Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[churchill]

Big developments today. Gold was going up with the dollar this morning by quite a high margin and stocks where getting clobbered (-190 dow) while gold stocks gained. Oil was down by almost $2 too.

Gold was decoupling from everything. Is the train leaving the station for gold stocks or at least putting a floor under them ?

Rumours again that the Chinese are about to announce purchase of IMF gold .

http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews.html

"China buying IMF gold" story unfounded: author

BEIJING (Reuters) - The author of an article that said China had confirmed it would buy 191.3 tons of gold from the International Monetary Fund said on Friday she didn't have official sources for her story.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE61P0QZ20100226

[churchill]

It's not too late for the BOT to sell dollars for gold

from http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/2010/...g-30123453.html

"ON several occasions I have discussed with Bank of Thailand officials, including Governor Tarisa Watanagase, the management of the foreign-exchange reserves. By and large, they give the same feedback: that although they have diversified the foreign-exchange reserves, they still believe that the US dollar will be the global currency for the foreseeable future. No other currencies or assets could replace the US dollar yet in terms of liquidity and depth. During any jitters in the financial markets, investors and money managers shift their investments back to holding dollar assets."

continued ..

[churchill]

India Raises Duties on Gold, Silver on Higher Prices

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-02-2...s-update1-.html

[flying]

"China buying IMF gold" story unfounded: author

On the one hand that would be some what surprising given their own production.

Then again if I had as much reserves as them I would be more than happy to exchange some of it.

[sokal]

Big developments today. Gold was going up with the dollar this morning by quite a high margin and stocks where getting clobbered (-190 dow) while gold stocks gained. Oil was down by almost $2 too.

Gold was decoupling from everything. Is the train leaving the station for gold stocks or at least putting a floor under them ?

is there one more DOW besides the one which went down -53.13

it was down 190 mid day. The rest must have been a fed ramp job.

[Naam]

"China buying IMF gold" story unfounded: author

On the one hand that would be some what surprising given their own production. Then again if I had as much reserves as them I would be more than happy to exchange some of it.

a logical conclusion from you. but then... can goldbugs generally think in logical way?

[Naam]

It's not too late for the BOT to sell dollars for gold

from http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/2010/...g-30123453.html

"ON several occasions I have discussed with Bank of Thailand officials, including Governor Tarisa Watanagase, the management of the foreign-exchange reserves. By and large, they give the same feedback: that although they have diversified the foreign-exchange reserves, they still believe that the US dollar will be the global currency for the foreseeable future. No other currencies or assets could replace the US dollar yet in terms of liquidity and depth. During any jitters in the financial markets, investors and money managers shift their investments back to holding dollar assets."

continued ..

an undeniable fact although the future development of the dollar's value vs. other currencies is not taken into consideration.

[flying]

a logical conclusion from you. but then... can goldbugs generally think in logical way?

well.......just the fact that they have gold makes them logical no?

[Naam]

a logical conclusion from you. but then... can goldbugs generally think in logical way?

well.......just the fact that they have gold makes them logical no?

it all depends for what purpose the gold was bought. those who think that they will be able to buy a bakery sooner or later are illogical²

[gregb]

"China buying IMF gold" story unfounded: author

BEIJING (Reuters) - The author of an article that said China had confirmed it would buy 191.3 tons of gold from the International Monetary Fund said on Friday she didn't have official sources for her story.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE61P0QZ20100226

Truthfully, I have no idea if China is really buying gold or not, but this article by Reuters is intentionally misleading. Everyone states the source of their information is Finmarket, a Russian news agency. Then, Reuters comes along and says one of the hundreds of people who parrot the Finmarket report, a small website called Rough & Polished, have no official sources.

Well, of course they don't. They simply copied Finmarket, just like everyone else did. Why is Reuters not contacting Finmarket to find out if they have any official sources? Why chose a 3rd party source, and then intentionally omit the original reporter? Finmarket may not have any sources either. It could be a complete hoax, but this report is blatantly misleading.

It is stories like this which make me distrustful of anything reported by major Western media.

In short, be distrustful of everything you read. Most news agencies have agendas today. Your job as an investor is distill the genuine information from the chaff like this Reuters article.

[churchill]

I haven't heard this view before -

Manager fears bank gold could be phased out

Gold risks being replaced in the long term by a basket of currencies in central bank reserves, according to a portfolio manager on the Smith & Williamson Global Gold and Resources fund.

http://www.ftadviser.com/InvestmentAdviser...-phased-out.jsp

[flying]

I haven't heard this view before -

Manager fears bank gold could be phased out

Gold risks being replaced in the long term by a basket of currencies in central bank reserves, according to a portfolio manager on the Smith & Williamson Global Gold and Resources fund.

Using special drawing rights would remove one of the two major drivers from the gold markets, leaving jewellery as the chief catalyst for demand.

Personally I think he is dreaming if he thinks removing it would leave jewelery as the only demand.

Especially these days when folks scurry from one paper to another seeing the emperor has no clothes.

But....as I said earlier this next week (or two) may give an opportunity to add to physical holdings if one were inclined. Sadly I think 1045 was the low the last time I spoke of a low. This time I will be surprised to see it go sub 1080...but as always anything is possible.

In the near term, Mr Lyon said the chief risk to the gold price was a rise in real-term interest rates. If interest rates were to rise in the US, this would make the dollar more attractive, lessening demand for gold as a replacement reserve currency.

I also disagree with this...I do not think the dollar will be more & more attractive as we go forward.

I also do not think about demand for gold as a reserve currency as it just will not happen.....TPTB would wage WWIII before they allowed it. Instead I think gold (& silver) will continue to do well as free gold....again anything is possible & we will see how this summer goes

Edited March 1, 2010 by flying

[churchill]

George Soros is helping drive up gold prices by doubling his bet in a market even he considers a “bubble” as Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Barclays Capital and HSBC Holdings Plc predict more gains before it bursts.

Soros Fund Management LLC, which manages about $25 billion, increased its investment in SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest exchange-traded fund for the metal, by 152 percent in the fourth quarter, a Feb. 16 Securities and Exchange Commission filing shows. While prices have fallen 8.9 percent since reaching a record on Dec. 3, 15 of 22 analysts in a Bloomberg survey say gold will reach a new high, with the median forecast predicting a 16 percent advance to as much as $1,300 an ounce this year.

“When interest rates are low we have conditions for asset bubbles to develop, and they are developing at the moment,” Soros said at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, in January. “The ultimate asset bubble is gold,” he said.

In a Jan. 28 Bloomberg Television interview, the 79-year- old billionaire recalled that former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned of “irrational exuberance” in financial markets three years before the technology bubble burst in 2000. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 89 percent in the period. Buying at the start of a bubble is “rational,” Soros said.

Gold’s fourfold rally since the end of 2000 has also attracted money managers John Paulson, Paul Tudor Jones and David Einhorn. Paulson’s Credit Opportunities Fund soared almost sixfold in 2007 by betting that subprime mortgages would plummet. Einhorn said in October that his Greenlight Capital Inc. bought gold to bet against the dollar.

continued ..http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aFszao23VDGA&pos=10

[sokal]

No other currencies or assets could replace the US dollar yet in terms of liquidity and depth. During any jitters in the financial markets, investors and money managers shift their investments back to holding dollar assets."

continued .

an undeniable fact although the future development of the dollar's value vs. other currencies is not taken into consideration.

Remember the undeniable fact that real estate prices go up for ever ? It was true until it wasn't

Next bubble ?, USD of course

[sokal]

I haven't heard this view before -

Manager fears bank gold could be phased out

Gold risks being replaced in the long term by a basket of currencies in central bank reserves, according to a portfolio manager on the Smith & Williamson Global Gold and Resources fund.

http://www.ftadviser.com/InvestmentAdviser...-phased-out.jsp

Bring it on, bring on the endless race to the bottom and let gold go.

[teletiger]

I'm wondering about the conditions of the IMF gold sale. Do they contain the phrases 'physical delivery' or 'assayed' and 'guaranteed'? Or will it just be a bookkeeping entry, with the gold held elsewhere.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/german-pr...ary-bank-origin

Funny to think of passing....errr selling gold as difficult.

Regards.

[Naam]

I haven't heard this view before -

Manager fears bank gold could be phased out

Gold risks being replaced in the long term by a basket of currencies in central bank reserves, according to a portfolio manager on the Smith & Williamson Global Gold and Resources fund.

http://www.ftadviser.com/InvestmentAdviser...-phased-out.jsp

unless this basket contains more than the present five currencies of the Special Drawing Rights i have strong doubts. but a shake-up and addition of more currencies to add balance would end a lot of wet dreams abruptly.

[crs]

OT but hope peps don't mind. Taking gold bullion (not bullion coins with a currency face value - I mean ingots) out of Thailand - any constraints regarding Customs? Found info on bringing in - but not out. Again, excuse me and ta for help.

Edited March 3, 2010 by crs

[simcity]

OT but hope peps don't mind. Taking gold bullion (not bullion coins with a currency face value - I mean ingots) out of Thailand - any constraints regarding Customs? Found info on bringing in - but not out. Again, excuse me and ta for help.

Just make sure what you buying here have the same gold content as the one from your own country, it will be nearly impossible to sell otherwise.

the proceed to extract the gold will be to costly and specific to do.

Taking out of Thailand sound ok, enter into a other country have regulation attach to it i presum.

[crs]

OT but hope peps don't mind. Taking gold bullion (not bullion coins with a currency face value - I mean ingots) out of Thailand - any constraints regarding Customs? Found info on bringing in - but not out. Again, excuse me and ta for help.

Just make sure what you buying here have the same gold content as the one from your own country, it will be nearly impossible to sell otherwise.

the proceed to extract the gold will be to costly and specific to do.

Taking out of Thailand sound ok, enter into a other country have regulation attach to it i presum.

9999 Pamp Suisse from http://ausiris.co.th/en/index.php

[flying]

Gold grab underway

[flying]

Russia Continues to Build Its Gold Reserves Ahead of the SDR Discussions

[Naam]

Russia Continues to Build Its Gold Reserves Ahead of the SDR Discussions

Jesse knows! being an eckspurt he even writes his knowledge down in a blockspat for others to read.

[gregb]

OT but hope peps don't mind. Taking gold bullion (not bullion coins with a currency face value - I mean ingots) out of Thailand - any constraints regarding Customs? Found info on bringing in - but not out. Again, excuse me and ta for help.

As I understand it, since the tax reforms of August of 1999 there are NO import or export licenses required for importing or exporting 999 gold bullion, and the industry is fully deregulated. Jewellery on the other hand, is still subject to licensing. The Ministry of Finance is the final authority on this. I would be very interested in hearing alternative interpretations of this ruling however.

The only published information I can find on this comes from Section 5 of the business handbook released by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Everything else I have is opinions from people that are not necessarily the final authorities.

Gold bullion is also specifically exempt from VAT.

It seems to me that you could walk out with several kg's of gold bullion from Thailand, and nobody would care. Speak up now if anyone believes this is incorrect.

[Abrak]

I am not sure but I believe that it is illegal to export gold. That is why there are no export licenses. It does stand to reason that it is illegal because Thais have been subject to currency controls which limits the amount of money they take out the country. It would be rather pointless if you could just take unlimited gold. However in December Thailand imported over US$1bn of gold.

My GF tells me that Thai gold fetches a small premium overseas which would also suggest exporting is restricted. I mean if you want to take gold abroad to take advantage of the premium it stands to reason that it isnt allowed.

I would also point out that gold traders are very flexible and imaginative here so you could possibly achieve your goals through them.

I dont really know but I think it would be wise to do a bit more research before doing it. If it is illegal there could be trouble. I also suspect that whatever you are trying to achieve can be done at virtually no cost through a gold trader although you are going the wrong way to get the best spreads for laundering.

[simcity]

My GF tells me that Thai gold fetches a small premium overseas which would also suggest exporting is restricted. I mean if you want to take gold abroad to take advantage of the premium it stands to reason that it isnt allowed.

Can you ask your GF, if that mean selling jewellery items or selling scrap gold contain.

If someone else like your necklace / bracelet i understand Thai price are good, with low craftsmanship cost add on it and he / she could buy it for more as what you paid for.

If need to sell the gold in pawnshop / jewellery as gold contain, that nearly impossible, Thai gold have a different content, the proceed to extract the gold will be to costly and specific.

My personal experience, i got a ring done in Bangkok, i bought a stone in Chiangmai, and i went to see a friend jeweller in Australia asking to put it together, he told me ok, but will be illegal because the ring will not be stamp for tax.

Can you make money selling items to private . YES

Can you sell Thai gold scrap overseas. NO

Can you use thai gold to do a new jewellery overseas. Yes & NO

Edited March 8, 2010 by simcity

[Naam]

My GF tells me that Thai gold fetches a small premium overseas which would also suggest exporting is restricted. I mean if you want to take gold abroad to take advantage of the premium it stands to reason that it isnt allowed.

your girlfriend is wrong Abrak.

[crs]

OT but hope peps don't mind. Taking gold bullion (not bullion coins with a currency face value - I mean ingots) out of Thailand - any constraints regarding Customs? Found info on bringing in - but not out. Again, excuse me and ta for help.

As I understand it, since the tax reforms of August of 1999 there are NO import or export licenses required for importing or exporting 999 gold bullion, and the industry is fully deregulated. Jewellery on the other hand, is still subject to licensing. The Ministry of Finance is the final authority on this. I would be very interested in hearing alternative interpretations of this ruling however.

The only published information I can find on this comes from Section 5 of the business handbook released by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Everything else I have is opinions from people that are not necessarily the final authorities.

Gold bullion is also specifically exempt from VAT.

It seems to me that you could walk out with several kg's of gold bullion from Thailand, and nobody would care. Speak up now if anyone believes this is incorrect.

I'd go along with what you've said.

From online research:

Prohibited (without licence):

2. Gold bullion. Moreover it must be declared on arrival and can, if no import licence is available, be left in Customs bond at the airport of entry to be retrieved on departure.

However, I've also found the quote you gave re. recent reforms mentioning the deregulation of the above. And, besides, no mention is made re. export of gold bullion - only import is stated as prohibited.

Thanks for the info.

[flying]

There was I thought a thread on this before but.........Search function here really sucks

This is in regards to going into or leaving the US

http://help.cbp.gov/cgi-bin/customs.cfg/ph...amp;p_topview=1

Gold coins, medals, and bullion may be brought into the U.S. However, under regulations administered by the Office of Foreign Assets Control, such items originating in or brought from, Cuba, Iran, and Sudan* are prohibited entry.

Copies of gold coins are prohibited if not properly marked by the country of issuance. The importation of counterfeit coins is prohibited.

There is no duty on gold coins, medals or bullion, but if the value of the gold coins is over $10,000, it must be declared to a Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Officer and must be reported on the FinCEN 105 form.

This is for the UK

http://customs.hmrc.gov.uk/channelsPortalW...tyType=document

[Abrak]

Remember the undeniable fact that real estate prices go up for ever ? It was true until it wasn't

Next bubble ?, USD of course

I agree with you for a change. One day the dollar will prove it isnt a safe haven. And people will turn around and ask themselves why did I think it was a safehaven in the first place.