Help . . . Is The £ Going Into Free-fall?

[VegasVic]

My logic tells me that a strong dollar is only good for expats and that the the country will suffer from it. Exports are more expensive and will not be competitive ...

That's right Gary. The American bashers should take solace from the fact that most Americans are hurt by a stronger dollar. Funny how they got it wrong when the dollar was weak, causing the rise of every other asset class on earth. The rubber band only stretches so far. at any given time.

Lets see now, who was it here that posted time and time again over the past 1 1/2 years, that the weak dollar was the gift the keeps on giving I know the answer but I'll never tell!

[Naam]

They'll go down together. Can't find the link now, but analyst other day on CNN I think, reckons GBP, USD and Euro to go the way of Zimbabwe because of all this pumping of cash.

and ah "reckons" Robert Mugabe will be da unanimously elected dictator of dat yewnified Yewrope. by the way... is that stuff legal which you ingest and how do you ingest it? by smoking? swallowing? intravenous? subcutane?

[cmsally]

Well the GBP seems to be going slightly up today as is the US$. So could this be more of a weakening Baht trend.

Have the BOT run out of US$ to sell or do they actually have to prove that they need some of the big Asia rescue fund they want set up. The plot thickens.

[camerata]

Some posts have been deleted. Let's stay on topic, folks.

[philstone]

On the slide again in early Asian trade.

If this keeps up I reckon 40 Baht by the end of November. If it's anything like last time (1990's) it will stick there for 5 years or more.

The world is asking: What is Britain for?

The purpose of Britain is to give taxpayers to foreigns who come to England. Take care and enjoy your money away to new arrivals.

30 Baht to the Pound then 20

Edited October 27, 2008 by philstone

[philstone]

On the slide again in early Asian trade.

If this keeps up I reckon 40 Baht by the end of November. If it's anything like last time (1990's) it will stick there for 5 years or more.

The world is asking: What is Britain for?

The purpose of Britain is to give taxpayers to foreigns who come to England. Take care and enjoy your money away to new arrivals.

30 Baht to the Pound then 20

How come no Americas are crying about the dollar?

[philstone]

On the slide again in early Asian trade.

If this keeps up I reckon 40 Baht by the end of November. If it's anything like last time (1990's) it will stick there for 5 years or more.

The world is asking: What is Britain for?

The purpose of Britain is to give taxpayers to foreigns who come to England. Take care and enjoy your money away to new arrivals.

30 Baht to the Pound then 20

How come no Americas are crying about the dollar?

[chiang mai]

On the slide again in early Asian trade.

If this keeps up I reckon 40 Baht by the end of November. If it's anything like last time (1990's) it will stick there for 5 years or more.

The world is asking: What is Britain for?

The purpose of Britain is to give taxpayers to foreigns who come to England. Take care and enjoy your money away to new arrivals.

30 Baht to the Pound then 20

Give taxpayers to foreigns, whatever are you on about, or rather, whatever are you on! You're a mess Phil, a real mess, and in stereo too it seems.

Edited October 27, 2008 by chiang mai

[chiang mai]

Well the GBP seems to be going slightly up today as is the US$. So could this be more of a weakening Baht trend.

Have the BOT run out of US$ to sell or do they actually have to prove that they need some of the big Asia rescue fund they want set up. The plot thickens.

Maybe so in the morning but not so now, BOT is playing, almost certainly.

[cmsally]

Well the GBP seems to be going slightly up today as is the US$. So could this be more of a weakening Baht trend.

Have the BOT run out of US$ to sell or do they actually have to prove that they need some of the big Asia rescue fund they want set up. The plot thickens.

Maybe so in the morning but not so now, BOT is playing, almost certainly.

I think BOT overslept this morning, started work around midday.

[MJP]

On the slide again in early Asian trade.

If this keeps up I reckon 40 Baht by the end of November. If it's anything like last time (1990's) it will stick there for 5 years or more.

The world is asking: What is Britain for?

The purpose of Britain is to give taxpayers to foreigns who come to England. Take care and enjoy your money away to new arrivals.

30 Baht to the Pound then 20

Give taxpayers to foreigns, whatever are you on about, or rather, whatever are you on! You're a mess Phil, a real mess, and in stereo too it seems.

[chiang mai]

So it seems the world now wants to protect the YEN and prevent it from strengthening too much and too quickly, not sure how you do that apart from buying YEN and that would seem to be a loss leader if ever there was one, given its current strength combined with a near zero rate of return - or have I missed something here? And after you've answered that question please keep in mind that we need to understand the impact that will have on Sterling. Ta!

[lannarebirth]

So it seems the world now wants to protect the YEN and prevent it from strengthening too much and too quickly, not sure how you do that apart from buying YEN and that would seem to be a loss leader if ever there was one, given its current strength combined with a near zero rate of return - or have I missed something here? And after you've answered that question please keep in mind that we need to understand the impact that will have on Sterling. Ta!

I'm not sure at all if T/A will work in this environment, but if it does, the LT Yen chart projects 20% higher against the $USD. I miagine they'll be out wanting to buy up the rest of Asia they don't already own soon. Better than going to war anyway.

[Naam]

So it seems the world now wants to protect the YEN and prevent it from strengthening too much and too quickly, not sure how you do that apart from buying YEN and that would seem to be a loss leader if ever there was one, given its current strength combined with a near zero rate of return - or have I missed something here? And after you've answered that question please keep in mind that we need to understand the impact that will have on Sterling. Ta!

I'm not sure at all if T/A will work in this environment, but if it does, the LT Yen chart projects 20% higher against the $USD. I miagine they'll be out wanting to buy up the rest of Asia they don't already own soon. Better than going to war anyway.

i am sure it will NOT work!

[lannarebirth]

So it seems the world now wants to protect the YEN and prevent it from strengthening too much and too quickly, not sure how you do that apart from buying YEN and that would seem to be a loss leader if ever there was one, given its current strength combined with a near zero rate of return - or have I missed something here? And after you've answered that question please keep in mind that we need to understand the impact that will have on Sterling. Ta!

I'm not sure at all if T/A will work in this environment, but if it does, the LT Yen chart projects 20% higher against the $USD. I miagine they'll be out wanting to buy up the rest of Asia they don't already own soon. Better than going to war anyway.

i am sure it will NOT work!

Certainly the notion of "support" and "resistance" isn't working, which are countertrend type ideas.

[HardenedSoul]

The purpose of Britain is to give taxpayers to foreigns who come to England. Take care and enjoy your money away to new arrivals.

30 Baht to the Pound then 20

That's rubbish. The Baht is going to hel_l in a hand-basket along with the dollar. Sure, sterling's getting whacked at the moment but, like I said, how long will it be before all those new bond issues for the bailouts start to affect treasury bond yields ? how long will it be before the price of oil ratchets back up when the world starts seeing that its price can no longer be determined by demand instead of supply factors ? How long before the US Treasury admits that $700 billion is simply not enough to cover the colossal liabilities of the banking system ? How long before corporate bond defaults start to mount and the banking counterparties can't afford to pay out on all those credit default swap contracts they've sold ?

Before the year is out, I sincerely believe that there'll be a dollar collapse which will take the HK$ and a few others with it . . . including the baht !

30THB to the Pound ??!!

[chiang mai]

Increasingly I believe there is a very strong chance of USD collapse before year end.

Edited October 27, 2008 by chiang mai

[HardenedSoul]

oh, and the Fed's probably gonna cut rates again this week

There are absolutely NO fundamentals whatsoever underpinning the dollar "strength". Any shortage of dollars caused by the repatriation of wealth to the US to cover margin calls will reverse quite suddenly and with truly dramatic ramifications for the US. The bond market is the next bubble to burst !

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

It will hold together until afteer the election and then anything can and probably will happen.

[lannarebirth]

HardenedSoulPosted Today, 2008-10-27 20:46:30

Before the year is out, I sincerely believe that there'll be a dollar collapse which will take the HK$ and a few others with it . . . including the baht !

chiang maiPosted Today, 2008-10-27 21:11:29

Increasingly I believe there is a very strong chance of USD collapse before year end.

Would either of you care to quantify what this collapse will look like?

Edited October 27, 2008 by lannarebirth

[Naam]

oh, and the Fed's probably gonna cut rates again this week

There are absolutely NO fundamentals whatsoever underpinning the dollar "strength". Any shortage of dollars caused by the repatriation of wealth to the US to cover margin calls will reverse quite suddenly and with truly dramatic ramifications for the US. The bond market is the next bubble to burst !

i think besides a handful of dollar-lovers nobody claims that.

[HardenedSoul]

Would either of you care to quantify what this collapse will look like?

Can't put numbers on it but don't think they'll matter to be honest. You'll see oil and gold soar followed by co-ordinated central bank intervention to prop it up (not to mention a similar effort to make gold look as unattractive as possible to retail investors even though you can't buy physical gold anywhere in the UK and Europe at the moment). Anything denominated (pretty much everything) in dollars will rise in price.

This turmoil has seen some astronomical swings so don't be surprised if eurodollar went back to $1.60+ and gold at $1000+ . . . and that's being conservative.

[lannarebirth]

oh, and the Fed's probably gonna cut rates again this week

There are absolutely NO fundamentals whatsoever underpinning the dollar "strength". Any shortage of dollars caused by the repatriation of wealth to the US to cover margin calls will reverse quite suddenly and with truly dramatic ramifications for the US. The bond market is the next bubble to burst !

i think besides a handful of dollar-lovers nobody claims that.

You won't find me arguing that point, no more than I would argue why the GBP could go to 2.11. They move it where they can move it.

What appears to be different this time is, THEY are not moving IT, IT is moving THEM.

[lannarebirth]

Would either of you care to quantify what this collapse will look like?

Can't put numbers on it but don't think they'll matter to be honest. You'll see oil and gold soar followed by co-ordinated central bank intervention to prop it up (not to mention a similar effort to make gold look as unattractive as possible to retail investors even though you can't buy physical gold anywhere in the UK and Europe at the moment). Anything denominated (pretty much everything) in dollars will rise in price.

This turmoil has seen some astronomical swings so don't be surprised if eurodollar went back to $1.60+ and gold at $1000+ . . . and that's being conservative.

OK, we've already seen that, so you're limiting your forecast to a retest of the lows. Gotcha.

[Naam]

Would either of you care to quantify what this collapse will look like?

Can't put numbers on it but don't think they'll matter to be honest. You'll see oil and gold soar followed by co-ordinated central bank intervention to prop it up (not to mention a similar effort to make gold look as unattractive as possible to retail investors even though you can't buy physical gold anywhere in the UK and Europe at the moment). Anything denominated (pretty much everything) in dollars will rise in price.

This turmoil has seen some astronomical swings so don't be surprised if eurodollar went back to $1.60+ and gold at $1000+ . . . and that's being conservative.

not correct. my brother in Germany got physical gold handed out today at his bank. he ordered it last thursday afternoon and was told "any amount you want but not smaller than 500 gram units".

[HardenedSoul]

OK, we've already seen that, so you're limiting your forecast to a retest of the lows. Gotcha.

Yes, as in "conservative" !

[OriginalPoster]

OK, we've already seen that, so you're limiting your forecast to a retest of the lows. Gotcha.

Yes, as in "conservative" !

Would it be a fair guess that your less conservative targets are $1650 for gold and 0.52 for the Dollar Index?

[HardenedSoul]

not correct. my brother in Germany got physical gold handed out today at his bank. he ordered it last thursday afternoon and was told "any amount you want but not smaller than 500 gram units".

Then he was fortunate. My sister tried in London at ATS Bullion in Savile Row. Nothing around. She looked on eBay & found it over $1000 an ounce. Personally, I bought mine over a year ago with GoldMoney.com and it's stored in a vault in Zurich.

It's staring everybody in the face. There is a shortage of physical gold which, to even the dumbest person, means that the price should be going UP, right ? WRONG ! http://marketoracle.co.uk/Article6896.html

There are literally THOUSANDS of anecdotes and there is real evidence on the internet attesting to the COMEX's actual gold stockpiles and the value of contracts on their exchange. The difference between their price and the price in the real world cannot be maintained and if I've got to bet on which price will be dominant in the end, I'd be a fool not to go with the real world price.

[binnsy]

Hey when people start buying some shares you will see the Pound gain.At the moment in time i think that we will fall to around 42 Baht to the pound(ouch) but will recover in time IF you have time.

Makes the Leo more expensive FTB.

[HardenedSoul]

Would it be a fair guess that your less conservative targets are $1650 for gold and 0.52 for the Dollar Index?

No. Those are Jim Sinclair's forecasts. www.jsmineset.com

Sometimes, all you really have to do is go with your common sense. Does anyone really think the US going to be able to engineer its way out of this ?

The dollar trades inversely to gold and the dollar is going to collapse. Simple really.

Edited October 27, 2008 by HardenedSoul