Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[Naam]

Chinese bakery owner fear customer with gold in pocket may be a fool

but customer with USD in pocket remove all doubt.

= for sure a Confucious quote!

[flying]

*It is more evidence that various central banks are increasing their gold holdings, in contrast to a number of western banks which have been selling for more than a decade.

It appears that I was right, that central banks were/are buying metals.

You know without saying the *C* word

I really would like to see a independent audit of the US gold reserves.

I cannot fathom why they would not allow it. I cannot believe that we hold supposedly the most gold in the world & yet have not had a independent audit since what ....the 30's? How can that be possible?

I mean strictly for curiosity's sake I would be interested.

Edited May 28, 2009 by flying

[flying]

Boy

Both Gold & Silver continue to impress.

Silver has really been moving too.

[churchill]

Hitmen Contracts to Bust COMEX

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie052809.html

[AlexLah]

Funny story Fly, guess the revenue third party agency did not really like that.

I read that Hitmen story this morning as I was thinking to sell some Gold next week, mmmmmmmm better wait a little bit.

[Abrak]

I am by no means a gold bug in fact it is just the sort of thing I dont usually own but as I see it we are in extraordinary times. One of the reasons I and I suspect most people own it are that governments that make up at least 80% of global money supply are committed to monetizing their debt (at least the 4 major currencies). This should mean the devaluation of those currencies relative to a pretty fixed resource and its rehabilitation as a core source of currency (although I guess we will have to wait and see to what extent this is already reflected in price).

I just wonder how things will stand in 5 years from now when this whole process is essentially over.

I cant believe we will return to a gold standard. I cant believe that faith will be put in another government say RMB as the core reserve or quasi government (new global currency.)

Somehow or other I see one of two possibilities either (1) the US$ remaining the global reserve currency but with the yield curve looking very different to how it does now or (2) a number of smaller currencies (say the Norwegian Kro) acting as mini reserve currencies.

[cloudhopper]

governments that make up at least 80% of global money supply are committed to monetizing their debt (at least the 4 major currencies). This should mean the devaluation of those currencies relative to a pretty fixed resource and its rehabilitation as a core source of currency

Not necessarily if all of the monetization is being absorbed by bank reserves or repayment of debt. As long as global debt exceeds monetization (by what, 10X ?) then newly created money will not enter into circulation and increase demand/prices.

[flying]

Geez there she goes again !

I thought one more pull back before 1000 for sure.

Now I am not so sure....If there is one maybe Monday or Tuesday?

But if it blows through 1000 I wonder.

Aside form that notice Silver again? $15.65 Wow

Edited May 29, 2009 by flying

[PCA]

Gold closing above 972 today translates it wants to move into the next higher price dimension bringing 12/1300 in sight. Can still turn out as a trap but who holds don't sell :)

[flying]

Gold closing above 972 today translates it wants to move into the next higher price dimension bringing 12/1300 in sight. Can still turn out as a trap but who holds don't sell

The open next week will be very interesting I think.

Once it started bouncing back & forth in that 860-930 range. I had a hunch it was not coming back.

Looked like it was coiling & getting ready for this & it has not disappointed.

We will see.....Pretty interesting to watch though

[Naam]

Gold closing above 972 today translates it wants to move into the next higher price dimension bringing 12/1300 in sight. Can still turn out as a trap but who holds don't sell

The open next week will be very interesting I think. Once it started bouncing back & forth in that 860-930 range. I had a hunch it was not coming back.

Looked like it was coiling & getting ready for this & it has not disappointed.

as so often nobody seems to realise that (depending on the reference currency) ~$140-185 of the price increase was caused by a weakening US-Dollar. or is it just a matter of convenience to neglect that?

i sincerely apologise for spoiling a nice success story with some stupid facts

[Naam]

Geez there she goes again !

geez, there "he" (who is used to quote gold) falls again (USD vs. AUD, NZD, GBP, EUR):

[flying]

geez, there "he" (who is used to quote gold) falls again (USD vs. AUD, NZD, GBP, EUR):

Yes of course I understand what your saying but.............

1) I am in USD as are many trading gold or oil

2) Even if I over lay the Euro, Yen or AUD they all seem happy today & all show a similar recent few days which I described as coiling a week or so ago. Yes they do not jump as much today but they all show + above zero

Again I see what your saying but it does not change the fact that anyone who decides the dollar is in fact failing has the same opportunity to capitalize on that info yes?

I do also agree the dollar dropping yet again today has a big part in golds price but...not always the only factor as we have seen both also rise in tandem in the past.

I am not saying this is the end all but as I said earlier it is interesting to watch

[attachm

ent=84666:eur_vs_us_gld.jpg]

Edited May 29, 2009 by flying

[cloudhopper]

http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/free-reports/gold-carry/

[Naam]

I do also agree the dollar dropping yet again today has a big part in golds price but...not always the only factor as we have seen both also rise in tandem in the past.

i am not referring to "today" Flying but to the last 3-4 months and i do not post my "spoiling the party facts" to educate you. they are meant for the "general public" who might get either a wrong impression or carried away (one Krüger Rand = one bakery) when reading:

quote: "Geez there she goes again !" and "Looked like it was coiling & getting ready for this & it has not disappointed."

i apologise for being an àsshole. it's all genetics, please don't judge me too severe

[flying]

i am not referring to "today" Flying but to the last 3-4 months and i do not post my "spoiling the party facts" to educate you. they are meant for the "general public" who might get either a wrong impression or carried away (one Krüger Rand = one bakery) when reading:

quote: "Geez there she goes again !" and "Looked like it was coiling & getting ready for this & it has not disappointed."

i apologise for being an àsshole. it's all genetics, please don't judge me too severe

No problem............

Like I said it is interesting to watch.

The things I stated were valid for me as I bought in USD.

Also I was happy to see something react the way I thought it might.

But that aside seeing what you said above as not referring to today.

That was when I made *my* comment

But again that aside I also noted that *today* the news also said the Dollar is down on the Euro 6.4% for the month.........But.........It also said it is down 1.2%for the year.

Taking that info & looking at what PM's are up for the year in *those* currencies I think holders of both may be smiling. Not so much that they may buy bakeries but that their investment in PM's has in fact done what it is most well known for..........Preserved their wealth during a choppy period.

We will see if it continues to *impress* in that vein

[Naam]

But again that aside I also noted that *today* the news also said the Dollar is down on the Euro 6.4% for the month.........But..... It also said it is down 1.2% for the year.

Taking that info & looking at what PM's are up for the year in *those* currencies I think holders of both may be smiling. Not so much that they may buy bakeries but that their investment in PM's has in fact done what it is most well known for...... Preserved their wealth during a choppy period.

one misconception Flying. your claim assumes that the holders of €URos kept their money under the mattress (as the holders of gold bars/coins do) and did not put their money to work.

[flying]

one misconception Flying. your claim assumes that the holders of €URos kept their money under the mattress (as the holders of gold bars/coins do) and did not put their money to work.

Hey have you been under my matress again?

No really I do assume many made more by shorting or even some right way bets on some stocks etc.

But many do in fact try to put a percentage into what they feel will be a safe spot.

That is all I meant.

[PCA]

Gold closing above 972 today translates it wants to move into the next higher price dimension bringing 12/1300 in sight. Can still turn out as a trap but who holds don't sell

The open next week will be very interesting I think. Once it started bouncing back & forth in that 860-930 range. I had a hunch it was not coming back.

Looked like it was coiling & getting ready for this & it has not disappointed.

as so often nobody seems to realise that (depending on the reference currency) ~$140-185 of the price increase was caused by a weakening US-Dollar. or is it just a matter of convenience to neglect that?

i sincerely apologise for spoiling a nice success story with some stupid facts

Question: when Gold rose from 250 to 1000 at the same time did the US$ lose 75% of its value? I don't want to be misinterpreted as a gold bug here but should we not let Gold price in one other fact namely we are writing financial history in this and the "few" next moments to come? Anyway important chart/price area is broken, trend is up, institutional buy orders have triggered and within a few weeks we all will be smarter and hey maybe even richer

[Naam]

Question: when Gold rose from 250 to 1000 at the same time did the US$ lose 75% of its value? I don't want to be misinterpreted as a gold bug here but should we not let Gold price in one other fact namely we are writing financial history in this and the "few" next moments to come? Anyway important chart/price area is broken, trend is up, institutional buy orders have triggered and within a few weeks we all will be smarter and hey maybe even richer

not really. but when gold rose from 860 in 1980 till today at 980, a huge price increase of linear 0.48% p.a. the USD lost definitely 75% of its purchase power.

small back-up for my claim and even a shorter period: in 1990 my wife and me pushed each a full trolley of goods when we left the supermarket in the U.S. after the Mrs paid around 80 dollars at the cashier. in 2005 i could carry the bags with both hands with the goods for which the Mrs paid the same amount.

[flying]

not really. but when gold rose from 860 in 1980 till today at 980, a huge price increase of linear 0.48% p.a. the USD lost definitely 75% of its purchase power.

small back-up for my claim and even a shorter period: in 1990 my wife and me pushed each a full trolley of goods when we left the supermarket in the U.S. after the Mrs paid around 80 dollars at the cashier. in 2005 i could carry the bags with both hands with the goods for which the Mrs paid the same amount.

Of course the example you give is correct. But it is also a peak in an otherwise pretty nice chart. A peak that lasts a short while in a 34 year chart.Anyone to be as unlucky as the one to buy & hold that one is probably dead of suicide now

But I will agree the food prices are....crazy!!!

Your lucky. You should try & shop here where a box of ceral is now well over 200 baht & bread is close to that per loaf too.

[Naam]

But I will agree the food prices are....crazy!!!

my republican redneck friends claim it's all because an n-word is occupying the White House boy, ah sez ah's lookin' forward fo' sho' to meet all of them in early autumn for a two week long hunting trip in suzzern Ah-lah-bah-mah! it has been three years. amazing is that two members of this group are n-words who sing the same tunes as the ku-kluxers. for your info Flying: our friendship originates >40 years back when we were hunting/hunted in one of the nearby countries. ahmmm... i don't mean a country near Hawaii

[Abrak]

one misconception Flying. your claim assumes that the holders of €URos kept their money under the mattress (as the holders of gold bars/coins do) and did not put their money to work.

Yes, I suspect most gold holders (including myself) missed out in the bounce in the Dow. If you had switched out of gold at its relative bottom to the Dow in March and then back in at its relative top in May, you would have made 33%.

Still it would be a drop in the bucket compared to getting the overall call between gold and the Dow right over the last few years. One of the things I like about this chart is that it doesnt look as though gold is 'obviously' overvalued against equities based on historic valuation. Given that there are no value parameters for gold this is one of the few straws one can grasp at. Strangely enough, given the wonderful world of investment, when gold does look expensive on this parameter - say at US$3500 - there will be fund managers arguing that 'gold has consistently proven to be the best investment over the long term' which always translates into 'x is the currently the most overvalued asset in the short term'. It used to be equity fund managers who said this, now it is bond fund managers, I guess on the basis that every dog has his day, PM fund managers will be talking this way at some point in the future.

[Naam]

one misconception Flying. your claim assumes that the holders of €URos kept their money under the mattress (as the holders of gold bars/coins do) and did not put their money to work.

Yes, I suspect most gold holders (including myself) missed out in the bounce in the Dow. If you had switched out of gold at its relative bottom to the Dow in March and then back in at its relative top in May, you would have made 33%.

Abrak, may i [not so ] humbly draw your attention to the fact that not even in his wildest dreams a self-respecting €UR-lover would think of investing his hard earned pennies in the casino called "Dow" and that applies to european stock markets too. prudent €-investors made a killing by investing in subordinated bonds of €-financial institutions when the first green shoots could be seen in march. i am not talking 30% but 100% and more across the board, within 2½ months!

Edited May 30, 2009 by Naam

[flying]

Financial Thrilla in Manila! Will it be Jim Sinclair's bull rocket, or Jim Rogers' sledgehammer?

http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/05.09/thrilla.html

[AlexLah]

I guess nobody had a look at my scientific model that predicted a run to 965-985

[badge]

[...]prudent €-investors made a killing by investing in subordinated bonds of €-financial institutions when the first green shoots could be seen in march. i am not talking 30% but 100% and more across the board, within 2½ months!

so did financial equity players, with greater liquidity and lower costs Im not even entertaining talk of liquidation creditors

[badge]

I guess nobody had a look at my scientific model that predicted a run to 965-985

Nope. When did you demonstrate your 'model'? Last week? Last year?

Whilst I dont make much note of posters on this forum Alex - as most here seem only interested in buffering their social interaction, virtually, arguing with strangers - Im confident I would have noticed a bullish model amongst your photos of scantily clad women So why dont you remind us(of the model!)

[Abrak]

I remember the model precisely and duely took note of the reverse head and shoulders, 4 Elliott Waves, 2 key reversals and the triangular breakout. I was somewhat puzzled by the Fibonacci breakdown but then I am not one for analysis in general. And the circle in the middle looked really impressive.

[Naam]

[...]prudent €-investors made a killing by investing in subordinated bonds of €-financial institutions when the first green shoots could be seen in march. i am not talking 30% but 100% and more across the board, within 2½ months!

so did financial equity players, with greater liquidity and lower costs Im not even entertaining talk of liquidation creditors

i don't deny that Badge but "bondsmen" like me consider buying, trading, holding equities (in any market) as hazardous gambling