Thailand Tourism Decline To Exacerbate

[duchovny]

As if Thailand's tourism industry wasn't already in trouble, now this stupidity we've seen in the last few days.

However, this countries loss will only benefit the tourism industries of neighbouring countries such as Cambodia and Vietnam.

If you've invested in Thailand, start divesting or start preparing for losses.

[sylviex]

As if Thailand's tourism industry wasn't already in trouble, now this stupidity we've seen in the last few days.

However, this countries loss will only benefit the tourism industries of neighbouring countries such as Cambodia and Vietnam.

If you've invested in Thailand, start divesting or start preparing for losses.

Similar thread running at

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Pad-Riots-Pr...ts-t209459.html

[Ulysses G.]

Stupidity indeed!

[poshthai]

A thitd world country attitude and the thai people should be ashamed of this behaviour and hang their heads low to the world.

[NotNew2You]

The shutting down of some of the R/R lines and the Phuket (and Krabi and Hat Yai) airport for 3 days sure inconvenienced some travelers and tourists...but no more than your typical general strike in France; and these happen with semi-regularity and don't seem to affect French tourist numbers at all

[hanno]

Before you all start rushing to invest Millions here in Vietnam, keep in mind that arrival numbers are dropping, too.

[zorro1]

Excellent idea! now you should do the right thing and lead by example. Make your next post from Phnom Penh.

[GuestHouse]

I'd like to know exactly what it is that 'Thailand's Tourism Decline' is going to 'Exacerbate'.

I'm also at a loss as to why the happenings of the last few days are regarded as 'stupidity' when for many they are seen as very positive signs of the struggles of a growing democracy.

---

The decline in tourism that Thailand is seeing (and before you rush elsewhere to invest, so is everywhere else) is due to the international economic downturn - It will not last.

[thaihome]

...The decline in tourism that Thailand is seeing (and before you rush elsewhere to invest, so is everywhere else) is due to the international economic downturn - It will not last.

That would be the result of the business cycle, right?

TH

[GuestHouse]

...The decline in tourism that Thailand is seeing (and before you rush elsewhere to invest, so is everywhere else) is due to the international economic downturn - It will not last.

That would be the result of the business cycle, right?

TH

Economics, of which business is only one of many parts.

[Ulysses G.]

I'm also at a loss as to why the happenings of the last few days are regarded as 'stupidity' when for many they are seen as very positive signs of the struggles of a growing democracy.

Tourism is one of Thailand's biggest money earners and it is already expected to go down substantially this year.

The actions of the PAD come just as many tourists are planning their winter vacations and the TV is full of scenes of mobs trying to bring down the elected government that just regained power by democratic means after being thrown out illegally by a military coup.

Most tourists will go out of their way to avoid visiting such a f***ed up place.

[PeaceBlondie]

I do not mean to exaggerate, but I think we get exasperated when headlines mention "exacerbate." Is that when you no longer masturbate? No longer debate the rate of the Exxon rate? Is there no longer a synonym such as decrease or decline or get worse?

[Cobalt60]

I quite like attenuate, although I havent eaten a ten for a long time.

Anyway back to the point, whats up with people not wanting to come on holiday to places where there is almost mob rule, tear gassings, civil disobedience and corrupted power, fickle bastids

[steveromagnino]

I'm also at a loss as to why the happenings of the last few days are regarded as 'stupidity' when for many they are seen as very positive signs of the struggles of a growing democracy.

Tourism is one of Thailand's biggest money earners and it is already expected to go down substantially this year.

The actions of the PAD come just as many tourists are planning their winter vacations and the TV is full of scenes of mobs trying to bring down the elected government that just regained power by democratic means after being thrown out illegally by a military coup.

Most tourists will go out of their way to avoid visiting such a f***ed up place.

Most equals more than 50% right.

So you are betting tourist arrivals are going to drop by more than 50% for a meaninful period, let's say 2nd half of 2008.

I will take that bet.

As for it being 'one of Thailand's biggest money earners' it is a significant one; top 5 I think (just) and I am willing to bet we see no significant drop in occupancy or revenue year on year for the last 3 years; after all we've already had coups, then we had TRT/PPP planting bombs in Bangkok (alledgedly of course!) and now we have this.

Awesome.

Out of interest, when Thai people do nothing, you farangs complain. When some Thai people do something, you complain.

When a minority (as by definition virtually any protest is) you complain they are protesting.

When a majority elected govt act like a pack of morons, you complain Thai voters are stupid and get what they vote for.

So...in future, just so I can be clear, which action would you lot prefer Thai people do; given that your advise of Thai economics is completely useless; that you have no voting rights, and that many of you contribute nothing to the Thai economy unless you count bit loads of Semen?

Oh, and condoms and ordering chip butties :-)

I mean seriously, have any of you negative lot got a sensible suggestion other than 'I wish that lot wouldn't protest' or 'I wish that lot in power would have a backbone and let's have a civil war' to resolve this?

And TTM that certainly is not what they are saying in Thai, have you got a direct quote (and not something from NBT!) that says they want to personally choose 70% of the govt themselves? That certainly is not what many Thai people feel (although a huge number don't like the current govt, certianly likely a majority of people with an education who pay taxes and this happens to be a large group that live in BKK other than of course, the taxi drivers).

Edited September 1, 2008 by steveromagnino

[dumball]

Excellent idea! now you should do the right thing and lead by example. Make your next post from Phnom Penh.

Funny you should say that , of late , the number of foreigners seen walking around Phnom Penh have increased dramatically and no , i have no 'Statistics ' for the nitpickers . There are even Thais moving here to work , even though 'Statistics ' say they are all going home .

[madjbs]

I doubt tourism numbers will fall significantly, if at all.

In fact, I would be willing to bet that they will increase.

Edited September 1, 2008 by madjbs

[GuestHouse]

I doubt tourism numbers will fall significantly, if at all.

I doubt if they do, it will ever be in the sector of tourists that Thailand could really do without.

[geriatrickid]

Many of the package tourists have already booked their trips and flights for the Christmas holidays, so there is at least a guarantee of a core group of visitors showing up. The key indicators to watch will be bookings for Q1 of 2009. If the unrest buggers the holidays for visitors at Christmas it will be game over for Q1 & Q2.

Watch the bookings coming out of the Asian countries of Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. If they decline 10% or more, there will be a ripple effect. Watch the travel booking reports coming out of the big agencies like Amex, Cook etc. If they start reporting cancellations or decreased interest in Sept & Oct., then it's game over until next high season. No one can say for sure what the impact will be until the big agencies report their trends.

More importantly, if the foreign governments post travel advisories a notch higher than currently, then the big travel agencies will be obliged to warn prospective customers accordingly. If you were Mrs. Jones from Perth looking to take the kids and husband away for a holiday, would you be willing to go where the your government says not to go? I don't think so. The decision maker on family holidays is the wife/mother and she is not one to take risks when it comes to the family's safety.

[madjbs]

Considering tourist numbers rose 4.5% in 2007, after all the PAD protests and the coup, I doubt the current events will cause tourism to decline at all. Perhaps slower growth than the calm years (visitors increasing up to 20%) but still an increase in the rate of growth from 2007, and certainly not a decline in numbers.

[lazeeboy]

were businesses really hit that hard after the coup? not as hard as everyone imagined,this didnt get the kind of press the coup did,as long as it stops thailand can still survive this,albeit some will stay away ,but in the main the die hard fun loving tourist will still come..........i hope

[madjbs]

^ Tourism business were hit but not all that bad. 2006 showed a 30% increase in tourism related revenue over 2005. Whereas 2007 saw only a 14% increase over 2006. So they were probably effected, but they still increased their revenue significantly, even taking into account inflation.

[bangkokrick]

I doubt tourism numbers will fall significantly, if at all.

In fact, I would be willing to bet that they will increase.

Well the following link should have some bearing on things going forward. (Brits).

Warning for Brits

Also Prince Andrew has just cancelled his visit to Thailand due to security concerns, but he will visit Singapore and Malaysia?

Cheers, Rick

Edited September 1, 2008 by bangkokrick

[dumball]

I doubt tourism numbers will fall significantly, if at all.

In fact, I would be willing to bet that they will increase.

Well the following link should have some bearing on things going forward. (Brits).

Warning for Brits

Also Prince Andrew has just cancelled his visit to Thailand due to security concerns, but he will visit Singapore and Malaysia?

Cheers, Rick

Geriatrickid , is this the type of government warning/advise you were talking about that could decrease tourism because the 'Warning' needs to be passed on by travel agencies ? Do you suppose/think this will be picked up and acted on by other countries ?

[h90]

overpricing and not taking care of environment will hurt more than this government and PAD

[dumball]

Excellent idea! now you should do the right thing and lead by example. Make your next post from Phnom Penh.

I think anyone even just thinking about a move to Cambodia should log onto asiasentinal and read the uncontrolled article on the rapid growth and ease of setting up buisiness in that country , you are actualy welcomed to do so , plus a wide open visa plan .

[ClaytonSeymour]

Many of the package tourists have already booked their trips and flights for the Christmas holidays, so there is at least a guarantee of a core group of visitors showing up. The key indicators to watch will be bookings for Q1 of 2009. If the unrest buggers the holidays for visitors at Christmas it will be game over for Q1 & Q2. They may have already booked, but package tourists tend to be more sensitive to instability & are often the first to cancel their bookings, request destination changes etc. so, Q4 2008 is by no means in the bag.

Watch the bookings coming out of the Asian countries of Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. If they decline 10% or more, there will be a ripple effect. Watch the travel booking reports coming out of the big agencies like Amex, Cook etc. If they start reporting cancellations or decreased interest in Sept & Oct., then it's game over until next high season. No one can say for sure what the impact will be until the big agencies report their trends.

More importantly, if the foreign governments post travel advisories a notch higher than currently, then the big travel agencies will be obliged to warn prospective customers accordingly. If you were Mrs. Jones from Perth looking to take the kids and husband away for a holiday, would you be willing to go where the your government says not to go? I don't think so. The decision maker on family holidays is the wife/mother and she is not one to take risks when it comes to the family's safety.

[LaoPo]

^ Tourism business were hit but not all that bad. 2006 showed a 30% increase in tourism related revenue over 2005. Whereas 2007 saw only a 14% increase over 2006. So they were probably effected, but they still increased their revenue significantly, even taking into account inflation.

Can you show me the links to those statistics ? because if I look at the inbound tourism the situation ism as follows:

The GRAND TOTAL of Tourism in 2006 increased 20,01% over 2005

and

2007 increased just 4,65% versus 2006.

TAT statistics:

2006 versus 2005: THAILAND_2006_tourist_numbers_res_1_12_1.XLS

2007 versus 2006: THAILAND_2007_tourist_numbers_res_1_12_1.XLS

Apart from that I predict a significant DROP in tourism for 2008 versus 2007, possibly between 15-20% but it could be more.

The reason behind this is that TAT doesn't supply the numbers anymore which they did before....there aren't even numbers for January 2008 whilst we passed 8 months already.

Maybe their computer doesn't work ? Personally I think they're hiding the facts because they will be disastrous and some people on the top fear for their jobs...

LaoPo

[madjbs]

http://www2.tat.or.th/stat/web/static_index.php

[Ulysses G.]

So...in future, just so I can be clear, which action would you lot prefer Thai people do?

In the future, when virtually the same government has been elected twice in a row despite being thrown out by an illegal coup, please use peaceful and legal means if you want to get rid of them, otherwise they will just get elected yet

again starting the circle over.

Edited September 2, 2008 by Ulysses G.

[skiman1]

[quote

Prince Andrew has just cancelled his visit to Thailand due to security concerns, but he will visit Singapore and Malaysia?

Cheers, Rick

thats good news maybe save the British taxpayer some Money - he is a waste of space