Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[flying]

here's the beef:

Yes it is obvious it is his Hypothesis/suggestion of a possible alternative.

New all-time high in EUR

Not too bad in USD today either. Also back to 49/1 s/g

Silver does not seem as bothered by option expiration's up 4% today

Edited November 30, 2010 by flying

[crusader79]

Therefore—regardless if it’s a (worst case) full-on euro-collapse, or a (best case) orderly expulsion of the weak and insolvent economies from the eurozone—the big winners will be precious metals, commodities (industrial, agro and oil), the Swiss franc, the pound sterling, British gilts, the dollar, and U.S. Treasury bonds. In that order.

Europeans have history to guide them: They know that in times of trouble, precious metals are the safest haven. Furthermore, a lot of them—rightfully—don’t trust the crazies running the Federal Reserve: They think that QE and it various iterations are insane.

http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2010/11/as-euro-goes-way-of-dodo-where-does.html#more

[flying]

http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2010/11/as-euro-goes-way-of-dodo-where-does.html#more

Thanks for the reminder

That gonzalolira is a good blog that I have read from time to time.

[crusader79]

http://gonzalolira.b...-does.html#more

Thanks for the reminder

That gonzalolira is a good blog that I have read from time to time.

I find he often puts his finger on things I've long known are true but haven't been able to fully express. I thought this essay was particularly insightful:

http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2010/11/selecting-for-cynicism-in-ivy-league.html

[jazzbo]

That gonzalolira is a good blog ... Any blog that agrees with me is a good one.

[flying]

If he is right we could see that 47/1

[Naam]

That gonzalolira is a good blog ... Any blog that agrees with me is a good one.

why do i have the feeling you are trying hard to take over from me Jazzbo?

[crusader79]

Faber December report:

Gold & Silver--Faber still likes gold and continues to accumulate ounces, but he says a correction to $1200 would not surprise him. Gold bull market remains intact as the majority of individual investors and institutions remain under invested.

http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle/articleid/4707371

[Naam]

Mrs Naam and two of her sisters are on a shopping spree. i am trying to convince the hotel management to move some furniture out of the living room that she has more space to strut around when she returns and checks the gold price.

[churchill]

IMF gold sales completion imminent

With the IMF gold sales program expected to end this month or next and Central Banks becoming buyers rather than sellers, the balances in the gold market are changing

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=116025&sn=Detail&pid=102055

[churchill]

Mrs Naam and two of her sisters are on a shopping spree. i am trying to convince the hotel management to move some furniture out of the living room that she has more space to strut around when she returns and checks the gold price.

from the link above

'Consequently, the only additional source of supply will have to be scrap supply or supply from current holders. So we ask, "At what price will current holders sell?'

Can your wife tell us Naam where we are heading ?

[jazzbo]

Kuhn Naam -- As per #3387 above if I am trying at all to take over, I am not trying hard -- these guys make it easy... Just to keep things even I am even considering starting the topic 'Is Gold Destined To Collapse ... If So, When?' with the sub-head 'when it is time to run, don't get caught holding the bag' a la Forbes.com

Edited December 1, 2010 by jazzbo

[lannarebirth]

If he is right we could see that 47/1

No idea where Gold and Silver are headed but I WILL say that is not a H&S pattern. Aside from m/l symmetric price action, the CHIEF indicator of a H&S pattern is volume. Volume when breaking through the "neckline". There is no true neckline in this chart and if there is where is the data showing huge increases in volume once the neckline is breached?

Now you could draw it another way and get a neckline around 18, in which case the target is met. Still, even that is meaningless without volume considerations.

[lannarebirth]

Mrs Naam and two of her sisters are on a shopping spree. i am trying to convince the hotel management to move some furniture out of the living room that she has more space to strut around when she returns and checks the gold price.

Is it the "wealth effect" or is she cashing in?

[lannarebirth]

Kuhn Naam -- As per #3387 above if I am trying at all to take over, I am not trying hard -- these guys make it easy... Just to keep things even I am even considering starting the topic 'Is Gold Destined To Collapse ... If So, When?' with the sub-head 'when it is time to run, don't get caught holding the bag' a la Forbes.com

It is a shame you edited your post jazzbo, because I had some really good comments about how much weight one should give to the comments of someone who made their money "the old fashioned way".

[jazzbo]

OK Kuhn L. I'll put it back -- BTW I would consider my late Father a Goldwater Conservative -- what I said was when I was auditing his accounts for the 'cost basis' after he died I noticed that he had held stocks for 30 or 40 years that were still selling at the same price as when they were purchased years earlier -- just that they had split about 200:1 -- I took the post out because you guys can make fun of me all that you want -- just leave him (as mentioned in the 'Golf Forum') out of it.

[lannarebirth]

OK Kuhn L. I'll put it back -- BTW I would consider my late Father a Goldwater Conservative -- what I said was when I was auditing his accounts for the 'cost basis' after he died I noticed that he had held stocks for 30 or 40 years that were still selling at the same price as when they were purchased years earlier -- just that they had split about 200:1 -- I took the post out because you guys can make fun of me all that you want -- just leave him (as mentioned in the 'Golf Forum') out of it.

If there were such a thing as a "Goldwater Conservative" anymore, I might be one too, though I guess our global times have passed all that by.

[gregb]

OK Kuhn L. I'll put it back -- BTW I would consider my late Father a Goldwater Conservative -- what I said was when I was auditing his accounts for the 'cost basis' after he died I noticed that he had held stocks for 30 or 40 years that were still selling at the same price as when they were purchased years earlier -- just that they had split about 200:1 -- I took the post out because you guys can make fun of me all that you want -- just leave him (as mentioned in the 'Golf Forum') out of it.

A very smart man and a very wise investment during the period of industrial expansion that we have just completed.

Unfortunately, for the next century or two during resource scarcity and decline, such an investment model will lead to poverty. Gold and other hard, desirable assets will outperform many stocks in the future. Trying to figure out which companies are going to make it through the gauntlet of the next several decades is going to be akin to gambling. Adaptability, resourcefulness and local production are going to be the keys, and large companies are likely to be too slow and set in their ways to be competitive. The ones who survive are likely to be small and nimble, who can thrive while the multinationals collapse.

But the era of growing by a factor of 200 is over for everyone, at least for the next several generations. That is why gold is the go to asset today. Many very smart people realize this, although it would be pandemonium if they admitted it.

[Naam]

Mrs Naam and two of her sisters are on a shopping spree. i am trying to convince the hotel management to move some furniture out of the living room that she has more space to strut around when she returns and checks the gold price.

Is it the "wealth effect" or is she cashing in?

she wouldn't think of cashing in after her next three reincarnations. the brain functions of goldbugs are...

[Naam]

Mrs Naam and two of her sisters are on a shopping spree. i am trying to convince the hotel management to move some furniture out of the living room that she has more space to strut around when she returns and checks the gold price.

from the link above

'Consequently, the only additional source of supply will have to be scrap supply or supply from current holders. So we ask, "At what price will current holders sell?'

Can your wife tell us Naam where we are heading ?

i know her answer should i ask: "you and your stupid questions!"

[Naam]

Kuhn Naam -- As per #3387 above if I am trying at all to take over, I am not trying hard -- these guys make it easy... Just to keep things even I am even considering starting the topic 'Is Gold Destined To Collapse ... If So, When?' with the sub-head 'when it is time to run, don't get caught holding the bag' a la Forbes.com

that would be fun!

[jazzbo]

Ronald Reagan was a 'Goldwater Conservative' before there became such a thing as a 'Reagan Conservative' ... Personally I still believe in the well-diversified portfolio which certainly includes but does not over-weight precious metals and other scarceties... you are just giving up too much upside potential when you due... many 'very smart people' realize this as well.

[crusader79]

Kuhn Naam -- As per #3387 above if I am trying at all to take over, I am not trying hard -- these guys make it easy... Just to keep things even I am even considering starting the topic 'Is Gold Destined To Collapse ... If So, When?' with the sub-head 'when it is time to run, don't get caught holding the bag' a la Forbes.com

that would be fun!

That's already the purpose of this thread, but if you're not holding a bagful of unrealized gold profits, you don't have to worry about it.

[jazzbo]

from Post #3398: Unfortunately, for the next century or two during resource scarcity and decline, such an investment model will lead to poverty. ... Why such a narrow time frame?

[churchill]

China Gold Imports Soar Almost Fivefold on Inflation

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-02/china-gold-imports-jump-almost-fivefold-as-inflation-outlook-spurs-demand.html

[churchill]

Interesting

'Dollars to gold ratio

The chart below shows the relationship between global liquid dollar money, and its multiple of the value of the US government's declared gold holdings.

Liquid dollar money is taken to be the sum of:

Total domestic and foreign deposits less time deposits.

Currency in circulation.

Excess reserves held at the Fed.

Savings instant demand deposits.

Private investors' Treasury holdings.

All these items are intended to represent sources of cash that individuals and businesses feel are available for them to spend at any time. It is not perfect, merely an approximation, and divided by the value of gold owned by the US government is represented in the chart by the blue line, plotted against the left-hand scale. To complete the illustration, the gold price is shown in red, plotted against the right-hand scale.'

continued ...http://www.financeandeconomics.org/Articles%20archive/2010.12.01%20Dollar_gold_ratio.htm

[jazzbo]

I think of this scene from The Sting when I read some 'interesting' reference to news that all the real players knew long before it reached here in the farm leagues (baseball reference) ... I mean if you think a chart has some revealing data think of what the guys with the supercomputers have already figured out:

INT. DRUGSTORE - NIGHT

He runs into a drugstore and goes to the phone booth.

There's already a woman in it. Hooker rips open the door

and throws her out. Hurriedly, he begins to dial.

EIRIE KID

(standing outside the booth)

What the hell you gonna do when

Snyder rushes his finger right to

Lonnegan? You're committin'

suicide, kid.

HOOKER

(waiting for the ring)

Aw Christ, it doesn't make no

difference now. If Snyder knows

about it so does everybody else.

He never gets anything first...

[churchill]

Will Silver end dream run of JP Morgan?

Perhaps / I don't agree that JPM can forever settle in cash - those wanting delivery will either stand for delivery or realise that they are going to get a higher cash settlement - JPM is digging their own grave /

'The futures market has unfortunately lost their value as a means of physical delivery. More and more contracts are settled in cash, and silver contracts can now be fulfilled with delivery of an effective derivative, the SLV ETF. People and banks like JP Morgan, with their long ties to government and regulators, will forever make the rules. They have instituted a type of financial democracy, where since they have all the money, the ball is in their court.

A play on monetary metals like gold and silver through the futures market is a play on the dollar and fiat currencies more than JP Morgan. Already, confidence in global currency is plummeting so quickly that the dollar is actually rising against a basket of currencies, never mind America's own fiscal problems. In this race to the bottom, you can bet that even if the Fed has to soak up the whole of America's debt to bail out JP Morgan, the deed will be done.

Buy silver for you, as an investment and protection against the falling confidence in global fiat currencies. Focusing on JP Morgan is giving them more attention and notoriety than it deserves.'

[jazzbo]

A play on monetary metals like gold and silver through the futures market is a play on the dollar and fiat currencies more than JP Morgan

from the screenplay of My Cousin Vinny:

Judge Chamberlain: Are you on drugs?

[Naam]

Already, confidence in global currency is plummeting so quickly that the dollar is actually rising against a basket of currencies, never mind America's own fiscal problems.

should read "has been rising" and "now falling again" and inspite of the "plummeting confidence in global currency" 99.99999% of all business (trades and investment) is still carried out denominated in these much cursed and plummeting fiat currencies.

i also assume that the two handbags and the three pairs of shoes Mrs Naam bought yesterday were not paid for in gold.