Dollar/baht Don't Read Unless You Have A Interest

[LaoPo]

The safe haven how things do change, there seems to be som down ides to propping up your currency. This is confusing to me in that the article say that Russia is the third largest in international currency reserves with 14.9 billion dollars.

AAARRRRRGGGGHHHH! russki reserves are presently ~$530 billion.

As of 17-10-2008: $ 515,7 Billion...

http://www.cbr.ru/eng/statistics/credit_st...er_res_08_e.htm

Scroll down a little; they update every Friday; let's see how they do tomorrow ?

Highdiver: Good idea ! But do you think all those filthy super rich Oligarchs will collect their dosh and bring it to Moscow ?

I wouldn't

LaoPo

[Naam]

The safe haven how things do change, there seems to be som down ides to propping up your currency. This is confusing to me in that the article say that Russia is the third largest in international currency reserves with 14.9 billion dollars.

AAARRRRRGGGGHHHH! russki reserves are presently ~$530 billion.

As of 17-10-2008: $ 515,7 Billion...

http://www.cbr.ru/eng/statistics/credit_st...er_res_08_e.htm

Scroll down a little; they update every Friday; let's see how they do tomorrow ?

Highdiver: Good idea ! But do you think all those filthy super rich Oligarchs will collect their dosh and bring it to Moscow ?

I wouldn't

LaoPo

one has to quantify LaoPo. the difference is not spent but wisely invested.

[VegasVic]

the BOt has so many dollars... as said by one poster last year .... they have rooms full of it.

http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/ir/tha/eng/curtha.htm

The BOT Dollar reserves are shrinking day by day as they spend those reserves to prop up the baht vs. the Dollar, I am not quite sure where the end game is for the BOT, but as of just a couple days ago Ms. Tarissa seemed hellbent on sticking with the baht buyback program despite calls for a 5% devaluing of the baht from other governors on the board! Should the BOT stick to their guns it could create some very unfavorable exchange rates going forward for those European, Aussie, Canadian and Brit expats in the LOS

[ray23]

I don't think she will move on it and it has very little to do with ecionomics more to do with saving face. I think she is counting on the 350 billion dollar Asian bail out fund

[skipvice]

your up late or up early ray?

[ray23]

Early two more cups and I will actually be awake

This is the plan:

From TOC

"Thailand to Propose Funds Plan at Asean+3 Meeting

UPDATE : 23 October 2008

Thailand will propose the establishment of a 350 billion dollar fund to tackle the world's financial crisis, at the ASEAN Plus Three meeting.

Finance Minister Suchart has revealed that the establishment of the 350 billion dollar fund, which will be proposed at the ASEAN Plus Three Summit, is a similar idea to the International Money Fund, widely known as IMF.

The new fund will act as a reserve for Asian countries when they face a shortage of short-term money. The fund can also be a source of money for economic development in the region.

The finance minister added that the U.S. financial crisis is likely to continue to slow the global economy throughout next year. He stated that the six economic stimulus measures, which will expire January 2009, may be reused again depending on the economic situation at that time.

The Asean Plus Three countries which include Japan, China, and South Korea are scheduled to have a group discussion on October 25 at the 7th Asia-Europe meeting in Beijing.

Deputy Prime Minister Olarn Chaiprawat, as Thailand's representative, will propose that countries in the group allocate 150 billion US dollars for protecting currencies and 200 billion US dollars for purchasing shares and bonds.

The money to be put into the funds would come from 10 percent of foreign reserves from each country in the Asean Plus Three group."

[ray23]

This may be a key to what we see in the upcoming months, but it does not say the $350 billion plan was brought up at all.

Asean plus three" leaders vow joint efforts on financial crisis

Web www.bangkokpost.com

Beijing (dpa) - Leaders of the "Asean plus three" group on Friday promised joint efforts to combat the global financial crisis and maintain regional economic stability.

Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao chaired the meeting of leaders of the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) plus China, Japan and South Korea.

The 13 Asian leaders held an open discussion on "issues of common concern, especially the financial crisis and its influence on East Asia," host nation China said.

"They expressed their willingness to enhance coordination and cooperation and to make joint efforts to prevent and withstand the crisis in a bid to maintain economic stability," the Chinese government reported on the official website of the Asia-Europe Meeting (Asem), which was scheduled to open later on Friday.

Officials said the 13 leaders had agreed to hold a technical working group next month in the Philippines to discuss details to be presented to the Asean leaders' summit in Thailand in December.

Thai media reported earlier that Thai Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat planned to propose that the "Asean plus three" group set up a 350-billion-dollar reserve fund, but it was not immediately known if Somchai had made the proposal.

A total of 16 Asian leaders and 27 leaders of EU nations are in Beijing to attend the seventh biannual Asem summit on Friday and Saturday.

The Asem summit will also focus on the financial crisis and discuss measures to combat climate change caused by global warming.

[fft100]

It appears to be accepted wisdom here that the BOT is propping up the Baht. Has anyone got any concrete information on this, how many $ have been used, or how reserves have dropped ? I havnt seen any figures.

Thanks

[Naam]

It appears to be accepted wisdom here that the BOT is propping up the Baht. Has anyone got any concrete information on this, how many $ have been used, or how reserves have dropped ? I havnt seen any figures.

it's not really wisdom but just a logical conclusion. no details available of course.

[ray23]

There are many many articles where the BOT said it intervening this is just one of them

There have been articles in Blomberg, The nation. Bangkok Post, TOC, MCOT and the Thai National news, spanning a period of some two years. They don't make dailey annoucements But Naam is completly correct.

From the nation:

Central bank fails to halt baht drop

The baht fell to a one-year low against the US dollar on Tuesday morning shortly after the prime minister declared a state of emergency, even though the Bank of Thailand intervened in the foreign exchange market.

BoT deputy governor on fiscal policy Ajana Waikwamdee said the central bank began inervening right after the declaration of a state of emergency.

She said the currency was "fluctuating", meaning falling.

At mid-morning, the currency hit 34.52 against the dollar. By early afternoon, it had sunk to 34.58 as the BoT continued to pour foreign reserves in to try to stop the market.

Mrs Ajana said she had not seen any "massive foreign capital outflow" and said it is not yet necessary to set up a capital reserve fund.

The bottom also fell out of the Stock Exchange of Thailand.

At the midday break, the SET Index had dropped 12.21 points to 663.01.

[ray23]

Ok all the currencies seem to be falling except the Yen. The baht is at 34.69. Now lets see where it is next week. It won't show a change on the weekend. I don't forsee it strengthening without intervention. In the past when it has gotten to the level is mysteriously became stronger. The idea that thye are stayong level with the other currrencies in the region I just don't see it.

Asian Currencies Have Weekly Losses as Recession Concerns Grow

By Anil Varma and Kim Kyoungwha

Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Asian currencies slumped this week, led by South Korea's won and Indonesia's rupiah, as stocks slid on concern a global recession will damp demand for the region's exports.

The won completed a sixth weekly decline as the central bank said Asia's fourth-largest economy grew 0.6 percent last quarter, the slowest pace in four years. Choi Chun Sin, director general of the Bank of Korea's statistics department, said growth is slowing ``faster than expected'' and will fall short of the bank's forecast of 4.6 percent for 2008. Nine of the 10 most-active Asian currencies Bloomberg tracks fell this week.

``Sentiment is really fragile,'' said Jo Hyun Suk, a currency dealer at Korea Exchange Bank in Seoul. ``The foreign exchange is being easily swayed by any bad news in a market whose volume shrank sharply of late.''

The won dropped 6.3 percent this week to 1,424 per dollar, near the lowest level in a decade, at the 3 p.m. close in Seoul, according to Seoul Money Brokerage Services Ltd. The rupiah touched 10,315 a dollar, the weakest since October 2005.

The South Korean currency extended its loss this year to 35 percent, making it Asia's worst performer. The Kospi stock index lost 20.5 percent this week as overseas funds sold more of the nation's shares than they bought for an eighth day, according to Korea Exchange.

The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index of shares dropped as much as 6.2 percent today after Sony Corp. cut its earnings estimates and Korea's economic growth slowed. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average plunged 9.6 percent.

Carry Trades

The yen climbed to a 13-year high against the dollar as the risk of a global recession prompted investors to slash carry trades, in which they fund purchases of higher-yielding assets with the Japanese currency.

The yen also surged to the strongest in six years versus the euro after Belarus, Ukraine, Hungary and Iceland joined Pakistan in requesting at least $20 billion of emergency loans from the International Monetary Fund. Standard & Poor's Ratings Services yesterday threatened to cut Russia's debt ratings.

``I can't rule out the scenario where the yen rises even faster than anticipated,'' said Toru Umemoto, chief currency analyst in Tokyo at Barclays Capital. ``Speculators are unwinding carry trades. This risk aversion is coming from the credit crunch and the chance of a global recession.''

The yen rose to 92.80 per dollar, the highest level since August 1995, and traded at 94 from 97.31 late yesterday in New York. Against the euro, it climbed to 117.52 from 125.89. The euro bought $1.2551 from $1.2934.

`Bad Sentiment'

Indonesia's rupiah was poised for a weekly loss on speculation investors sold the nation's assets. The currency has dropped 6.3 percent this month as the central bank was forced to rescue its Dutch commercial banking unit to prevent the collapse of the lender from affecting its credibility.

``It's a story of bad sentiment'' locally and in other emerging markets, said Enrico Tanuwidjaja, an economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. in Singapore. ``Bank Indonesia will probably try to stem the weakness in the rupiah from going beyond 10,000.''

The rupiah fell 3.6 percent this week to 10,175 per dollar, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Central banks intervene in currency markets by arranging purchases or sales of foreign exchange.

Taiwan's dollar had its biggest weekly loss in 10 years after a government report yesterday showed the export outlook worsened more than economists expected last month.

`Contagion'

The currency fell for an eighth day, the longest losing streak since August, after the Ministry of Economic Affairs said export orders grew at the slowest pace in six years in September as demand from the U.S. and China cooled. The central bank sold about $500 million yesterday to help slow the local dollar's loss, the Commercial Times reported, citing traders it didn't identify.

``Taiwan is very exposed to the rest of the world,'' said Sean Callow, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney. ``Obviously the central bank is slowing the move somewhat but it's a contagion.''

The island's currency slumped 2.6 percent this week to NT$33.412 against the U.S. dollar, the biggest five-day loss since the period ended Jan. 10, 1998, according to Taipei Forex Inc. The local dollar lost 0.4 percent today.

India's rupee fell for an 11th week after the central bank cut the economic growth outlook for the year ending March 31 to as little as 7.5 percent from an earlier estimate of 8 percent.

The currency slid as much as 0.7 percent to 50.165 per dollar, an all-time low, before trading at 49.95 in Mumbai, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The currency has lost more than 21 percent this year and is headed for its worst year since 1991.

`Troubling Sign'

The Philippine peso completed a fifth weekly decline as manufacturers bought fewer electronic parts for a sixth month in August, suggesting exports of laptops and mobile-phone chips will extend declines.

``The continued drop in electronics imports is symptomatic of the weakening global demand and a troubling sign that exports will slow,'' said David Cohen, an economist with Action Economics in Singapore. ``In this environment, the peso will remain under pressure.''

The peso lost 1.9 percent to 48.993 per dollar, according to Tullett Prebon Plc. Exports make up about 40 percent of the Philippine economy.

Elsewhere, the Thai baht fell 1.3 percent versus the dollar this week to 34.69 and the Singapore dollar dropped 1.7 percent to S$1.5080. Vietnam's dong weakened 1.5 percent to 16,848.

To contact the reporter on this story: Anil Varma in Mumbai at [email protected]; Kim Kyoungwha in Beijing at [email protected].

Last Updated: October 24, 2008 04:45 EDT

[JimmyTheMook]

I predict the baht will crash very soon - but I'm often wrong about these things

[lannarebirth]

I predict the baht will crash very soon - but I'm often wrong about these things

Mahendra predicts every currency, save for one, will crash soon. He's sometimes wrong, but not too often.

[philstone]

It appears to be accepted wisdom here that the BOT is propping up the Baht. Has anyone got any concrete information on this, how many $ have been used, or how reserves have dropped ? I havnt seen any figures.

Thanks

I also heard this from a Bar Girl on Soi 6 in Pattaya it must be so.

[PeaceBlondie]

I watch the Korean won and the Mexican new peso against the dollar. Two countries with far more GDP than Thailand's. Both currencies are in freefall, having lost about 35% in the last three or four months. The baht is comparatively stable, thanks to Dr. Tarisa and her staff. I hope to see the baht go the way of the won and the peso, which wouid put it near 44:1.

[Livinginexile]

I watch the Korean won and the Mexican new peso against the dollar. Two countries with far more GDP than Thailand's. Both currencies are in freefall, having lost about 35% in the last three or four months. The baht is comparatively stable, thanks to Dr. Tarisa and her staff. I hope to see the baht go the way of the won and the peso, which wouid put it near 44:1.

Wouldn't that be nice...don't think it's going to happen though.

It all depends on where one stands really.

Example:

If you bought Thai assets say 12 mths or more ago and sold them now for the same price and then repatriated your money home... You would realize at least a 25-30% profit just on the currency gain.

And that's on top of your capital gains.

Not a bad little earner, people with realestate here in Thailand will be rubbing their hands in glee whereas people that are planning to buy here will be shattered. That is unless you are buying in $US.

In my opinion we are about to see the worst decline of european currencies in history, I will even go as far as predicting the pound will be 1:1 with the $US within the next 6-12 mths.

God bless America...(I say that cos' I'm an Aussie being paid in $US) May the greenback live forever

[dclaryjr]

Not a bad little earner, people with realestate here in Thailand will be rubbing their hands in glee whereas people that are planning to buy here will be shattered. That is unless you are buying in $US.

I have a mortgage in baht and sending $$s to pay it. I got it when it was around 41--I'd love to see it get there (or better)!

[Naam]

I watch the Korean won and the Mexican new peso against the dollar. Two countries with far more GDP than Thailand's. Both currencies are in freefall, having lost about 35% in the last three or four months. The baht is comparatively stable, thanks to Dr. Tarisa and her staff. I hope to see the baht go the way of the won and the peso, which wouid put it near 44:1.

from your mouth to GOD's ears!

[ray23]

"Thai baht to move in narrrow range against US dollar this week

BANGKOK, Oct 26 (TNA) -- The Thai baht, which moved to slightly over a one month low against the US dollar last week, is expected to move in a narrow range against the greenback this week as traders are expected to closely monitor results of a US Federal Reserve meeting, according to a report issued by Kasikorn Research Centre.

The report said the baht is expected to move within a Bt34.40-34.80 range against the dollar this week compared to last Friday's close of Bt34.70 against the dollar on the onshore market.

It said the baht is projected to move in line with other currencies in the region, key US economic data for September and results of the US Federal Reserve meeting which will be held this Tuesday and Wednesday.

The overnight interbank rate this week is, according to the report, expected to move at around 3.75-3.76 per cent compared to the 3.67-3.76 per cent registered last week. (TNA) "