clinique Posted October 4, 2009 Share Posted October 4, 2009 to answer the quesion posted, in todays markets the trend is up.. due to economic conditions, investors looking for safe havens, central banks buying, and producers slow to catch up to demand. just take a look at the graphs on www.goldprice .org or the World Gold Council website, which countries are buying / selling reserves etc... wonder where all the lost millions / billions from Wall Street went ..hum !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cloudhopper Posted October 4, 2009 Share Posted October 4, 2009 Interesting viewpoint on gold during deflation- http://blogs.reuters.com/rolfe-winkler/200...-is-the-threat/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flying Posted October 4, 2009 Share Posted October 4, 2009 Interesting viewpoint on gold during deflation-http://blogs.reuters.com/rolfe-winkler/200...-is-the-threat/ Good article & reflects my feelings. I have not gone into PM's thinking hyper inflation is around the corner. But I do see devaluation of the dollar as a forgone conclusion. Also it is my personal version of revolt now I do not have to think about it I acted on it. I can say I put my fiat where my mouth is Right now, the American economy is worth less than the value implied by the market value of its obligations. How much less, no one knows. But gold bugs will tell you, privately, that this is why they are buyers. Might as well stock up, they say, before gold becomes a controlled substance. The bolded section is why I haven’t touched stocks in two years and don’t plan to for some time: The U.S. economy is underwater. The value of our obligations is greater than the value of our assets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flying Posted October 4, 2009 Share Posted October 4, 2009 (edited) those who bought gold in 1980, slowly sold their "preserved wealth" over the years with huge losses and starved to death eighteen years later are now happily lying in their graves as the thought "good as gold" gives them eternal peace. 23% up since my purchase last year September........ Very bad investment, my tomatoes grow at a much higher rate... = irrelevant statement (as most of the times). I do not agree.....Why is it irrelevant? He is up 23% & that is a fact. Why does every purchase of Gold need to be compared to some unfortunate who bought in 1980? Is the whole stock market useless too? Is anyone who has made money on the NASDAQ irrelevant because some bought at the crash of the Tech bubble? Some of those folks will never ever be made whole. Like anything there will be winners & losers. Using the rear view mirror to pick out one spot in time & then call anyone who invests in the same a poor judge is silly IMHO 23% is not too shabby given the past year. Even if we look back 6 years while not perhaps the biggest gainer available it is not so terrible in any currency. PS: in hindsight Silver was the play as I am up similar to Alex in Gold but up 33%in Silver Edited October 4, 2009 by flying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted October 4, 2009 Share Posted October 4, 2009 those who bought gold in 1980, slowly sold their "preserved wealth" over the years with huge losses and starved to death eighteen years later are now happily lying in their graves as the thought "good as gold" gives them eternal peace. 23% up since my purchase last year September........ Very bad investment, my tomatoes grow at a much higher rate... = irrelevant statement (as most of the times). I do not agree.....Why is it irrelevant? He is up 23% & that is a fact. your disagreement does not make "last year" with reference to "1980 and the subsequent 18 years" relevant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flying Posted October 4, 2009 Share Posted October 4, 2009 your disagreement does not make "last year" with reference to "1980 and the subsequent 18 years" relevant But is is relevant to my other comment..... 1980 is not the yardstick Why does every purchase of Gold need to be compared to some unfortunate who bought in 1980? Is the whole stock market useless too? Is anyone who has made money on the NASDAQ irrelevant because some bought at the crash of the Tech bubble? Some of those folks will never ever be made whole. Like anything there will be winners & losers. Using the rear view mirror to pick out one spot in time & then call anyone who invests in the same a poor judge is silly IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted October 5, 2009 Share Posted October 5, 2009 your disagreement does not make "last year" with reference to "1980 and the subsequent 18 years" relevant But is is relevant to my other comment..... 1980 is not the yardstick Why does every purchase of Gold need to be compared to some unfortunate who bought in 1980? Is the whole stock market useless too? Is anyone who has made money on the NASDAQ irrelevant because some bought at the crash of the Tech bubble? Some of those folks will never ever be made whole. Like anything there will be winners & losers. Using the rear view mirror to pick out one spot in time & then call anyone who invests in the same a poor judge is silly IMHO it's not 1980 only, take 1977 with a price below $100, compare it with today's $1,000 and weep. NO <deleted> PROFIT compared to other investments. if somebody claims "gold preserves wealth" than he/she is lacking the basic knowledge how to calculate yields. that notwithstanding the fact that all TV-goldbugs have bought gold when its price was much lower. and of course nobody bought in march 2008 when the price was $1,030 and the forecast HERE ON TV was "$1,500/ounce in march 2009!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flying Posted October 5, 2009 Share Posted October 5, 2009 (edited) it's not 1980 only, take 1977 with a price below $100, compare it with today's $1,000 and weep. NO <deleted> PROFIT compared to other investments. Who is to say the person who bought as you say in 77 under $100 did not sell in 80 at $840? But Yes we can pinpoint times in many things & say the same...what does it matter to someone who is doing well in it? I can point at the JDSU chart below & say I know folks who lost over 500k in that one alone. Does it affect me & my current holdings? No.. Yes your example of some nut who held through those down times has not great profit but he has something doesn't he...The same cannot be said for the stock holders of the tech bubble. Not that I can see. Still remember I have said many times that I am not the one calling it a investment nor have I ever claimed a high future price. I have my reasons for what I have & my goals may not be the same as others. But if it was a matter of pointing out poor investments I could go on all day too. I knew folks that literally went bust on such instruments. So all I am saying is the same as I said long ago. There are winners & losers in all investments/gambles/risks. If it were not for the one you could not have the other. Some folks have made good money on PM's Edited October 5, 2009 by flying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
churchill Posted October 5, 2009 Author Share Posted October 5, 2009 Gold vs. Paper Money http://www.mmnews.de/index.php/20091004390...oney.html#_edn2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cloudhopper Posted October 5, 2009 Share Posted October 5, 2009 Interesting article that illustrates why physical capital in its many forms can be useful in uncertain times. My theory differs from the author only in that IMO we have already had the inflation phase, largely in the shadow economy of derivatives, SIVs etc. but leaking out into RE, stock and bond bubbles, and that the deflationary burst of same is already underway and at 10X will overwhelm anything any government can counteract in the daylight economy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted October 5, 2009 Share Posted October 5, 2009 it's not 1980 only, take 1977 with a price below $100, compare it with today's $1,000 and weep. NO <deleted> PROFIT compared to other investments. Who is to say the person who bought as you say in 77 under $100 did not sell in 80 at $840? But Yes we can pinpoint times in many things & say the same...what does it matter to someone who is doing well in it? I can point at the JDSU chart below & say I know folks who lost over 500k in that one alone. Does it affect me & my current holdings? No.. Yes your example of some nut who held through those down times has not great profit but he has something doesn't he...The same cannot be said for the stock holders of the tech bubble. Not that I can see. Still remember I have said many times that I am not the one calling it a investment nor have I ever claimed a high future price. I have my reasons for what I have & my goals may not be the same as others. But if it was a matter of pointing out poor investments I could go on all day too. I knew folks that literally went bust on such instruments. So all I am saying is the same as I said long ago. There are winners & losers in all investments/gambles/risks. If it were not for the one you could not have the other. Some folks have made good money on PM's -goldbugs never sell, they buy gold to "preserve wealth". -nobody referred to you. -irrelevant statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted October 5, 2009 Share Posted October 5, 2009 Interesting article that illustrates why physical capital in its many forms can be useful in uncertain times. My theory differs from the author only in that IMO we have already had the inflation phase, largely in the shadow economy of derivatives, SIVs etc. but leaking out into RE, stock and bond bubbles, and that the deflationary burst of same is already underway and at 10X will overwhelm anything any government can counteract in the daylight economy. i don't understand your reasoning at all CH. why "physical capital" if a "deflationary burst" is underway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
churchill Posted October 5, 2009 Author Share Posted October 5, 2009 They seem to be way out . Are they stupid or do they know something nobody else does ? $800/OZ GOLD IN 2010 S&P raises short-term price outlook for gold, copper, zinc Higher spot prices and future prices have prompted S&P to raise its short-term price outlook for gold, copper, aluminum and zinc. However, S&P is still pessimistic about nickel prices. http://www.mineweb.co.za/mineweb/view/mine...9&sn=Detail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cloudhopper Posted October 5, 2009 Share Posted October 5, 2009 Interesting article that illustrates why physical capital in its many forms can be useful in uncertain times. My theory differs from the author only in that IMO we have already had the inflation phase, largely in the shadow economy of derivatives, SIVs etc. but leaking out into RE, stock and bond bubbles, and that the deflationary burst of same is already underway and at 10X will overwhelm anything any government can counteract in the daylight economy. i don't understand your reasoning at all CH. why "physical capital" if a "deflationary burst" is underway? In the early phase a slow rate of deflation will benefit holders of cash and bonds. But if it accelerates to the point where the financial system breaks down, as it came very close to doing once already, the electromagnetic bits that represent cash in one's account somewhere may rather suddenly not be redeemable for the local currency anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lannarebirth Posted October 5, 2009 Share Posted October 5, 2009 Interesting article that illustrates why physical capital in its many forms can be useful in uncertain times. My theory differs from the author only in that IMO we have already had the inflation phase, largely in the shadow economy of derivatives, SIVs etc. but leaking out into RE, stock and bond bubbles, and that the deflationary burst of same is already underway and at 10X will overwhelm anything any government can counteract in the daylight economy. i don't understand your reasoning at all CH. why "physical capital" if a "deflationary burst" is underway? In the early phase a slow rate of deflation will benefit holders of cash and bonds. But if it accelerates to the point where the financial system breaks down, as it came very close to doing once already, the electromagnetic bits that represent cash in one's account somewhere may rather suddenly not be redeemable for the local currency anymore. I'm guessing that would make for an angry mood. Best to befriend your neighbors now I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokal Posted October 5, 2009 Share Posted October 5, 2009 why do you spoil a nice goldbug wishful thinking fairy tale with ugly facts LRB? China is mining nowadays 300 tons of gold a year and production is steadily increasing. it is a well known fact that the chinese government has no business sense and therefore does not use domestic currency for buying a domestic product but uses foreign currency reserves instead. Question- How did the US come up with the 8000 tons of gold they have ? Answer- Back when the US was a creditor export nation they demanded that the goods they sold to other countries be paid in gold, not toilet paper. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokal Posted October 5, 2009 Share Posted October 5, 2009 your disagreement does not make "last year" with reference to "1980 and the subsequent 18 years" relevant And what if you bought gold in the early 60s ? Why the hel_l do you assume that every investor in gold in the 80s bought only during the market top ? Do you really think people went 100% gold all in one shot ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokal Posted October 5, 2009 Share Posted October 5, 2009 Interesting article that illustrates why physical capital in its many forms can be useful in uncertain times. My theory differs from the author only in that IMO we have already had the inflation phase, largely in the shadow economy of derivatives, SIVs etc. but leaking out into RE, stock and bond bubbles, and that the deflationary burst of same is already underway and at 10X will overwhelm anything any government can counteract in the daylight economy. i don't understand your reasoning at all CH. why "physical capital" if a "deflationary burst" is underway? No debtor nation in history (the US is a debtor nation) with an imploding economy has had an appreciating currency. I can tell you are not from Iceland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 your disagreement does not make "last year" with reference to "1980 and the subsequent 18 years" relevant And what if you bought gold in the early 60s ? Why the hel_l do you assume that every investor in gold in the 80s bought only during the market top ? Do you really think people went 100% gold all in one shot ? a question asked by a 25year old! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 Interesting article that illustrates why physical capital in its many forms can be useful in uncertain times. My theory differs from the author only in that IMO we have already had the inflation phase, largely in the shadow economy of derivatives, SIVs etc. but leaking out into RE, stock and bond bubbles, and that the deflationary burst of same is already underway and at 10X will overwhelm anything any government can counteract in the daylight economy. i don't understand your reasoning at all CH. why "physical capital" if a "deflationary burst" is underway? In the early phase a slow rate of deflation will benefit holders of cash and bonds. But if it accelerates to the point where the financial system breaks down, as it came very close to doing once already, the electromagnetic bits that represent cash in one's account somewhere may rather suddenly not be redeemable for the local currency anymore. we are back to square one CH and i repeat what i said before "if one owns all capital physically, i.e. one can touch it any time one feels like then one is poor." those who were able to save a wee bit more can't do without the bits and bytes in the banking system even though they might keep gold and various currencies physically to last them a few years. it is correct that the financial system was on the verge of a breakdown. however, in my [not so] humble view it would have been a temporary and not a lasting one. if a lasting one would occur the only solution is to follow the order "helmets off, kneel down for prayer, pray NOW!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 And what if you bought gold in the early 60s ? then the chance is high that you are dead by now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cloudhopper Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 I'm guessing that would make for an angry mood. Best to befriend your neighbors now I would think. I just saw this in a blog today - "A good name is to be more desired than great wealth, Favor is better than silver and gold." Proverbs 22:1 Would apply doubly to us farangs here in los I'da thought... we are back to square one CH and i repeat what i said before "if one owns all capital physically, i.e. one can touch it any time one feels like then one is poor." those who were able to save a wee bit more can't do without the bits and bytes in the banking system even though they might keep gold and various currencies physically to last them a few years.it is correct that the financial system was on the verge of a breakdown. however, in my [not so] humble view it would have been a temporary and not a lasting one. if a lasting one would occur the only solution is to follow the order "helmets off, kneel down for prayer, pray NOW!" There are many forms of capital professor of which PM and currency are but modern examples of. If the ATM goes dark for good one day even more useful forms will be fresh water, energy, tools and a farm. The Buddha has pointed out that all things are temporary and I concur, but in the event of a rather extended period of temporary chaos refer to 22:1 as the best advice for an environment conducive to employing one's capital in whatever form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 There are many forms of capital professor of which PM and currency are but modern examples of. If the ATM goes dark for good one day even more useful forms will be fresh water, energy, tools and a farm. The Buddha has pointed out that all things are temporary and I concur, but in the event of a rather extended period of temporary chaos refer to 22:1 as the best advice for an environment conducive to employing one's capital in whatever form. i'm neither a Buddhist nor do i believe in any of "The Buddha's" teaching even though most of them might contain great wisdom. all what i know is that i am living in a shitty world and as long as i live i am trying to make the best out of it. not only for me but for those who depend on me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainARK1 Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 Gold at $1002.2 and climbingbut in the background .... receding waters off Patong beach - receding to beyond 500 metres. You could have (would have/should have yawn, yawn ) made an easy $7-9+/unit on this short trade alone - and if you were LONG before, you'd have closed the LONG = taken profit and then positioned for the inevitable short at the same-o, same-o coffeshop = 61.8% retracement + pitchfork line. In essence, you'd be up around $18+/unit easily, but by playing the market with your collective middle-legs, you lost both opportunities? Best part, you would have set the take profit order well in advance so you'd capture the whole amount right at the boundary line. Don't worry, sh*t happens. See accompanying chart for how Andrews Pitchfork would have so easily helped you - doesn't work always, but works often enough to be a force and both Gold and Silver have an antediluvian habit of pitchforking often. Dollar doesn't, neither does GBP do it well enough to be worthwhile. At least somebody would be making money today and it certainly is not me - I'm still flat with my thumb up my ass waiting for GBPUSD to trigger my short. I'm not trading gold, not even tempted to do so as its too volatile for me. And if you think you're too old to read the book on Price, note that General George S. Patton was heard muttering in glee as he surveyed the tank battle in Tunisia, "Rommel, you magnificent bastard, I read your book!!!" Pitchfork primer ..... http://www.tradecision.com/support/pitchfork.htm my gold pitchfork chart showing the sooooo obvious boundaries that were drawn in advance - note my usage is more artistic than what's in the article, as I toggle the knob to tweak a good fit and keep adjusting till Price tells me I'm right, which when it works, is very fast, before the move has really made much progress .. so you can set your take profit point and your stoploss level very early and then work bull and bear rallies within the fork ad infinitum as some forks go on for hours, days or even months. Sometimes they break after just one or two swings, so it varies. Ditto fork for Silver, actually even better looking than goldie's ------------------------- >>>> but in the background .... receding waters off Patong beach - receding to beyond 500 metres <<<<< Gold @ $1,003 and climbing. next move good odds targets .... $973 $944 $898 Don't miss the boat. ----------------------------------------------------- Months or years from now, this moment in History has good odds of going down as GOLD's EPIC BULL TURN in a 30-yr period. Also good odds that the coming bearmarket in Gold will be even swifter than the drop from the 1980 top. Also good odds that every major market in the world will turn with this very same turn and deliver the massive continuation wave down talked about elsewhere. Now at $1,019 and still climbing .... its last breaths, draw everybody in with the glitter, then reverse. A STOP below 1014 might be a good idea despite your supreme level of bullishness and certainty that Gold is going to $20k. The pitchfork shown in the prev. post was on 60-min. - its upper boundary becomes the median line on the larger-view fork on 240-min. As you already know, there are never any guarantees with these patterns, but when you see the median line offering good support and resistance and the previous shorting and covering opportunity working on 60-min., it COULD be telling ... ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flying Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 Now at $1,019 and still climbing .... its last breaths, draw everybody in with the glitter, then reverse. It has been breathing for many a century & will continue as long as there is demand. Yet no paper fiat has survived.... All that aside do you base all your calls on charts, pitch forks etc. ? It seems world events have no bearing on your calls..... chai mai? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lannarebirth Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 There are many forms of capital professor of which PM and currency are but modern examples of. If the ATM goes dark for good one day even more useful forms will be fresh water, energy, tools and a farm. The Buddha has pointed out that all things are temporary and I concur, but in the event of a rather extended period of temporary chaos refer to 22:1 as the best advice for an environment conducive to employing one's capital in whatever form. i'm neither a Buddhist nor do i believe in any of "The Buddha's" teaching even though most of them might contain great wisdom. all what i know is that i am living in a shitty world and as long as i live i am trying to make the best out of it. not only for me but for those who depend on me too. And that's about all I know too. 50 years looking for the "meaning of life" leads me to think we're here only to take care of each other as best we can and hopefully not become too defiled, ourselves, in the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokal Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 Gold at $1002.2 and climbingbut in the background .... receding waters off Patong beach - receding to beyond 500 metres. You could have (would have/should have yawn, yawn ) made an easy $7-9+/unit on this short trade alone - and if you were LONG before, you'd have closed the LONG = taken profit and then positioned for the inevitable short at the same-o, same-o coffeshop = 61.8% retracement + pitchfork line. In essence, you'd be up around $18+/unit easily, but by playing the market with your collective middle-legs, you lost both opportunities? Best part, you would have set the take profit order well in advance so you'd capture the whole amount right at the boundary line. Don't worry, sh*t happens. See accompanying chart for how Andrews Pitchfork would have so easily helped you - doesn't work always, but works often enough to be a force and both Gold and Silver have an antediluvian habit of pitchforking often. Dollar doesn't, neither does GBP do it well enough to be worthwhile. At least somebody would be making money today and it certainly is not me - I'm still flat with my thumb up my ass waiting for GBPUSD to trigger my short. I'm not trading gold, not even tempted to do so as its too volatile for me. And if you think you're too old to read the book on Price, note that General George S. Patton was heard muttering in glee as he surveyed the tank battle in Tunisia, "Rommel, you magnificent bastard, I read your book!!!" Pitchfork primer ..... http://www.tradecision.com/support/pitchfork.htm my gold pitchfork chart showing the sooooo obvious boundaries that were drawn in advance - note my usage is more artistic than what's in the article, as I toggle the knob to tweak a good fit and keep adjusting till Price tells me I'm right, which when it works, is very fast, before the move has really made much progress .. so you can set your take profit point and your stoploss level very early and then work bull and bear rallies within the fork ad infinitum as some forks go on for hours, days or even months. Sometimes they break after just one or two swings, so it varies. Ditto fork for Silver, actually even better looking than goldie's ------------------------- >>>> but in the background .... receding waters off Patong beach - receding to beyond 500 metres <<<<< Gold @ $1,003 and climbing. next move good odds targets .... $973 $944 $898 Don't miss the boat. ----------------------------------------------------- Months or years from now, this moment in History has good odds of going down as GOLD's EPIC BULL TURN in a 30-yr period. Also good odds that the coming bearmarket in Gold will be even swifter than the drop from the 1980 top. Also good odds that every major market in the world will turn with this very same turn and deliver the massive continuation wave down talked about elsewhere. Now at $1,019 and still climbing .... its last breaths, draw everybody in with the glitter, then reverse. A STOP below 1014 might be a good idea despite your supreme level of bullishness and certainty that Gold is going to $20k. The pitchfork shown in the prev. post was on 60-min. - its upper boundary becomes the median line on the larger-view fork on 240-min. As you already know, there are never any guarantees with these patterns, but when you see the median line offering good support and resistance and the previous shorting and covering opportunity working on 60-min., it COULD be telling ... ? You have no fundamental reason for thinking this. Did I miss something ? Has Bernanke raised interest rates ? Has a debtor nations currency ever gained value in a deflationary depression ? Iceland comes to mind....... Will you give me some reasons now that you are in the gold thread ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokal Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 Now at $1,019 and still climbing .... its last breaths, draw everybody in with the glitter, then reverse. It has been breathing for many a century & will continue as long as there is demand. Yet no paper fiat has survived.... All that aside do you base all your calls on charts, pitch forks etc. ? It seems world events have no bearing on your calls..... chai mai? He has no fundamental reasoning when it comes to gold, niether does Prechter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lannarebirth Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 Anywaqy, congratulations to the goldbugs, the traders and true believers alike. New all time highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flying Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 Anyway, congratulations to the goldbugs, the traders and true believers alike. New all time highs. Pretty nice move We will see where it goes this year. Didn't Dr. Naam say he was a buyer when it broke $1030? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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