Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[flying]

Remember the undeniable fact that real estate prices go up for ever ? It was true until it wasn't

Next bubble ?, USD of course

I agree with you for a change. One day the dollar will prove it isnt a safe haven. And people will turn around and ask themselves why did I think it was a safehaven in the first place.

but........so many say it is the last haven ( of currencies ) so at that point where do folks run?

My guess........PM's & land/tangibles Hey I am beating the rush

Edited March 8, 2010 by flying

[Samuian]

My GF tells me that Thai gold fetches a small premium overseas which would also suggest exporting is restricted. I mean if you want to take gold abroad to take advantage of the premium it stands to reason that it isnt allowed.

your girlfriend is wrong Abrak.

Agreed, BUT with the exception:

"if imported illegal, not declared, there is in many countries a tax margin of about 10-12%!"

but it includes the risk of getting caught "smuggling"!

Or selling Gold ornaments to country folks living abroad, which is often done, small scale, as well!

this is probably what this "gf" meant!

[lannarebirth]

Remember the undeniable fact that real estate prices go up for ever ? It was true until it wasn't

Next bubble ?, USD of course

I agree with you for a change. One day the dollar will prove it isnt a safe haven. And people will turn around and ask themselves why did I think it was a safehaven in the first place.

but........so many say it is the last haven ( of currencies ) so at that point where do folks run?

My guess........PM's & land/tangibles Hey I am beating the rush

There's no really safe place in the globalised economy. If they run your currency, then your assets will deflate and the tax man steps on the gas. If any one of those pops up , one of the others will drag it back down. So, what you're forced to do is try to stay one step ahead of the game, with probably shorter and shorter time windows to do so, and eventually you make a mistake. If one has enough capital they can diversify broadly and accept that they are going to take one or more serious hits somewhere.

Edited March 8, 2010 by lannarebirth

[Naam]

Remember the undeniable fact that real estate prices go up for ever ? It was true until it wasn't

Next bubble ?, USD of course

I agree with you for a change. One day the dollar will prove it isnt a safe haven. And people will turn around and ask themselves why did I think it was a safehaven in the first place.

but........so many say it is the last haven ( of currencies ) so at that point where do folks run?

My guess........PM's & land/tangibles Hey I am beating the rush

There's no really safe place in the globalised economy. If they run your currency, then your assets will deflate and the tax man steps on the gas. If any one of those pops up , one of the others will drag it back down. So, what you're forced to do is try to stay one step ahead of the game, with probably shorter and shorter time windows to do so, and eventually you make a mistake. If one has enough capital they can diversify broadly and accept that they are going to take one or more serious hits somewhere.

all said, nothing much to add except that the price of each asset is based on offer and demand and not on wet dreams and/or wishful thinking.

[flying]

There's no really safe place in the globalised economy. If they run your currency, then your assets will deflate and the tax man steps on the gas.

Many times when considering the current state of affairs.....I feel the same way...

That in the end there is no really safe place. Which is why I tend to say prepping rather than investing.

[lannarebirth]

There's no really safe place in the globalised economy. If they run your currency, then your assets will deflate and the tax man steps on the gas.

Many times when considering the current state of affairs.....I feel the same way...

That in the end there is no really safe place. Which is why I tend to say prepping rather than investing.

Income producing assets or businesses whose valuation or pricing power can be tied to inflation would be one area that ought to work (assuming you spend in the same currency). The cost of coming up with a decent, secure income stream has gone through the rooof though.

[flying]

Income producing assets or businesses whose valuation or pricing power can be tied to inflation would be one area that ought to work (assuming you spend in the same currency). The cost of coming up with a decent, secure income stream has gone through the roof though.

Things here in my neck of the woods while not Zimbabwe is sure looking thin. Each new jobs report celebrates how they lost less jobs than they thought they would. Never a word about any new jobs created... I believe the count is somewhere around 6+ million lost now.

Looking in the classifieds here you see less than a dozen jobs ...if you can call them jobs....there use to be pages.

Looking at the real estate section you see a dozen homes for sale & less in the raw land sections.

Not for lack of things for sale mind you...But because realtor's no longer waste their dime advertising due to lack of buyers.

Looking in a MLS you see the reality....Tons for sale

Income producing business that is tied to inflation? Gas Station or Grocery Store ....btw the price of food here

[Abrak]

Just one final warning to the guy thinking of taking gold bullion out of the country.

I think you should be very careful for the following reasons.

1) You need to submit forms get BoT permission to send money out of the country

2) Thailand is fairly serious about money laundering.

For both those reasons you should assume that carrying large amounts of gold out the country is possibly not permitted.

Also if you are found carrying large amounts of gold out of the country, it would be possible that customs etc maybe extremely suspicious about what you are actually up to and may take the matter pretty seriously.

Here is a not very promising link.

http://www.thaitrade.com/TradingInformatio...46/Default.aspx

[sokal]

I didn't know this.....

U.S. credit default swaps currently trade in euros. After all, if the U.S. defaults, who will want payment in devalued U.S. dollars? The euro recently weakened relative to the dollar, and market participants are calling for contracts that require payment in gold. If they get their way, speculators on the winning side of a price move will demand collateral paid in gold.

[Naam]

I didn't know this.....

U.S. credit default swaps currently trade in euros. After all, if the U.S. defaults, who will want payment in devalued U.S. dollars? The euro recently weakened relative to the dollar, and market participants are calling for contracts that require payment in gold. If they get their way, speculators on the winning side of a price move will demand collateral paid in gold.

= bullshit!

[lannarebirth]

Edited March 9, 2010 by lannarebirth

[Naam]

Mongolian credit default swaps currently trade in Angolan Kwanza.

[Naam]

copying and pasting BS does not turn the BS miraculously into facts.

[Naam]

a trader at UBS Singapore asked me today whether Mrs Naam had a soft spot and allocated an early morning bottle of Portwine.

[churchill]

China, the world's biggest holder of foreign exchange reserves, renewed its commitment to the U.S. Treasury market on Tuesday but said it would be wary of adding to its gold holdings.

continued .. http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6280...usiness+News%29

[flying]

Actually I saw the article that quoted what sokal posted today.....

Washington Must Ban U.S. Credit Derivatives as Traders Demand Gold

As to validity .....I know nothing

But I noticed this fact that will astound Herr Naam

I found out today I can get not 1 but more than 11 bakeries for one gold krugerrand

[sokal]

I didn't know this.....

U.S. credit default swaps currently trade in euros. After all, if the U.S. defaults, who will want payment in devalued U.S. dollars? The euro recently weakened relative to the dollar, and market participants are calling for contracts that require payment in gold. If they get their way, speculators on the winning side of a price move will demand collateral paid in gold.

= bullshit!

Janet Tavakoli said it and she knows a hel_l of allot more about this sh*t then you do.

Janet Tavakoli is derivatives and securities expert based in Chicago. She has had three books published on credit derivatives, structured finance, and the 2008 global financial crisis. Tavakoli has traded, structured and sold derivatives and structured products in both New York and London. She has held senior positions in the global financial markets division at Westdeutsche Landesbank in London, the capital markets group for Bank One in Chicago, the asset swap trading desk at Merrill Lynch in New York, mortgage backed securities marketing for Merrill Lynch in New York, and mortgage backed securities marketing to Japanese clients for PaineWebber in New York. She has also worked for Bear Stearns and Goldman Sachs.

[Naam]

another wet dream brutally interrupted:

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- China's appetite for gold as a way to diversify its foreign-exchange reserves is limited because of the metal's poor returns over the past 30 years, the nation's foreign-exchange regulator was cited as saying in a report Tuesday.

Yi Gang, director of China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said China's gold reserves, at 1,054 metric tons, were the fifth-largest in the world, Dow Jones Newswires reported, citing comments by Yi at a press conference at the National People's Congress.

But Yi downplayed any desire to add the holdings as a strategy to diversity the nation's $2.4 trillion foreign exchange stockpile.

"Gold is not a bad asset, but currently a few factors limit our ability to increase foreign-exchange investment in gold," Yi was quoted as saying.

Calculations by the Dow Jones showed China's gold holdings amounted to 1.6% of its total forex reserves, based on reported bullion holdings at the end of last year.

Yi acknowledged that China's arrival as a gold buyer has had an impact on world markets for the precious metal, adding that moves by Beijing to purchase gold would "certainly" increase prices, according to the report.

China surprised the market in April last year by declaring gold holdings of 1,054 metric tons, 76% higher than its previous declaration, placing it ahead of Switzerland in terms of the size of its bullion stockpile. It also catapulted China into an elite club of six nations, plus the International Monetary Fund, that hold more than 1,000 tons.

[Naam]

I didn't know this.....

U.S. credit default swaps currently trade in euros. After all, if the U.S. defaults, who will want payment in devalued U.S. dollars? The euro recently weakened relative to the dollar, and market participants are calling for contracts that require payment in gold. If they get their way, speculators on the winning side of a price move will demand collateral paid in gold.

= bullshit!

Janet Tavakoli said it and she knows a hel_l of allot more about this sh*t then you do.

i fully agree as i'm not at all interested to know a lot more about any shit moreover the demand of a "single Janet" does not represent the demands of "plural market participants".

[Jake1]

China, the world's biggest holder of foreign exchange reserves, renewed its commitment to the U.S. Treasury market on Tuesday but said it would be wary of adding to its gold holdings.

continued .. http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6280...usiness+News%29

This is the key point made in the article imo

"It is, in fact, impossible for gold to become a major investment channel for China's foreign exchange reserves. I have 1,000 tonnes now, and even if I doubled that holding, according to current prices, that would be about $30 billion," Yi said.

The paper market has grown WAY too big. It dwarfs reality. The price of Gold must rise to a price where large buyers and sellers meet.

[Naam]

China, the world's biggest holder of foreign exchange reserves, renewed its commitment to the U.S. Treasury market on Tuesday but said it would be wary of adding to its gold holdings.

continued .. http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6280...usiness+News%29

This is the key point made in the article imo

"It is, in fact, impossible for gold to become a major investment channel for China's foreign exchange reserves. I have 1,000 tonnes now, and even if I doubled that holding, according to current prices, that would be about $30 billion," Yi said.

The paper market has grown WAY too big. It dwarfs reality. The price of Gold must rise to a price where large buyers and sellers meet.

care to elaborate on that?

[Jake1]

Large quantities of gold are not for sale at these prices. China would like to accumulate 6000-1000 tons of Gold but that is an impossible task at these prices. There is not a gold market for the large buyer. Any attempt made to aquire large sums of gold puts the entire monetary system at risk and may backfire on them allowing them to buy even less gold.

[Naam]

Large quantities of gold are not for sale at these prices. China would like to accumulate 6000-1000 tons of Gold but that is an impossible task at these prices. There is not a gold market for the large buyer. Any attempt made to aquire large sums of gold puts the entire monetary system at risk and may backfire on them allowing them to buy even less gold.

says WHO?

[lannarebirth]

Large quantities of gold are not for sale at these prices. China would like to accumulate 6000-1000 tons of Gold but that is an impossible task at these prices. There is not a gold market for the large buyer. Any attempt made to aquire large sums of gold puts the entire monetary system at risk and may backfire on them allowing them to buy even less gold.

says WHO?

Says HU? WEN?

[sokal]

another wet dream brutally interrupted:

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- China's appetite for gold as a way to diversify its foreign-exchange reserves is limited because of the metal's poor returns over the past 30 years, the nation's foreign-exchange regulator was cited as saying in a report Tuesday.

Yi Gang, director of China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said China's gold reserves, at 1,054 metric tons, were the fifth-largest in the world, Dow Jones Newswires reported, citing comments by Yi at a press conference at the National People's Congress.

But Yi downplayed any desire to add the holdings as a strategy to diversity the nation's $2.4 trillion foreign exchange stockpile.

"Gold is not a bad asset, but currently a few factors limit our ability to increase foreign-exchange investment in gold," Yi was quoted as saying.

Calculations by the Dow Jones showed China's gold holdings amounted to 1.6% of its total forex reserves, based on reported bullion holdings at the end of last year.

Yi acknowledged that China's arrival as a gold buyer has had an impact on world markets for the precious metal, adding that moves by Beijing to purchase gold would "certainly" increase prices, according to the report.

China surprised the market in April last year by declaring gold holdings of 1,054 metric tons, 76% higher than its previous declaration, placing it ahead of Switzerland in terms of the size of its bullion stockpile. It also catapulted China into an elite club of six nations, plus the International Monetary Fund, that hold more than 1,000 tons.

Russia talked down gold and then turned around and bought more, George Soros did the same thing, now China is talking down gold....

[manarak]

the crisis isn't over.

the loss of value of USD and EUR was just a fast-forward on what would have happened anyway.

global trade flows weaken the old strong currencies every day.

this is currently reflected in the perceived "strength" of the Thai baht - but there really is no strength. it's just the USD, EUR and GBP losing value against ALL OTHER CURRENCIES.

Everyone worries now about Greece, Iceland and Spain, that's why the EUR plummets.

The best is to bet on well-managed independent currencies like the Swiss Franc and on nations with relatively few citizens and high natural resources, like Canada and Australia.

very soon, the baby-boomers will drop out of the working population and will become pensioners. someone will have to pay for that.

The effect will be strengthened even more because not only are the pensions to be paid, but also there will be less tax income for the state because the baby-boomers' high salaries will be replaced by cheaper workforce, many comapnies will chose to close down in their homecountries and transfer the jobs abroad, while in their home country, foreign migrants take over more jobs for less money. And the cheaper workforce will automatically also have less money to spend in the local consumer goods market, so this is a downward spiral.

In Europe, the starting date is around 2015 - 2020, since the baby-boom begun around 1953 in Europe.

the governments will have to take the money where it is and raise taxes. I expect huge changes in fiscal laws in the very next years.

to protect your assets against loss of value, sell USD, GBP and EUR and invest in CHF, CAD and AUD, along with gold, silver, platinum.

Make a basket.

It could also be a very good idea to invest in the corresponding Stocks in these currencies, for example in Cameco, Rio Tinto, and why not other mining companies in AUD.

I also see uranium and nuclear power as being safe investments.

Huge and globally active companies like Nestlé and Novartis in CHF will always have a market, so they are a good buy too.

Edited March 9, 2010 by manarak

[Abrak]

Large quantities of gold are not for sale at these prices. China would like to accumulate 6000-1000 tons of Gold but that is an impossible task at these prices. There is not a gold market for the large buyer. Any attempt made to aquire large sums of gold puts the entire monetary system at risk and may backfire on them allowing them to buy even less gold.

says WHO?

r

Wow that is really scary. I thought half the goldies were loonies but they actually control the entire monetary system through a few billion dollars of gold. So presumably they were the ones who caused the financial crisis.

[lannarebirth]

the crisis isn't over.

The best is to bet on well-managed independent currencies like the Swiss Franc and on nations with relatively few citizens and high natural resources, like Canada and Australia.

... invest in CHF, CAD and AUD, along with gold, silver, platinum.

What about Canadian and Australian housing bubbles? You think those will remain intact?

[Jake1]

Large quantities of gold are not for sale at these prices. China would like to accumulate 6000-1000 tons of Gold but that is an impossible task at these prices. There is not a gold market for the large buyer. Any attempt made to aquire large sums of gold puts the entire monetary system at risk and may backfire on them allowing them to buy even less gold.

says WHO?

Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- China should increase the amount of gold it holds in reserves to reduce potential losses from a depreciating dollar, the China Youth Daily said today, citing Ji Xiaonan, head of the supervisory committee at the state-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission.

"We recommend China increase its gold reserves to 6,000 metric tons within three-to-five years and possibly to 10,000 tons in eight to 10 years," the paper quoted Ji as saying http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=aMnUukhsa.hM

[manarak]

the crisis isn't over.

The best is to bet on well-managed independent currencies like the Swiss Franc and on nations with relatively few citizens and high natural resources, like Canada and Australia.

... invest in CHF, CAD and AUD, along with gold, silver, platinum.

What about Canadian and Australian housing bubbles? You think those will remain intact?

I think that these housing markets will have a soft landing.

The final push is given to housing bubbles by people not having enough money to pay their mortgages back. Can't see this happening as a mass phenomenon in Canada or Australia.

In addition of being rather small markets (small volume compared to huge natural resources value), Australian and Canadian homes remained relatively cheap! My RENTED standard, not luxurious, 4 room 110 m2 appartment with community parking and shared washing room is rated at 850.000 EUR !!

so what bubble are you talking about.

Over here, the effects of the "housing bubble" were that prices remained stable in the last 2 years. Over here, that's a crisis!

Edited March 9, 2010 by manarak