Thailand Escapes Financial Meltdown

[Seneque]

For 'Seneque', re post #38:

You said:

"What is happening now is simply the result of ultimate greed and criminal financial activities by bankers and to think that they are being freely bailed out without any blink of an eye shows how far and how deep this goes as they are hand in hand with extremely corrupted politicians."

I think that that is an excellent, succinct exegesis, and will 'adopt' it, if that is OK by you.

Whats the aussie dollar worth to thai baht

As of friday Oct 24th .... AUD 1 = Baht 21 .... (10 baht per AUD down since July (a little over 30%!!)) ... coming from one of the best managed and ressourceful country in the world ... it is insanity beyong repair !!! ... yes i know about leverage, carry trades and the lot ... but something is real wrong somewhere !

[CPH]

I think Thai Baht will go to around 43 to USD during the next year. As soon as the Thai Central Bank stops supporting The Baht it will go pretty fast. Just look at the Korean currency.

Does anyone know how large deposit amount is insured in case the bank goes bankrupt.

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

For 'Seneque', re post #38:

You said:

"What is happening now is simply the result of ultimate greed and criminal financial activities by bankers and to think that they are being freely bailed out without any blink of an eye shows how far and how deep this goes as they are hand in hand with extremely corrupted politicians."

I think that that is an excellent, succinct exegesis, and will 'adopt' it, if that is OK by you.

Whats the aussie dollar worth to thai baht

As of friday Oct 24th .... AUD 1 = Baht 21 .... (10 baht per AUD down since July (a little over 30%!!)) ... coming from one of the best managed and ressourceful country in the world ... it is insanity beyong repair !!! ... yes i know about leverage, carry trades and the lot ... but something is real wrong somewhere !

Yes the AUD and the kiwi have both had a dramatic fall. I had my money there in term deposit as I felt comfortable with the stability of both places. Fortunately I have a fair bit in LOS also so don't have to worry about pulling it out at such a crappy rate. I guess you take the good with the bad.

I moved $ into LOS about a year ago and got 30-1 from Oz and 25-1 from KIWI to buy my condo, which by the way I could not be happier with it than I am. But I'm still getting a good interest rate from my $ down there, now if it will just go back up before I need any more I will be happy as Larry.

I was sweating a bit before they guaranteed the savings in both places.

[Samuian]

............edit........

I moved $ into LOS about a year ago and got 30-1 from Oz and 25-1 from KIWI to buy my condo, which by the way I could not be happier with it than I am. But I'm still getting a good interest rate from my $ down there, now if it will just go back up before I need any more I will be happy as Larry.

I was sweating a bit before they guaranteed the savings in both places.

Well, works both ways...sometime!

Where the gains of the last 5 years on the SET have gone.... is not worrying, at the time they say....all is sound and safe, they say!

Guess it's all the same, we will see!

[hardy1943]

I think Thai Baht will go to around 43 to USD during the next year. As soon as the Thai Central Bank stops supporting The Baht it will go pretty fast. Just look at the Korean currency.

Does anyone know how large deposit amount is insured in case the bank goes bankrupt.

I do not think there is any deposit insurance. Have 1.5 mill. Baht in a CD, will mature Dec. 23th have it with Siam Com.

Plan to build a house here in Chiang Rai. See some of newly build houses and business complexes finished here are still

sitting there empty. This world wide recession will hit LOS very hard. Baht is way to strong and exports drying up.

US $ 34.5 Baht ... Pound 53.1...Euro 43.1 ..Aussie 20.9 Tourism is almost gone. With those exchange rates no one will

invest here. I have the most loveliest Thai wife and the house is for her, we already have a beautiful piece of property

1 rai all walled in with a stainless steel gate. I am American and I do not like the exchange rate , I feel sorry for all of you

[Samuian]

[..........edit..... This world wide recession will hit LOS very hard. Baht is way to strong and exports drying up.

US $ 34.5 Baht ... Pound 53.1...Euro 43.1 ..Aussie 20.9 Tourism is almost gone. With those exchange rates no one will

invest here.......

well there was a suggestion by the Finance Minister Suchart Thadathamrongvej said he would like the baht currency to depreciate by five percent to help stimulate the export sector and shoulder the economy in 2009.

The economic growth for next year should stay at four percent or lower while the export growth would be no more than 10 percent due to the global economic crisis, he said.

-The Nation-

Hey Suchart ! I’ve got another idea for you : why not devaluate the THB by 1000 % versus the USD, so all thai companyies would become, instantaneously, multi billionaires… in worthless THB… That sounds good, huh ? ;-)

Of course, all the thai imports would become 1000 % more expensive, but mai pen rai ! It’s not important. Furthermore, don’t we have a trade deficit ? Nah… it’s irrelevant… ;-)

Thai exports are going into the wall. It’s not an exchange rate issue, it’s a demand problem. The major trading partners of Thailand are already in recession…

Suchart can even buy a simple-way ticket to the moon or put on pink underwears… the thai exports will go down, and the growth of GDP will go down, there is nothing he can do about it.

Source:

Well it's an Opinion like many others but very likely to happen this way or in a more dramatic fashion, NO WAY Thailand will get away with just a scratch!

Sometime next year the trad deficit.... ah' well I am not an economic guru, not a fortune teller!

But common sense tells it's very own story.

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

I think Thai Baht will go to around 43 to USD during the next year. As soon as the Thai Central Bank stops supporting The Baht it will go pretty fast. Just look at the Korean currency.

Does anyone know how large deposit amount is insured in case the bank goes bankrupt.

My impression it is 100 million baht which will decrease in steps to 1million baht in 5 years, so you needen't start sweating yet.

[MJP]

I think Thai Baht will go to around 43 to USD during the next year. As soon as the Thai Central Bank stops supporting The Baht it will go pretty fast. Just look at the Korean currency.

Does anyone know how large deposit amount is insured in case the bank goes bankrupt.

I do not think there is any deposit insurance. Have 1.5 mill. Baht in a CD, will mature Dec. 23th have it with Siam Com.

Plan to build a house here in Chiang Rai. See some of newly build houses and business complexes finished here are still

sitting there empty. This world wide recession will hit LOS very hard. Baht is way to strong and exports drying up.

US $ 34.5 Baht ... Pound 53.1...Euro 43.1 ..Aussie 20.9 Tourism is almost gone. With those exchange rates no one will

invest here. I have the most loveliest Thai wife and the house is for her, we already have a beautiful piece of property

1 rai all walled in with a stainless steel gate. I am American and I do not like the exchange rate , I feel sorry for all of you

Same as that old boy.

Did all the big spending at GBP 75.75. Saw the way the UK was going back in 2003. Had to pull the reins in on spending now. Mrs. MJP has been wonderful about it. Understands the situation globally now.

She's extremely worried about Thailand though. Reckons civil war and communism are on the cards. I don't agree, but it is interesting to know what these folks are thinking.

USD and GBP will go down together. USD to tank after the Presidential's/New Year.

GBP and UK plc overall to enter the third world. Things are not good here.

[RPETER65]

With half the jobs in Thailand still tied to agriculture and static growth in export-focused manufacturing the Thai consumer won't be riding to the rescue. As is the usual pattern, the lowest paid and most vulnerable workers will bear the brunt of it.

They wont even notice . Thailand is /was /always has been a "communist" country apart from the ELITE .

Could you explain that please.

[rubik101]

This turns up in every newspaper, every day now. Today's Telegraph

"Britain faces a recession which could be deeper, more painful and longer-lasting than the early 1990s, experts warned after the economy shrank for the first time in 16 years."

Isn't rice the major export from Thailand?

In which case, the quantity, although not the price, will vary very little in the coming years. The consumers of rice will continue to eat, despite world-wide downturns.

I buy Thai fragrant rice here in UK and in the last 2 years the price has risen 25%. I still buy it because there is no alternative! All the bags of rice have risen by the same amount.

I think Thailand is fairly well placed, particularly with such a low equity/loan ratio.

As has been pointed out, 90% is a lot better than some US and Euro banks who have loan to equity raios around 30:1. No wonder they are folding or begging for equity now the bad times are here.

I am about to emigrate to LOS in Feb and I only wish I could leave today.

Thailand is still a far better place to be when the world economy is in turmoil than the US, EU and many other countries with huge debts.

Edited October 25, 2008 by rubik101

[aaaaaa]

I would say the resulting strong Baht isn't helping exports too much

Strong Baht? The Baht has weakened, and the dollar strengtened. Good for Exports to the U.S.A. for Thai companies.

Barry

according to specialists, strenthening of $ is very temporary thing.

some call it "death convulsions"

USDollar Death Dance

or watch

in reality though, there are few things right now going on:

1) Thai PM Somchai has proposed to ASEAN+3 to create a crisis fund.

his original idea was - $350bln. but now it has been reported only $80bln - perhaps they'll add more later?

2) Sarkozy on behalf of EU has requested (or perhaps rather begged?) China during ASEM meeting in Beijing to help solve global economic crisis.

because China has biggest forex reserve surplus of $2bln. however as I saw, China didn't say it will help. and why should it actually?

this mess was created by US bankers and Wall street and FED. they've very much crewed the whole world with their FIAT CURRENCY called USD.

and many countries who kept large USD reserves and also invested in US finance or mortgage has suffered HUGE LOSSES !

so, it is quite understandable that China is not so fired up to "help".

now, the 3)

in Thailand, particularly in Bkk, people rushed to buy gold ! which which price coincidentally has dropped about 200 Baht.

and yesterday on Nation there was an article that Association of Gold traders of Thailand has made announcement - that they'll stop selling gold bars on weekends.

because they simply are not able to supply so much.

GOLD SALES

No bullion on weekends

The Nation, Oct 25, 2008

Gold shops close on weekend, starting on Oct 25

Bangkok - Gold shops nationwide announced to stop selling gold on Saturday and Sunday to reduce risk.

By Manager Online, Oct 25, 2008

The closure is to reduce shop’s risk. Gold shops may face losses since the world Gold Futures Market price is not available.

Gold buyers will be allowed to buy not more than 10-baht or 150-gram gold bar on Monday-Friday. Suwan Walaisathien, president of the Saver Club, gold prices sharply dropped because funds sold them off for profit taking. Investors lacked confidence because of the US financial crisis. The price of gold bar remained at 12,400 baht yesterday while the gold ornaments were traded at 12,500 baht for one-baht gold weight. It was possible gold prices would be weakened further.

cool ! prices gonna drop further - but ... thre is NO GOLD ! mostly because traders KNOW that gold price will hike tremendoulsy again pretty soon, and therefore they KNOW that they gonna loose if they sell on these low prices now. that's why they LIMIT the stock of physical gold for sale at the moment.

(some guy on Thai TV said that people should not buy now but wait a bit more - gold will drop to $600 per ounce, or about 10'000 for 1 Baht)

this reflects the REALITY which is dominant in the rest of the world too:

the real physical gold is in deficit now, although mysteriously gold prices dropped a lot.

this is only due to huge speculations in "paper gold" - which hardly shows the actual realistic picture of gold demand.

other relevant facts:

Asia-Pacific market takes a beating amid global crisis

By The Nation, Bloomberg Oct 23, 2008

Sales decline to $20.9 billion in the third quarter from $55.5 billion last year

EXPORTS AMID CRISIS

Growth may shrink to 7% next year: BOT

The Nation, Oct 18, 2008

The Bank of Thailand (BOT) has issued a stern warning that the growth of exports,

the major driving force in the country's economy for several decades, next year will be only 7%

down from its previous forecast of 12.5-15.5 per cent. The SET Index is expected to be 413 points this year, he said.

Under the latest consensus, earnings-per-share growth of listed companies has been slashed from 6.6 per cent to 2.3 per cent.

so, you say "good for export..."

yes, theoretically ! that is - IF US and EU will be able to continue to buy from Thailand !

which is very unlikely - with all the sh1t they absorb now, which only STARTED to fly after hitting the fan.

and IF USD remains as strong as it is now. which is very unlikely.

Edited October 25, 2008 by aaaaaa

[DerringDo]

It may have escaped the first wave and may not be as badly affected as some countries but we will still suffer.

Now another point, I think I read in the last few months and was told about, is that all bank account deposit guarantees in Thailand will be reduced to zero within 5 yrs. So if you've got flash cash in the bank and the bank goes under you'll lose everything, i.e. NO depositor guarantee .

Which is one of the reasons the UK seized the Icelanders bank assets and helped push them over the edge I believe. Perhaps Iceland should have guaranteed the deposits but with a very small withdrawal limit in any one period.

Does anyone remember the article about Thai deposits/depositors?

[srisatch]

There is no way Thailand can escape the totality

Yes we might revert to some agrarian paradise

Guarantees of deposits!!!! You must be joking

I'm just keeping the GPS turned on as the wife is walking around with 12 Baht of gold on her neck, fingers,wrists!!

[aaaaaa]

It may have escaped the first wave and may not be as badly affected as some countries but we will still suffer.

Now another point, I think I read in the last few months and was told about, is that all bank account deposit guarantees in Thailand will be reduced to zero within 5 yrs. So if you've got flash cash in the bank and the bank goes under you'll lose everything, i.e. NO depositor guarantee .

Which is one of the reasons the UK seized the Icelanders bank assets and helped push them over the edge I believe. Perhaps Iceland should have guaranteed the deposits but with a very small withdrawal limit in any one period.

Does anyone remember the article about Thai deposits/depositors?

wow ! that's some scary sh1t ! r u sure?

I think you better try to find that source and provide it.

coz it is not a joke to make some statement like that.

[Gravelrash]

Interesting story, while the PAD is melting down Thailand to such an extent that no freedom and no wealth is left (Except for their Chinese friends of course).

Thailand's economy will be virtually wiped out if 2% of the population will continue (with support of the highest people) to hold the country randsom. Therefore the comments are misplaced and thus absurd, Thailand will not escape a meltdown, the new tourist figures will speak for itself. The new investment figures will tell all of the story. Banks cannot even find customers for their credit nowadays that is even worse.

THis is not a very intelligent statement. Thaksin and his cronies are the core of the Thai-Chinese businessmen who brought this country to ruin 1987 and are at again.

What ever one perceives the Chinese to be up to, it really is a matter between them and Thais. Besides it was a done deal long ago, the Chinese drive the industry and merchant class, the old Thai money drives the "protected" monopolies, the middle class Thais make their money off corruption through government, and the peasants are the cogs in the machine.

When the westerners turned up late to the party, they simply ended up pumping money into the bar industry. All the whining here won't change anything as no one in the power game is concerned about it, they have to sort out their own noses being in what trough.

PAD appears to be backed by the real power, the puppets will play out that game until it is time to sort things out again. Relax and enjoy the sunshine.

[CPH]

"Deposit Insurance Act

24 June 2008

The Deposit Insurance Act, taking effect on 13 February 2008, establishes a Deposit Insurance Agency to guarantee depositors' funds in the event of a bank bankruptcy. The Agency will reduce the amount insured for each depositor for all deposits insured in the first year, to a maximum insured of 100 million baht the second year, 50 million baht the third year, 10 million baht the fourth year, and 1 million baht the fifth year. According to sources, the act is perceived by many as a means of strengthening consumer confidence in the Thailand financial system. "

I think deposits are safe for now. Problem only in 5 years for most people.

[aaaaaa]

in reality though, there are few things right now going on: ...

perhaps one more important thing has to be added

that Bush has called upon G8 (and Sarcozy said actually better if it is G20 ) for some emergency meeting pretty soon.

the rumors are - there will be a discussion about NEW world reserve currency.

so, either way USD is utterly f***d !

even if it continues to exist (and not becomes a collector's item - if Amero really introduced) - it will certainly lose its monopoly of global reserve currency.

in fact it already has lost it:

- Iran is selling oil to Japan in Yen, and announced it will trade in a bascket of several other currencies as Euro;

- Osaka bourse in Japan is trading in basket of BRIC currencies;

- Venezuela stopped selling oil in $ already quite for a while (they sort of trade, or barter - for REAL goods and commodities);

- 6 Arab countries (GCC) has announced last month establishing their own Single currency (similar to Euro) and gonna use it to sell oil;

- Russia said will sell its gas and oil in ruble, which they will make golden hard currency.

these are just a few realities - not any sort of things which can be branded as "conspiracy theory" (as some claim Amero is).

so, whatever happens - Thailand WILL be affected, that's for sure !

to which extent - well, that's I'd also very much like to know.

apparently, Thai government and local joke of a media are using some sort of soothing calming hypnotizing brainwashing propaganda BS -

by saying thing like that "oh, no problems, Thailand has escaped global meltdown" ! BS !!!!!!!

or perhaps they are themselves in THOROUGH ILLUSION about the seriousness of the situation !

as I read on Nation - Thai government "might lose $8bln bid on rice". dam_n ! stupid morons ! they better KEEP that rice now - coz later (may be pretty soon) it will be more valuable than oil or even gold ! coz FOOD SHORTAGE in the world is a reality, and recent "Asian Rice crisis" was just a glimpse of the future problems.

or perhaps it is both: government ignorant and BS-ing people.

coz with all the PAD circus and almost war with Cambodia - the least thing they want is if people start to panic and pull out their money from the banks !

(as say, in Russia they do now - buying dollars in hurry! so stupid - buying BS rumors spread by speculators)

coz THai economy and tourism especially is already suffered and still suffering a lot due to all the sh1t created by PAD thugs.

and if people realize that sh1t hit the fan and exports are going down (or will stop completely) - imagine what it will cause !

therefore, Thai media and government are giving these reports, since they can't simply ignore the facts and current events - there are a lot of educated people in Thailand especially in Bkk, who watch foreign news and use internet, who follow the development of global crisis on Blogs, Forums, Youtube (all the REAL news - alternative to what Western MSM still trying feed the public).

so, it is understandable - Thai government is in deep enough sh1t already. and it keeps piling up on them. at least Somchai has managed to attend ASEM and talk with ASEAN+3 about this anti-crisis fund ! this is at least something, and will be his big credit - even if he will be ousted as Samak (which is very likely - and pretty SOON).

so, folks - WAKE up and smell cappuccino ! it WILL affect Thailand.

it is not a question "will or not" - but rather question of "when" and "how badly"

(those who live in province or country side - might consider making or expanding storage and buying some goods; or at least buying gold as value saving)

PAD morons and all the urban elite and "media class" will be humbled ! coz in the city they'll have nothing much to eat.

but the very people (baan nork) whom they are trying to discriminate and disenfranchise now

and take away their rights to vote (as in Chamlong's New Politics) - those very same people will save them as usually and show compassion and mercy - FOOD !

coz rural folks at least have land and their hands to grow some rice and other eatables.

and these idiots PAD only adding to the problem! instead they should have better dispersed and went to upcountry and started to develope land and produce some REAL goods!

or at least concentrated on making money now and saving - instead of TERRORIZING the whole country with their thuggish fascist-style actions !

therefore, I strongly recommend anyone thoughtful enough person to consider all these factors and at very least - not to give into illusion that "Thailand Escapes Financial Meltdown"

well, at least coz the REAL meltdown perhaps hasn't started yet. or if started - then is kept under some control, on last breath, for a little while - most likely till after US elections !

Cheers !

[freddy]

I am taking this piece of news with a proverbial pinch of salt!!!

My art gallery/picture frame shop can normally rely on between 30-40 customers per month but this month, so far, we have had only 6, this shows that no country will avoid being affected by the recent debacle in the financial markets and Thailand's domestic market will bear the brunt as much as anyone elses.

[aaaaaa]

For 'albertsproggins', re post # 43:

You said: "Along with the pork barrel politics rest assured Thailand your masters will sell you down the river and laugh all the way to the bank whilst Somchai and Porn beg for food on the street from the Merceds and B.M.W. drivers."

Whilst I agree that Thailand's upper classes and its emergent middle class have been unconcerned about the plight of the urban poor and the rural poor, I think it is possible to envisage a more optimistic scenario that goes like this:

"Somchai and Porn will be invited by their rural relatives to come and 'kin khao' in the village. the villages need more population as there is now a labour shortage, even for the harvesting of the 'plantation' crops that have been introduced as they are not labour-intensive like rainfall rice.

"But the collapse of manufacture-for-export when the orders stop coming from the formerly consumerist West, and the collapse of incoming long-haul tourist arrivals, will put many of the urban middle class into redundancy and on the path to hunger. So they, too, will head for Ban Nork.

"The formerly-urban middle class will champion the rural power (of whom they will be a part) with momentous potential change for social (economic, political and cultural) change in Thailand."

I did my MA thesis on this. Anybody who would like an electronic copy of my journal article that describes my research is welcome to PM me, giving me their e-mail address.

I think this is the most likely scenario !

so, perhaps after all that's the ONLY positive thing this INEVITABLE global meltdown influence Thailand - that finally at least nation will be truly United.

if, as you say urbanites will move into upcountry - then perhaps they'll START to realize the plight of 'ban-nork'

so, hopefully it will hit Thailand HARD enough to make that happen !

luckily, Thailand is still predominately an agricultural country.

and I think HMK has envisioned all this global turmoil well in advance - that's why he was trying (to no avail) to introduce the 'sufficiency economy' in Thailand.

so, perhaps someone better start to educate those PAD morons about the REALITY.

although first Chamlong and Sondhi has to be jailed.

the sooner it happens - the better for Thailand.

[philstone]

I think Thai Baht will go to around 43 to USD during the next year. As soon as the Thai Central Bank stops supporting The Baht it will go pretty fast. Just look at the Korean currency.

Does anyone know how large deposit amount is insured in case the bank goes bankrupt.

My impression it is 100 million baht which will decrease in steps to 1million baht in 5 years, so you needen't start sweating yet.

In 5 years the big money will leave the Banks for America and watch the Baht drop to the dollars. The Baht can to 60 to dollar.

[aaaaaa]

I am taking this piece of news with a proverbial pinch of salt!!!

My art gallery/picture frame shop can normally rely on between 30-40 customers per month but this month, so far, we have had only 6, this shows that no country will avoid being affected by the recent debacle in the financial markets and Thailand's domestic market will bear the brunt as much as anyone elses.

it is not only your experience.

I talk to my suppliers on JJ weekly - and all of them say same thing, that "biz no good". and they also curse PAD morons

[aaaaaa]

I think Thai Baht will go to around 43 to USD during the next year. As soon as the Thai Central Bank stops supporting The Baht it will go pretty fast. Just look at the Korean currency.

Does anyone know how large deposit amount is insured in case the bank goes bankrupt.

My impression it is 100 million baht which will decrease in steps to 1million baht in 5 years, so you needen't start sweating yet.

In 5 years the big money will leave the Banks for America and watch the Baht drop to the dollars. The Baht can to 60 to dollar.

I am not so sure about 1THB=60$

but certainly it will not remain as it is now.

(that is if $ still exists)

meanwhile, exports are getting another hit ...

Thailand fears sugar defaults

Indonesia faces surplus

Reuters, 10/24/2008

Fears that buyers will default on sugar shipments are worrying sellers in Thailand, Asia's largest exporter,

while the arrival of more raws is causing stocks to pile up in neighboring Indonesia.

Thailand exports sugar to Indonesia, Japan, Taiwan, the Middle East and Europe.

Soft commodities have been hit by fund selling on worries a global recession could cut demand for coffee, cocoa, sugar and rubber.

so, rice and sugar exports are already in trouble.

[Michel1980]

For us Brits 13 pounds used to buy you 1,000 Baht, now the same 1,000 baht cost us 17 pounds, thats a mighty big difference !!

This is going to force a lot of retirees out of LOS, or put many who thought they could retire here off.

Unless they want to lose the income from the British Ex-pats they are really gonna have to do some kind of re-think on this.

Everyone that I know (myself included) are taking really big hits on their savings offshore...and it could get a lot lot worse IMHO

Some that retired here early will have no choice but to go back and replensih their funds by working, so thats a lot of baht they won't be spending here anytime soon.

I know that indeed, the usd and the pounds are worth diddely atm.

The euro is the only pretty stable coin you can have atm.

On the otherhand, ive read it true a bit. Im not a banker, and i find it kindah humor. That there ppl here managing to talk like a banker or account while the live in a poor country like Thailand. Giving a piece of there mind (Like the guy that goes beserk here bullocks ectra move out of here to Laos)

Then go...or better yet go back to were you came from. You will be of WORSE...or else you would not even choose to live here to begin with. In my country i can make barely a living for myself with the taxes i pay there. Im happy were i am, you all should do the samething instead of bugging youreself with this crap.

Then you all should have stay in youre country were the economy is ALLOT worse perspective wise, then here ! Were here to benefit from the "freedom" we have here and easy living that most of us don't have in there own country.

So shutup,...eat you pad thai, drink you mei kong cheapass whiskey. And enjoy the rest of youre life..

[aaaaaa]

I know that indeed, the usd and the pounds are worth diddely atm.

The euro is the only pretty stable coin you can have atm.

On the otherhand, ive read it true a bit. Im not a banker, and i find it kindah humor. That there ppl here managing to talk like a banker or account while the live in a poor country like Thailand. Giving a piece of there mind (Like the guy that goes beserk here bullocks ectra move out of here to Laos)

Then go...or better yet go back to were you came from. You will be of WORSE...or else you would not even choose to live here to begin with. In my country i can make barely a living for myself with the taxes i pay there. Im happy were i am, you all should do the samething instead of bugging youreself with this crap.

Then you all should have stay in youre country were the economy is ALLOT worse perspective wise, then here ! Were here to benefit from the "freedom" we have here and easy living that most of us don't have in there own country.

So shutup,...eat you pad thai, drink you mei kong cheapass whiskey. And enjoy the rest of youre life..

dude, chill out ! your rant is irrelevant

people here discuss the REAL issues - how hard global crisis will affect Thailand.

and I guess - what to do about it, how to prepare or something.

instead you switching it into that mere false premise (Thaivisa's favorite):

"oh, you don't like Thailand? then go back to your country"

as I've read this thread - I haven't noticed ANYONE saying that.

therefore you blow up the whole issue from nothing.

so, cool down and perhaps better get back to your "mei kong cheapass whiskey" ! :D

and let us sober people to talk few things over

[Martin]

" rice and sugar exports are already in trouble" (posted by 'aaaaaa' at 13:11:52)

Sugar exports, maybe. But not rice.

Sugar is, largely, a 'luxury' item. A huge amount goes into soft drinks that people can live without (and be more healthy).

Also, if the sugar price goes up, land can quickly be turned to sugar cane from other crops. So sugar cane growing is a gamble.

But rice is different. There is no way that the wish to purchase rice by overseas buyers is going to fall. Some may not have the oil or gold with which to barter or to raise money to purchase it in competition with the other hungry, that's all.

A second point is that rice stores very well. Around here, most folk don't sell any of their harvest until they get near to the next harvest and can see that their next year's household needs are secure. So, a dip in the price of rice can be lived through. (As can a dip in the price of gold, if you are in no hurry for liquid cash.)

A third point is that it takes time to convert from growing some other crop to growing rice. So there is no worry about a lot of farmers rushing in to create extra rice production, over-supplying the market,and the price collapsing.

Whenever I have pointed to rice as being, I think, Thailand's strong underlying fundamental, there has always been some poster who says "It was only 14% of 2006 GDP", or somesuch. But that is just the surplus rice----there is also the rice consumed at home.

Thailand has a lot of land compared to its population, and a clement climate. It can house and feed all its people without dependence on trade with other countries. That is a strength that many, many other countries no longer have, and which they will struggle to regain. (James Howard Kunstler foresees a grim outlook for America in 'The Long Emergency'.)

As I said before, PM me if you want a fuller version of my scenario of a possible future for Thailand.

[animatic]

I think Thai Baht will go to around 43 to USD during the next year. As soon as the Thai Central Bank stops supporting The Baht it will go pretty fast. Just look at the Korean currency.

Does anyone know how large deposit amount is insured in case the bank goes bankrupt.

My impression it is 100 million baht which will decrease in steps to 1million baht in 5 years, so you needen't start sweating yet.

In 5 years the big money will leave the Banks for America and watch the Baht drop to the dollars. The Baht can to 60 to dollar.

I am not so sure about 1THB=60$

but certainly it will not remain as it is now.

(that is if $ still exists)

meanwhile, exports are getting another hit ...

Thailand fears sugar defaults

Indonesia faces surplus

Reuters, 10/24/2008

Fears that buyers will default on sugar shipments are worrying sellers in Thailand, Asia's largest exporter,

while the arrival of more raws is causing stocks to pile up in neighboring Indonesia.

Thailand exports sugar to Indonesia, Japan, Taiwan, the Middle East and Europe.

Soft commodities have been hit by fund selling on worries a global recession could cut demand for coffee, cocoa, sugar and rubber.

so, rice and sugar exports are already in trouble.

Big exporters cry loud enough

and the baht will lower to the dollar, magically,

40 again is not unreasonable.

The Dollar is having a shock right now, but it's being dealt with.

Get Bush out an Obama in and a climatized a bit, the perception of the Dollar will ALSO start to mellow.

Bush has made many worldwide root for a weaker dollar, in the phsycological hope that this means

a weak Bush too. Not. He also didn't talk the dollar up either, he has reasons.

Once his buddies have repatriated their dodgy off shore gains,

And jiggered the banking system to favor them when they do,

Oh, oh, more cashing into the country, good, good, give them an tax break...

The dollar will magically climb again also.

I think this has been a long term set up, along with the recent artificial Oil Price fandango,

that Bush's cronies are profiting off of. There are dirt fingers DEEP in those pies.

Right up to the toenails...

And they are ALSO weeding out a few financial enemies at the same time.

Bring in cash at a weak dollar, consolidate the players,

buy distressed assets back dirt cheap, have the government help,

and get back to business with a STRONG Dollar.

Pure evil for sure.

Thaksin is a amatur duffer in comparison.

[Johpa]

Thailand's economy will be virtually wiped out if 2% of the population will continue (with support of the highest people) to hold the country randsom. Therefore the comments are misplaced and thus absurd, Thailand will not escape a meltdown, the new tourist figures will speak for itself. The new investment figures will tell all of the story. Banks cannot even find customers for their credit nowadays that is even worse.

THis is not a very intelligent statement. Thaksin and his cronies are the core of the Thai-Chinese businessmen who brought this country to ruin 1987 and are at again.

First, it is a much smaller percentage of the population that controls the Kingdom. I believe there was study done around 2002 by economists from MIT that found that over 50% of the nation's wealth was in the hand of around 15 families and similar numbers held true for other Southeast Asian countries. This is even more concentrated than wealth in the US where the upper 1% of the population has as much accumulated wealth as the lower 95% combined. However I would guess that the upper 2% in most countries defines the political donor class that has direct access to political favors.

Thaksin and the extended Shinawat family were not core members of the traditional Bangkok Thai-Chinese power, they were outsiders who happened, either by luck or smarts, to see the profit potential of new forms of information and telecommunications technology and relatively suddenly became members of that top class, the upper 1/10% who are the political owner class.

[dumball]

For us Brits 13 pounds used to buy you 1,000 Baht, now the same 1,000 baht cost us 17 pounds, thats a mighty big difference !!

This is going to force a lot of retirees out of LOS, or put many who thought they could retire here off.

Unless they want to lose the income from the British Ex-pats they are really gonna have to do some kind of re-think on this.

Everyone that I know (myself included) are taking really big hits on their savings offshore...and it could get a lot lot worse IMHO

Some that retired here early will have no choice but to go back and replensih their funds by working, so thats a lot of baht they won't be spending here anytime soon.

I know that indeed, the usd and the pounds are worth diddely atm.

The euro is the only pretty stable coin you can have atm.

On the otherhand, ive read it true a bit. Im not a banker, and i find it kindah humor. That there ppl here managing to talk like a banker or account while the live in a poor country like Thailand. Giving a piece of there mind (Like the guy that goes beserk here bullocks ectra move out of here to Laos)

Then go...or better yet go back to were you came from. You will be of WORSE...or else you would not even choose to live here to begin with. In my country i can make barely a living for myself with the taxes i pay there. Im happy were i am, you all should do the samething instead of bugging youreself with this crap.

Then you all should have stay in youre country were the economy is ALLOT worse perspective wise, then here ! Were here to benefit from the "freedom" we have here and easy living that most of us don't have in there own country.

So shutup,...eat you pad thai, drink you mei kong cheapass whiskey. And enjoy the rest of youre life..

Yes MR wanabee Thai , we are Waiing to you honorable sir , i personaly do not eat pad thai or drink mai-kong cheapass whisky and i am enjoying the rest of my life , do not know why you got your knickers in such a knot over some-one elses OPINION .The country i came here from is far better off in many ways than Thailand , but the snow was getting a lot too high to shovel , but i think that would be far better than all the BS one has to shovel in Thailand , What freedom are you refering to ?

[Denim]

Interesting story, while the PAD is melting down Thailand to such an extent that no freedom and no wealth is left (Except for their Chinese friends of course).

Thailand's economy will be virtually wiped out if 2% of the population will continue (with support of the highest people) to hold the country randsom. Therefore the comments are misplaced and thus absurd, Thailand will not escape a meltdown, the new tourist figures will speak for itself. The new investment figures will tell all of the story. Banks cannot even find customers for their credit nowadays that is even worse.

THis is not a very intelligent statement. Thaksin and his cronies are the core of the Thai-Chinese businessmen who brought this country to ruin 1987 and are at again.

1987 WHAT??? Was Thaksin in power during that period... hmm I dont think so the Democrates were in power in those days. Get your facts right before you make stupid comments like that. Taksin was in power from 2001 - 2006 by the way. Way off PADISTA.

Yes, it would be kind of ironic if after all the current troubles , the Somchai govournment was disolved and after the smoke had cleared, the democrats found themselves in the driving seat just in time for another recession.

Edited October 25, 2008 by Denim

[aaaaaa]

Sugar exports, maybe. But not rice.

well, I haven't imagined this

Govt to lose Bt8 billion on rice bidding

The Nation, Oct 25, 2008

The government will lose about Bt8 billion in next week's round of rice bidding, as the market price of white paddy rice has fallen to only Bt10,500 a tonne.

The projected loss is being blamed on the government establishing too high a guaranteed price for white paddy rice, Bt14,000 a tonne, in the latest price-intervention programme for the second crop. The government now has about 3.9 million tonnes of rice stockpiled...

The government will inevitably face huge losses from the bidding, because the market price for rice has decreased continuously following declines in prices of agricultural goods, said a rice-trader source who asked not to be named.

"The government will be unable to sell enough rice at Bt14,000 a kilogram to cover its costs, because the market price is much lower. It is estimated the government will lose about Bt2,000 a tonne in releasing the stockpiles," said the source.

Rice export price cut

Oct 23, 2008

Thailand, the world's biggest rice exporter, cut the benchmark export price of white rice 3.2 per cent to the lowest since March 26, says the Thai Rice Exporters Association.

The price of 100-per-cent grade-B rice was set at US$664 (Bt22,900) per tonne, down from $686 last week. The rice fetched an averaged $336 a tonne last October, the association said. The price of 25-per-cent white rice was set at $522 a tonne, down from $543 a

week earlier and $313 last October. The association holds a meeting each Wednesday to set prices. - Bloomberg

Thai Rice May Fall To $400 PMT: Experts

Oct 23,2008

According to global rice experts, Thailand's benchmark rice price could fall a further 40 % to around $400 PMT by December or January

because of rising global supplies and a lack of demand from top buyers.

Thailand, the world's top rice exporter, has not signed any deals to export rice from the upcoming crop as buyers were postponing their purchases due to rapidly declining prices.

so, what does that mean? to me it means - either Thailand reduces the prices further, or buyers do not buy.

either way - Thailand loses money.

I think better if Thailand doesn't reduce price and simply stockpiles it and waits for a while - price should go up again I think.

coz oil price will go up again, that's sure ! and accordingly all food prices will go up again too.

S.E. Asian nations adopt 10-year Rice Action Plan

10/25/2008

Edited October 25, 2008 by aaaaaa