Stockmarket Trading, Forex, Commodities.

[Chivas]

Down for the week because of a stopped out Gold trade with very wide stop which promptly reversed but thats life !!

11 out of 14 trades to the good, so average high and no complaints.

US finished the week strongly despite lacklustre performance from Bernencke so sentiment for recovery is there.

Expect strong Indicie performance on the back of any good news next week.

All Indicies opened strongly as expected but not sure where the good news exactly is but will take it nonetheless.

Have opened week with 60 pip locked into Dax profit with stop right up to 10 points trailing.

Fell back and closed at plus 60.

Await US market direction for possible further trade.

had you been long over the weekend or did you short the opening or how did you lock in 60 points today chivas?

Not on this occasion no-I was up waiting for my Market Maker to reopen which the Dax opened flat and moved up to 78 points higher at one point-at 70 points plus I moved stop up to within 10 but eventually fell back.

Later in day profit would have doubled as well.Happy with 60 though as always.

[Chivas]

Am looking at Indicies 03.18 UK time and all positive at the moment.

Hang Seng has pushed forward futher than I anticipated albeit on the back of Wall St last night.

Looking good at the moment for small push further forward on Dax on opening-will take view at 0630.

Zero negative news at time of posting

Edited August 30, 2011 by Chivas

[midas]

Real People Say "Screw You" To The Markets

" All that's left is the computers. The humans have gone home. True liquidity and participation has ended. The people have given up. This is not an isolated incident - as I write this I'm seeing it literally minute-by-minute, and it's been very common all month. A few minutes ago I saw seven contracts on the bid at the money. Seven - at 9:57 (ET) in the morning.

The fraud, the phony bids and offers and the high-frequency ripoffs have driven everyone away.

Go ahead politicians, tell us how important "Wall Street" is to the economy and to you. Let the thieves and liars continue to pollute the markets and screw everyone. Volatility is as high as it is precisely because people are tired of getting buttraped and after a few instances of it they simply say "screw this", take their money and go home. "

http://www.market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=193037

[Paulo1]

Real People Say "Screw You" To The Markets

" All that's left is the computers. The humans have gone home. True liquidity and participation has ended. The people have given up. This is not an isolated incident - as I write this I'm seeing it literally minute-by-minute, and it's been very common all month. A few minutes ago I saw seven contracts on the bid at the money. Seven - at 9:57 (ET) in the morning.

The fraud, the phony bids and offers and the high-frequency ripoffs have driven everyone away.

Go ahead politicians, tell us how important "Wall Street" is to the economy and to you. Let the thieves and liars continue to pollute the markets and screw everyone. Volatility is as high as it is precisely because people are tired of getting buttraped and after a few instances of it they simply say "screw this", take their money and go home. "

http://www.market-ti...www?post=193037

What money, by that stage the Banks, Governments and so forth have robbed us all....lol

I have posted this prior.

[Paulo1]

Over recent days have sold the euraud, eurnzd and eurcad, all trades in good shape.

Gold. From a high of 1912 to a low of 1702 in just a couple of days. Fundamentally nothing has changed. The bull is still in charge. The fall we witnessed was just the market had gone to far to fast, which i wrote about previously here. If confidence in the equity markets starts to increase we should see investors looking at reversing gold positions in favour of equities. I believe quality gold mining stocks are due for some catch-up to the price of gold and have started aquiring some via the ASX.

As inflattion starts to pick up in the USA the "inflation hedge" trade wil gather momentum. Key being NFP. Market is looking to add 75,00 and Unemployment rate to remain at 9.1%.

Gold chart ranges. Upside 1920 and 1700 downside, Intraday zones being 1750 and 1850, momentum remains weak and expect lower prices in the short term. Support should hold at 1700 and have a january 2010 trendline at 1680 , a break below this would open up a deeper consolidiation. As much as i would love to see that i don't think so at this point. Major suppor lying at the 1550 and 1470 channel.

[GentlemanJim]

Anyone any thoughts on the USD/JPY ? Today the Yen sits around 76.5 can it remain or even strengthen more in the coming days or are the Japanese Government in a position where they must intervene, particularly as production data was down yet again? I guess this one is all about timing. Intervention must come soon i guess as the new PM/ex Finance minister has said sorting out the economy is his top priority. Can the dollar strengthen anytime soon or is the only way out for the yen a major intervention by the Gov? I made a handsome profit on this trade last week but it was only a temporary rise. All the variables now in play have me a little confused or perhaps a little reticent to commit. Any more thoughts?

Thanks again.

[ronz28]

I don't trade currencies but it appears the yen is affected by seasonal matters, I have heard a reason for this August - October pattern but can't confirm it. Of course it may be different this time.

http://www.equityclock.com/charts/japanese-yen-futures-jy-seasonal-chart/

[GentlemanJim]

I don't trade currencies but it appears the yen is affected by seasonal matters, I have heard a reason for this August - October pattern but can't confirm it. Of course it may be different this time.

http://www.equityclo...seasonal-chart/

ronz28

Thanks for that, I have never seen that before. Fascinating! Now I guess the cool thing is to find out why. That will be me all day on google

[Paulo1]

I don't trade currencies but it appears the yen is affected by seasonal matters, I have heard a reason for this August - October pattern but can't confirm it. Of course it may be different this time.

http://www.equityclo...seasonal-chart/

Everything you trade is seasonal. Attached is some analysis of the past 5 years, Buys and Sells. These are for this September.

As you say it may be different this year.

If you wanr futures and stocks i can add them for you.

Edited August 31, 2011 by Paulo1

[Paulo1]

Anyone any thoughts on the USD/JPY ? Today the Yen sits around 76.5 can it remain or even strengthen more in the coming days or are the Japanese Government in a position where they must intervene, particularly as production data was down yet again? I guess this one is all about timing. Intervention must come soon i guess as the new PM/ex Finance minister has said sorting out the economy is his top priority. Can the dollar strengthen anytime soon or is the only way out for the yen a major intervention by the Gov? I made a handsome profit on this trade last week but it was only a temporary rise. All the variables now in play have me a little confused or perhaps a little reticent to commit. Any more thoughts?

Thanks again.

My bias for the yen is down, don,t mean a long way down either.. Its present in a sideways consolidation phase, high 77.50 low 76.35 , stronger channel action at these zones, high 77 and lows 76.45. Trend down. Daily S1 76.56 is very strong , presentl price failing at the number, Daily pivot at 76.26. tight ranges no signal, Or can risk the contrarian approach and set longs with a stop 75.70 area. This pair is not a great pair to trade and would suggest not trading it. Perhaps better looking at EURJPY, and other crosses/

Edited August 31, 2011 by Paulo1

[flying]

Gold chart ranges. Upside 1920 and 1700 downside, Intraday zones being 1750 and 1850, momentum remains weak and expect lower prices in the short term. Support should hold at 1700 and have a january 2010 trendline at 1680 , a break below this would open up a deeper consolidiation. As much as i would love to see that i don't think so at this point. Major suppor lying at the 1550 and 1470 channel.

Your ideas are in line with a very good cyclist I follow.

He has the start of gold's decline from its expected parabolic rise in September.

precipitated by collateral issues of PIIGS bonds

However he also see's it as a temporary drop until January.

Then the seeded inflation will start to take off with a declining main and a crashing bond market.

Just something I find interesting & not meant as advice to trade on

[Paulo1]

Gold chart ranges. Upside 1920 and 1700 downside, Intraday zones being 1750 and 1850, momentum remains weak and expect lower prices in the short term. Support should hold at 1700 and have a january 2010 trendline at 1680 , a break below this would open up a deeper consolidiation. As much as i would love to see that i don't think so at this point. Major suppor lying at the 1550 and 1470 channel.

Your ideas are in line with a very good cyclist I follow.

He has the start of gold's decline from its expected parabolic rise in September.

precipitated by collateral issues of PIIGS bonds

However he also see's it as a temporary drop until January.

Then the seeded inflation will start to take off with a declining main and a crashing bond market.

Just something I find interesting & not meant as advice to trade on

Am happy to hear . I don't read alot of other peoples reports/predictions etc as it can distract me from my own work, but its always good to hear other people opinions at times, I just try to understand the human emotion and sentiment behind the charts with a little bit of fundimental work to validate it.

Bonds are certianly interesting at present.

[Chivas]

Paulo1,

You mentioned previously about opening a 2 year postion on Silver.

Any further thoughts on this ?? An entry level perhaps ?? Would you place a very wide stop ??

Quiet day yesterday for myself-had a Dax trade in profit but kept the stop up only to entry level and fell back subsequently.

Have locked in 55 points today again on Dax with a 15 point trailing stop-Wall St expected to open higher so will be monitoring opening.

Edited August 31, 2011 by Chivas

[Chivas]

Major Indicies down sharply on further recession fears. Not a time to be venturing into the market Imho.

Am not sure for exact reason why but only for 2nd time in 4 years of using Tradefair my market maker that just after Wall St had officially opened thursday the markets rose so violently that trading was suspended.(On Tradefair that is)

The Dax went from minus 104 points in a split second to minus 40 where it was suspended and then reopened/closed 4 times in a one minute cycle and eventually drew level before falling right back.

Likewise the FTSE Wall St Nikkei and Cac did likewise.

I still cant see the reason for the prolific rise (although am trading without all my usual aides)

Edited September 2, 2011 by Chivas

[flying]

Major Indicies down sharply on further recession fears. Not a time to be venturing into the market Imho.

Tomorrow 9/2/11 is the jobs report in the US.

[Chivas]

Major Indicies down sharply on further recession fears. Not a time to be venturing into the market Imho.

Tomorrow 9/2/11 is the jobs report in the US.

Yes indeed-on this occasion Reuters are giving no real indication as to which way it will go either.

Decidely neutral at the moment.

Edited-which had been updated and poor figures are suggested.

Edited September 2, 2011 by Chivas

[flying]

Yes indeed-on this occasion Reuters are giving no real indication as to which way it will go either.

Decidely neutral at the moment.

Yes & this time the market did not seem to price in much of

a indication either.

[Paulo1]

Hi Chivas,

Just setting up the Silver and Gold trades long term strategy from present price zone.. Will send entries and the trade plan through oncecompleted. Personally, i would love to see another significant retracement. present price is 1852.43, if 1hr close is above 1850, may be reason to set long entries.

S&P 500, Expect a test od 1250/60 before a retreat to 1100, breach of 1100 would find support at the 2010 low of 1000 , and expect it to go even lower.Happy days if you are short.

Gold, support at $1750, short retracement from resistance at $1850 would be a bullish sign, suggesting an upward breakout. Recovery above $1900 would test $2000 and even much higher.

YEN , Is testing support at 76.50 Failure of support would offer a medium-term target of 73. Intervention by the BOJ has had limited effect.

Presently holding all Euro shorts from monday, Adding the EURGBP last night at 8813

Silver and Gold are presently have a run , suggests bad NFP report.

Edited September 2, 2011 by Paulo1

[flying]

Silver and Gold are presently have a run , suggests bad NFP report.

Yes was just watching that myself the last hour or two.

[flying]

Silver and Gold are presently have a run , suggests bad NFP report.

Yes was just watching that myself the last hour or two.

Well the morning after hindsight shows those rising

gold futures really were tip off that the jobs report

was going to be weak.

[Chivas]

Silver and Gold are presently have a run , suggests bad NFP report.

Yes was just watching that myself the last hour or two.

Well the morning after hindsight shows those rising

gold futures really were tip off that the jobs report

was going to be weak.

Wouldn't be surprised if it Gaps to over 1900 on reopening.

[flying]

Wouldn't be surprised if it Gaps to over 1900 on reopening.

I agree + next week will have more bad news.

Right after closing today Reuters made official the news of law suits against a 17 banks & Goldman Sachs.

Also Obama giving another speech next week about job creation

Add to that Greece & the Euro & it could be a interesting week.

[Paulo1]

Open timeframe for trade is 1 week at this point.

EURUSD is presently trading at 1.3912 bid. Preferred sell entries near 1.4170. Key support is 1.3836. An break of this number will open up a target around the 1.2900 zone over the coming weeks.

Am already is this trade and have sell stops at 1.3820 area.

Intraday zones. 1.3946/50 resistance, support, 1.3874, 1.3833. 1.3805/00.

Weekly trendline from 6/6/10 connecting 9/1/2010 has been broken and may serve as resistance 1.3952

[Paulo1]

http://www.mynewslet...tter/1411015057

This is an interesting read.

Edited September 9, 2011 by Paulo1

[Paulo1]

ASX code. WHL , Oil play. I forgot to post this cheapy. I think its worth looking into. I do own this stock.

[flying]

http://www.mynewslet...tter/1411015057

This is an interesting read.

That was a good read thanks!

You should post it in the gold thread too.

I bet many would enjoy it

[Paulo1]

GPBCHF buy 1.50899 Stop 1.5037 target 1 is 76 pips and 2 is 110 pips.

Bid is now 5093

Sorry , thats the GBPAUD

Edited September 9, 2011 by Paulo1

[Paulo1]

Close above 1. 5110 is the key.

[Paulo1]

Open timeframe for trade is 1 week at this point.

EURUSD is presently trading at 1.3912 bid. Preferred sell entries near 1.4170. Key support is 1.3836. An break of this number will open up a target around the 1.2900 zone over the coming weeks.

Am already is this trade and have sell stops at 1.3820 area.

Intraday zones. 1.3946/50 resistance, support, 1.3874, 1.3833. 1.3805/00.

Weekly trendline from 6/6/10 connecting 9/1/2010 has been broken and may serve as resistance 1.3952

1.3836 has been broken and and a 1 hr closing below . This signals the start of what i would think to be a big move south.

If anyone takes this trade from the Daily , stops will be 250 pips, 4hr stops 115 pips. I am looking at this trade with the veiw of trying to sell rallies.

[Paulo1]

GPBCHF buy 1.50899 Stop 1.5037 target 1 is 76 pips and 2 is 110 pips.

Bid is now 5093

Sorry , thats the GBPAUD

Stop moved to 1.5102. Current bid 1.5156