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Dollar Going To ######, What Should I Do?


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I'm from the US and quite worried about the falling value of the dollar. I'm semi-retired and live on my savings and interest from US banks.

In addition, though he claims he wants to save it, it's obvious Bush really wants to destroy the US social security program, and I was also counting on that to help finance my retirement (when I become eligible in 15 or so years). Now who knows what money will be available to me from that. :o

So I'm trying to figure out what is the most prudent thing to do in this situation.

I am wondering if I ought to try to put my money into a foreign currency, but don't know how to do this.

It wouldn't be baht because I'm probably going to leave Thailand for elsewhere in Asia soon.

How does a small investor go about buying foreign currency? Here are the issues I'm concerned about:

My money now is mostly tied up in long term CDs in US banks. If I withdraw the money, I will pay an interest penalty. This isn't that big a deal because I figured I'd be withdrawing prior to maturity when interest rates climbed back up and it would be worth it to reinvest at higher rates. However, rates haven't climbed enough yet to justify this, and I don't know what rates I could get in a foreign bank.

My money in the US is guaranteed by the government. If I invested in a foreign bank, can I still have a guarantee on my savings?

Are foreigners generally allowed to invest in foreign banks? I know I had no trouble opening a bank account in Thailand, but would the same be true in a European or Australian bank?

As you can see, I know very little about finances, and I know I should probably have made a move to foreign currencies earlier. Would welcome hearing from anyone who wants to offer advice on what US citizens might do in this situation. (I realize that some of you probably enjoy watching us squirm, but I am as critical of my government as many of you are, if not more so)

Edited by Yangpuss
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I'm from the US and quite worried about the falling value of the dollar. I'm semi-retired and live on my savings and interest from US banks.

In addition, though he claims he wants to save it, it's obvious Bush really wants to destroy the US social security program, and I was also counting on that to help finance my retirement (when I become eligible in 15 or so years). Now who knows what money will be available to me from that. :o

So I'm trying to figure out what is the most prudent thing to do in this situation.

I am wondering if I ought to  try to put my money into a foreign currency, but don't know how to do this.

It wouldn't be baht because I'm probably going to leave Thailand for elsewhere in Asia soon.

How does a small investor go about buying foreign currency? Here are the issues I'm concerned about:

My money now is mostly tied up in long term CDs in US banks. If I withdraw the money, I will pay an interest penalty. This isn't that big a deal because I figured I'd be withdrawing prior to maturity when interest rates climbed back up and it would be worth it to reinvest at higher rates. However, rates haven't climbed enough yet to justify this, and I don't know what rates I could get in a foreign bank.

My money in the US is guaranteed by the government. If I invested in a foreign bank, can I still have a guarantee on my savings?

Are foreigners generally allowed to invest in foreign banks? I know I had no trouble opening a bank account in Thailand, but would the same be true in a European or Australian bank?

As you can see, I know very little about finances, and I know I should probably have made a move to foreign currencies earlier. Would welcome hearing from anyone who wants to offer advice on what US citizens might do in this situation. (I realize that some of you probably enjoy watching us squirm, but I am as critical of my government as many of you are, if not more so)

to be on the safe side I would consider to put your US assets into 3 currencies:

US $

GB Pounds

Euro's

The US $ is for sure to fall further against the Euro; some even speak about up to 30%...that would be really dramatic.

Your buying power in US $ would even fall further if you keep the US $ as it is now if you consider to stay/live in the Far East.

Consider contacting a branch of the HSBC in BKK, HK or Singapore

good luck to you (and your money)

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Singapore dollars and gold and silver bullion.

Silver will blast off more than gold.Perth Mint Certificates are an easy way to own the bullion without the hassles of storage.

Pegged undervalued currencies like China yuan and Malaysia ringgits will appreciate fastest.

Everbank.com allows foreign currency accounts including yuan accounts.

Commodity currencies like Aussie dollars and Canadian dollars will do well as China's demand for copper ,zinc,etc., zooms upwards.

Avoid the US stock market and real estate.

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Thanks for the responses. Well, I'm still not sure what to do. It never occurred to me a few years ago that having savings accounts in US dollars was a risky investment, but now it is turning out to be so. I feel like I'm in the stock market, and everything is down, down, down.

Darn, why didn't I do something about this four years ago when the dollar was at almost 45 baht?

A few questions. You who said invest in Yuan...I realize this seems like a foolproof investment, but haven't insiders known for years that the yuan was destined to go up a lot? I mean, isn't this old news? So it is still possible to hitch a ride on that currency today? I would have thought that such opportunities vanish quickly, and it would now be too late. However, I know that China still has the peg. But if this is such a foolproof idea, why isn't everybody doing it?

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Yangpuss,

you asked for advice and many gave it to you...but you're waiting and waiting.

I suggest you talk to an International Bank not a US bank...soon!

Ravisher, you said you keep 50/50 in US $/Euro; I wouldn't!

I would sell any US $ I have (and I don't) NOW.

In the case of Yangpuss about I advised earlier to keep/change his assets in 3 currencies (US$/Euro/GBP), I would maybe like to add it into 4:

US$/Euro/GBP/Swiss Francs).

He would be on a very safe side there.

I wouldn't invest in Yuan at the moment because of the many restrictions the Chinese Government lay upon the Banks and the Mortgages, loans etc.

Housing in China is down, down, because the man-in-the-street cannot get any Mortgage at the moment; that counts for buying cars too; market is down, down.

This is to cooldown the spending, consuming and production..because like Ravisher said before...it's overheated and nobody knows where it will go.

What the US $ is concerned....'read my lips'....it will go down further and further against Euro and other currencies, absolutely and no doubt about it.

LaoPo

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Buying other currencies while your own currency is at a very low point is not a very good option. What if the dollar gains strength then your money in other currencies is worth a lot less.

I advice you to not get nervous about your savings. It is in one of the safest spots right now, althoug it doesn' make a lot of money on interest.

Bush has only 4 more years, after that use your vote to get someone in office that cares about these things.

You say you retire in about 15 years. That is about 4 presidents more. A lot can change.

Investments are very risky when you don't know about it, getting advice is expensive as most of them just want your money to make percentages of your buying and selling. Slowly your savings will be gone. Get educated about investments and if you feel comfortable about it make your own decisions. One advice, dont put all your eggs in one basket.

Nobody gets poor from saving, with investments you have to accept a risk that you can loose some or all of your money.

Currencies are very volatile and dangerous if you have no knowledge about them.

Edited by Khun Jean
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Thanks for the responses. Well, I'm still not sure what to do. It never occurred to me a few years ago that having savings accounts in US dollars was a risky investment, but now it is turning out to be so. I feel like I'm in the stock market, and everything is down, down, down.

Darn, why didn't I do something about this four years ago when the dollar was at almost 45 baht?

A few questions. You who said invest in Yuan...I realize this seems like  a foolproof investment, but haven't insiders known for years that the yuan was destined to go up a lot? I mean, isn't this old news? So it is still possible to hitch a ride on that currency today? I would have thought that such opportunities vanish quickly, and it would now be too late. However, I know that China still has the peg. But if this is such a foolproof idea, why isn't everybody doing it?

Billions in hot money is flowing into China because investors think China will gradually loosen its peg.The yuan has been pegged to the dollar for the last decade at 8.3 yuan / dollar and it goes up or down with the dollar.It is one reason China was able to export so much to America and elsewhere and it is also the reason the Asian currency crisis of 97 which started with the Thai baht, didn't affect China like the other Asian currencies.Right after the currency crisis,Malaysia

pegged its ringgit at 3.8 per dollar,and other countries control their currencies through semi-pegs,central bank intervention,etc.

Economists think the yuan is up to 40% undervalued and Malaysias ringgit also undervalued about half as much.They will loosen their pegs gradually and may readjust their pegs to a multi-currency basket or start with a narrow float band.

All Asian currencies are undervalued compared to the dollar,euro,etc.,and all will rise when the pegs are unloosened.

At my Bank Of America,every couple weeks I cash in $1000 for 7500 yuan.Also

have ringgits,bahts,singapore dollars,etc.There are also online sources of currencies which I have purchased currencies like ordercurrency.com,American Express,Travelex.com,etc.

My personal forecast for the dollar is decidely bearish so am shifting my savings into other currencies . I am a commercial real estate developer in NJ

and feel that the trillions in dollars the world is sending back into America and loss of confidence in it will send inflation and interest rates sky high here and the real estate bubble will burst.That is the reason my strip centers and mini malls are on the market through my real estate broker who is my mother and are being managed by my property attorney who is my sister.

I am very bullish gold and silver and uranium and not just as safe havens.I have investments in funds,stocks,bullion,etc.As the currencies duke it out,those with the gold can watch as their Krugerrands,Australian kangaroos,etc.,appreciate while the currencies go on their wild rides.

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Thanks for the responses. Well, I'm still not sure what to do. It never occurred to me a few years ago that having savings accounts in US dollars was a risky investment, but now it is turning out to be so. I feel like I'm in the stock market, and everything is down, down, down.

Darn, why didn't I do something about this four years ago when the dollar was at almost 45 baht?

A few questions. You who said invest in Yuan...I realize this seems like  a foolproof investment, but haven't insiders known for years that the yuan was destined to go up a lot? I mean, isn't this old news? So it is still possible to hitch a ride on that currency today? I would have thought that such opportunities vanish quickly, and it would now be too late. However, I know that China still has the peg. But if this is such a foolproof idea, why isn't everybody doing it?

:o

Don't confuse short term currency flucuations and long term curency value.

In short don't panic.

If the CDs you have will take a penalty to close them out, leave them until they close out.

The Euro is high now because of speculation and U.S. deficit spending. The outlook for Euro economy is not great. Germany may actually have negative growth in 2005. In time the Euro will go to fair value against dollar.

Yes, you can legally open accounts in U.K. You might consider that, but first be sure of what you are doing.

:D

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Yangpuss I think the UD$ will rebound in the next year depending on the situation in iraq and if Mr Bush can mend some fences. Most currancies are tied in part to the USD so i think in the long term your money is safe even if it is nott strong now.

Because the Canadian $ is high compared to the UD$ and the Baht is inpart tied to the US currancy we have transfered funds into Thailand. Normally the Baht is 29+/- to the Can$ but recently it is about 32.5 Baht to the Can$ or more. This in effect gives us about a 12% , tax free, increase in our Thai bank ballance which we use for our house payments. We are expecting the USD to rebound and the Canadian$ will then stabalize at the normal rate and then will again be in your shoes....

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I'm from the US and quite worried about the falling value of the dollar. I'm semi-retired and live on my savings and interest from US banks.

In addition, though he claims he wants to save it, it's obvious Bush really wants to destroy the US social security program, and I was also counting on that to help finance my retirement (when I become eligible in 15 or so years). Now who knows what money will be available to me from that. :o

So I'm trying to figure out what is the most prudent thing to do in this situation.

I am wondering if I ought to  try to put my money into a foreign currency, but don't know how to do this.

It wouldn't be baht because I'm probably going to leave Thailand for elsewhere in Asia soon.

How does a small investor go about buying foreign currency? Here are the issues I'm concerned about:

My money now is mostly tied up in long term CDs in US banks. If I withdraw the money, I will pay an interest penalty. This isn't that big a deal because I figured I'd be withdrawing prior to maturity when interest rates climbed back up and it would be worth it to reinvest at higher rates. However, rates haven't climbed enough yet to justify this, and I don't know what rates I could get in a foreign bank.

My money in the US is guaranteed by the government. If I invested in a foreign bank, can I still have a guarantee on my savings?

Are foreigners generally allowed to invest in foreign banks? I know I had no trouble opening a bank account in Thailand, but would the same be true in a European or Australian bank?

As you can see, I know very little about finances, and I know I should probably have made a move to foreign currencies earlier. Would welcome hearing from anyone who wants to offer advice on what US citizens might do in this situation. (I realize that some of you probably enjoy watching us squirm, but I am as critical of my government as many of you are, if not more so)

It is likely that the US$ will continue to fall for some time but not forever. What goes down will eventually come up and vice versa (as in the price of oil, S&P 500, etc). Why will the US$ most likely continue to fall in the near future?

“Thus, in the famous words of Richard Nixon’s Secretary of Treasury, shortly after the break-up of the Bretton Woods arrangements, "the U.S. dollar is America’s currency, but a falling U.S. dollar is the rest of the world’s problem!" But more bluntly, the right time for America to debauch its currency, as all right-thinking countries who issue debt in their own currency should want to do, is when a falling dollar inflicts more growth pain on countries with appreciating currencies than it does inflationary pain on the United States.” source:

http://www.pimcofunds.com/commentary/mgr_f...cus11012004.jsp

I am not you and my portfolio is a lot more aggressive than the portfolio I would have if I were you.

1) I would leave 25-35% of my $$ in CDs (most likely the $ will not keep falling and other currencies will not keep rising Forever).

2) I would open an account with Everbank (FIDC insured up to 100,000 US $). I like their two CDs: Prudent Index CD and Commodity CD).

http://www.everbank.com/main.asp?affid=eb

3) I would invest the remaining money in relatively conservative mutual funds (only if I were able to stay inversted for a minimum of 10 years or so), such as:

i) Hussman Strategic Growth Fund (HSGFX)

http://www.hussman.net/

ii) Fidelity Diversified International Fund (FDIVX)

iii) Permanent Portfolio Fund (PRPFX)

The 3 individuals who created this fund in the 1970s decided to combine 6 asset classes which have made it quite unique. In fact it is hard to find a fund that has half that number, typically stocks, bonds and cash. Here are the 6 components of Permanent Portfolio:

20% Gold bullion

5% Silver bullion

10% Swiss bonds

15% Natural resource

15% Aggressive Growth Stocks

35% U.S. Treasury etc.

100% Total

For more info on this fund see: http://www.tradewithvision.com/kbase/pdf/zerostocks.pdf

and

http://www.libertyfree.com/FailSafe/faq.htm

"Q. In your book, you recommend the Permanent Fund (PRPFX). However, when one compares this product to the S&P 500 since 1983 (apparently the beginning of the fund), that fund has a gain of approximately 100 percent while the S&P 500 has a gain of almost 600 percent. To what do you attribute this?

A. Actually, the Permanent Portfolio Fund has risen 183% (including dividends) during the period. If you accept the concept of the Permanent Portfolio, you can't compare its results with any one investment, because over any period of time there will always be some investment that has outperformed it. The reason for having a Permanent Portfolio is to have safety, stability, and simplicity — not to be the top performer in every period."

PS. I am not sure if President Bush is trying to destroy the Social Security program. But I am sure that I could manage my future retirement $$ better than the useless, fat-ass government bureaucrats in DC.

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They important thing is to stop panicing. You'll make a foolish decision in haste and fear.

I admit to a degree of relish in the Dollar falling but that's nothing against you. I also beleive it will fall much further than people here think (I think they'll try to prop it up with interest rates, sending out the wrong message to investors, amongst other things too lengthy to talk about now).

I agree with most of the sentiment here... look to the long term but if I were in your position, I'd get 50 percent of my money out of Dollars immediately but I'd steer clear of Pounds and Euro's because you've missed the boat.

As a hint (and that's all it is... DYOR) I'm watching Hong Kong Dollars and Singapore Dollars with great interest at this time :o

If you're in it for the adrenaline rush, look at Phillipine Peso's (medium term and risky)

Edited by Flummoxed
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Ravisher, you said you keep 50/50 in US $/Euro; I wouldn't!

I would sell any US $ I have (and I don't) NOW.

What the US $ is concerned....'read my lips'....it will go down further and further against Euro and other currencies, absolutely and no doubt about it.

LaoPo

I do not think that anybody in the world right now could make that statement in any form of believability.

I will keep my USD. Unless you envisage the USA going completely down the toilet, so should you.

Do you really imagine that G.W. Bush is in the driving seat of the US enconomy? No, it is the money moguls. As I said, there is an economy war going on right now that is Global and as firece as it has ever been. I do not see America ending up like Russia, although it is possible. I cannot see the USA allowing that to happen... no matter what it takes!

The US dollar may fall lower... but it will gain in strength, when and as the money moguls see fit.

The money moguls died of a heart attack when bush was re-elected... $ going down. U.S. will not be the biggest fish in the pond in 15 - 20 years. Stand aside for the European Union. China will burn out.

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They important thing is to stop panicing. You'll make a foolish decision in haste and fear.

I admit to a degree of relish in the Dollar falling but that's nothing against you. I also beleive it will fall much further than people here think (I think they'll try to prop it up with interest rates, sending out the wrong message to investors, amongst other things too lengthy to talk about now).

I agree with most of the sentiment here... look to the long term but if I were in your position, I'd get 50 percent of my money out of Dollars immediately but I'd steer clear of Pounds and Euro's because you've missed the boat.

As a hint (and that's all it is... DYOR) I'm watching Hong Kong Dollars and Singapore Dollars with great interest at this time :o

Flummoxed, You may have hit on a few things here I had not thought of... (I think they'll try to prop it up with interest rates, sending out the wrong message to investors, amongst other things too lengthy to talk about now) This would make good sense for the US at this time... they want to 'show' the dollar as 'weak', much weaker than it really is. I think I mentioned that in an earlier post here. How much further they will 'allow' it to fall will only be known by the US government or the part that matters. I think when the dollar rises and it must, the pound will not be affected half as much as the Euro. As soon as the dollar does rise, I will switch the Euro to USD.

But like I said, it's anybody's guess. Not so sure about Hong Kong Dollars or Singapore... I have a strong feeling that China will do a lot of economic damage in Asia before too long...

It will be interesting to watch the world economy over the next 5-10 years....

Agreed.

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The money moguls died of a heart attack when bush was re-elected... $ going down. U.S. will not be the biggest fish in the pond in 15 - 20 years. Stand aside for the European Union. China will burn out.

The problem with Bush Bashing is that it makes one loose sight of the reality. Bush after all is only a 'figurehead'.

Also do not underestimate the "evil" in mankind... The USA is not going to go under without an atomic war. It is not the American nature to loose, at any cost.

I do not think the European Union will be anything akin to the United States of America... too many different cultures, ideas, interests, diversities of opinions... A nice idea but I don't see it getting its act together for a long, long time. The UK is still sitting on the fence, although inside.

We'll see :o

Don't get me wrong, I don't see the EU as a super power. I'm trying to be optimistic when I think of a new World order in 20 years. The U.S. having learnt a lesson (no more Global bullying (Economic or otherwise)), the EU a stronger and balancing influence in the World (I like some of the French presidents idea's very much), China will also be a big player but keeping themselves to themselves.

I'm just dreaming, I know... but there has to be a re-ordering of things. I'm going to stick my neck out here and say the US Dollar will lose it's privelidge of printing the Worlds reserve currency. It'll still be in demand but competing with Euro's and a far Eastern currency (not sure which). You probably all think I'm mad... We'll see.

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Ravisher, you said you keep 50/50 in US $/Euro; I wouldn't!

I would sell any US $ I have (and I don't) NOW.

What the US $ is concerned....'read my lips'....it will go down further and further against Euro and other currencies, absolutely and no doubt about it.

LaoPo

I do not think that anybody in the world right now could make that statement in any form of believability.

I will keep my USD. Unless you envisage the USA going completely down the toilet, so should you.

Do you really imagine that G.W. Bush is in the driving seat of the US enconomy? No, it is the money moguls. As I said, there is an economy war going on right now that is Global and as firece as it has ever been. I do not see America ending up like Russia, although it is possible. I cannot see the USA allowing that to happen... no matter what it takes!

The US dollar may fall lower... but it will gain in strength, when and as the money moguls see fit.

The money moguls died of a heart attack when bush was re-elected... $ going down. U.S. will not be the biggest fish in the pond in 15 - 20 years. Stand aside for the European Union. China will burn out.

I don't know how you can say, "China will burn out." They have natural resources

far exceeding what the 'experts' know of. The Chinese are masters of the 'money game,' playing much longer than the British or Americans. They have connections all over the world that are intricately connected beyond belief.

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Ravisher, you said you keep 50/50 in US $/Euro; I wouldn't!

I would sell any US $ I have (and I don't) NOW.

What the US $ is concerned....'read my lips'....it will go down further and further against Euro and other currencies, absolutely and no doubt about it.

LaoPo

I do not think that anybody in the world right now could make that statement in any form of believability.

I will keep my USD. Unless you envisage the USA going completely down the toilet, so should you.

Do you really imagine that G.W. Bush is in the driving seat of the US enconomy? No, it is the money moguls. As I said, there is an economy war going on right now that is Global and as firece as it has ever been. I do not see America ending up like Russia, although it is possible. I cannot see the USA allowing that to happen... no matter what it takes!

The US dollar may fall lower... but it will gain in strength, when and as the money moguls see fit.

The money moguls died of a heart attack when bush was re-elected... $ going down. U.S. will not be the biggest fish in the pond in 15 - 20 years. Stand aside for the European Union. China will burn out.

I don't know how you can say, "China will burn out." They have natural resources

far exceeding what the 'experts' know of. The Chinese are masters of the 'money game,' playing much longer than the British or Americans. They have connections all over the world that are intricately connected beyond belief.

I agree... again, French premier very shrewd in making ties with China early on.

I just think they're gonna have to slow down for a while... re-grease their cam shaft, so to speak.

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In the next two years or so, the USD will be going down, down, down. Currently it is kept on a much higher rate than it should be given the huge deficit that is only growing. The consumption of imported goods in the US plus the overseas spending is way too high for the American economy to handle.

The main factor that is blocking the big-time collapse of the $ are Asian investors, mainly from Japan, who keep on buying US bonds. Its good for their economies because keeping the $ at a high rate means they can continue with strong export. Basically they are giving more and more loans to the US at low interest.

But they cannot do so indefinitely. At some point the money flow from Asia will stop (probably gradually) and there will be no other possibility for the $ but to fall. That will continue to go down until import-export balance will make more sence.

But - for long term investments (over 10 years) - I'd still leave SOME of my money on the $. The scenario I described is only for the next years, anything can happen afterwards. And if you have serious penalty it might not worth changing it.

In any way - at it was said here before - don't keep all eggs in one basket. The Euro has a good potential long-term. Yuan should go up sooner or later. I'd go for a combination of USD-EUR-GBP-Yuan.

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Thanks, everybody. This thread has been one of the best discussions on the future of the US$. I'm in a similar situation to the OP, simply because I have too much cash in US dollars. But I appreciate the several posters who differentiate between the short term and the longer terms. I'm going to hedge myself by having a fair amount of cash in my home country (US) and a smaller but still substantial amount in the country where I live (Thailand). Also, my current wages are in baht, and my pensions all in US$ and adjusted for inflation. I don't feel like being a sophisticated investor or speculator at this stage of my life (I'm 62).

China? It has over a billion very poor people, and a crumbling social system.

Japan? Still has overvalued real estate, great factories, high costs, and no interest rates.

Thailand? Third world country economically, but advancing rapidly.

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It is interesting that the lower the dollar goes the easier it is for other countries to buy US goods. You may say that the US doesn't make much anymore. What the US makes a lot of are weapons for war and high tech devices for bomb detection.

The US policy makers claim they want to put an end to terrorism, ha! It is just the beginning of a 'Perpetual War for Perpetual Peace,' as Gore Vidal would say.

Ravisher is absolutely right that war through the ages has been manipulated for pure profit; nothing has changed. Everybody just needs their chess pieces in the right place. I've put most of my pieces in the country where I plan on ending up permanently one day, Thailand. If the baht goes to shitt, well the baht is only worth a baht if I'm in Thaialnd.

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Not in our interest I'm afraid- mind you the current govt been trying, but if/when they put it to a vote- it will be soundly defeated by the public. This is the reason Blair won't put it to a vote. It has much to do with tradition/national pride and alot of us remember what happened when we joined the EC and last devalue of currency. Sterling for example used to average almost 2.5 dollars per 1 quid, not to mention prices sky rocketed.

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