Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[cloudhopper]

I

I did not intend to say that. I mean that the prospect of uncontrollable inflation in energy and food would be a powerful constraint to the central bank's ability to monetize/inflate away the debt destruction and they will therefore be unsuccessful in stopping a deflationary burst. IMO. If they do try then that's why I have PM.

Why don't you want debt to reduce via monetization/inflation?

You prefer a position it's defaulted on and banks and governments systemically collapse (as we are seeing in some places)?

Or would you prefer, like me, for the wealth of the whole populace who has or earns money to be reduced a little (which is after all a sort of taxation, and payback for previous excess)?

Perhaps your Doomsday preference would increase your wealth, as you're lucky enough to have the wealth to own PMs.

I doubt the 25% unemployed in Spain or Greece would agree with you as they beg in the streets.

They might justifiably say "off with Cloudhopper's head".

It's not about what I want it's about what is likely to happen. There is no doubt that a slow grinding inflation/devaluation is what everyone wants - I just don't think that the CBs will be able to pull it off for the reasons I stated plus reasons demand destruction and decreasing ROEI in petroleum. And so as I have said a deflationary outcome is far more likely IMO and in that event the nominal price of gold will fall yet retain it's value as a store of capital (and as it will in the event of a politically-driven currency crisis as well).

[mania]

cheeryble your ps did make me laugh thanks

Yes I see what your saying but as you say

However being in the position of big public and private debt surely it's better to keep the engine running even a slow speed than letting it seize up which has awful consequences, most of all for those who least deserve it. Systemic collapses have many severe repercussions.

I really think that is what could be accomplished by doing what needs doing.

The severe collapse which can eventually come will not be given a choice.

That is a true seizure

But acting on a real repair now could do as you said & allow a slow controlled turn.

Anyway we all hope for the best. I just wish I saw something actually being done in the right direction.

As it is now they still kick the can & set up little trip wires/deadlines of things that supposedly will automatically be cut if they themselves

do not find cuts.

They have a budget they know what it is. They know they continue to overspend as if there is no tomorrow.

They are 100's of times worse than any addict.

[Naam]

I

I did not intend to say that. I mean that the prospect of uncontrollable inflation in energy and food would be a powerful constraint to the central bank's ability to monetize/inflate away the debt destruction and they will therefore be unsuccessful in stopping a deflationary burst. IMO. If they do try then that's why I have PM.

Why don't you want debt to reduce via monetization/inflation?

You prefer a position it's defaulted on and banks and governments systemically collapse (as we are seeing in some places)?

Or would you prefer, like me, for the wealth of the whole populace who has or earns money to be reduced a little (which is after all a sort of taxation, and payback for previous excess)?

Perhaps your Doomsday preference would increase your wealth, as you're lucky enough to have the wealth to own PMs.

I doubt the 25% unemployed in Spain or Greece would agree with you as they beg in the streets.

They might justifiably say "off with Cloudhopper's head".

there... there... Cloudhopper has no plans (that i know of) holidaying in Spain or Greece. i guess he's quite safe somewhere up north

would you prefer, like me, for the wealth of the whole populace who has or earns money to be reduced a little (which is after all a sort of taxation, and payback for previous excess)?

"reduced a little" might apply to a minority of well-off people. however i'm afraid that the "wider" populace will suffer more than a little. not necessarily by means of higher taxes but by severe reduction of social and health services as well as welfare and unemployment compensation.

[cloudhopper]

"reduced a little" might apply to a minority of well-off people. however i'm afraid that the "wider" populace will suffer more than a little. not necessarily by means of higher taxes but by severe reduction of social and health services as well as welfare and unemployment compensation.

Not to mention salaries and pensions but definitely including higher taxes. Sounds like a doomer deflationary scenario to me. Isn't that already happening now in Greece?

[Naam]

Raoul Pal "So what is coming?"

[Naam]

"reduced a little" might apply to a minority of well-off people. however i'm afraid that the "wider" populace will suffer more than a little. not necessarily by means of higher taxes but by severe reduction of social and health services as well as welfare and unemployment compensation.

Not to mention salaries and pensions but definitely including higher taxes. Sounds like a doomer deflationary scenario to me. Isn't that already happening now in Greece?

it is indeed happening in Greece. but one has to consider what happened before, i.e. what kind of salaries were paid, at what age a Greek citizen was able to retire, that tax evasion of an unbelievable scale was a favourite pastime, etc., etc., etc.

Spain is in a different situation. for a decade the country experienced a property boom. each and everybody focussed on building respectively buying property, without capital, financed 100% (and more) because "property could only go up, up and UP" based on 4% mortgages denominated in €URo instead of 16-18% denominated in Pesetas. the millions of nowadays jobless were not caused by uncompetitive industries closing down but by the craze that before the bubble burst 45% of Spain's GDP was a fiction caused by the afore-mentioned.

[Naam]

Midas' pal Raoul Pal "So what is coming?"

China Default

[cloudhopper]

Midas' pal Raoul Pal "So what is coming?"

China Default

Not internationally but they might be looking at a high level of internal default though...empty cities and shopping malls owned by banks and municipalitis....lots of private debt destruction awaits as businesses and real estate speculations fail. They won't keep importing raw materials from Oz et al at previous levels either...

[Naam]

Midas' pal Raoul Pal "So what is coming?"

China Default

Not internationally but they might be looking at a high level of internal default though...empty cities and shopping malls owned by banks and municipalitis....lots of private debt destruction awaits as businesses and real estate speculations fail. They won't keep importing raw materials from Oz et al at previous levels either...

The Right Honourable Guru Pal mentions expressis verbis "sovereign defaults" in his prophecy. empty shopping malls and less coal or iron ore from Oz does not constitute a sovereign default!

[Naam]

the usual undefined one size fits all derivative rubbish to feed dummies and ignorants, discussed and explained ad nauseam in countless financial forums since Lehman 2008. not to mention how often this derivative rubbish was posted in one-liners in the "gold" and "financial crisis" threads by people who have no idea that there are thousands of different kinds of derivatives and the majority are well justified day-to-day / bread-and-butter business transactions.

[Naam]

Midas' Pal December 2010 - "after QE = dramatic Dollar upturn"

suggestions for apologists to comment:

-he didn't say vs. which currency.

-perhaps he meant vs. Zimbabwe Dollar?

-Bernanke did not QE as he should have.

-so what? we all make small mistakes.

-i think the Dollar buys more cowrie shells today.

-yeah, and one gets more shrink heads in Papua New Guinea!

-Thai racism caused the bar fines in Walking Street to be more expensive in Dollars.

-who cares what obnoxious Naam says?

-a well renowned guru who worked for Goldman Sucks can't be wrong.

-Naam's wife is ugly i've heard.

[midas]

this is like " Benghazigate " ... it wont go away

Calls for Germany to repatriate its 1,536 tons of gold reserves held at the NY Fed are intensifying as Der Spiegel reports the Federal Reserve has refused to allow German inspectors to even view the country’s massive gold reserves “in the interest of security and of the control process“.

http://www.spiegel.d...e-a-864068.html

Edited November 9, 2012 by midas

[midas]

Midas' pal Raoul Pal "So what is coming?"

China Default

Not internationally but they might be looking at a high level of internal default though...empty cities and shopping malls owned by banks and municipalitis....lots of private debt destruction awaits as businesses and real estate speculations fail. They won't keep importing raw materials from Oz et al at previous levels either...

Are Chinese Banks Hiding “The Mother of All Debt Bombs”?

From the beginning of 2009 to the end of June this year, Chinese banks have issued roughly 35 trillion yuan ($5.4 trillion) in new loans, equal to 73 percent of China's GDP in 2011. About two-thirds of these loans were made in 2009 and 2010, as part of Beijing's stimulus package. Unlike deficit-financed stimulus packages in the West, China's colossal stimulus package of 2009 was funded mainly by bank credit (at least 60 percent, to be exact), not government borrowing.

http://thediplomat.com/2012/09/10/are-chinese-banks-hiding-the-mother-of-all-debt-bombs/

[farang000999]

looks like exact repeat of aug 11 debt ceiling stuff...

stocks down, gold up.

[churchill]

Whilst preaching to others to cut they themselves want increase not only for next and the next year but also to cover shortfalls for this year

'THE British Government this afternoon fired a fresh broadside at Brussels over "breathtaking" demands for a bigger EU budget.

David Cameron is already on the warpath over pressure for an inflation-busting 11% increase in the EU's 2014-2020 financial programme - threatening a veto at a summit in a fortnight unless there is at least a spending freeze, if not cuts.

Today, the target was the 2013 budget, with the Commission demanding a 6.8% increase on this year's €129 billion total.

Eurocrats also want an extra €9 billion on the 2012 budget because of insufficient funds to cover all policy commitments.'

http://www.independent.ie/business/european/eu-budget-talks-break-down-after-british-government-slam-breathtaking-demands-for-increase-3289895.html

and not forgetting IMF joke Lagarde .. http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/11/imf-hypocrites-urge-permanent-us-can.html

A good interview from an angry Celente

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2012/11/10_Gerald_Celente.html

[churchill]

ERDOĞAN SUGGESTS SHIFT FROM DOLLAR TO GOLD

'Stating that although IMF assistance may appear to be a prescription for some nations, in fact quite the opposite, the fund has often caused serious problems for countries in trouble, Erdoğan asks why it is that the fund uses dollars instead of gold.

Expressing that he doesn't feel it is right for the IMF to act according to one nation's currency, Erdoğan states, "The IMF extends aid on a who, where, how and on what conditions bases. For example, if the IMF is under the influence of any single currency then what, are they going rule the world based on the exchange rates of that particular currency?

Why do we not switch then to a monetary unit such as gold, which is at the very least an international constant and indicator which has maintained its honor throughout history. This is something to think about."

http://english.sabah...-dollar-to-gold

Edited November 10, 2012 by churchill

[midas]

Whilst preaching to others to cut they themselves want increase not only for next and the next year but also to cover shortfalls for this year

'THE British Government this afternoon fired a fresh broadside at Brussels over "breathtaking" demands for a bigger EU budget.

David Cameron is already on the warpath over pressure for an inflation-busting 11% increase in the EU's 2014-2020 financial programme - threatening a veto at a summit in a fortnight unless there is at least a spending freeze, if not cuts.

Today, the target was the 2013 budget, with the Commission demanding a 6.8% increase on this year's €129 billion total.

Eurocrats also want an extra €9 billion on the 2012 budget because of insufficient funds to cover all policy commitments.'

http://www.independe...se-3289895.html

and not forgetting IMF joke Lagarde .. http://globaleconomi...ent-us-can.html

A good interview from an angry Celente

http://www.kingworld...ld_Celente.html

shake the money tree again...... disgusting

The regional airports in Spain that are now just ghost towns and were only built so that Spain could use its funding from Brussels in time

http://www.eurotopic...p-wasting-money

Edited November 10, 2012 by midas

[Naam]

ERDOĞAN SUGGESTS SHIFT FROM DOLLAR TO GOLD

'Stating that although IMF assistance may appear to be a prescription for some nations, in fact quite the opposite, the fund has often caused serious problems for countries in trouble, Erdoğan asks why it is that the fund uses dollars instead of gold.

Expressing that he doesn't feel it is right for the IMF to act according to one nation's currency, Erdoğan states, "The IMF extends aid on a who, where, how and on what conditions bases. For example, if the IMF is under the influence of any single currency then what, are they going rule the world based on the exchange rates of that particular currency?

Why do we not switch then to a monetary unit such as gold, which is at the very least an international constant and indicator which has maintained its honor throughout history. This is something to think about."

http://english.sabah...-dollar-to-gold

Erdoğan has valid reasons for his demand because Turkey has become the major clearing agent for Iran's barter trade "we accept gold for crude and pay with gold for imports" since Iran's banks were virtually cut off from international banking.

http://www.google.co...ype=&as_rights=

[midas]

The massive head and shoulders dome top reversal that has been developing on the DJIA is complete. This pattern has been evident for years and has taken a lot longer to play out than any of us thought possible. At first they jacked up stock prices to manage perceptions and create a wealth effect. That worked for a while. Then the data started to go rogue a few months ago and they responded by announcing QEndless to maintain equity levitation so Barack and Bernanke could hold onto their jobs.

.

http://chartistfrien...nation-and.html

Edited November 11, 2012 by midas

[churchill]

The massive head and shoulders dome top reversal that has been developing on the DJIA is complete. This pattern has been evident for years and has taken a lot longer to play out than any of us thought possible. At first they jacked up stock prices to manage perceptions and create a wealth effect. That worked for a while. Then the data started to go rogue a few months ago and they responded by announcing QEndless to maintain equity levitation so Barack and Bernanke could hold onto their jobs.

.

http://chartistfrien...nation-and.html

Charts are crap ....... anyone can draw lines .. buy and demand means Breakout ....

[midas]

The massive head and shoulders dome top reversal that has been developing on the DJIA is complete. This pattern has been evident for years and has taken a lot longer to play out than any of us thought possible. At first they jacked up stock prices to manage perceptions and create a wealth effect. That worked for a while. Then the data started to go rogue a few months ago and they responded by announcing QEndless to maintain equity levitation so Barack and Bernanke could hold onto their jobs.

.

http://chartistfrien...nation-and.html

Charts are crap ....... anyone can draw lines .. buy and demand means Breakout ....

but it is somewhat intriguing when it also coincides with the views of fundamentalists

http://spectator.org...crash-of-2013/1

Edited November 11, 2012 by midas

[Jayman]

I tend to agree with the above and think it will pull gold down with it. In the long run I still see gold regaining it's power and then some but I do see a crash a coming and little will come out unscathed.

[Naam]

Charts are crap ....... anyone can draw lines .. buy and demand means Breakout ....

BINGO!

[Khun Jean]

Paper gold will be sold when a downturn hits the stockmarket. It is needed for the margin calls.

Happened many times before, will happen again.

After that anything can happen. The Bernanke can go to 20% interest rate plummeting gold even more. Or he can say rates will remain around zero and announce QE5 then gold will pick up again.

It is just one mans (FED) announcement that causes these distortions.

[churchill]

China could cause a few ....

Gold: The next Strategic Commodity?

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/gold-the-next-strategic-commodity-51317-3-51318.html

[Naam]

Gold could well become a strategic asset in the coming years; not according some nondescript analyst but as Sun Zhaoxue wants it, the head of China National Gold Corporation

it goes without saying that the head of a Gold mining company has only altruistic motives when he says "increasing the gold reserve should be one of the key strategies of China"

other miners, e.g. the industry leader in production and reserves Barrick Gold, do not share Comrade Sun's optimistic views:

Wall Street Journal August 12, 2012

LONDON—Barrick Gold Corp. said it is in talks with China National Gold Group to sell a big chunk of its African assets to this Chinese miner in a deal that analysts say could fetch as much as about £2.5 billion ($3.9 billion)—the latest move by the world's largest gold miner to boost shareholder value.

With stock prices languishing, global gold miners have been under pressure from shareholders to return capital and focus on projects with higher returns. That is especially the case at Barrick, which in June replaced Chief Executive Aaron Regent with its longtime chief financial officer, Jamie Sokalsky, citing poor share-price performance.

[Naam]

note to Churchill "a few minutes research might save hours of embarrassment."

[mccw]

China could cause a few ....

Gold: The next Strategic Commodity?

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/gold-the-next-strategic-commodity-51317-3-51318.html

If they had 1000 tons in 09 then they should be up to 5-8-10,000 by now no problem. Encouraging citizen gold ownership as well. Hmm , points to a plan for post western collapse, when we no longer buying their stuff, or over expensive recourses; so they could announce they have 10,000 tons or whatever and backing RMBI and gold explodes; gold holding populations of east wealth suddenly huge and drives economic expansions leaving the west behind to their own fiat debt mess. Why else would they be bothered with this useless barbaric yellow shiny stuff? Why else encourage gold holding population rather than a government bond hold one like Japan?

[Khun Jean]

As The Bernanke says in all his wisdom: "Tradition".

[Naam]

China could cause a few ....

Gold: The next Strategic Commodity?

http://www.commodity...17-3-51318.html

If they had 1000 tons in 09 then they should be up to 5-8-10,000 by now no problem. Encouraging citizen gold ownership as well. Hmm , points to a plan for post western collapse, when we no longer buying their stuff, or over expensive recourses; so they could announce they have 10,000 tons or whatever and backing RMBI and gold explodes; gold holding populations of east wealth suddenly huge and drives economic expansions leaving the west behind to their own fiat debt mess. Why else would they be bothered with this useless barbaric yellow shiny stuff? Why else encourage gold holding population rather than a government bond hold one like Japan?

note to mccw: "my note to Churchill applies to you too."

here's why:

-in case of a western collapse no amount of gold holdings will save export oriented China from collapsing,

-no amount of gold holdings can drive economic expansions,

-the advice Chinese citizens received a couple of years ago to put savings into gold and silver was to reduce their gambling in shares which drove the Chinese stock market in 2009/2010 and then collapsed causing a huge number of average citizens to lose their life savings.