Stockmarket Trading, Forex, Commodities.

[Chivas]

Where's the markets going Paulo1 ??

[Paulo1]

Where's the markets going Paulo1 ??

Sell on EURUSD 1.4380 and above , stop 100 pips, target 1 =146 pips Target 2 = 200 pips plus. Could go 600 pips lower in my wishful thinking mind.

Markets, where are they going.

Bond Market looks to be topping out high 139.27, cuurent 136.31 support 135.16. Directing relates to the JPY high 1.3127 current 1.3047 support, 1.2800 and 1.2500 zone., and am seeiing divergence OBV. on balance volume on the Jpy weekly. I expect the high to be put in this week or next week if has not already. . I am looking to sell Yens on this confirmation. Aware BOJ may internene.

Dow could test 12000 , I suspect if it gest there it will fail and bearish bias will increase. That happening I will be selling most indices. FX sells will be AUD, NZD, and CAD and whatever presents itself. Interesting price action on the EURCHF, keep a close eye on this pair. Also rumour of Swiss intervention.

Last week was a tough week to trade FX, i only had three trades selling AUD, NZD and i sold the EURCHF at 1.06629, that was a huge trade.

Market volitility and increased 30% over the past week. Becareful out there.

[Paulo1]

Sell on EURUSD 1.4380 and above , stop 100 pips, target 1 =146 pips Target 2 = 200 pips plus. Could go 600 pips lower in my wishful thinking mind.

Entries were. 4380, and 4395. have sold this position at 1.4337 booking 60 ish, holdg the other position .

NZDUSD, buy limit 8345 stop 8250 t1 8490 t2 8560

Have sold EY also at 110.27 stop now 110.21 current price 109.90. have taken 50% profits

Edited August 17, 2011 by Paulo1

[Paulo1]

Where's the markets going Paulo1 ??

Sell on EURUSD 1.4380 and above , stop 100 pips, target 1 =146 pips Target 2 = 200 pips plus. Could go 600 pips lower in my wishful thinking mind.

Markets, where are they going.

Bond Market looks to be topping out high 139.27, cuurent 136.31 support 135.16. Directing relates to the JPY high 1.3127 current 1.3047 support, 1.2800 and 1.2500 zone., and am seeiing divergence OBV. on balance volume on the Jpy weekly. I expect the high to be put in this week or next week if has not already. . I am looking to sell Yens on this confirmation. Aware BOJ may internene.

Dow could test 12000 , I suspect if it gest there it will fail and bearish bias will increase. That happening I will be selling most indices. FX sells will be AUD, NZD, and CAD and whatever presents itself. Interesting price action on the EURCHF, keep a close eye on this pair. Also rumour of Swiss intervention.

Last week was a tough week to trade FX, i only had three trades selling AUD, NZD and i sold the EURCHF at 1.06629, that was a huge trade.

Market volitility and increased 30% over the past week. Becareful out there.

One of my best leading indicators for price reversals.

What I am referring to is the value of out of the money options as correlated to the underlying market's price action.

In the past when markets have traded in "parabolic" trends, such as we have now in Gold and 30 Year Treasury bonds, when the market goes up I start to follow the pricing action of certain strike prices in options. In my 20 plus years of trading markets I have observed what goes straight up generally reverses over time. As such last night Bonds rallied to a high of 140 28 and the October 132, 130 and even the deep out of the money 126 put options did not move in fact they are positive as I type this when bonds are up 3 ticks in premarket trading. Puts should be down when markets move up. They are not.

Granted there is not a lot of volume in the night session, but someone is buying, not selling puts when the underlying market is rallying.This suggests to me that we are potentially near a top in Bonds.

As for Gold we traded to 1882.8 and here again deep out of the money put options were holding yesterdays prices and in fact the December 1575 & 1550 puts are holding value. In fact, the 1575 put is trading at 13.2, which translates to $1320.00. That's a lot of money for that option. This suggests to me that perhaps the power traders do not believe there is much further upside in these markets and or perhaps equities might stabilize after today's option expiration. I say that because both Bonds and Gold have acted as a refuge from risky stock exposure.

Even the Yen made a higher high from the last 5 trading sessions and the Sept. 127.00 put options UPTICKED on some decent volume of 175 contracts. The Yen is up to 130.95 and these options are at 32 points or $400. These expire on Sept. 7^th. Yesterday they were at 27 when the Yen was at 130.50-130.62.

Silver has finally made its move last week , the breakout was confirmed on the 4hr at 39.22 and my entry was 39.

Edited August 20, 2011 by Paulo1

[Chivas]

An eventful week again to say the least !!

Managed to come out of week unscathed with small(net) 24 pip profit on closed positions. Am holding a Short position on Gold which is 66 points adrift at close.

Interested to read your notes Paulo1 that your opinion of the Power players in that you believe Gold could be near the top.

Quite unbelievable where its gone since I closed last long position at 1618 as thought it had topped what less than 3 weeks ago !!

[Paulo1]

An eventful week again to say the least !!

Managed to come out of week unscathed with small(net) 24 pip profit on closed positions. Am holding a Short position on Gold which is 66 points adrift at close.

Interested to read your notes Paulo1 that your opinion of the Power players in that you believe Gold could be near the top.

Quite unbelievable where its gone since I closed last long position at 1618 as thought it had topped what less than 3 weeks ago !!

Hi Chivas,

Last week was madness once againg trying to be on the correct side of volitility. In all I had a good week, mostly traded gold and silver longs from the 15 minute and 5 minute charts. So no 4hr trades were posted.

Gold has gapped up this morning and am think a move towards 1925 mark. Silver which i am currently long from 39.00 is now trading at 43.50, and has also gapped up.

I am bullish gold, however i do believe a big correction is not far from happening, It just does not make technical sense that it will just keep going straight up and the last gap up on the opening 8/8/11 at the 1680 zone produced the present move higher. The weekly close was very strong also.

Price zone to be aware of. 1877.65/71, 1879.13 support, 1850.42 1834.55 and 1820 zone. And a test of 1794/1800 should validate a move higher.

When i am looking at macro markets such as options, bonds etc I am taking a 1 to 2 week view.

[Paulo1]

NZDUSD Weekly setup. Looking to sell on the monthly close. Aorund the 8400 zone, 7950 support.

AUDUSD looking to sel 1.07750. Both trades are pending news, sentiment and price action . Just a couple of trades to be aware

[Chivas]

After opening all down the Indicies have moved into positive territory as I type. Gold has moved off highs and quite frankly would personally like to see that slight correction downwards that you spoke of Paulo !!

Am close to stop as I stop (though was very close earlier) No intention of moving it either.

Believe we will see a bit of a bounce today on Indicies and am long on Nikkie and Dax with currently locked in (small) profits and looking to move stop up as we go, with no target set.

[Paulo1]

but limit NZDJPY 63.23/30 stop 62.51 t1 64.15 t2 64.67

[Paulo1]

Higher risk players only.

BUY Limit CADJPY 78.011 stop 77.41. T1, 78.70. T2, 7910

[Paulo1]

Gold is getting tired . looking for sells, have 15 min , 30 min and 1hr sell confirmations. need that 4hr one. 1850 here we come

[Paulo1]

Sold silver 43.48 target 42 stop 43.80

Target 42.044

Edited August 22, 2011 by Paulo1

[Chivas]

Gold is getting tired . looking for sells, have 15 min , 30 min and 1hr sell confirmations. need that 4hr one. 1850 here we come

Now 1859 and still in the game from previous short...

[Paulo1]

Silver trade stopped at breakeven.

NZDJPY and CADJPY , both trades reversed , still holding .

10-yr Treasury yields are testing support at 2% , 50 yr low.

Dax 2010 low of 5400 is being tested. A break here should see 4500.

Cac 3000 being support, a break here look for 2500.

Nasdaq has broke support 2050 and opens up the 1900 zone.

Dow Large buy volume, failure of support will see a fall to 9500 zone.

[Naam]

Gold is getting tired... 1850 here we come

1908 here we go

[Chivas]

Gold is getting tired... 1850 here we come

1908 here we go

Indeed and I for one was stopped out with large losses-dropped 15 dollars since you typed but saw that yesterday several times...

2000 by months end ??

Edited August 23, 2011 by Chivas

[Paulo1]

Gold, 4hr . Have hit 3 resistance zones, trendline , 1910.23 and 1913 30. 4hr shooting star, had the same yesterday. Daily pivot support 1885.57 and solid support through 1819 to 1843. The daily trend very strong still.

Chart attched is a possiblility.

[Paulo1]

XAUUSD short triggered at 1900 stop 1914 target 1=1858

[Paulo1]

Higher risk players only.

BUY Limit CADJPY 78.011 stop 77.41. T1, 78.70. T2, 7910

This trade has almost been stopped out. I have taken a loss recovery strategy and added a buy at 77.54 , target breakeven @ 77. 78 stop 13 pips.

NZDJPY have closed 50% at 63.75 plus 60 ish stop moved to 63.31

XAUUSD short from 1900 sold 50% @ 1880.09 stop now at 1898.30

[Paulo1]

XAUUSD short triggered at 1900 stop 1914 target 1=1858

Target Hit and some more. About time i got a gold call correct.

CADJPY was closed minus 43

NZDJPY closed plus 60

[churchill]

Good call in Gold - it started moving down just as you posted your trade

[Tomissan]

There seems to be several intelligent people on this forum in regards to stock market, forex, etc.,

Can someone point me in an entry level direction for buying 'penny stocks'? I would like to take some of the profits I've made from gold and buy some penny stocks. I know very little about this area is why I'm asking for advice such as: 1. a good broker, 2. pitfalls to look out for, 3. recommendations, etc.

thanks in advance

[Chivas]

XAUUSD short triggered at 1900 stop 1914 target 1=1858

Target Hit and some more. About time i got a gold call correct.

CADJPY was closed minus 43

NZDJPY closed plus 60

Yes good call-missed it myself as stopped out 12 hour previous. Pity.

See Moodys have downgraded Japan's credit rating so Nikkei down sharply asia time.

Actively watching the Dax-noted Paulo1's offering that a break through of 5400 could lead to 4500.

Edited August 24, 2011 by Chivas

[Chivas]

There seems to be several intelligent people on this forum in regards to stock market, forex, etc.,

Can someone point me in an entry level direction for buying 'penny stocks'? I would like to take some of the profits I've made from gold and buy some penny stocks. I know very little about this area is why I'm asking for advice such as: 1. a good broker, 2. pitfalls to look out for, 3. recommendations, etc.

thanks in advance

Some guys better qualified in the finance column than me to answer however I actively bought and sold penny shares in the mid 1980's using a publication called "Stockmarket Confidential" in the UK.

I was moderatly successful with it-I believe the publishing house still produces a similar "tip-sheet weekly"

[Paulo1]

There seems to be several intelligent people on this forum in regards to stock market, forex, etc.,

Can someone point me in an entry level direction for buying 'penny stocks'? I would like to take some of the profits I've made from gold and buy some penny stocks. I know very little about this area is why I'm asking for advice such as: 1. a good broker, 2. pitfalls to look out for, 3. recommendations, etc.

thanks in advance

Where are you located? And which market would you want to trade in?

[Paulo1]

Good call in Gold - it started moving down just as you posted your trade

Thanks,

It moved from higher from the post price 1897.52 to 1905.88, and was triggered @ sell limit 1900, then began its fall,

[Chivas]

Opened a short on Nikkei earlier and has moved 125 points to the good-have moved stop up close but feel theres more mileage when official European and Uk markets open over next 90 minutes.

[Paulo1]

Opened a short on Nikkei earlier and has moved 125 points to the good-have moved stop up close but feel theres more mileage when official European and Uk markets open over next 90 minutes.

What price did you get in at?

[Chivas]

Opened a short on Nikkei earlier and has moved 125 points to the good-have moved stop up close but feel theres more mileage when official European and Uk markets open over next 90 minutes.

What price did you get in at?

8753

Closed on automation at 110 profit.Did'nt go further and fell back slightly to stop.

Edited August 24, 2011 by Chivas

[Paulo1]

Opened a short on Nikkei earlier and has moved 125 points to the good-have moved stop up close but feel theres more mileage when official European and Uk markets open over next 90 minutes.

What price did you get in at?

8753

Closed on automation at 110 profit.Did'nt go further and fell back slightly to stop.

Nice.