Dollar Going To ######, What Should I Do?

[LivinLOS]

Once again you have laid out thatyou belive the dollar is going to skyrocket (long term).. Buy dollars and retire...

As the nay sayers have given a multi headed hydra of reasons why this is at best unlikely.. How about a fundamental reason why you believe it is not so..

Will be great to see this thread in 2006 and after.. I hope it gets archived.

[Harmonica]

Once again you have laid out thatyou belive the dollar is going to skyrocket (long term).. Buy dollars and retire...

As the nay sayers have given a multi headed hydra of reasons why this is at best unlikely.. How about a fundamental reason why you believe it is not so..

Will be great to see this thread in 2006 and after.. I hope it gets archived.

If Thaivisa is still around, there's no reason this thread will not still exist -- archived? ... it will most likely be kept alive by USD/Gold enthusiasts.

Here's what I'm saying in a nutshell:

The long downtrend seems to be turning over and we are highly likely to see a new uptrend -- how long will it last? don't know, so I'm going to play one intermediate rise Long, then go Short the retracement, then Long the next int. rise, then Short the retracement and so on --- until the whole TREND gives indication of reversing. Then I'll exit and position for the big downleg -- OK?

One thing I know for sure -- the experts and bigshots are always happy to lead you over the cliff and then when you need hospitalization and intensive care they pretend they don't know you and deny they coaxed you to jump in the first place.

Keeping my own counsel, picking my own weaponry and pulling the trigger when I, I, I, decide -- licking my wounds when hurt, passing out when the market has whacked me good, the STOP notwithstanding -- and rising to attack again --- that's therapeutic to me -- and the pleasure of being right and deciphering market whispers accurately -- that's Paradise (not ChiangMai)!!

[Harmonica]

As the nay sayers have given a multi headed hydra of reasons why this is at best unlikely.. How about a fundamental reason why you believe it is not so..

>>>> How about a fundamental reason why you believe it is not so.. <<<<<

OK then, here it is:

Aside from the Las Vegas good-odds play that Interest rates are going up fast and bigtime, I don't think that dollar dumping is in the cards in the near forseeable future -- I do see this after the next Dollar uptrend is over. That will then be the time to abandon the Dollar -- for what? ... for Gold, is my call. By the time all this happens Gold will be @ 250-320 and should be scooped up ravenously.

OK, so what is my MAIN fundamental reason then? ..... DEFLATION!!!

No need to belabor the issue that Credit is way out of control and that the average American is living from paycheck to paycheck and is turning equity into debt at catastrophic speed -- and, I might add, enjoying it too.

When the credit spigot is turned off, Deflation, which is aborning, albeit in its infancy, will start to accelerate and then with even more tightening, it will spiral out of control. That is why it is not a good idea IMHO to hold the most illiquid of investments, namely Real Estate.

Why am I calling for a period of deep Deflation? Let's leave this for another topic, OK?

Regards

[LivinLOS]

I agree re housing (home equity, gotta love that misnomer)..

Also agree that a short term upswing in the dollar may well happen.. I am hopeing it does to use that as another buy in for commodities..

The world is needing more of everything as the developing world wakes up.. China is consuming vast amounts of copper / oil / <insert anything here> ###### even coffee is at historic lows (adjusting for inflation).. I am keen to be firmly hedged against all fiat money.. I think the pound especially is due for a pullback and the Euro is overvalued but the continueing demise of the dollar should hold it up in dollar / euro terms over the mid to longer term..

In the last 2 years I have read and understood a bit about fiat currencies and the chaos that unbacked paper can create.. The tales of bankers or note holders printing themselves into poverty litter the history books and it seems to me like we are heading (long long term now) into a period where this is a possibility and one I want to insure against. Soros's 'Bubble of American Supremacy' sure makes for a gloomy read also..

[Harmonica]

I agree re housing (home equity, gotta love that misnomer)..

Also agree that a short term upswing in the dollar may well happen.. I am hopeing it does to use that as another buy in for commodities..

The world is needing more of everything as the developing world wakes up.. China is consuming vast amounts of copper / oil / <insert anything here> ###### even coffee is at historic lows (adjusting for inflation).. I am keen to be firmly hedged against all fiat money.. I think the pound especially is due for a pullback and the Euro is overvalued but the continueing demise of the dollar should hold it up in dollar / euro terms over the mid to longer term..

In the last 2 years I have read and understood a bit about fiat currencies and the chaos that unbacked paper can create.. The tales of bankers or note holders printing themselves into poverty litter the history books and it seems to me like we are heading (long long term now) into a period where this is a possibility and one I want to insure against. Soros's 'Bubble of American Supremacy' sure makes for a gloomy read also..

Soros's stuff gloomy -- ever tried Robert Prechter's stuff? By the way, he was the winner of state trading championships several times in a row -- back when they used to be into that sort of thing -- see if you can pick up a copy of "Crest of the Tidal Wave" -- solid stuff in there even for fundamentalists -- and don't worry; even the most brazen, hardcore technicians get whacked pretty good by the mathematically superior and far more challenging Tech. Analysis called ElliottWave Theory/International, of which old Robert is the author/founder.

[Harmonica]

I'm from the US and quite worried about the falling value of the dollar. I'm semi-retired and live on my savings and interest from US banks.

In addition, though he claims he wants to save it, it's obvious Bush really wants to destroy the US social security program, and I was also counting on that to help finance my retirement (when I become eligible in 15 or so years). Now who knows what money will be available to me from that.

So I'm trying to figure out what is the most prudent thing to do in this situation.

I am wondering if I ought to  try to put my money into a foreign currency, but don't know how to do this.

It wouldn't be baht because I'm probably going to leave Thailand for elsewhere in Asia soon.

How does a small investor go about buying foreign currency? Here are the issues I'm concerned about:

My money now is mostly tied up in long term CDs in US banks. If I withdraw the money, I will pay an interest penalty. This isn't that big a deal because I figured I'd be withdrawing prior to maturity when interest rates climbed back up and it would be worth it to reinvest at higher rates. However, rates haven't climbed enough yet to justify this, and I don't know what rates I could get in a foreign bank.

My money in the US is guaranteed by the government. If I invested in a foreign bank, can I still have a guarantee on my savings?

Are foreigners generally allowed to invest in foreign banks? I know I had no trouble opening a bank account in Thailand, but would the same be true in a European or Australian bank?

As you can see, I know very little about finances, and I know I should probably have made a move to foreign currencies earlier. Would welcome hearing from anyone who wants to offer advice on what US citizens might do in this situation. (I realize that some of you probably enjoy watching us squirm, but I am as critical of my government as many of you are, if not more so)

Back to base! Yangpuss, have you done anything to your CD holdings based on what has transpired here?

Have your questions been answered, or is there more confusion than before?

Foreigners and foreign banks -- where do you stand on this now?

[LivinLOS]

Been reading Elliot wave theory for the last few months (crest of the wave is upstairs)... There is also a wave matrix trading newsletter that I have followed that has had sensational gains in the last year..

I try not to let 'the end is niegh' thoeries get to me too much.. Readin Beckman in the 80's kind of made me realize that being a doom sayer sells books.. but many many ingredients are there for some very harsh lessons over the next 10 - 20 years..

Just trying to stay liquid and hedge against as much as I can..

[Harmonica]

Been reading Elliot wave theory for the last few months (crest of the wave is upstairs)... There is also a wave matrix trading newsletter that I have followed that has had sensational gains in the last year..

I try not to let 'the end is niegh' thoeries get to me too much.. Readin Beckman in the 80's kind of made me realize that being a doom sayer sells books.. but many many ingredients are there for some very harsh lessons over the next 10 - 20 years..

Just trying to stay liquid and hedge against as much as I can..

Glad to know that you've been reading Elliottwave -- there was a time back in 2001 when I did a trial subscription for their short-term update -- mostly to practise my Elliott skills -- what I discovered was that Classical Tech. analysis is far more reliable for trading ST and MT -- but for LT perspective Elliott has no secondplace contender.

I always am interested to hear what Bob has to say -- whether I agree with him or not is irrelevant -- he has put out some fine books and I've read them all (I think).

[Yangpuss]

Back to base!  Yangpuss, have you done anything to your CD holdings based on what has transpired here?

Have your questions been answered, or is there more confusion than before?

Foreigners and foreign banks -- where do you stand on this now?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Harmonica,

I'm still just listening and waiting. For a reason too complicated to go into, I haven't been able to do anything with my money in the last month even if I had figured out what to do. I appreciate these discussions very much. I think you may very well be right, Harmonica. Though I don't think you're right that the dollar will "skyrocket," I think that's almost inconceivable. But it may well go up a bit, and that will be the opportunity to move out of the dollar into some other stable currency that isn't going to put me through all this anxiety. But exactly which currency(ies) to move into...this I still haven't decided, although I feel strongly that it should be a pegged currency.

I think you are correct about Gates and Buffett and the pseudo-experts. I would tend to believe the opposite of what they say about the future of the dollar. I mean, how can they say things like that, knowing the impact that their statements will have on the market and people's perceptions. Perhaps they are trying to drive the dollar down so they can feast on the wildebeast, as you say.

Right now, I'm planning on going to Vietnam very soon and hopefully will want to stay there. So I'm trying to find out if I could open a VN bank account and if my money would be safe there. Have only just started to research this. Maybe that would be a good idea, maybe not.

[Harmonica]

Back to base!  Yangpuss, have you done anything to your CD holdings based on what has transpired here?

Have your questions been answered, or is there more confusion than before?

Foreigners and foreign banks -- where do you stand on this now?

Harmonica,

I'm still just listening and waiting. For a reason too complicated to go into, I haven't been able to do anything with my money in the last month even if I had figured out what to do. I appreciate these discussions very much. I think you may very well be right, Harmonica. Though I don't think you're right that the dollar will "skyrocket," I think that's almost inconceivable. But it may well go up a bit, and that will be the opportunity to move out of the dollar into some other stable currency that isn't going to put me through all this anxiety. But exactly which currency(ies) to move into...this I still haven't decided, although I feel strongly that it should be a pegged currency.

I think you are correct about Gates and Buffett and the pseudo-experts. I would tend to believe the opposite of what they say about the future of the dollar. I mean, how can they say things like that, knowing the impact that their statements will have on the market and people's perceptions. Perhaps they are trying to drive the dollar down so they can feast on the wildebeast, as you say.

Right now, I'm planning on going to Vietnam very soon and hopefully will want to stay there. So I'm trying to find out if I could open a VN bank account and if my money would be safe there. Have only just started to research this. Maybe that would be a good idea, maybe not.

Very pleased to hear that you did not panic and divest your investment CDs -- as you may well have noticed, the USD Index has rallied from the December 29th bottom. Whether this bottom is significant, we are yet to find out; but the rally has at least afforded you some respite and that's a good thing to have. Some space to think!

Why not open that account with HSBC in Singapore (physically, as opposed to a pseudo-Sing account in LOS)? Its easy to do -- via mail actually! Hold the currency of your choice -- check out the website. This way you dispense with a plethora of liabilities that plague the foreigner living in this region.

Best of luck

[Thaiquila]

I am in a very similar situation to the original poster.

Here is my basic strategy:

Buy a condo in Thailand (in cash) that constitutes a significant percentage of my assets

Invest a significant amount of my mutual fund investments in a mix of European and Asian companies

In this way, I feel I am somewhat hedged against currency movements either way.

There is absolutely nothing an American can do about future social security income being paid in dollars, which by the time they are paid, may be seriously reduced, and seriously devalued because of a weaker dollar. Or not.

(Actually, I just had a funny thought. As the Bushman is trying to cram his stupid social security "choice" idea down our throats, a choice that will just add trillions to the deficit, we could write our legislators and ask them that we have the "choice" for our social security funds to accumulate in Chinese currency.)

Using the hedge strategy I don't win big or lose big whichever way the dollar moves. This is OK. What matters for a retiree is having money to live for the rest of their life, not becoming Bill Gates.

Life is a risk.

If America crumbles, there will always be other countries that are affordable for marginal American retirees. Like Nicaragua. Or Alabama.

Edited February 5, 2005 by Thaiquila

[Dickie]

I don't think the US will crumble, but I do think China and India will marginalise the West, as it's called. The US will become just another player, albeit with a huge deficit to service which will put it at a disadvantage with other countries.

As for a weapon more potent than the fusion bomb: if someone could find a way of unlocking the forces that bind the quarks into a proton then that WOULD be spectacular. However, I think we are currently at the limit of our destructive potential. Larger-yield fusion bombs are a possibility but, even there, there is a limit as to how much hydrogen you can fuse in one hit.

I think a lot of it is paranoia. If the US DID have a more destructive weapon then the rest of the world would unite and demand details of how it's done or would ensure THAT country couldn't use it: i.e. armageddon. For all the bad press and bad foreign policy decisions the US hasn't gone beserk over the entire globe. A weapon more destructive than a fusion bomb? If they've managed to create one then announcing it would bring carnage down upon them and keeping it secret would have zero deterence.

[Braccobaldo]

...beautiful debate...

...but there is something there I don't like to read...

...I know, the human history is being held on wars and world make majors changes throught this but....

...BETTER STOP NOW!!!!

...too powerful weapons now for make war between major countries...

I really really hope that IT WILL NOT HAPPEN....anymore...STOP using military options...can speak and find the best way for the majority.

Regarding China...now they are "running" very very fast...at this pace needs them just 16 years to reach US...but they are not ready yet...they are desperately trying to slower their growth...they know that this speed let them to crash almost same Thailand on '97.

Best scenario for China and, I think, for all countries of the world, is a regulated growth for them (max. 5.5%) and together with this, growth of democratic-sentiments. I don't think we must look to China like enemy, it's so a big country...so too much people...so many new consumers...so many possibilities...what beautiful challenge for western countries.

Why need think about war????

Let's try to think that it's normal that countries want have a better life (similar to us) and everybody will be more safe if it's happen...our major challenge is make this sustainable for the environment...let's spend money for this instead weapons!!!

...any comments....???

[kreon]

been reading through these blogs from one of our fellow members

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/blog/thaidiamond/index.php?

i hope i'm allowed to do this

au revoir

[Harmonica]

I am in a very similar situation to the original poster.

Here is my basic strategy:

Buy a condo in Thailand (in cash) that constitutes a significant percentage of my assets

Invest a significant amount of my mutual fund investments in a mix of European and Asian companies

In this way, I feel I am somewhat hedged against currency movements either way.

There is absolutely nothing an American can do about future social security income being paid in dollars, which by the time they are paid, may be seriously reduced, and seriously devalued because of a weaker dollar. Or not.

(Actually, I just had a funny thought. As the Bushman is trying to cram his stupid social security "choice" idea down our throats, a choice that will just add trillions to the deficit, we could write our legislators and ask them that we have the "choice" for our social security funds to accumulate in Chinese currency.)

Using the hedge strategy I don't win big or lose big whichever way the dollar moves. This is OK. What matters for a retiree is having money to live for the rest of their life, not becoming Bill Gates.

Life is a risk.

If America crumbles, there will always be other countries that are affordable for marginal American retirees. Like Nicaragua. Or Alabama.

Before you buy that Condo or invest heavily in European and/or Asian Companies' stocks or funds, just ask yourself this -- "what would occur if I did indeed buy at a TOP? What's going to happen to my capital, currency fluctuations notwithstanding?"

And conversely, "what would happen if I did indeed buy at a BOTTOM?"

My opinion is that investor sentiment is very strongly suggesting a TOP rather than a BOTTOM.

If you took a look at the Property Index (which is a part of the SET Index), you would not be so gung-ho to buy that condo now.

CASH is king at this juncture, not Gold, Property, coins, etc., etc.

Look at it this way -- your cash holdings will remain constant, minus inflationary effects -- however Deflation is the most likely outcome economywise and that fact alone will propel CASH upwards in terms of buying power. A unit of CASH can then buy far greater portions of "condo" or your choice of goodies.

We are sitting on the cusp of a giant move -- not dissimilar to that of 2000 or do I daresay, 1929. Patience is called for -- mistakes now at the urging of the "experts' will be very costly, amigos.

Restraint!

[Harmonica]

I don't think the US will crumble, but I do think China and India will marginalise the West, as it's called. The US will become just another player, albeit with a huge deficit to service which will put it at a disadvantage with other countries.

As for a weapon more potent than the fusion bomb: if someone could find a way of unlocking the forces that bind the quarks into a proton then that WOULD be spectacular. However, I think we are currently at the limit of our destructive potential. Larger-yield fusion bombs are a possibility but, even there, there is a limit as to how much hydrogen you can fuse in one hit.

I think a lot of it is paranoia. If the US DID have a more destructive weapon then the rest of the world would unite and demand details of how it's done or would ensure THAT country couldn't use it: i.e. armageddon. For all the bad press and bad foreign policy decisions the US hasn't gone beserk over the entire globe. A weapon more destructive than a fusion bomb? If they've managed to create one then announcing it would bring carnage down upon them and keeping it secret would have zero deterence.

Agreed!

[lional6]

China will stumble, the same way Japan did, and will the USA come to their aid. If history has taught us anything, NO they will not. The current economic cycle of the USA is consistent with growth during War. They just had an election so they are high on their our opinion of self-satisfaction.

America are nobodies fool, they just do, what they want, when they want and “being the greatest nation ever on this planet” is what they are taught all during their education and in business life. The sorry story is they will take us with them, when it all falls down around those “finest brains on this planet.

Yes they have the military might to crush any or all, that doesn’t make the government ecomic decisions being made from the highest office by a cowboy correct and as in the past the political decisions will overrule a correct military judgment.

[Dickie]

They were the first to develope the atomic bomb.

Thought that was the Germans towards the end of WW2.

[Dickie]

device. I am talking of 'genetically designed viri' or something we have not yet imagined... Flu's and deadly diseases could be genetically modified, to only attack people with certain genes. Not science fiction any more.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Germ warfare. Hmmm... what you say is right but I don't think any sane, and I include the US in that, country is going to deploy that stuff. Too much risk of mutation and it's very much like Pandora's box: once released it's hard to put it back.

As for deterence: most weapons are made for their deterent-effect. You don't send your regiment into that town if you know a couple of British squaddies are there and tooled-up. Even a simple knife is a good deterent but it must be seen to be there.

[LaoPo]

...beautiful debate...

...but there is something there I don't like to read...

...I know, the human history is being held on wars and world make majors changes throught this but....

...BETTER STOP NOW!!!!

...too powerful weapons now for make war between major countries...

I really really hope that IT WILL NOT HAPPEN....anymore...STOP using military options...can speak and find the best way for the majority.

Regarding China...now they are "running" very very fast...at this pace needs them just 16 years to reach US...but they are not ready yet...they are desperately trying to slower their growth...they know that this speed let them to crash almost same Thailand on '97.

Best scenario for China and, I think, for all countries of the world, is a regulated growth for them (max. 5.5%) and together with this, growth of democratic-sentiments. I don't think we must look to China like enemy, it's so a big country...so too much people...so many new consumers...so many possibilities...what beautiful challenge for western countries.

Why need think about war????

Let's try to think that it's normal that countries want have a better life (similar to us) and everybody will be more safe if it's happen...our major challenge is make this sustainable for the environment...let's spend money for this instead weapons!!!

...any comments....???

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Then... what happens when all that buying and spending STOPS! Where is China then??? China is 'producing'... building more factories, more steelworks, more of everything... building and building... But the good old USA is not buying anymore... and Taxes are loaded up on imports from China... and she finds herself running... with nowhere to go...

People tend to see America as a bunch of fools and cowboys... They are not. Some of the finest brains on this planet live there. The Americans capability for inovations and keeping the pace is second to none. They were the first to develope the atomic bomb. And do you remember the first time you saw 'STEALTH'... the world was in awe. The USA is not a country to underestimate. Ever.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Replying to your first chapter, Ravisher:

1. I think your way of looking to China versus the USA is a little shortsighted. You talk like if China only exports, you seem to forget that China is importing huge amounts of materials like oil, steel and other raw materials which they need to fulfill the demand. The demand is not only coming from the USA, but there are a couple of other markets like Japan, the rest of the Far East, Europe etc.

We are talking here about markets with more than 2 Billion people (versus USA 275 million)! and these markets are growing at an unbelievable speed.

We are not talking anymore about 1 market versus the other; it's a GLOBAL market now and yes of course the USA is still the worlds' leader but I think there is much more; the economically and richest countries like the G7 didn't invite China to join the meeting just for nothing.

They realize that the world consists of markets which cannot live and survive without the other anymore.

second chapter:

2. I don't think 'people' see America like fools and cowboys but merely they are resenting the way they behave around the world like Policeman nr. 1...and doing whatever they want to do, like invading countries, starting a war (not because of Saddam) because of the Oil, and CHEATING the world in any way they please (read: the Power Boys at the White House).

Yes they have some of the finest brains in the World but let me tell you that there are a few more, like in the UK (London=Financial Capital of the World), Germany (technical...who were the first in developing/inventing the 'Bomb'?...not the US!).

I fully agree with you that the US is ever to be underestimated.

But also: do not underestimate the intelligence of the rest of the World, including the 'Brains' in Beijing.

When Marco Polo travelled to China, London and Paris didn't even have 100.000 inhabitants but there were already very clean and civilized cities with more than 1 million people in China.

Of course this all was destroyed in the period during and after 'Mao' but China is improving again at the speed of light.

Personally I think the Americans are too clever to start a 'war' (on the battle fields or economically) with China, simply because it would not only destroy the entire Far East, but also the US itself and the rest of the World.

We shouldn't forget that more than 50-60% of the Worlds' population is not living in the USA but in the Far East (more than 3 Billion!)

And, isn't it an all American expression:

"If you can't beat them...join them" ?

LaoPo

[Braccobaldo]

...oh,yes..Laopo...you right..it's a global market now...we all need to remember this...and our planet is only one too...if we want to follow a sustainable development we need to be together....opponents on the same boat...

[LaoPo]

...oh,yes..Laopo...you right..it's a global market now...we all need to remember this...and our planet is only one too...if we want to follow a sustainable development we need to be together....opponents on the same boat...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Who's the captain ?

LaoPo

[Braccobaldo]

...and what about the dollar???

...1,287...still walking up...is it really going that way???

[Braccobaldo]

..very nice question LaoPo...maybe destiny??

..maybe too philosophic there..

..maybe too much maybe..

[Harmonica]

Replying to your first chapter, Ravisher:

1. I think your way of looking to China versus the USA is a little shortsighted. You talk like if China only exports, you seem to forget that China is importing huge amounts of materials like oil, steel and other raw materials which they need to fulfill the demand. The demand is not only coming from the USA, but there are a couple of other markets like Japan, the rest of the Far East, Europe etc.

We are talking here about markets with more than 2 Billion people (versus USA 275 million)! and these markets are growing at an unbelievable speed.

We are not talking anymore about 1 market versus the other; it's a GLOBAL market now and yes of course the USA is still the worlds' leader but I think there is much more; the economically and richest countries like the G7 didn't invite China to join the meeting just for nothing.

They realize that the world consists of markets which cannot live and survive without the other anymore.

second chapter:

2. I don't think 'people' see America like fools and cowboys but merely they are resenting the way they behave around the world like Policeman nr. 1...and doing whatever they want to do, like invading countries, starting a war (not because of Saddam) because of the Oil, and CHEATING the world in any way they please (read: the Power Boys at the White House).

Yes they have some of the finest brains in the World but let me tell you that there are a few more, like in the UK (London=Financial Capital of the World), Germany (technical...who were the first in developing/inventing the 'Bomb'?...not the US!).

I fully agree with you that the US is ever to be underestimated.

But also: do not underestimate the intelligence of the rest of the World, including the 'Brains' in Beijing.

When Marco Polo travelled to China, London and Paris didn't even have 100.000 inhabitants but there were already very clean and civilized cities with more than 1 million people in China.

Of course this all was destroyed in the period during and after 'Mao' but China is improving again at the speed of light.

Personally I think the Americans are too clever to start a 'war' (on the battle fields or economically) with China, simply because it would not only destroy the entire Far East, but also the US itself and the rest of the World.

We shouldn't forget that more than 50-60% of the Worlds' population is not living in the USA but in the Far East (more than 3 Billion!)

And, isn't it an all American expression:

"If you can't beat them...join them" ?

LaoPo

Hi LaoPo, Very good points and well taken... though I did not 'forget' that China is also importing at an alarming rate... which was part of my point... "building and building" etc etc. It is this very 'alarming' rate that may be thier downfall... They are desperately trying to slow the rate of progress and it 'seems' to be running away with itself..... out of 'control'.

As I said earlier, I am no expert on world politics or the world economy... I try to foresee things by looking at 'human nature'. And I like to 'learn' as I go along and am learning a lot here on this Topic.

As you say, the USA is still the worlds leader, and just like the alpha wolf, they will want to stay there. How far they will go to stay top dog, I do not know? But I do not see America prepared to play 'second fiddle' to any nation on this earth at 'almost' any costs. And maybe at 'all' costs? Just the impression I get of America.

2005 will be a very interesting year... and one that I would not want to predict, and would not discount anything 'happening'.

2005? George bush might take out 2 more countries -- Iran is one? It he takes out LOS, I'll move to Vietnam!

[chuchok]

2005? George bush might take out 2 more countries -- Iran is one?  It he takes out LOS, I'll move to Vietnam!  

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think before Iran there will be some 'sabre rattling' and the USA will first have to 'test the waters' for world reaction especially China's reaction... as China has financial interests in Iran. Taiwan is also an interesting situation... ???

I think a lot depends on USA thinking/intentions about China. If there is any thought/intention of military actions... the sooner the better for the USA. Not good for them to be thinking 10-15 years down the line... when/if China is much more powerful...

America was prepared to go to an all out atomic war with Russia during the Cuban crisis... They will be prepared to go the same way again... of that I am sure.

Harmonica... I don't think LOS is on the list... so don't panic. Yet!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Rav, I can't agree here. The USA was never prepared to go all out Atomic war. It has been revealed that JFK was in constant dialogue with the Russian president during the crisis. They made a deal whereby the Yanks pulled out of parts of Turkey and the Ruskies turned their Missiles around. The whole episode made JFK look like a tough guy and it only came out officially in the last few years .JFK was a smart politician.

As for China, any idea how big the Chinese armed forces are?

[chuchok]

Rav, I can't agree here. The USA was never prepared to go all out Atomic war. It has been revealed that JFK was in constant dialogue with the Russian president during the crisis. They made a deal whereby the Yanks pulled out of parts of Turkey and the Ruskies turned their Missiles around. The whole episode made JFK look like a tough guy and it only came out officially in the last few years .JFK was a smart politician.

As for China, any idea how big the Chinese armed forces are?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I would think over 1,000,000 armed soldiers... PLUS

You might be interested to take al look HERE.

It would not matter too much about 'armed forces' as I don't think America would 'dream' of invading a country with 1,200,000,000 people.

Interesting about the USA never prepared to go to atomic war with Russia. I saw a program from archives, showing that 180 planes were loaded with atomic weapons and ready to GO! But who can believe what one hears/reads about that particular episode?

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last time I looked,China had 2.5 million...Christ,thats more than half the population of NZ

[Yangpuss]

Back to base!  Yangpuss, have you done anything to your CD holdings based on what has transpired here?

Have your questions been answered, or is there more confusion than before?

Foreigners and foreign banks -- where do you stand on this now?

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Harmonica,

I'm still just listening and waiting. For a reason too complicated to go into, I haven't been able to do anything with my money in the last month even if I had figured out what to do. I appreciate these discussions very much. I think you may very well be right, Harmonica. Though I don't think you're right that the dollar will "skyrocket," I think that's almost inconceivable. But it may well go up a bit, and that will be the opportunity to move out of the dollar into some other stable currency that isn't going to put me through all this anxiety. But exactly which currency(ies) to move into...this I still haven't decided, although I feel strongly that it should be a pegged currency.

I think you are correct about Gates and Buffett and the pseudo-experts. I would tend to believe the opposite of what they say about the future of the dollar. I mean, how can they say things like that, knowing the impact that their statements will have on the market and people's perceptions. Perhaps they are trying to drive the dollar down so they can feast on the wildebeast, as you say.

Right now, I'm planning on going to Vietnam very soon and hopefully will want to stay there. So I'm trying to find out if I could open a VN bank account and if my money would be safe there. Have only just started to research this. Maybe that would be a good idea, maybe not.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Very pleased to hear that you did not panic and divest your investment CDs -- as you may well have noticed, the USD Index has rallied from the December 29th bottom. Whether this bottom is significant, we are yet to find out; but the rally has at least afforded you some respite and that's a good thing to have. Some space to think!

Why not open that account with HSBC in Singapore (physically, as opposed to a pseudo-Sing account in LOS)? Its easy to do -- via mail actually! Hold the currency of your choice -- check out the website. This way you dispense with a plethora of liabilities that plague the foreigner living in this region.

Best of luck

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Harmonica, what's special about HSBC in Singapore? Why is it better to open an account there instead of HSBC in Bangkok or Ho Chi Minh?

[LaoPo]

Yangpuss,

sorry, and I don't want to interfere with Harmonica's suggestion to open a bankaccount in S'pore, but I agree with that.

Why?, well, S'pore is a more 'safer' place to put your money than TH or Vietnam I would think. You never know what will happen in a lifetime and you might want, at a certain stage, to withdraw or act quickly, in certain circumstances, whatever they might be.

To do so, it would be more complicated in countries like TH and Vietnam; you might want to consider Hong Kong as well.

Singapore and Hong Kong are much more international structured than the other 2 countries and more used to do International Banking. You could open a small bankaccount in Vietnam if you wish to live there (right?), but would like to have 'most of it' elsewhere. At least that is what I would do in the same circumstances.

Just my personal opinion.

LaoPo

[Braccobaldo]

good advice from LaoPo...and I prefer Singapore....no doubt!!!!

Also my opinion.