Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[Jayman]

I can think of no more unpalatable job than sitting around like some scrooge on a keyboard trying to time the market and move in and out of hundreds of different investments, every day for days on end.

what for some people is palatable is an interesting hobby for others. only poor ignorant have-nots are talking about hundreds of different investments because a single investor cannot follow with indepth more than a dozen, half a dozen is more likely and the moves are limited to one or perhaps two in a month.

utterly unpalatable is when a Farang in Thailand is that poor that he can't afford a local maid, especially if he has children (i refer to one of your recent postings) but keeps on having a big mouth, rendering arbitrary judgments about how others conduct their life and spreading his prophecies what will happen in 30 years from now.

much more palatable is that some people (e.g. my [not so] humble self) can afford, based on their unpalatable job as a "keyboard scrooge" , to walk into a car showroom, shoot from the hip and buy a 43 year old car for a fistful million worthless fiat Baht and one ("slightly" newer car) for the Mrs for a slightly higher worthles fiat amount as it happened 10 or 12 days ago.

palatable is also when one can afford to hold nearly 60% of ones liquid capital in "worthless" fiat cash and physical gold earning not a single penny interest.

Ohh you are so rich and established... You will find yourself in good company in Pattaya.

[Naam]

Ohh you are so rich and established... You will find yourself in good company in Pattaya.

i expected more irrelevant statements, but not that kind of irrelevant cum dumb ones.

[Jayman]

Ohh you are so rich and established... You will find yourself in good company in Pattaya.

i expected more irrelevant statements, but not that kind of irrelevant cum dumb ones.

Just giving you more chances to increase your post count and show off what a great established man you are. You wanna tell us about how much you paid for all your properties as well?

[midas]

Hey BTW she's bullish on Facebook (whatever that is) so buyer beware!

and some are not so bullish

http://www.singledud...t/#.T7ZtkFJvC1I

bullish eh ?? right now $ 33.65 ?

[letitbe]

When I started buying gold it was $300 an oz. That wasn't all that long ago in my lifetime.

none of the resident gold lovers bought any gold "long ago" for which a rational explanation

exists. those who invested long ago the lion share or all of their liquid capital in gold either

starved to death or are thoroughly pissed off and ashamed to post in Thaivisa's gold thread.

Is that what you are so upset about Lt? You bought gold back in the 70's and feel burned when it urged and then fell? I have talked with many older folks that have bad memories of gold that I was too young to remember. They all seem to have a similar opinion that gold is not a good store of wealth.

I'm still very confused with why anyone that bought gold lower than today's prices would be upset to still own it. I guess I don't understand how your paper money is multiplying on it's own to keep up with the increase in gold prices throughout history. No one here has yet to explain that. They keep quoting inflation relative stats that afaik don't make your $100 bill turn into a $200 does it?

Maybe all the old-timers have it right. Maybe I am the blind sheep walking around living with a false sense of security in that I own gold. I can tell you that personally I feel very relieved that I own some physical gold/silver and that is much more so than holding paper money.

To each his own.....

Failing to prepare is preparing to fail.

John Robert Wooden

its simple from 1980 tp around 2000 gold was a terrible investment in real terms it went down around 80% or more put simply if your put 100.000 gbp in gold in 1980 by 2001 it was worth around 30,000 gbp if you'd put same 100,000 in shares it would be worth around 250,000 or so and if you'd just put it in a high interest account your 100,000 gbp would be worth around 200,000 gbp or soif like me youd put it into property youd have around 500,000 + gbp . Figures are approximate. Horses for courses and in last 11 years. Now ive sold the property and since 2008 converted to gold for at least next 3-10 years

[Naam]

its simple from 1980 tp around 2000 gold was a terrible investment in real terms it went down around 80% or more put simply if your put 100.000 gbp in gold in 1980 by 2001 it was worth around 30,000 gbp if you'd put same 100,000 in shares it would be worth around 250,000 or so and if you'd just put it in a high interest account your 100,000 gbp would be worth around 200,000 gbp or soif like me youd put it into property youd have around 500,000 + gbp . Figures are approximate. Horses for courses and in last 11 years. Now ive sold the property and since 2008 converted to gold for at least next 3-10 years

two comments:

-even at a moderate average 8.25% interest rate the £/$/DM 100k wouldn't be worth 200 but £/$/DM 450k interest reinvested, for doubling the 100k just 3.75% would have been sufficient.

-capital gains on property depended on country and kind of property. in Germany most luxury homes did not appreciate a single penny between 1980 and 2000 except in very few selected locations. and the appreciation for a "bread-and-butter" single-family home did not exceed 30% during these two decades.

[Naam]

Ohh you are so rich and established... You will find yourself in good company in Pattaya.

i expected more irrelevant statements, but not that kind of irrelevant cum dumb ones.

Just giving you more chances to increase your post count and show off what a great established man you are. You wanna tell us about how much you paid for all your properties as well?

i see no reason why to make you upset and cry even more little boy

[farang000999]

Naam do you see a dollar crisis in the future or do you think the US debt troubles are managable? obviously the Euro crisis where people are selling the euro and stocks means they need something liquid to put it into and what is that gonna be? The Mexican Peso and Thai baht?... however when we had a mini-showing of a dollar crisis in 2011 wrt the "debt ceiling" the price of gold did rise like a rocket as the stock market tumbled.

[Naam]

Naam do you see a dollar crisis in the future or do you think the US debt troubles are managable? obviously the Euro crisis where people are selling the euro and stocks means they need something liquid to put it into and what is that gonna be? The Mexican Peso and Thai baht?... however when we had a mini-showing of a dollar crisis in 2011 wrt the "debt ceiling" the price of gold did rise like a rocket as the stock market tumbled.

Farang, i am familiar with the "dollar crisis" since 1971, just out of university having started my first job, when Nixon pulled the "gold backing". in all these 41 years i had to listen ad nauseam "this time it's for real, things are completely different, the dollar will implode... any time from now!" in essence same ol' same ol' what you read on a daily basis in the two main Thaivisa financial threads.

as far as "manageable" is concerned we have to find a definition. definitely out of question is that the US will be able in future to service its debt the way as creditors are used too. but then, the US is in good company as there are dozens of countries which won't be able to service their debt according to the book and the old judicial latin expression "pacta sunt servanda!" (agreements must be kept) .

but i don't believe in any default and huge haircuts à la shitty countries such as Argentina, Ecuador and Greece, just to name a few (many more defaulted). my personal view is that the Bernankes (plural) will find a way to reduce their debt in a more "elegant" way by some sort of salami tactics (slice after slice).

the only way a layman (like me) sees, is to monetise/reduce debt by gradual inflation. i'm of course well aware that the majority of resident macroeconomic experts disagree with my view because "gradual" means years and years to come and go instead of the big bang they are hoping and praying for which will catapult their measly five-hundred or thousand ounces of gold to unseen heights to the level of Buffet, Gates, Ambani or Slim

EUR (currency) crisis? what crisis? look at long term exchange rates of the EUR or its main components vs. other major currencies. where's the crisis pray tell? then look at European stock markets which, Greece and the usual ClubMed suspects being an exception, did not fare worse than other markets.

the price of gold is driven by risk aversion and only time will tell whether the price and potential price increases are justified or not. in my view it is prudent to hold a certain percentage of one's net worth in gold. what percentage depends on the individual and his/her rational or irrational evaluation of the future.

[Lost in LOS]

Naam do you see a dollar crisis in the future or do you think the US debt troubles are managable? obviously the Euro crisis where people are selling the euro and stocks means they need something liquid to put it into and what is that gonna be? The Mexican Peso and Thai baht?... however when we had a mini-showing of a dollar crisis in 2011 wrt the "debt ceiling" the price of gold did rise like a rocket as the stock market tumbled.

Farang, i am familiar with the "dollar crisis" since 1971, just out of university having started my first job, when Nixon pulled the "gold backing". in all these 41 years i had to listen ad nauseam "this time it's for real, things are completely different, the dollar will implode... any time from now!" in essence same ol' same ol' what you read on a daily basis in the two main Thaivisa financial threads.

as far as "manageable" is concerned we have to find a definition. definitely out of question is that the US will be able in future to service its debt the way as creditors are used too. but then, the US is in good company as there are dozens of countries which won't be able to service their debt according to the book and the old judicial latin expression "pacta sunt servanda!" (agreements must be kept) .

but i don't believe in any default and huge haircuts à la shitty countries such as Argentina, Ecuador and Greece, just to name a few (many more defaulted). my personal view is that the Bernankes (plural) will find a way to reduce their debt in a more "elegant" way by some sort of salami tactics (slice after slice).

the only way a layman (like me) sees, is to monetise/reduce debt by gradual inflation. i'm of course well aware that the majority of resident macroeconomic experts disagree with my view because "gradual" means years and years to come and go instead of the big bang they are hoping and praying for which will catapult their measly five-hundred or thousand ounces of gold to unseen heights to the level of Buffet, Gates, Ambani or Slim

EUR (currency) crisis? what crisis? look at long term exchange rates of the EUR or its main components vs. other major currencies. where's the crisis pray tell? then look at European stock markets which, Greece and the usual ClubMed suspects being an exception, did not fare worse than other markets.

the price of gold is driven by risk aversion and only time will tell whether the price and potential price increases are justified or not. in my view it is prudent to hold a certain percentage of one's net worth in gold. what percentage depends on the individual and his/her rational or irrational evaluation of the future.

I think the future is in the tank, with not a lot of fixes available, what percentage should I hold ?

[cdmtdm]

Naam do you see a dollar crisis in the future or do you think the US debt troubles are managable? obviously the Euro crisis where people are selling the euro and stocks means they need something liquid to put it into and what is that gonna be? The Mexican Peso and Thai baht?... however when we had a mini-showing of a dollar crisis in 2011 wrt the "debt ceiling" the price of gold did rise like a rocket as the stock market tumbled.

Farang, i am familiar with the "dollar crisis" since 1971, just out of university having started my first job, when Nixon pulled the "gold backing". in all these 41 years i had to listen ad nauseam "this time it's for real, things are completely different, the dollar will implode... any time from now!" in essence same ol' same ol' what you read on a daily basis in the two main Thaivisa financial threads.

as far as "manageable" is concerned we have to find a definition. definitely out of question is that the US will be able in future to service its debt the way as creditors are used too. but then, the US is in good company as there are dozens of countries which won't be able to service their debt according to the book and the old judicial latin expression "pacta sunt servanda!" (agreements must be kept) .

but i don't believe in any default and huge haircuts à la shitty countries such as Argentina, Ecuador and Greece, just to name a few (many more defaulted). my personal view is that the Bernankes (plural) will find a way to reduce their debt in a more "elegant" way by some sort of salami tactics (slice after slice).

the only way a layman (like me) sees, is to monetise/reduce debt by gradual inflation. i'm of course well aware that the majority of resident macroeconomic experts disagree with my view because "gradual" means years and years to come and go instead of the big bang they are hoping and praying for which will catapult their measly five-hundred or thousand ounces of gold to unseen heights to the level of Buffet, Gates, Ambani or Slim

EUR (currency) crisis? what crisis? look at long term exchange rates of the EUR or its main components vs. other major currencies. where's the crisis pray tell? then look at European stock markets which, Greece and the usual ClubMed suspects being an exception, did not fare worse than other markets.

the price of gold is driven by risk aversion and only time will tell whether the price and potential price increases are justified or not. in my view it is prudent to hold a certain percentage of one's net worth in gold. what percentage depends on the individual and his/her rational or irrational evaluation of the future.

thanks great post !! (schultz)

[Naam]

thanks great post !! (schultz)

some resident ex-birds might disagree with your view

[12DrinkMore]

thanks great post !! (schultz)

some resident ex-birds might disagree with your view

Monetising the governments' deficits is the way it will be for the public sector by expanding the central banks' balance sheets. There will probably be a slice of salami flavoured QE every year to keep things running.

Inflating the debts away only works if

1. wages are rising (much) faster than inflation. I don't think there is a single western country where this is the case. Although I believe Switzerland is experiencing CPI deflation (?)

2. people are not taking out even more debt

3. interest rates are reduced and people are paying off the debt faster with the extra disposable income. Which they are not, as they need it to survive.

As you say, it is going to be years, if indeed, ever before the debt is at a level where discretionary spending can start to cause a few of those very elusive green shoots to appear in the barren economies.....

[Naam]

1. wages are rising (much) faster than inflation. I don't think there is a single western country where this is the case. Although I believe Switzerland is experiencing CPI deflation (?)

2. people are not taking out even more debt

3. interest rates are reduced and people are paying off the debt faster with the extra disposable income. Which they are not, as they need it to survive.

no offence meant "12" but all three comments look "more than 12" to me. more on this topic tomorrow because dinner was served 3 minutes ago.

[12DrinkMore]

1. wages are rising (much) faster than inflation. I don't think there is a single western country where this is the case. Although I believe Switzerland is experiencing CPI deflation (?)

2. people are not taking out even more debt

3. interest rates are reduced and people are paying off the debt faster with the extra disposable income. Which they are not, as they need it to survive.

no offence meant "12" but all three comments look "more than 12" to me. more on this topic tomorrow because dinner was served 3 minutes ago.

'en guete!

[flying]

Cyclist calling June 12th as a major turning date. That time for him is to exit the markets.

This does not mean exit physical as he does not do that.

The recent gold rally may last till end of month...but judging by today I am not sure & figure he isn't either

since he said "may last"

Has also reiterated Silver is done till next year ( Feb 2013 )

GSR will seek 60/1

All in all he sees a real panic in the markets coming

Maybe one more run up on lesser volume this year

But does state by Jan 21 2013 another low with the S&P

going through the neckline of 1130. Also states where it is going to land

could very well be 700

Before that down in flash crash mode till Sept with a flash rally lasting into November

before the big one coming down in the last two months of 2012 to complete its 15.5 month cycle.

Reiterates be prepared for what is to come.

Disclaimer.....as always just passing on what I read. Not a recommend to buy or sell anything

Edited May 22, 2012 by flying

[Jayman]

I would say the recent gold rally has ended as we have broken back through and held below the 61.8% fibo from this latest rally. We are looking to retest the recent may 16 low in the 1526 area.

[yoshiwara]

Gold tanking 2.5% today. But hey, keep spinning.

The $US the place of safety (and German Bonds)

[binjalin]

Gold tanking 2.5% today. But hey, keep spinning.

The $US the place of safety (and German Bonds)

$US place of safety 555 that is funny

[midas]

Gold tanking 2.5% today. But hey, keep spinning.

The $US the place of safety (and German Bonds)

$US place of safety 555 that is funny

he probably thought Fadebook was a good thing as well

[Naam]

Gold tanking 2.5% today. But hey, keep spinning.

The $US the place of safety (and German Bonds)

$US place of safety 555 that is funny

some people might think that's funny, namely those who are too lazy doing

their homework (neither watching the markets nor the exchange rates) but

believe the rumours spread by the usual gloom&doomers and relevant websites.

for the record:

-except for JP¥ USD has appreciated vs. all currencies as well as precious metals.

-the only thing i don't agree with Yoshiwara's posting is his spelling of "Bunds"

and $US and the fact that German Bunds are denominated in €UR.

edited for addendum: "thanks for not listening"

Edited May 24, 2012 by Naam

[churchill]

Gold tanking 2.5% today. But hey, keep spinning.

The $US the place of safety (and German Bonds)

$US place of safety 555 that is funny

some people might think that's funny, namely those who are too lazy doing

their homework (neither watching the markets nor the exchange rates) but

believe the rumours spread by the usual gloom&doomers and relevant websites.

for the record:

-except for JP¥ USD has appreciated vs. all currencies as well as precious metals.

-the only thing i don't agree with Yoshiwara's posting is his spelling of "Bunds"

and $US and the fact that German Bunds are denominated in €UR.

edited for addendum: "thanks for not listening"

So you agree with the statement that 'Gold tanking 2.5% today' ....

Did you see GDX yesterday .. up around 4% even as gold stayed around even and with a stronger $

The miners are due a bounce and many say they lead the price ..

Be in or out .. up to you ..I would rather own gold than $ .... but be confident .. the politicians have a road map ....but still no clue

A Machiavellian Scheme for a United States of Europe?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47547082?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Edited May 24, 2012 by churchill

[Naam]

So you agree with the statement that 'Gold tanking 2.5% today' ....

i did not refer to the gold price which is completely irrelevant to me except in the unlikely event that the Mrs needs our gold to pay for daily necessities.

[Naam]

The miners are due a bounce and many say they lead the price...

i'm due for an ECG and (not many) but my wife says since days "go and see your cardiologist or else!"

[Naam]

Did you see GDX yesterday...

no i did not Churchill and admit that i have no idea who or what GDX is.

[churchill]

So you agree with the statement that 'Gold tanking 2.5% today' ....

i did not refer to the gold price which is completely irrelevant to me except in the unlikely event that the Mrs needs our gold to pay for daily necessities.

'-the only thing i don't agree with Yoshiwara's posting is his spelling of "Bunds"'

ie you agree with the rest of it ....

[churchill]

The miners are due a bounce and many say they lead the price...

i'm due for an ECG and (not many) but my wife says since days "go and see your cardiologist or else!"

[churchill]

Did you see GDX yesterday...

no i did not Churchill and admit that i have no idea who or what GDX is.

http://www.google.co...&q=NYSEARCA:GDX

44.44

+1.90 (4.47%)

Edited May 24, 2012 by churchill

[Naam]

Did you see GDX yesterday...

no i did not Churchill and admit that i have no idea who or what GDX is.

http://www.google.co...&q=NYSEARCA:GDX

44.44

+1.90 (4.47%)

did i forget to mention that i'm not interested who or what GDX is?

[Naam]

So you agree with the statement that 'Gold tanking 2.5% today' ....

i did not refer to the gold price which is completely irrelevant to me except in the unlikely event that the Mrs needs our gold to pay for daily necessities.

'-the only thing i don't agree with Yoshiwara's posting is his spelling of "Bunds"'

ie you agree with the rest of it ....

splitting hairs is boring Churchill. i mentioned already that i did not refer to any gold price and gave a reason.