Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[Naam]

technical correction or is the bubble bursting? what say you Churchill?

[mania]

The USD is now at 80.83 yet look at where gold & silver sits?

I do not think it is doing badly at all.

[spidermike007]

What does the chart readers here think is a good buy spot for gold?

Is support at or around 650-700? Technically speaking

Yes, there should be strong support in the $640-$670 level, once that level falls then a good "buy spot" for gold would be in the upper $300's (wait for about $365-$370 if possible). Then hold on tight to that gold and wait for about ten years and the next great gold run should begin

What planet are you living on? Wait ten years? Do you honestly believe the world economy is just going to hold on, to wait for the next gold cycle? Wow. Talk about denial. The economy may tank so hard that most real, hard commodities will appreciate. Many believe most western currencies will tank. And you believe gold will just hang in there in the upper 300's? I wish.

[churchill]

technical correction or is the bubble bursting? what say you Churchill?

I think Gold and Silver are under pressure here and are holding up well - but We could see further pressure today . Some are trying to trigger stops and cause a wave of further selling but there seems to be good buying support - So far ! IMO no bubble bursting just a correction - Sit tight and check the price in a couple of weeks

[AlexLah]

Buy The Dip!

[churchill]

Short video - Support at $1362

http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold1611/?blog

[churchill]

It's going to be a difficult day for sure -

some gossip

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_J/threadview?m=te&bn=10073&tid=381868&mid=381868&tof=2&frt=2#381868

[Naam]

Short video - Support at $1362

http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold1611/?blog

1358.30

[Naam]

but there seems to be good buying support

[Chunky1]

technical correction or is the bubble bursting? what say you Churchill?

quote the US Congress

"We can only pay our debt by borrowing more money"

what has changed fundamentally about the US dollar?

sure, the Fed has created an inflationary bubble so some paper money gold is being moved into stocks, so what? what has changed about the long term picture of precious metals vs the US dollar? if you are a short term trader then you can worry about what to do in the next 2 days. i would rather invest long term.

Edited January 7, 2011 by Chunky1

[lannarebirth]

Short video - Support at $1362

http://broadcast.ino.../gold1611/?blog

1358.30

FYI, Support is at 1354 (ish).

[gregb]

Another $50 or so and it will be the perfect opportunity to trade some of that fiat currency for the much more stable currency called gold. Never feel bad about a gift of discounted gold. This won't even register as a pothole in the larger scheme. Unless you have the time and inclination to be a day trader and made a bad guess, dips like this are only good news.

And before the usual crowd start crowing "That fiat buys me what I need. You can't buy groceries with gold", I would like to respond:

"Looks like at Tesco now, you can."

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/01/05/449471/every-little-trinket-helps/

[old wanderer]

Another $50 or so and it will be the perfect opportunity to trade some of that fiat currency for the much more stable currency called gold.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/01/05/449471/every-little-trinket-helps/

Do you really think waiting for the $50/oz drop at these prices will be noticeable? About 3.7% difference. In the long term you will still be fine at these prices.

Also if you want to maximize your gains, then pay attention to the gold/silver ration and that trend. Last summer it took 65 oz of silver to buy 1 oz of gold, today it takes 47. They are symbiotic in nature. Silver is a lot thinner in trade, and over reacts to movement. We have seen the ratio moves from almost 100:1 (When the Hunt brother crash of silver (1980) happened) and 16:1 when the markets were tied to currency.

The trend today is to lower the ratio. Some that watch it will swap silver for gold when they reach 40:1, other 30:1, for me it will be in the 20's:1 somewhere. At that point moving into gold, and waiting for years for something to happen again that forces silver to be dis-guarded, or out of favor. Should the ration get around 80:1 I would move back to silver.

The net result for me is to have realized 40% more profit in silver than if I would have bought gold over the past year.

Edited January 8, 2011 by old wanderer

[badge]

JS Midas?

http://www.youtube.com/user/maxkeisertv?blend=1&ob=4

[mania]

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2011/01/massive-drainage-of-silver-at.html

"And now for the big silver report.

We witnessed a massive withdrawal of silver unprecedented in the history of the comex. First there was a smallish 6507 oz of silver deposited to two customers, one being 497 oz and the other 6010 oz). But just look at the huge withdrawals:

Four customers (not dealers) withdrew a total of 1,019,310 oz from the comex vaults. This is real silver leaving from 4 registered vaults. The individual withdrawals are: 579,081, 30,380, 399,994 and 9855 oz.

The dealer (our bankers) also were involved in the withdrawal of silver to the tune of 769,941 oz (there were 2 dealers involved removing 102,866 and 667,875 ozs). When you see this massive drain of silver, the fire is raging. The total silver withdrawal by both dealer and customer totalled an astronomical 1,789,251. The Brink's trucks must have been very busy yesterday.

The comex folk notified us that an amazing 85 notices were sent down for servicing for a total of 425,000 oz of silver. The total number of silver notices sent down so far total 323 or 1,615,000 oz. To obtain what is left to be served, I take the open interest for January at 153 and subtract 85 deliveries leaving a total of 68 notices or 340,000 oz left to be serviced.

Thus the total number of silver ounces standing in this non delivery month of January is as follows:

1,615,000 oz + 340,000 = 1,955,000 oz (Thursday total = 1,625,000). As promised to you, this number is rising and will continue to rise until the end of the month as our banker cartel scrambles to get any morsel of silver to satisfy the massive demand for this metal. Our bankers are stunned to see such a huge amount of silver options in a traditionally slow month.

I hope everyone caught the Eric Sprott story on Kingworld news that he is having trouble locating silver."

[crusader79]

So, why are some gold stocks lagging as bullion prices are surging?

I asked a couple of fund managers what was going on.

Donald Coxe, chair of Coxe Advisors LLP in Chicago, is adviser to the Coxe Commodity Strategy Fund, listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

He says there's a fear that gold mining companies could have problems replacing their production in the future.

Nevada is almost tapped out. Not much exploration is going on in Canada. And the areas where gold may be found – such as Mexico and Colombia – carry political or operating risks.

There's also concern about the contracts that miners such as Goldcorp entered into in the past 10 years with Silver Wheaton Corp.

Silver Wheaton agreed to buy their silver deposits and pay for them up front, giving companies more capital to develop the gold mines.

The price of silver was languishing at about $4 (U.S.) an ounce when these contracts were signed. It hit $10 a year ago and is at almost $30 now.

"Silver went up more than gold did," Coxe points out. "There's a sense that the contracts were too low. The gold miners removed their silver hedges in exchange for up-front cash. They were giving it away."

http://www.thestar.c...tarticle/916069

[mania]

India, Iran Mull over gold for oil now

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/energy/oil--gas/india-iran-mull-over-gold-for-oil-for-now/articleshow/7238760.cms

[old wanderer]

For decades the US Dollar has been the standard of trade in the world. In the past year we have seen many countries establishing alternate settlement agreements.

The US Dollar is created out of "thin air"! This is only partially true. If you mean that the Federal Reserve bank (FRB) and our government central planners can create new money anytime they want, then the answer is yes. But, since the dollar is actually a claim against the assets of the American people, then no, it is not "thin air". Every new dollar creates new debt against our very livelihood.

"Ever since gold was removed as the backing of our currency, personal labor and property have taken gold's place as collateral for our national debt. Every time the Federal Reserve Bank creates new money, it is a claim against your labor and property. It's not a coincident that the IRS was created at the same time as the FRB. It is their agency to collect your payments against your indebtedness.

Without a sound monetary system, we become the chattel for our national debt (14 trillion dollars and counting). This represents about $60,000 for every man, women and child in our country. That's $240,000 worth of debt placed directly on the shoulders of a family of 4. We have become property guaranteeing payment to the world bankers and other nations accepting our currency."

When a person, business or a country's debt goes beyond its ability to pay, it will sooner or later face bankruptcy. We are already seeing a huge rise in home foreclosures across the country caused by run-away inflation by new dollar creation by the FRB. The bankers are collecting on the debt by taking the very homes of our fellow Americans (as predicted by Jefferson those many years ago). This will be one of the greatest transfers of wealth from the middle class to the central bankers and government central planners in history.

While the US Dollar is back by "The full faith and confidence" of the government there are some in the "fringe" element like myself that have lost confidence in the government. Other countries that are not tied by an emotional nationalism to America can just look at the facts, and history to extrapolte what will happen to this country. It has painted itself into a corner where there is no excape. As they cannot pay for what they spend and give away, they borrow by issuring bonds. When noboys wants to invest money becuase they doubt they will profit by it, the cost of intrest on those bonds increases. Today the country even at these very low intrest rates cannot pay the intrest on the national debt, and pay the "entitlement" programs it has saddled itself with, without borrowing money.

Conclusion...default on the debt, and your currancy collapses. Default on the entitlements, and you have riots in the streets and anarchy. The imbroglio nobody wants to talk about.

Where is gold going...in truth it is going nowhere, it will remain solid, and what we see as an increase in the price in truth will only be a devaluation of nations currencies.

I moved every all my money in Thailand into gold 2 years ago, and last year every penny I had into silver int he USA. Last year I saw a 23% rise in gold and 78% rise in silver. I do not believe it is a bubble. At the same time my gasoline prices doubled, my food prices increased by 60%, so if I were to sell som metal, I would be able to buy about the same things as I did before I got gold and silver.

However if I have a debt, paying that debt becomes much cheaper as the value of money fall.

So my tin hat is reflecting my computer screen and hurting my eyes, but I will just keep wearing it, and watch these currencies drop like a rock. At least I can afford to pay my electric bill and have a cold beer for those of you to stop by and moan about how expensive everything is becomming.

[mania]

Good post OW

It is true that the USD is backed by a future promise laid on the shoulders of its citizens.

But if the citizens ever get it that they are being robbed they could decide to have a tax revolt or go underground as many goods & services have already.

The one thing that may keep the citizens forever bound to the taxes is the greater & greater numbers on government assistance.

Getting their food also from the govt means they will not likely bite the hand that feeds them. But again at that point who is actually paying any taxes?

Just the government printing presses.

This does not go unnoticed by the government either. Soon they will really crack down of farmers markets, Ebay etc. & may go so far as to shift to mandatory direct deposits of all payrolls & move towards digital/debt card only type of transactions to better keep an eye on its citizens.

Of course the claim will be made that they moved to this system to catch illegal drug money, terrorism etc.

[Naam]

Edited January 11, 2011 by Naam

[old wanderer]

Good post OW

It is true that the USD is backed by a future promise laid on the shoulders of its citizens.

But if the citizens ever get it that they are being robbed they could decide to have a tax revolt or go underground as many goods & services have already.

The one thing that may keep the citizens forever bound to the taxes is the greater & greater numbers on government assistance.

Getting their food also from the govt means they will not likely bite the hand that feeds them. But again at that point who is actually paying any taxes?

Just the government printing presses.

This does not go unnoticed by the government either. Soon they will really crack down of farmers markets, Ebay etc. & may go so far as to shift to mandatory direct deposits of all payrolls & move towards digital/debt card only type of transactions to better keep an eye on its citizens.

Of course the claim will be made that they moved to this system to catch illegal drug money, terrorism etc.

That is exactly the point Mania:

One of the reason the Democrats keep expanding the government and benefits is we have a 1 person 1 vote system now in the United States. When the country was founded only male land owners were allowed to vote.

Today the top 1% pay over a third, 34.27% of all income taxes. The top 5% pay 54.36% of all income taxes. The top 10% pay 65.84%. The top 25% pay 83.88%. The top 50% pay 96.54%. The bottom 50%? They pay a paltry 3.46% of all income taxes. The top 1% is paying nearly ten times the federal income taxes than the bottom 50%! And many in that bottom 50% receive payments for "Earned Income Credit", even though they paid no federal taxes.

10 years ago in London, they averaged less than 6 cases a year of people renouncing their USA citizenship. Today there is a 6 month waiting list to renounce citizenship....WHY...The American government lays claim to wages people make regardless of whether they have set foot inside the USA in years. Many with dual nationalities. Yes they give you a $80,000 deduction, but then you next dollar is taxed as though there is no deduction. If you do file each year, you loose the deduction and cannot have it applied retroactively... (I have some friends in Thailand that got welcomed home with detention for tax evasion, because they thought they were under the $80k ceiling and did not even have to file. After paying penalties and interest, it was pretty ugly. At least they did not have to go to jail).

So your point is that soon the American government will start looking for ways to expand the money it brings in...it has been happening for years...15 years ago, working as an Expat, was a great life with home, car, servants, school allowances for children, and great salaries...then they decided all those benefits were taxable...

So I repeat my statement...Where is Gold going?????? NOWHERE!!!!! it is simply the currencies dropping in value.

I do not expect a parabolic rise, and certainly the governments will fight back shorting gold and silver, to try and make appear the fiat currency is a greater value than it is. These will be times to take a part of your holding and trade back and forth a bit. (In the past week was an opportunity to pick up almost 10% in silver between Jan 2 and Jan 7.

[ExpatJ]

I see by the activity on this thread that everyone who owns a few baht of gold, loves talking about it

Well, here is a good quote i lifted from a CNBC commentator yesterday:

"I think not owning gold is a form of insanity, it may even show unhealthy masochistic tendencies, which might need medical attention"

Quite funny and true in the medium term (next few months ) i would say.

[churchill]

Harry Schultz’s last testament

Commentary: Letter gives final investment allocation recommendation

'After 45 years, Harry Schultz has just published the last issue of his International Harry Schultz Letter. He’s superbearish but opportunistic.'

'But one thing is clear: In recent years, HSL has done brilliantly. It’s the third-best performer over the last past 12 months, up 39.65% by Hulbert Financial Digest count, versus 17.16% for the dividend-reinvested Wilshire 5000 Total Stock Market Index. Over the past ten years, the letter was up an annualized 8.94%, versus 2.5% annualized for the total return Wilshire 5000.

.......continued .. and

'Schultz’s final investment allocation recommendation:

• 5-10% Stocks (nongolds).

• 15-20% Commodities: via futures, commodity stocks &/or physical assets.

• 50% gold stocks & bullion: 15% blue chips, 5% junior, 5% bullion via futures, 25-35% in physical bullion.

• 0% currencies (“Close out ALL fiduciary time/call deposits, money market funds & municipal bonds, pension funds…”)

• 1-5% Cash in hand. (“Stored privately.”)

• 0-5% bear stock market protection via ETFs like ProShares UltraShort Dow30 /quotes/comstock/13*!dxd/quotes/nls/dxd (DXD 20.49, +0.14, +0.69%) .

• 15-20% Government notes/bills/bonds (“In 3-6 month T-Bills/bonds only — buy these only in Swiss Francs, Australian dollars, Canadian dollars, Brazilian reals, Singapore dollars, Chinese Yuan only).”

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/harry-schultz-last-investment-testament-2011-01-10

[Naam]

Over the past ten years, the letter was up an annualized 8.94%...

[mania]

http://gata.org/node/9496

Judge orders Fed to deliver gold records for her review

Submitted by cpowell on Mon, 2011-01-10 19:05. Section: Daily Dispatches 2:18p ET Monday, January 10, 2011

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA today scored a small but perhaps auspicious victory over the Federal Reserve in our lawsuit seeking access to the Fed's secret gold files. The judge presiding over GATA's federal freedom-of-information lawsuit in U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, Ellen Segal Huvelle, granted GATA's motion to order the Fed to produce in complete form for the judge's private review 20 gold-related documents the Fed has sought to keep secret. The judge ordered the Fed to deliver the documents by Friday.

Through its lawyers, William J. Olson P.C. of Vienna, Virginia -- www.LawAndFreedom.com -- GATA has argued that the Fed's production of gold-related documents has been so inadequate and the Fed's arguments for keeping them secret so weak that the court should review the documents acknowledged by the Fed and order the Fed to answer 25 questions from GATA about the Fed's search for relevant information.

While Judge Huvelle still could grant at any time the Fed's motion to dismiss GATA's lawsuit, her ruling today at least implies a little skepticism about the Fed and its tactics. Combined with today's statement by U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, the new chairman of the House Financial Services Committee's Subcommittee on Monetary Policy (http://www.gata.org/node/9495), Judge Huvelle's ruling gives hope that the Fed's enormous secret power to rig markets and bestow the most fantastic patronage on a parasitic financial elite can be brought to account eventually.

The judge's order to the Fed to produce documents for her private review can be found at GATA's Internet site here:

http://www.gata.org/files/GATAFedLawsuitCourtOrder-01-10-2011.pdf

Those who are skeptical of GATA's complaint that the Federal Reserve is part of an international gold-price rigging scheme should reflect on the meaning of the Fed's refusal to disclose all its gold-related records, records that include gold swap arrangements with foreign banks:

http://www.gata.org/node/8192

If the U.S. gold reserves are just sitting somewhere, inert, unencumbered, and unused for surreptitious market intervention, what's the problem with full disclosure?

Financial journalists unafraid of aggravating the world's financial powers should start putting gold-related questions to the Fed and other central banks and stop simply assuming that secrecy should be the normal order of things with central banks and gold.

And people everywhere who believe in free markets in the monetary metals and who have not already supported GATA financially can join our struggle here:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

This struggle could have been undertaken easily and likely more effectively by the World Gold Council, which aims to represent gold mining companies and gold investors. But the council's indifference to questions of surreptitious central bank intervention in the gold market has left the struggle to GATA. We need your help to pursue this struggle to victory for free markets, limited government, and a better, fairer world.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer

Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

[badge]

Over the past ten years, the letter was up an annualized 8.94%...

"the letter"?

I had no idea letters could be considered investments?

I posted a link to a Max Keiser interview with a chap from Bangkok last week, who similarly compared his letter/words to an actual investment benchmark like Dow Jones Ind. Index etc?

[Naam]

Over the past ten years, the letter was up an annualized 8.94%...

"the letter"? I had no idea letters could be considered investments?

for the record: i quoted a sentence. the "letter" did not grow in my garden

[mania]

USD above 80 & gold & silver sitting in nicely

Everyday the same play as it is beat down a little at the open only to bounce back.

[churchill]

I feel we may be in for some choppy prices - but who knows with the Euro ! but I do think there are too many USD bulls Euro Bears which may throw a spanner in the works -

However over the coming weeks I think demand from China and India will drive prices up /

"There was a huge pent-up demand from December, and again traders are generally keen to stock in the new year, but there has been a temporary supply shortage and we hope that it would get solved by next week," said a senior official with a foreign bank, which supplies precious metals to India.'

from http://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-54129020110113

and

Gold ETF holdings soar by 75% in India

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Gold-ETF-holdings-soar-by-75-in-India-35603-3-1.html

and

China's 1st gold-backed ETF roars into business

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2011-01/13/content_11846539.htm

Edited January 13, 2011 by churchill

[Naam]

I feel we may be in for some choppy prices - but who knows with the Euro ! but I do think there are too many USD bulls Euro Bears which may throw a spanner in the works -

However over the coming weeks I think demand from China and India will drive prices up /

"There was a huge pent-up demand from December, and again traders are generally keen to stock in the new year, but there has been a temporary supply shortage and we hope that it would get solved by next week," said a senior official with a foreign bank, which supplies precious metals to India.'

from http://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-54129020110113

and

Gold ETF holdings soar by 75% in India

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Gold-ETF-holdings-soar-by-75-in-India-35603-3-1.html

and

China's 1st gold-backed ETF roars into business

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2011-01/13/content_11846539.htm

the dollar bulls got hit on their nose yesterday and inspite of the weaker dollar gold and silver fell