Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[sokal]

Mr. Gerbino's misstatement of fact wasn't an even analogy if you care to use that word correctly... and it seems that, to stay on topic, that gold bugs might often be loose with for misstate facts like that gold bug Mr. G.L. Liddy you see on FOX.

No wonder your a FIAT bug, you have trees in your avatar. :D

[flying]

Mr. Gerbino's misstatement of fact wasn't an even analogy if you care to use that word correctly... and it seems that, to stay on topic, that gold bugs might often be loose with for misstate facts like that gold bug Mr. G.L. Liddy you see on FOX.

Have Mercy........... It was I that used that quote as an analogy for the original poster to whom I was replying.................

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Gold-Market-...20#entry3078420

Get some sleep & stay off Fox you will not learn anything there.

But you did spell loose correctly this time

[jazzbo]

I would respond but SBK would be angry with me if she had to suspend me twice in 2 month's time.

[gregb]

because this thread is about XAU and my question was directly related to another question "How many people have gone broke investing in gold over a considerable amount of time ?"

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Gold-Market-...77#entry3076677

your posting is an "exemple par excellence" and proves what i wrote yesterday about goldbug irrelevance, dodging and trying to divert from the discussed topic.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Gold-Market-...84#entry3077584

next!

I'm sorry Naam. Perhaps you didn't read my post carefully enough, or maybe you simply didn't understand.

This post can hardly be used as an example of trying to divert from the discussed topic. The topic of this post is gold. Gold is a currency. Currency trading is very risky. We can all find examples of people making fortunes and losing fortunes in this industry. During the 80's and 90's gold was a weak currency. Fundamental economic factors which I have stated several times indicate that gold will be a much stronger currency in the future.

This is very relevant to the discussion at hand. It is important to understand why gold is showing the moves that it is, and not try to frame the discourse in such a way that allows someone to disparage one currency out of hundreds, thus missing the larger picture. It is unfortunate we seem to be talking past one another, but I understand some people have very emotional reactions to gold, both positive and negative. If there is one thing that I believe you can learn from the past century, it is not to allow unreasonable emotional reactions to colour your judgement when making investment decisions.

So again, your previous question in all the threads you indicate is identical to asking how many people have made fortunes or lost them by trading any currency, as long as some of their bets included XAU. A currency trader who was short on gold in the 80's and 90's and long on gold recently would do very well. I'm sure there are currency traders out there who made this bet and became wealthy, and I'm sure there are ones who lost and went broke. Before the break down of Bretton Woods in 1971, this wasn't even possible, as all fiat currencies were fixed to gold. Your demand for three decades of success would therefore be met by any currency trader who made a bet one way or the other on XAU at any point in his career and didn't go bust, as no trader makes his living solely on a single currency. You have to have at least 2, or you can't even trade, and any realistic trader is going to focus on several.

The important follow up to your question, and the main topic of this entire thread, is what is the anticipated future direction of the currency XAU? If you dispute this is the critical question, please read the thread topic again in the title bar at the top of your window. I attempted to answer that also. The answer, as I discussed above, is that fundamental physical factors make the currency XAU look very strong in relation to most fiat currencies today.

It isn't necessary to be a gold bug just to be intelligent enough to see this. I will try to answer any questions you have if you still believe that I am attempting to divert from the discussed topic. Otherwise, I hope I've been able to sufficiently clarify my position so that there is no further misunderstanding.

[Naam]

when seen from your perspective your points are valid GregB and i quite appreciate your rebuttal as it seems to be well founded and especially because it lacks immature and stupid questions such as "why do you hate gold so much?" or "you don't like gold because you don't own any?" or (my favourite) "one Krüger Rand will buy a bakery!"

however, my perspective differs. we cannot rationally discuss single "sub topics" if always the "big picture" dominates and distorts individual pros or cons, the reason why i mentioned diversion and dodging.

where i completely disagree is your claim "gold is currency". true is that gold WAS a currency. now it is not a currency but a rare metal with unique properties and qualities but a fluctuating value based on the whims of offer and demand like any other commodity or asset.

the latter is the reason why in my [not so] humble view not only the present but the future value of gold too is not one iota less "fiat" than the value of any currency or asset because offer and demand are either based on needs or on expectations to be fulfilled in the future.

[lannarebirth]

when seen from your perspective your points are valid GregB and i quite appreciate your rebuttal as it seems to be well founded and especially because it lacks immature and stupid questions such as "why do you hate gold so much?" or "you don't like gold because you don't own any?" or (my favourite) "one Krüger Rand will buy a bakery!"

however, my perspective differs. we cannot rationally discuss single "sub topics" if always the "big picture" dominates and distorts individual pros or cons, the reason why i mentioned diversion and dodging.

where i completely disagree is your claim "gold is currency". true is that gold WAS a currency. now it is not a currency but a rare metal with unique properties and qualities but a fluctuating value based on the whims of offer and demand like any other commodity or asset.

the latter is the reason why in my [not so] humble view not only the present but the future value of gold too is not one iota less "fiat" than the value of any currency or asset because offer and demand are either based on needs or on expectations to be fulfilled in the future.

I suppose reasonable people can disagree on whether or not "gold is currency", though I fall into the camp you have described. No one can argue that XAU is currency as XAU is merely the symbol for the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Sector Index, which is comprised of 16 Gold and Silver mining companies.

[cloudhopper]

where i completely disagree is your claim "gold is currency". true is that gold WAS a currency. now it is not a currency but a rare metal with unique properties and qualities but a fluctuating value based on the whims of offer and demand like any other commodity or asset.

the latter is the reason why in my [not so] humble view not only the present but the future value of gold too is not one iota less "fiat" than the value of any currency or asset because offer and demand are either based on needs or on expectations to be fulfilled in the future.

While I agree that gold does not have a huge intrinsic value compared with paper, gold does in fact have currency utility as a globally recognized medium of exchange that fluctuates in exchange value for local legal tenders like any other currency. Although gold like any other currency is only "worth" what someone is willing to exchange for it, that said worth has apparently been better maintained by gold than by paper especially during times of economic and political uncertainty.

[lannarebirth]

where i completely disagree is your claim "gold is currency". true is that gold WAS a currency. now it is not a currency but a rare metal with unique properties and qualities but a fluctuating value based on the whims of offer and demand like any other commodity or asset.

the latter is the reason why in my [not so] humble view not only the present but the future value of gold too is not one iota less "fiat" than the value of any currency or asset because offer and demand are either based on needs or on expectations to be fulfilled in the future.

While I agree that gold does not have a huge intrinsic value compared with paper, gold does in fact have currency utility as a globally recognized medium of exchange that fluctuates in exchange value for local legal tenders like any other currency every other thing. Although gold like any other currency every other thing is only "worth" what someone is willing to exchange for it, that said worth has apparently been better maintained by gold than by paper especially during times of economic and political uncertainty.

[Naam]

touché! must have been the influence of the cheap booze i drink. can't afford quality beverages. don't own any gold. whatever gold i bought i gave to my wife and she refuses to give it back.

[Naam]

Although gold like any other currency is only "worth" what someone is willing to exchange for it, that said worth has apparently been better maintained by gold than by paper especially during times of economic and political uncertainty.

i fully agree with this wording if the emphasis is on "during times of economic and political uncertainty".

[cloudhopper]

While I agree that gold does not have a huge intrinsic value compared with paper, gold does in fact have currency utility as a globally recognized medium of exchange that fluctuates in exchange value for local legal tenders like any other currency every other thing. Although gold like any other currency every other thing is only "worth" what someone is willing to exchange for it, that said worth has apparently been better maintained by gold than by paper especially during times of economic and political uncertainty.

Well sure in a pure barter system but I'm arguing that gold bullion acts in every way like a major currency e.g. I could probably get USD in the States about as easily for a kilo bar or a stack of GBP. Easier to get THB here for 965 gold than any other currency. It's judged value fluctuates like every other currency. Both paper and gold might be easier to exchange for water than electromagnetic bits someday tho...

[lannarebirth]

While I agree that gold does not have a huge intrinsic value compared with paper, gold does in fact have currency utility as a globally recognized medium of exchange that fluctuates in exchange value for local legal tenders like any other currency every other thing. Although gold like any other currency every other thing is only "worth" what someone is willing to exchange for it, that said worth has apparently been better maintained by gold than by paper especially during times of economic and political uncertainty.

Well sure in a pure barter system but I'm arguing that gold bullion acts in every way like a major currency e.g. I could probably get USD in the States about as easily for a kilo bar or a stack of GBP. Easier to get THB here for 965 gold than any other currency. It's judged value fluctuates like every other currency. Both paper and gold might be easier to exchange for water than electromagnetic bits someday tho...

I do agree Gold has greater fungibility and portability than other commodities. In that way it does behave more similarly to a currency than does, say a bale of cotton.

[flying]

I suppose reasonable people can disagree on whether or not "gold is currency",

I suppose, although I would agree it is not currency ... it is money

"Gold was not selected arbitrarily by governments to be the monetary standard. Gold had developed for many centuries on the free market as the best money; as the commodity providing the most stable and desirable monetary medium." Murray N. Rothbard

"Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the 'hidden' confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights." Alan Greenspan

"For more than two thousand years gold's natural qualities made it man's universal medium of exchange. In contrast to political money, gold is honest money that survived the ages and will live on long after the political fiats of today have gone the way of all paper."

Hans F. Sennholz

Edited October 16, 2009 by flying

[sokal]

when seen from your perspective your points are valid GregB and i quite appreciate your rebuttal as it seems to be well founded and especially because it lacks immature and stupid questions such as "why do you hate gold so much?" or "you don't like gold because you don't own any?" or (my favourite) "one Krüger Rand will buy a bakery!"

however, my perspective differs. we cannot rationally discuss single "sub topics" if always the "big picture" dominates and distorts individual pros or cons, the reason why i mentioned diversion and dodging.

where i completely disagree is your claim "gold is currency". true is that gold WAS a currency. now it is not a currency but a rare metal with unique properties and qualities but a fluctuating value based on the whims of offer and demand like any other commodity or asset.

the latter is the reason why in my [not so] humble view not only the present but the future value of gold too is not one iota less "fiat" than the value of any currency or asset because offer and demand are either based on needs or on expectations to be fulfilled in the future.

I suppose reasonable people can disagree on whether or not "gold is currency", though I fall into the camp you have described. No one can argue that XAU is currency as XAU is merely the symbol for the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Sector Index, which is comprised of 16 Gold and Silver mining companies.

It is kind of ironic that people don't think gold is a currency when the bankers bank, the central banks, hold thousands of tons of it. That is also why gold is on the bottom of the inverted pyramid of capital.

[Naam]

why is it that central banks hold fiat money, fiat treasuries and fiat IOUs valued multiple times the value of gold they hold? assuming that physical gold is much more valuable than any fiat asset one must conclude that all central bankers are plain stupid

[Naam]

I suppose reasonable people can disagree on whether or not "gold is currency",

I suppose, although I would agree it is not currency ... it is money

ah sez... FLYING FOR GOBBLE PRIZE!

[flying]

ah sez... FLYING FOR GOBBLE PRIZE!

Ah...Thank You Kuhn Klingon...Thank You....

While accepting this award I would like to thank my parents who may not have always showed me the right way but through watching their belief in the system betrayed I learned some things not to believe in.

I would also like to thank the guberment who through their actions also showed me what not to believe in....

I would like to thank the Austrian school of economics for continueing to show me things that make perfect sense.

I would like to thank so many others but I see my time is limited so I will just say

RON PAUL rocks

Edited October 17, 2009 by flying

[khunjake]

New Weekly High Closing Price..

[flying]

New Weekly High Closing Price..

Yes doing nicely ! Old pic though? Or did it get cropped?

I think it will go sideways till Nov but remain consolidated above 1k USD

Edited October 17, 2009 by flying

[sokal]

why is it that central banks hold fiat money, fiat treasuries and fiat IOUs valued multiple times the value of gold they hold? assuming that physical gold is much more valuable than any fiat asset one must conclude that all central bankers are plain stupid

Gold came before fiat, always has and always will. Fiat would not have a place to start without gold.

[Abrak]

It is kind of ironic that people don't think gold is a currency when the bankers bank, the central banks, hold thousands of tons of it. That is also why gold is on the bottom of the inverted pyramid of capital.

Central banks have very large holding of gold not because it 'is' a currency but because of a legacy that it 'was' the currency.

Now some central banks like Zimbabwe are thinking about backing their currency against gold.

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/minewe...9&sn=Detail

But they could also back their currency against pretty well anything and give it more credibility.

[sokal]

It is kind of ironic that people don't think gold is a currency when the bankers bank, the central banks, hold thousands of tons of it. That is also why gold is on the bottom of the inverted pyramid of capital.

Central banks have very large holding of gold not because it 'is' a currency but because of a legacy that it 'was' the currency.

Now some central banks like Zimbabwe are thinking about backing their currency against gold.

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/minewe...9&sn=Detail

But they could also back their currency against pretty well anything and give it more credibility.

More irony ! The most recent country to experience hyperinflation is thinking about backing their currency with gold.

What could they back their currency with other then gold ? Credit default swaps ? Here is a related article....

Central banks do not sell gold to get a few billion of their own fiat money in return, money they probably would throw on top of the stack of half a trillion freshly printed notes that rolled off their presses just that morning. No, central banks sell gold to make it appear that the paper stuff is more desirable than its true supply and demand fundamentals would allow. And when the game looks like it's coming to an end, the central banks can always buy back the gold.

It is not a problem to buy back the gold at even $50,000 per ounce when any amount of paper currency can be printed.

What is a big problem is if the currency loses its value so fast that no one will sell the central banks any gold for any amount of paper. (Try buying gold with Zimbabwean dollars.)

Full article here

[jazzbo]

What the US dollar represents is not some underlying commodity, metal, or the cotton & linen on which it is printed: It represents "The full faith and credit" of the USA defined as "An unconditional commitment to pay interest and principal on debt, usually issued or guaranteed by the U.S. Treasury or another government entity." (InvestorWords.com)

With most, but certainly not all, rational investors and bankers around the world that sounds pretty good. For the rest, they can sit on and play with their gold and all sing in unison:

"It's The End Of The World As We Know It, And I Feel Fine"

[flying]

"The full faith and credit" of the USA defined as "An unconditional commitment to pay interest and principal on debt

Yeah not like they ever defaulted before

[jazzbo]

Yeah not like they ever defaulted before

When?

[flying]

Yeah not like they ever defaulted before

When?

1933 & 1971

Funny note for cycles types

1933 to 1971 is 38 years

What is 1971 + 38 years?

Not that I am a cycles person

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editoria.../2009/0213.html

In 1933, the US government by executive order confiscated the gold of all Americans thus ending the belief that paper money was interchangeable with gold and silver and was therefore a trustworthy medium of exchange.

This confiscation of gold by the US was to be later repeated on an international level. But instead of only forcing Americans to abandon gold as it had in 1933, in 1971 the US would force the entire world to do so.

Edited October 17, 2009 by flying

[jazzbo]

Thank you... and from my favorite flying movie The Flight of the Phoenix (1965) the following line:

Heinrich Dorfmann: Mr. Towns, you behave as if stupidity were a virtue. Why is that?

[flying]

Mr. Towns, you behave as if stupidity were a virtue. Why is that?

Well Mr Towns just leave that tooth under your pillow Im sure you will be fine.

[jazzbo]

Well, you're just too sharp for me. G.Gordon Libby and R.M.Scaife, here I come... ain't Michele Malkin HOT!!

[flying]

Well, you're just too sharp for me. G.Gordon Libby and R.M.Scaife, here I come... ain't Michele Malkin HOT!!

Being too sharp for you is no prize but...if you ask a question I try to answer it.

Like I said before stay off the TV it is not helping you...Neither are all the fiction movies you quote.