Stockmarket Trading, Forex, Commodities.

[Paulo1]

Still holding Cable Paulo........

I owe you a bottle of Bolly for that one........!!

Might give a bit back this week, with resistance at 1.6260 and 6300. If thet get cleared on dollar weakness should head to 6500..

Could also be worth looking to sell on a failed top at the above numbers. Sell at 1.6250 stop 1.6326. and the target be around 5920 ish.

Keep an eye on all Yen crosses , some important zone were broken.

USDJPY weekly set-up, buying at 77.63 stop 76.94 , lower trendline confluence with weekly hammer low. First target if triggered 79.66, Key support layer is 75.50 to 76.20, And once that zone is broken when the USD is worth less than toilet paper it will tank to 60.

AUDUSD. Counter Trend sell limit at 1.05755 stop 1.06290 and sell stop at 1.0521 Stop 1.0580

GBPJPY watching 125.50/126.18 and to buy. and 127.35 will add pending Price Action (pa)

Plenty of good setups across a multiple of currencies.

AUDUSD was triggered at sell stop 1.0521 Also hold from. 1.0550 , Closed 50% of position at 1.04415 Stop at 1.0503. Keeping the stop wide at present. Looking at 1.0420 , close below that will open up 1.0390 then 0360.

GY was entered at 127.28. Reason for entry was a break above daily highs 127.25 . Current price is at 127.76 and finding resistance of the weekly TL from 162.900 to 143.460

[kblaze]

hey Paulo1 thanks for these updates, I havent been trading forex much this past year as ive been trying to focus on studying for my cfa, but im lookin to get back into it soon, will be referencing this thread often!

[Paulo1]

hey Paulo1 thanks for these updates, I havent been trading forex much this past year as ive been trying to focus on studying for my cfa, but im lookin to get back into it soon, will be referencing this thread often!

No probs.

There is alot of info on here, but its all over the place. If you have any questions on TA , just ask here or PM me.

[Paulo1]

Still holding Cable Paulo........

I owe you a bottle of Bolly for that one........!!

Might give a bit back this week, with resistance at 1.6260 and 6300. If thet get cleared on dollar weakness should head to 6500..

Could also be worth looking to sell on a failed top at the above numbers. Sell at 1.6250 stop 1.6326. and the target be around 5920 ish.

Keep an eye on all Yen crosses , some important zone were broken.

USDJPY weekly set-up, buying at 77.63 stop 76.94 , lower trendline confluence with weekly hammer low. First target if triggered 79.66, Key support layer is 75.50 to 76.20, And once that zone is broken when the USD is worth less than toilet paper it will tank to 60.

AUDUSD. Counter Trend sell limit at 1.05755 stop 1.06290 and sell stop at 1.0521 Stop 1.0580

GBPJPY watching 125.50/126.18 and to buy. and 127.35 will add pending Price Action (pa)

Plenty of good setups across a multiple of currencies.

AUDUSD was triggered at sell stop 1.0521 Also hold from. 1.0550 , Closed 50% of position at 1.04415 Stop at 1.0503. Keeping the stop wide at present. Looking at 1.0420 , close below that will open up 1.0390 then 0360.

GY was entered at 127.28. Reason for entry was a break above daily highs 127.25 . Current price is at 127.76 and finding resistance of the weekly TL from 162.900 to 143.460

Cable update. Starting 3rd day of consolidation at resisitance 1.6270 , intraday support 1.6216 and 2 lower daily trendlines running from 1.5489 (2/8/12) joining 1,5770 showing support 1.6111. Next TL is from low of 1.5825 joining 1.5958 , price is currently testing this TL at 1.6238 on the 4hr chart. Upside number to watch for a move higher is a daily close above 6314.

EURUSD has showing weakness at 1.3111 (1.3000) and the high of 3168. has tested this twice and currently presents a lower close doji. Weekly support is 1.2988.. Sell entry zone is 1.3079 to 3145 with a stop at 3181. The target on this trade could be previous daily key support at 1.2314 about 700 pips down. It is also very possible we could consolidate between low of 1.2988 and and 3475 which is the previous consolidation zone .

AUDUSD , expect a move higher today, reason daily close and 4hr candle setup displaying hammer lows at support number posted yersterday 1.0420, Long entry zones 1.0448,

1.0425 stop 1.0405 target 1.0518 .

GY, trade still open for a move higher , stop in the money at 127.344. current price 127.95, weekly chart looks good for a move higher, however volitility could test yesterdays low of 127.44 and a break above 128.14 could see a move to 131.50.

[Paulo1]

AUDUSD triggered long at 1.0425 stop 1.0404.

[Paulo1]

GBPJPY buy stop triggered at 128.35 current price 128.59 . Targets open. Currently holding buys positioned from lower positions. 127.28.

[Paulo1]

AUDUSD triggered long at 1.0425 stop 1.0404.

Stop moved to 1.04365 = 13 pips locked in and 43 pips profit in the market.

Edited September 19, 2012 by Paulo1

[Paulo1]

As to post #1050 USDJPY was triggered at 77.63 stop moved to 78.45 . 79.31 resistance.

[Paulo1]

Chivas.

GPBUSD , alias cable. If we get a daily close around current price at 1.6216 most likely signal a trend reversal. Will PM you on the strategy.

On the above senario my entry is 1.6235/70 and stop 6280.

[Paulo1]

Cable alias GBPUSD sell stop 6194 current price 6200

[Chivas]

Chivas.

GPBUSD , alias cable. If we get a daily close around current price at 1.6216 most likely signal a trend reversal. Will PM you on the strategy.

On the above senario my entry is 1.6235/70 and stop 6280.

Look forward to it.........

[Paulo1]

GBPJPY buy stop triggered at 128.35 current price 128.59 . Targets open. Currently holding buys positioned from lower positions. 127.28.

Cable alias GBPUSD sell stop 6194 current price 6200

6194 was triggered current loss in market 24 pips.

GY closed at 137 pip profit.

Holding AUDUSD and USDJPY. plus 60 at stop AU Plus 49.

[Paulo1]

GBPJPY buy stop triggered at 128.35 current price 128.59 . Targets open. Currently holding buys positioned from lower positions. 127.28.

Cable alias GBPUSD sell stop 6194 current price 6200

6194 was triggered current loss in market 24 pips.

GY closed at 137 pip profit.

Holding AUDUSD and USDJPY. plus 60 at stop AU Plus 49.

Stopped out in the money due to China pmi data.

Short the GY from daily open at 127.10. Have a pending sell limit at 127.64

Hold the cable trade from sell stop 1.6194 current prioce 6190 , 4hr support 6184 and a clean break of that will open 1.6075/65 , 6013, 5950 zones. One zone at a time.

USDJPY was closed on the daily false break out at 78.80.

AUDUSD looks to be heading to 1.0331 zone. Had a long trade yesterday that produced some nice pips with low risk, and still hold shorts from 1.05334 Chart attached. Green line entry, red stop.

[PenguinX]

Paulo, in the beginning of this thread you mention 100 pips per day as a kind of gold standard in profits.

I just got a demo account where AUDCAD spreads are currently at 80 pips, 120 for AUDNZD - is it normal? Their "stop loss" must differ from market price by at least 180 pips.

100 pips doesn't seem to fit in this scale of things. Has the standard changed or are these spreads highly unusual for a real trading account?

Also, 100 pips/day is an average of daily trades or an average of, say, weekly profits divided by days?

How long is your average trade? One day? One hour? Four hours? I guess it depends on a number of things but what's the general feeling - like "Oh, it takes me too long to close this trade", or "That was unexpectedly fast!"

What's the general "liquidity rate", for the lack of a better term, for various trades? Are there faster and slower moving pairs?

I've been dabbling in Thai equities for a couple of months and now trying to learn about forex.

I hope my questions are not annoying, I've been looking at forex for only an hour or so and this thread is too long to read through.

[Paulo1]

Paulo, in the beginning of this thread you mention 100 pips per day as a kind of gold standard in profits.

I just got a demo account where AUDCAD spreads are currently at 80 pips, 120 for AUDNZD - is it normal? Their "stop loss" must differ from market price by at least 180 pips.

100 pips doesn't seem to fit in this scale of things. Has the standard changed or are these spreads highly unusual for a real trading account?

Also, 100 pips/day is an average of daily trades or an average of, say, weekly profits divided by days?

How long is your average trade? One day? One hour? Four hours? I guess it depends on a number of things but what's the general feeling - like "Oh, it takes me too long to close this trade", or "That was unexpectedly fast!"

What's the general "liquidity rate", for the lack of a better term, for various trades? Are there faster and slower moving pairs?

I've been dabbling in Thai equities for a couple of months and now trying to learn about forex.

I hope my questions are not annoying, I've been looking at forex for only an hour or so and this thread is too long to read through.

If you were looking at the AUD during the China PMI announcement your spread could be anything. Always beware of spreads around announcements. Who do you have the demo with? Is the demo ECN and has a closing time consistent with New York Banker Close?

My spread on AUDCAD is presently 1.8 pip and AUDNZD 1.2

100 pips per day consistently is exceptional trading and come from 25yrs plus of pain. This should not be you target. Aim for 10 pips consistently, once you can do that add positions and repeat.

My average trade depends on the timeframe I trade. Lately due to market conditions the 8 day holds are giving the best results opposed to 1 day hold and close.

Liquidity rate is something that changes constantly, hence the reason spread increase with lower liquidity around announcements. Stick to the majors.

Equities vs FX, in FX you are trading against the banks (big boys) be careful.

I strongly suggest learn higher Time Frame analysis and don’t get caught up in lower time frame scalping. Unless you want to be in the same pond as 95% of FX traders that die after a average loss of 14k.

Be careful on forums, they are infected with novice traders with no clue. Develop yourself and understand your trading plan and psychology.

　

[PenguinX]

My demo is from AvaFX.com. the smallest spread here is for things like GBPUSD - at 40 pips.

From what is advertised on the net I was expecting something around 2 pips, instead I see 80.

My first trade immediately gave me 52 pips even minus that spread. I got sell at 1.01853 and buy at 1.01802, all in 24 minutes.

I understand that I can't judge anything by one trade only, but 10 pip seems like a really insignificant amount. I tried to place a pending buy order with my demo and it tells me my price must be at least 180 pips below. If I put a stop loss on my trade it's again 180 pips above or below market.

Getting 10 pips on this scale is an average 2% difference between profits and losses (10 and 180). Maybe this is right - the profit to loss ratio. I was expecting something higher, not a 100% successful trades, of course, but not 2% (51-49) either.

Re. time frame - with SET 8 day hold is like staring into abyss, not many stocks can consistently hold trends for this long. I haven't looked into FX charts yet but that AUDCAD went up and down for 1.5-2 months in the last two cycles. Is this a usual behavior? On that scale 8 days seems perfectly reasonable.

Oh, just noticed - 1 pip here is a 5th decimal point, not 4th, which makes all the above math useless.

Edited September 20, 2012 by PenguinX

[BlackJack]

anyone looking at

Bualuang as I see it on morningstar thailand as low risk and great rewards 55.6% less fees in a year!

Better than the bank

[PenguinX]

More on pips and leverage - they say that I myself should decide what is an acceptable loss for me so I can calculate my stop loss price. This isn't entirely true, though. Say I'm buying long and hoping the price goes up but it never goes up in a straight line, does it? It always drops a little, comes up a little, if my stop loss price is too close to market value then the first little drop is going to trigger it and I will never have a chance to wait for price to rise.

If I set stop loss too low I'll lose too much money, that is also clear.

What is an acceptable average to start calculations frome here? Is 100 leverage too high or too low? If it's okay, then how many pips down my stop loss should be, on average? What percentage of my tied up money is "okay" to lose relative to 100 leverage? What is it in actual pips?

I hope it's not too much to ask.

[Paulo1]

More on pips and leverage - they say that I myself should decide what is an acceptable loss for me so I can calculate my stop loss price. This isn't entirely true, though. Say I'm buying long and hoping the price goes up but it never goes up in a straight line, does it? It always drops a little, comes up a little, if my stop loss price is too close to market value then the first little drop is going to trigger it and I will never have a chance to wait for price to rise.

If I set stop loss too low I'll lose too much money, that is also clear.

What is an acceptable average to start calculations frome here? Is 100 leverage too high or too low? If it's okay, then how many pips down my stop loss should be, on average? What percentage of my tied up money is "okay" to lose relative to 100 leverage? What is it in actual pips?

I hope it's not too much to ask.

2% risk on your total account size is standard. I believe 100/1 leverage can be to much. try 15/1 or even 50/1. Your stoploss will be calculated on your position size in relation to the distance from entry. In general most pairs on a full contract (1 standard lot) has a value of $10 usd per pip. If you use a mini account your pip value is $1. Risk depends on your account size. And your abililty to accept a loss. Perhaps you should do some short courses. www.babypips.com

[Paulo1]

Looking a cable this week is could break higher

Paulo, please translate in a language i understand

Everything i am looking at is from the weekly and daily chart.

There is alot going on around the 1.5700 to 1.5800

200 sma 1.5715

100 sma 1.5750

A daily close above 1.5750/85 layer.

50% fib from 1.6300 high to 1.5267 low gives a 50% retracement to 1.5784 and that only being 16 pips from 5800, 5800 would be the key zone to watch.

Pattern is ascending triangle

Fridays close 1.6308. and produces a 500 pip trade. Did you enjoy that one Chivas?

And am now looking to sell limit at 1.6267 stop 1.6310. Entry is not set in concrete and will be watching price action from 6308 to 6200

Edited September 22, 2012 by Paulo1

[Chivas]

Looking a cable this week is could break higher

Paulo, please translate in a language i understand

Everything i am looking at is from the weekly and daily chart.

There is alot going on around the 1.5700 to 1.5800

200 sma 1.5715

100 sma 1.5750

A daily close above 1.5750/85 layer.

50% fib from 1.6300 high to 1.5267 low gives a 50% retracement to 1.5784 and that only being 16 pips from 5800, 5800 would be the key zone to watch.

Pattern is ascending triangle

Fridays close 1.6308. and produces a 500 pip trade. Did you enjoy that one Chivas?

And am now looking to sell limit at 1.6267 stop 1.6310. Entry is not set in concrete and will be watching price action from 6308 to 6200

Sweet music to my ears Paulo..........

This thread should be Pinned to the top of this Sub Section for all to Benefit from.........

Top Kudos to you for providing it. Unrivalled anywhere on Thaivisa........

[Paulo1]

The big question this week related to the US Dollar index (DX). Has it bottomed, is it retracing to 80/81 area (cuurrent 79.42) or is it going to consolidate? Looking at the EURUSD in relation 1.2950 and 1.3060 will be key this week. So my plan at present is to watch these zones. EU breaks 1.2950 on a close. 4hr and daily preferred. Will see a move to 1.2670 zone give or take.

Daily setup on Gold is worth watching also. Has a Shooting Star candle formation at resistance.

Alway be cautious on a Monday.

Edited September 24, 2012 by Paulo1

[PenguinX]

2% risk on your total account size is standard. I believe 100/1 leverage can be to much. try 15/1 or even 50/1. Your stoploss will be calculated on your position size in relation to the distance from entry. In general most pairs on a full contract (1 standard lot) has a value of $10 usd per pip. If you use a mini account your pip value is $1. Risk depends on your account size. And your abililty to accept a loss. Perhaps you should do some short courses. www.babypips.com

Calculating stoploss from MY numbers is understandable, but what about daily or even hourly chart fluctuations during overall up or down trends?

For example, on Friday EURUSD shot up by 100 pips but now it's still back on the downward trend that started on Sep 17, and there were other 50-60 pip jumps that didn't break the trend, too. On this scale setting stoploss at, say 30 pips, would be too disruptive, wouldn't it?

It seems I should either take bigger risks or go into faster trades where 50 pips move appears like a fortune.

So, my question is - what should be reasonable stop loss from the perspective of chart fluctuations for, say 8 day trades? For EURUSD last Friday anything below 20 pips would have triggered numerous stop losses in trading in both directions.

PS. I'm taking baby steps with babypips, probably still quite a few lessons away from calculating stop losses form pip values and such.

[Paulo1]

2% risk on your total account size is standard. I believe 100/1 leverage can be to much. try 15/1 or even 50/1. Your stoploss will be calculated on your position size in relation to the distance from entry. In general most pairs on a full contract (1 standard lot) has a value of $10 usd per pip. If you use a mini account your pip value is $1. Risk depends on your account size. And your abililty to accept a loss. Perhaps you should do some short courses. www.babypips.com

Calculating stoploss from MY numbers is understandable, but what about daily or even hourly chart fluctuations during overall up or down trends?

For example, on Friday EURUSD shot up by 100 pips but now it's still back on the downward trend that started on Sep 17, and there were other 50-60 pip jumps that didn't break the trend, too. On this scale setting stoploss at, say 30 pips, would be too disruptive, wouldn't it?

It seems I should either take bigger risks or go into faster trades where 50 pips move appears like a fortune.

So, my question is - what should be reasonable stop loss from the perspective of chart fluctuations for, say 8 day trades? For EURUSD last Friday anything below 20 pips would have triggered numerous stop losses in trading in both directions.

PS. I'm taking baby steps with babypips, probably still quite a few lessons away from calculating stop losses form pip values and such.

Firstly, you you never know if a trade will go 8 days of 5 minutes, thats trading.

If you are trading with 20 pip stops you would need to be trading a 5 minute chart.

You should never take bigger risk than what your total risk % model is. Reduce your position size or try for a better enter. Patience and Discipline.

Have read up on how to use the Average True Range (ATR) It seems you are trying to trader higher periods with small stops. Not getting a pin point entry you will get hurt.

[PenguinX]

I haven't tried to trade anything since last Thursday even on demo accounts - I'm trying to fit together the numbers mentioned in this thread - 10 pips per day consistently as a sign of success, 8 day holds, 5 min charts for 20 pips etc. I'm trying to figure out what level of stops and size of positions is suitable for what trading periods.

Elsewhere people are talking 25 pips SL on hourly GBPUSD charts, fits rather well as far as I can see.

EurUsd just dropped 60 pips in the past hour on the back of negative news and is not stopping, first time I watched how news affects the market. Stop loss on this particular movement can be as low as 6 pips, judging by the chart.

[Paulo1]

PenguinX.

My advice to you from the very begining was to study higher timeframes. I should have been more clear and said ,learn the daily and weekly charts before trying to trade lower timeframes.. If you want to study other timeframes thats cool, but certainly not something I advise.

[PenguinX]

I was confused by 10pip/day number, it fits only in intraday trade so I started looking there, on daily or weekly charts it's negligible. I assume I should be aiming at getting 50 pips or more in a week, after all the losses.

With bigger time frame and bigger SL numbers I should be looking at smallest available volumes, too, right?

[Paulo1]

I was confused by 10pip/day number, it fits only in intraday trade so I started looking there, on daily or weekly charts it's negligible. I assume I should be aiming at getting 50 pips or more in a week, after all the losses.

With bigger time frame and bigger SL numbers I should be looking at smallest available volumes, too, right?

Its important you use a chart platform that has a close same as New York Bankers Close. Demo this. http://www.axitrader.com.au/

Learn Candles and price action. No indicators. Study Shooting Stars, Hammer, Evening Star, Morning Star, Doji, Engulfing Pattern. Steve Nison is pretty good. But be warned once you give him your email you will get Nison Spam and forgive him for looking like a seventies Porn Star. http://candlecharts.com/

Here are some candle setups, see attached. Therse are the type of sell setup to look for.

Learn how to draw trendlines correctly. There are many books covering Chart Patterns . Getting Started in Chart Patterns By Thomas N Bulkowski.

Trading from the Daily chart you may only get 1 trade per week, be patient. The market only trends 30% of the time. Sometimes the best trade you can do is NO TRADE.

Stay away for forums. The only holy grail is the one within yourself that you develop and understand.

[PenguinX]

Thanks, I've looked into those things when trading equities on SET, at one point I even calculated my own exponential averages based on the data I collect so I could scan my stocks for signals myself.

>>>

I just looked at some numbers - SL of 50 pips on $50 risk means I can buy only 1 minilot, 10,000. Pip value on it is 1, and gain of 10 pips per day would give me only $10 profit, which is 300 baht per day, which is like Thailand's minimum wage.

On intraday charts where SL can be 25 pips I can buy 2 minilots, which means $20 dollars per day on the same 10 pip profit. Still very little but the direction is unmistakable - shorter time scale means smaller SL, means bigger trade positions, means bigger profits.

I'm not greedy but going into Forex with a goal of making 300 baht per day seems like a giant waste of time.

Did I get this right - weekly and daily charts require larger SL, which limits size of my positions, which limits my profits. Either I have to increase my risk tolerance or invest into a much bigger account....., or trade off hourly charts with much lower SL.

And leverage doesn't even come into play here - to buy one or two minilots I would need only $200-400 on the modest 50/1 leverage. In fact it appears that my potential profits are limited only by the size of the required SL. If I need to set SL at 100 there's no way I can make any decent money off that trade regardless of whatever I gain in pips, but finding a chart with acceptable SL of 10 increases income tenfold on the same pip profit.

[Paulo1]

Thanks, I've looked into those things when trading equities on SET, at one point I even calculated my own exponential averages based on the data I collect so I could scan my stocks for signals myself.

>>>

I just looked at some numbers - SL of 50 pips on $50 risk means I can buy only 1 minilot, 10,000. Pip value on it is 1, and gain of 10 pips per day would give me only $10 profit, which is 300 baht per day, which is like Thailand's minimum wage.

On intraday charts where SL can be 25 pips I can buy 2 minilots, which means $20 dollars per day on the same 10 pip profit. Still very little but the direction is unmistakable - shorter time scale means smaller SL, means bigger trade positions, means bigger profits.

I'm not greedy but going into Forex with a goal of making 300 baht per day seems like a giant waste of time.

Did I get this right - weekly and daily charts require larger SL, which limits size of my positions, which limits my profits. Either I have to increase my risk tolerance or invest into a much bigger account....., or trade off hourly charts with much lower SL.

And leverage doesn't even come into play here - to buy one or two minilots I would need only $200-400 on the modest 50/1 leverage. In fact it appears that my potential profits are limited only by the size of the required SL. If I need to set SL at 100 there's no way I can make any decent money off that trade regardless of whatever I gain in pips, but finding a chart with acceptable SL of 10 increases income tenfold on the same pip profit.

It all depends on the size of your account. If you make 10 pips profit per day conistantly on a full lot $10 per pip. Thats $100, then as your account grows you add another lot, now $200 per day , and so forth. So if you have 10 lots and make a consistant 10 pips profit a day thats $1000 per day. A bit more than the Thai minimum wage. Maybe you should just trade the SET. Also, if you don't have an account with a minimum start figure of 10,000 USD, not BAHT, your path is much more difficult.

Seems like you have it all worked out. Just try and do 10 pips profit consistantly on a demo or micro account per day for 3 months, then decide whether forex is for you. You are not going to make money until you put the work in yourself.

Good luck.

Edited September 24, 2012 by Paulo1