran as I am paid & save in Oz $'s @ the current 31.9/baht best for a long long time there is a stong rumour (wish/hope) it will go to 35/baht but now back to reality.

It always brings a smile to ones dial when people mainly those from down under, talk of the power that Oz wields I am afraid it is like hitting someone with a wet tram ticket - We (Oz) don't even feature when they display world currencies you have look over the page or read the bye(spelling?) line

24 mil then back to 20 mil now up to 21.something jeez and all but the . something living on the Eastern seaboard & remember those figures may or maynot include native Ozzies & native NZ's/Ozzie cousins & without the migrants we probably couldn't muster enough able bodies to man the Endeavour.

Come on guys lighten up this is a great thread great information but mostly speculation mixed with some hopeulation if any one has a sure thing let us know I would love to be there and watch the bookie drive away in his new Merc.

Oh straight off Fox News Staion in downtown Tennant Creek Ozzie Dollar will now buy 1/2 a Tinnie not Sn but Beer Tinnie VB or XXXX so get into your local and buy up now keep the commodity boom boom booming.

[Naam]

24 mil then back to 20 mil now up to 21.something jeez and all but the . something living on the Eastern seaboard & remember those figures may or maynot include native Ozzies & native NZ's/Ozzie cousins & without the migrants we probably couldn't muster enough able bodies to man the Endeavour.

i would love to understand that strange language you use

[mijan24]

24 mil then back to 20 mil now up to 21.something jeez and all but the . something

- Please let me assist, one poster quoted Oz population being near 24 million peoples, another poster said no it's (Oz population) not 24 million; 20.6 million come 1st of July 2008 a third poster said No, sorry, it has 21,359.297 (Australian Bureau of Statistics http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/94...3?opendocument) --- Naam my reference to all but . (point) something was a gesture towards that saying A (not the) majority of Australias population live on the Eastern seaboard.

Now we also have idigineous Australians who are more nomadic than most others (my belief) + we have a large population of New Zealanders living in Australia some legal some not so legal - so this adds to whos who in the Ozzie Zoo. My reference to migrants was a slag at those who say we (Oz) don't need migrants - without them we would not be populating but populessing.

living on the Eastern seaboard & remember those figures may or maynot include native Ozzies & native NZ's/Ozzie cousins & without the migrants we probably couldn't muster enough able bodies to man the Endeavour Capt Cooks Boat .

i would love to understand that strange language you use

It probably is a strange language - due I think to coming from "The Land Down Under" and "Eating a Vegimite Sandwich" on mooooooore than the odd occaison.

I was proably over the top in my assumtions regarding the Eastern Seaboard call it phrophetic licence. but it is interesting to note back in 2006 24% of Australias population were born overseas (counties other than Australia

:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Australia#Country_of_Birth)

Australia has a significant number of Vietnamese 180000+ and Filipinos 135000+ and the number of Thais has increased 30%+ in the last 15 years but the actual number was not on record at time of going to TV.

On 10 July 2008 at 18:12:17 (Canberra time),(Today in Thailand now as i post) the resident population of Australia is projected to be:

21,359,675

This projection is based on the estimated resident population at 31 December 2007 and assumes growth since then of:

one birth every 1 minute and 55 seconds,

one death every 3 minutes and 57 seconds,

a net gain of one international migrant every 2 minutes and 38 seconds leading to

an overall total population increase of one person every 1 minute and 33 seconds

The last entry courtesy of ABS shows why one can't quote exact figures not like currency or then again there may well be a common link there me thinks???

Edited July 10, 2008 by mijan24

[Paul MBMG]

Having made very good returns from currency attribution over the last 14 years, then, for pretty much the first time, I don't see any clear cut trends at the moment. As an example I as recently asked a question as to where US$:UKP could be in a year's time (we had been short the USD until the start of this year ever since it was 1.40 except for one brief period when it bounced back) and to be honest the range could be 1.40:1 or it could be 3.50:1

The same AUD:USD - it could break parity or it could slip back below 70. There are very occasionally times when it's impossible to have a clear idea as to what is coming next - I'm involved in publishing a daily newsletter forecasting what is coming so it's kind of my job to know! - and right now is one of those times.

Anyone speculating on currencies or any assets - including stocks or commodities - right now is catching falling knives. It's a really dangerous time to be taking any positions. Short term there are trends - and the short term AUD trend is positive however there is strong iresistance overhead at 9564 and this could potentially be a place whereby renewed selling (I've been away and not updated my charts but I can see that the market traded up to 9550 and has

subsequently retraced about 85 points as of the close last Monday).

PM me if you want AUD updates; we can currently send these 2-3 times per week.

Paul

[PCA]

Having made very good returns from currency attribution over the last 14 years, then, for pretty much the first time, I don't see any clear cut trends at the moment. As an example I as recently asked a question as to where US$:UKP could be in a year's time (we had been short the USD until the start of this year ever since it was 1.40 except for one brief period when it bounced back) and to be honest the range could be 1.40:1 or it could be 3.50:1

The same AUD:USD - it could break parity or it could slip back below 70. There are very occasionally times when it's impossible to have a clear idea as to what is coming next - I'm involved in publishing a daily newsletter forecasting what is coming so it's kind of my job to know! - and right now is one of those times.

Anyone speculating on currencies or any assets - including stocks or commodities - right now is catching falling knives. It's a really dangerous time to be taking any positions. Short term there are trends - and the short term AUD trend is positive however there is strong iresistance overhead at 9564 and this could potentially be a place whereby renewed selling (I've been away and not updated my charts but I can see that the market traded up to 9550 and has

subsequently retraced about 85 points as of the close last Monday).

PM me if you want AUD updates; we can currently send these 2-3 times per week.

Paul

Hi Paul,

why PMs and not post it open in the forum if you feel qualified. I am sure many people are interested in currency forecasts.

PCA

[thaidrew]

Hi Paul, Well I for one would be very interested to see a regular posting of expectations. I agree that currency trading is for the strong of heart and large of wallet, however I am sure that there would be a concensus of opinion as to the uncertainty of the current situation since I for one have never seen anything similar to what we now have where most major currencies are either in freefall or at least on a slippery footing. For what it is worth, and it is not much, my 2 bobs worth is that the A$ will hold + or - a couple of cents, for the next 3 or 4 months anyway, and to be honest I am not sure that anybody could accurately predict beyond that time frame anyway. It will be interesting to see. Andrew

[fridgemagnet]

Hi Paul, Well I for one would be very interested to see a regular posting of expectations. I agree that currency trading is for the strong of heart and large of wallet, however I am sure that there would be a concensus of opinion as to the uncertainty of the current situation since I for one have never seen anything similar to what we now have where most major currencies are either in freefall or at least on a slippery footing. For what it is worth, and it is not much, my 2 bobs worth is that the A$ will hold + or - a couple of cents, for the next 3 or 4 months anyway, and to be honest I am not sure that anybody could accurately predict beyond that time frame anyway. It will be interesting to see. Andrew

[/quote

just to add interest - what about the Norwegian money (Kroner ?). Norway is a rich little (populationwise) country, lotsa oil, could profit from a little global warming even. Most unlikley to be much affected by the sub-prime thingy....

[Paul MBMG]

Hi Paul, Well I for one would be very interested to see a regular posting of expectations. I agree that currency trading is for the strong of heart and large of wallet, however I am sure that there would be a concensus of opinion as to the uncertainty of the current situation since I for one have never seen anything similar to what we now have where most major currencies are either in freefall or at least on a slippery footing. For what it is worth, and it is not much, my 2 bobs worth is that the A$ will hold + or - a couple of cents, for the next 3 or 4 months anyway, and to be honest I am not sure that anybody could accurately predict beyond that time frame anyway. It will be interesting to see. Andrew

just to add interest - what about the Norwegian money (Kroner ?). Norway is a rich little (populationwise) country, lotsa oil, could profit from a little global warming even. Most unlikley to be much affected by the sub-prime thingy....

Guys sorry for the delay - I'll try to update this a couple of times a week - for all postings it should be understood that this is technical analysis and that it is of a general nature - it is not a recommendation to tale any specific action, that would be determined entirely by your personal situation and tolerance to risk of loss. While I could guive personalised advice, this does not constitute advice and I accept no liability for the consequences of any actions taken or not taken as a result of reading this or subsequent postings on this topic. Please ensure that you read that carefully - currencies are volatile and where we manage them this is within a defined structure with controls in place - for anyone to do this at home without these is, as they say on TV, extremely dangerous.

That said -

AUD:USD

Short Term Trend: Positive (i.e. trend suggests further moves up by AUD but this is currently extremely unclear and we wouldn'd be surprised by almost any directional move at this juncture.

Close (Thursday): 96.27 (- .28)

After trading up to a historical high against USD this week of 97.70, the Greenback regained ground midweek on the back of US equity market bounce. If downward pressure continues then initial support level may be in the region of 9560 but that is far from clear. Upside is that many analysts and traders are still looking to break parity.

I'm afriad that I don't follow NKr closely enough to give you any meaningful regular updates on the Kroner although gut feelings would be that base currencies are the safe play right now and any non-base holdings should be regarded as speculative in such an environment of global volatility and uncertainty (we've made very good currency gains over the last 11 years; now is the first time that we woudl prefer to be sidelined because the dangers are just too extreme in opinion).

[asiancup2007]

I don't understand why you Gents even discuss the Aus $.

It's a small currency with a rather small population of 20 Million. A good sized Chinese city

Forget it.

Apart from that I foresee a dramatic fall in commodities and Australia is rich in commodities, so..............

LaoPo

Its the 6th most traded currency............so you are.............?

[Paul MBMG]

latest take - AUD:USD Near Term Trend: Positive

Close: 96.854 + 0.053

Having reached a historical high against the Greenback last week (Aussie went as high as 97.70), the currency from 'Down under' gave back some gains as the US Equity market recovered slightly demonstrating that even dead cats can bounce. The new found Dollar strength, moving to a low of 9602 before starting to weaken again. Hard to pick a reliable long or short term love right now. We remain sidelined until the picture becomes clearer.

All the same caveats & disclaimers apply as previously

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

latest take - AUD:USD Near Term Trend: Positive

Close: 96.854 + 0.053

Having reached a historical high against the Greenback last week (Aussie went as high as 97.70), the currency from 'Down under' gave back some gains as the US Equity market recovered slightly demonstrating that even dead cats can bounce. The new found Dollar strength, moving to a low of 9602 before starting to weaken again. Hard to pick a reliable long or short term love right now. We remain sidelined until the picture becomes clearer.

All the same caveats & disclaimers apply as previously

Thanks for your inputs Paul, having a couple of ozzie bank accounts it is nice to hear your opinions. So far I've done well in the exchange rate over the years.

[Paul MBMG]

latest take - AUD:USD Near Term Trend: Positive

Close: 96.854 + 0.053

Having reached a historical high against the Greenback last week (Aussie went as high as 97.70), the currency from 'Down under' gave back some gains as the US Equity market recovered slightly demonstrating that even dead cats can bounce. The new found Dollar strength, moving to a low of 9602 before starting to weaken again. Hard to pick a reliable long or short term love right now. We remain sidelined until the picture becomes clearer.

All the same caveats & disclaimers apply as previously

Thanks for your inputs Paul, having a couple of ozzie bank accounts it is nice to hear your opinions. So far I've done well in the exchange rate over the years.

Thanks beenthere - you're very welcome. I would just point out that story has now changed though -we've been long AUD since around 0.47 and virtually doubled our money on the cross rate, but we've now closed that trade - not because we think that AUD has reached the top but just because we no longer have any idea where it can go from here - there's now a decent possibility of literally just about anything happening......

Anyway same disclaimers and caveats apply but latest take is -

Latest Take - AUD:USD Near Term Trend: Positive

Thursday’s Close: 95.09 (-0.36)

At the start of the week AUD found support at 95.65 but, as of yesterday the market moved below that level and looks loikely to test other technical supports, such as the 21- week Moving Average Line, at 93.68.The uptrend remains intact but seems to be running out of steam - bad day for US economy and equities yesterday, if re-affirmed today, could however provide that impetus and be the spur for the next leg-up by AUD. Watch US data releases and markte responses very closely right now. Risk remains extremely high, any currency exposures should be viewed as high risk unless time-focused or with clear exit strategy/downside protection, such as stops etc.

[Paul MBMG]

AUD:US$

Near Term Trend: Positive

Last week's Close: 95.02 (- 0.07)

Following the historical high against the U.S. Dollar the previous week the Greenback has strengthened on the heels of the

US Equity markets finally gaining some traction, although this week's early action indicates volatility if not yet any clear downside move.

Having fallen to around 95 Cents, the down pressure might continue until the support line is tested at the 21- week Moving

Average Line (currently around 93.7 Cents)

All above previous disclaimers apply.

Regards,

Paul

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

Paul

What kind of impact will the NAB billion $ lose have?

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,2...649-664,00.html

[LaoPo]

Australia's Dollar Falls to Three-Week Low as Commodities Slide

By Ron Harui and Candice Zachariahs

July 30 (Bloomberg) -- The Australian dollar fell to the lowest in three weeks as prices of commodities the nation exports declined and the U.S. currency rallied in New York.

The local dollar weakened against 14 of the 16 most-traded currencies as gold, the nation's third most-valuable raw material export after coal and iron ore, led a slump in metals. Crude oil, Australia's fourth-largest overseas shipment, dropped to a 12- week low. The U.S. dollar rose the most versus the euro in almost four weeks after a Conference Board report showed consumer confidence increased in July.

``Commodity currencies should retrace,'' said John Body, head of financial markets at ANZ National Bank Ltd. in Auckland. ``It's U.S. dollar strength and just uncertainty about whether the global resource boom continues.''

Australia's currency fell 0.8 percent to 95 U.S. cents at 10:50 a.m. in Sydney, from 95.76 cents late in Asia yesterday. It touched 94.99 cents, the lowest since July 9. The currency may weaken to 94.80 cents today, said Body. The Aussie, as the currency is known, bought 102.69 yen, from 103.12 yen yesterday.

The Aussie dropped for a second day against the dollar after the UBS Constant Maturity Index of 26 raw materials slid 0.9 percent in New York to its lowest reading since May 2.

The U.S. dollar strengthened yesterday after an increase in consumer confidence. Merrill Lynch & Co.'s plan to sell $8.5 billion of stock and liquidate bonds raised speculation that Wall Street has seen the worst of the credit crisis.

Credit Crunch

Australia's currency has fallen 0.7 percent since the start of this week and 3.4 percent from a 25-year high of 98.49 cents on July 16 after National Australia Bank Ltd. and Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. reported they were setting aside cash for bad loans.

Australia is seeing ``its own version of the credit crunch come through,'' said Richard Franulovich, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in New York. ``The pullback was overdue given all the negatives that had been accumulating over the last few days.'' It may weaken to 92 cents in three months, he said.

National Australia, the country's biggest bank by assets, said yesterday most investors pulled out of its A$850 million ($813 million) bond sale.

Losses in the currency may be limited before a government report today that will show home-building approvals in Australia rose 1 percent in June, after declining 6.5 percent in May, according to the median estimate of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The report is due at 11:30 a.m. in Sydney.

Australian government bonds gained. The yield on the 10-year security fell 5 basis points, or 0.05 percentage point, to 6.25 percent. The price of the 5.25 percent note due March 2019 rose 0.348, or A$3.48 per A$1,000 face amount, to 92.311. Yields move inversely to prices.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...refer=australia

Note: the old rule that high percentages (7.25% on AUD $) are ALWAYS risky proved again to be true....

LaoPo

[Naam]

Note: the old rule that high percentages (7.25% on AUD $) are ALWAYS risky proved again to be true....

LaoPo

it depends on the perspective LaoPo, the reference currency and the currency in which one has the lion share of expenses.

7.25% p.a. for AUD plus another 6.50% appreciation vs. Thai Baht during the last three months results in an annualized yield i can normally only dream of

[Naam]

and some of our american friends must be thinking "<deleted>?! why didn't i invest in a HY-currency like AUD five years ago?"

[lannarebirth]

Those interested in $AUD may want to Google "Bearish Shooting Star Candlestick". That's what it looks like to me anyway:

[samran]

Note: the old rule that high percentages (7.25% on AUD $) are ALWAYS risky proved again to be true....

LaoPo

it depends on the perspective LaoPo, the reference currency and the currency in which one has the lion share of expenses.

7.25% p.a. for AUD plus another 6.50% appreciation vs. Thai Baht during the last three months results in an annualized yield i can normally only dream of

and for me, it is like a pay rise every day!!!

[LaoPo]

Note: the old rule that high percentages (7.25% on AUD $) are ALWAYS risky proved again to be true....

LaoPo

it depends on the perspective LaoPo, the reference currency and the currency in which one has the lion share of expenses.

7.25% p.a. for AUD plus another 6.50% appreciation vs. Thai Baht during the last three months results in an annualized yield i can normally only dream of

and for me, it is like a pay rise every day!!!

and I was talking a drop of 3.4% since July 16th of the AUD$ (taking an interest of 7.25% into consideration.....)

LaoPo

[Naam]

Note: the old rule that high percentages (7.25% on AUD $) are ALWAYS risky proved again to be true....

LaoPo

it depends on the perspective LaoPo, the reference currency and the currency in which one has the lion share of expenses.

7.25% p.a. for AUD plus another 6.50% appreciation vs. Thai Baht during the last three months results in an annualized yield i can normally only dream of

and for me, it is like a pay rise every day!!!

and I was talking a drop of 3.4% since July 16th of the AUD$ (taking an interest of 7.25% into consideration.....)

LaoPo

what drop?

[Naam]

fact (well, i claim it's a fact): 99% of TV-members living in Thailand couldn't care less how AUD is doing vs. USD although the media is always focussing on it. hardly any of them have any expenses in USD but definitely in THB and perhaps in AUD

[Naam]

Those interested in $AUD

how many of those do exist LRB? 1/12th of a dozen?

[lannarebirth]

Those interested in $AUD

how many of those do exist LRB? 1/12th of a dozen?

I'm in that group of 11. Problem is, I sometimes think too much, and that's not always beneficial.

[LaoPo]

what drop?

"Australia's currency has fallen 0.7 percent since the start of this week and 3.4 percent from a 25-year high of 98.49 cents on July 16 after National Australia Bank Ltd. and Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. reported they were setting aside cash for bad loans."

From a Bloomberg article in here:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Thoughts-pre...74#entry2116374

LaoPo

[Naam]

what drop?

"Australia's currency has fallen 0.7 percent since the start of this week and 3.4 percent from a 25-year high of 98.49 cents on July 16 after National Australia Bank Ltd. and Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. reported they were setting aside cash for bad loans."

From a Bloomberg article in here:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Thoughts-pre...74#entry2116374

LaoPo

this "crash" is irrelevant for most of us as AUD vs. THB has been quite stable during the period mentioned by Bloomie. see my posting:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?s=...t&p=2117171

Edited July 31, 2008 by Naam

[LaoPo]

Those interested in $AUD

how many of those do exist LRB? 1/12th of a dozen?

I'm in that group of 11. Problem is, I sometimes think too much, and that's not always beneficial.

Australians account for 4,41% of total tourism to Thailand in 2007 and that is about 638.000 tourists out of a total of 14,4 Million tourists/visitors. Most of those Australians are just interested in the exchange rate to the Baht during their holiday.

Like in any other country, the majority of a(ny) country however has not a clue what the exchange rate is of their own currency versus another currency.

I have no idea how many Ozzie expats there are in Thailand but some of them could be interested in:

Thoughts/predictions On Aus Dollar Exchange Rates, Good investment move? the title of the topic.

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

what drop?

"Australia's currency has fallen 0.7 percent since the start of this week and 3.4 percent from a 25-year high of 98.49 cents on July 16 after National Australia Bank Ltd. and Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. reported they were setting aside cash for bad loans."

From a Bloomberg article in here:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Thoughts-pre...74#entry2116374

LaoPo

this "crash" is irrelevant for most of us as AUD vs. THB has been quite stable during the period mentioned by Bloomie. see my posting:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?s=...t&p=2117171

I agree.

The only thing I mentioned was that a 'higher' % on a currency is always risky what the returns are concerned. The 7.25%/AUD$ and a drop of the same AUD$ of 3.4% within a week showed that. That's all.

It isn't the end of the world of course but if one expects a return of 7.25% it's a bit sour.

Apart from that, the AUD$ dropped further today.

But, I'm* out of here since I'm not too interested in the AUD$ anyway

* but the Japanese are, of course, with their extreme low lending rate:

Japan Individuals Buy Australian, New Zealand Dollars

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...orld_currencies

LaoPo

Edited July 31, 2008 by LaoPo

[david96]

The Australian dollar AUD is the fifth most traded currency. Interest rates are high. One can obtain 6 to 8%pa on a term deposit before tax. The AUD is almost on a par with the USD.

Remember the AUD traded at a low of $0.48 US in 2001. It is now around $0.95. The resources industries are all that is keeping the Australian economy going. Inflation is at 4.5%, the RBA states this is too high, the share market is down and superannuation funds may have lost up to 15% of their value in the past F/Y 2007/2008, a negative return.

[mijan24]

The Australian dollar AUD is the fifth most traded currency. Interest rates are high. One can obtain 6 to 8%pa on a term deposit before tax. The AUD is almost on a par with the USD.

Remember the AUD traded at a low of $0.48 US in 2001. It is now around $0.95. The resources industries are all that is keeping the Australian economy going. Inflation is at 4.5%, the RBA states this is too high, the share market is down and superannuation funds may have lost up to 15% of their value in the past F/Y 2007/2008, a negative return.

David not debating your post its just that "AUD is the fifth most traded currency" supprises me as it (the Oz $) does not appear on the news nor in major dailies when they show exchange rates etc you have to go looking fot it.

Comment only not critique.