Tourism - The Worst Is Yet To Come

[Mobi]

As well as their annoying habit of talking up property market, the local press have habitually played down the drop in tourist numbers, quoting figure like a 20% reduction, when anyone can see it is far worse than that.

But browsing through the newspapers over the past few days, I notice that even the press is now predicting a dire 2009.

Some facts recently reported that spring to mind:

Hotel occupancy in December is usually a MINIMUM of 65%. This December it is 10%

Hotel occupancy in Phuket is down by 70%.

Reports from the southern resorts state that the tourist business is in a worse recession than during the aftermath of the Tsunami.

A report from a hotel booking service that all current visitors booked before the airport closures. There have been nil bookings since for the 2009 season.

And on a slightly different tack, today's Business Post ran a story that the country's exports will be hit hard in 2009 by the global recession.

The bubble is about to burst and it could be worse than the last one.

What say you?

[mommysboy]

As well as their annoying habit of talking up property market, the local press have habitually played down the drop in tourist numbers, quoting figure like a 20% reduction, when anyone can see it is far worse than that.

But browsing through the newspapers over the past few days, I notice that even the press is now predicting a dire 2009.

Some facts recently reported that spring to mind:

Hotel occupancy in December is usually a MINIMUM of 65%. This December it is 10%

Hotel occupancy in Phuket is down by 70%.

Reports from the southern resorts state that the tourist business is in a worse recession than during the aftermath of the Tsunami.

A report from a hotel booking service that all current visitors booked before the airport closures. There have been nil bookings since for the 2009 season.

And on a slightly different tack, today's Business Post ran a story that the country's exports will be hit hard in 2009 by the global recession.

The bubble is about to burst and it could be worse than the last one.

What say you?

Yes this would mirror what is happening all over the world.

It's true that Thailand was not directly exposed to the credit crunch but this is immaterial, the credit crunch was just the needle that burst the balloon, not the balloon itself.

Bubble! you name it everything has been overvalued.

Thailand is vulnerable because 70% of it's GDP comes from exporting- demand has slumped. Then there's is tourism, which many contend is more than the 6% often quoted, whatever, it too is in dire straits as we know. To cap it all, the Govt has not delivered on internal projects = no public spending.

So yes, the predictions are not sensationalist for once, and are coming true.

[dumball]

I have a feeling newspaper reporters are taking a sly peak in TV , how else could they start to get some of their facts straightened away ? Thais , like some posters here , are far too defensive about the truth concerning thailand and the current down spiral it is in , only if and when people start to face the truth can any action be taken to help rectify the situation .Being an osterich , only shows what part of the anatomy they are thinking and talking through .

[ronz28]

I say we are waiting to see if the airlines will cut their ticket prices after their unfavorable fuel hedges expire. Then if Thailand redirects their politics away from abusing tourists we will make a trip to Thailand. I am not taking any baloney from airlines or political groups so if that continues, we will vacation in the U.S.

[h90]

As well as their annoying habit of talking up property market, the local press have habitually played down the drop in tourist numbers, quoting figure like a 20% reduction, when anyone can see it is far worse than that.

But browsing through the newspapers over the past few days, I notice that even the press is now predicting a dire 2009.

Some facts recently reported that spring to mind:

Hotel occupancy in December is usually a MINIMUM of 65%. This December it is 10%

Hotel occupancy in Phuket is down by 70%.

Reports from the southern resorts state that the tourist business is in a worse recession than during the aftermath of the Tsunami.

A report from a hotel booking service that all current visitors booked before the airport closures. There have been nil bookings since for the 2009 season.

And on a slightly different tack, today's Business Post ran a story that the country's exports will be hit hard in 2009 by the global recession.

The bubble is about to burst and it could be worse than the last one.

What say you?

Well it can't be that bad, today my mother spent a few hours with booking...

VIE-BKK 2007 she got for 850 Euro now nothing below 950

Hotel (same room) she was 2006 we could negotiate the price down to 100 USD per night is now 300 Euro (no discount possible).

Some hotels give a discount but the price is still higher than 2006.

So my cynic thinking is that they must be almost full......

(on the airplane you can book now while the years before everything was full)

The whole idea must change:

Hotel staff: lovely looking women who can are not allowed to decide anything, English what they pick up from customer, salary 6000 Baht per month. they can't even tell you were the pier is or the skytrain but they try to charge 300 euro per day from the customer.

[sassienie]

As well as their annoying habit of talking up property market, the local press have habitually played down the drop in tourist numbers, quoting figure like a 20% reduction, when anyone can see it is far worse than that.

But browsing through the newspapers over the past few days, I notice that even the press is now predicting a dire 2009.

Some facts recently reported that spring to mind:

Hotel occupancy in December is usually a MINIMUM of 65%. This December it is 10%

Hotel occupancy in Phuket is down by 70%.

Reports from the southern resorts state that the tourist business is in a worse recession than during the aftermath of the Tsunami.

A report from a hotel booking service that all current visitors booked before the airport closures. There have been nil bookings since for the 2009 season.

And on a slightly different tack, today's Business Post ran a story that the country's exports will be hit hard in 2009 by the global recession.

The bubble is about to burst and it could be worse than the last one.

What say you?

Well it can't be that bad, today my mother spent a few hours with booking...

VIE-BKK 2007 she got for 850 Euro now nothing below 950

Hotel (same room) she was 2006 we could negotiate the price down to 100 USD per night is now 300 Euro (no discount possible).

Some hotels give a discount but the price is still higher than 2006.

So my cynic thinking is that they must be almost full......

(on the airplane you can book now while the years before everything was full)

The whole idea must change:

Hotel staff: lovely looking women who can are not allowed to decide anything, English what they pick up from customer, salary 6000 Baht per month. they can't even tell you were the pier is or the skytrain but they try to charge 300 euro per day from the customer.

The thinking is not that these hotels are fully booked, but rather that because of lack of business they cannot afford to reduce prices or give discounts. In fact probably need to try and increase prices so they won`t go down.

I doubt if this will work and many will go under anyway.

[Dakhar]

As well as their annoying habit of talking up property market, the local press have habitually played down the drop in tourist numbers, quoting figure like a 20% reduction, when anyone can see it is far worse than that.

But browsing through the newspapers over the past few days, I notice that even the press is now predicting a dire 2009.

Some facts recently reported that spring to mind:

Hotel occupancy in December is usually a MINIMUM of 65%. This December it is 10%

Hotel occupancy in Phuket is down by 70%.

Reports from the southern resorts state that the tourist business is in a worse recession than during the aftermath of the Tsunami.

A report from a hotel booking service that all current visitors booked before the airport closures. There have been nil bookings since for the 2009 season.

And on a slightly different tack, today's Business Post ran a story that the country's exports will be hit hard in 2009 by the global recession.

The bubble is about to burst and it could be worse than the last one.

What say you?

Well it can't be that bad, today my mother spent a few hours with booking...

VIE-BKK 2007 she got for 850 Euro now nothing below 950

Hotel (same room) she was 2006 we could negotiate the price down to 100 USD per night is now 300 Euro (no discount possible).

Some hotels give a discount but the price is still higher than 2006.

So my cynic thinking is that they must be almost full......

(on the airplane you can book now while the years before everything was full)

The whole idea must change:

Hotel staff: lovely looking women who can are not allowed to decide anything, English what they pick up from customer, salary 6000 Baht per month. they can't even tell you were the pier is or the skytrain but they try to charge 300 euro per day from the customer.

The thinking is not that these hotels are fully booked, but rather that because of lack of business they cannot afford to reduce prices or give discounts. In fact probably need to try and increase prices so they won`t go down.

I doubt if this will work and many will go under anyway.

Yes, traditional business practices in Thailand are.... raise the price (just look at the gold card fiasco)

[siam4ever]

Does it get any better than this for those of us who live here? Happy days are here again. Though nothing can make up for all the pain suffered the last 5 years during the influx of foreigners and the trauma that comes with that, it looks like things are getting better and we just might be living in a South-east Asian country again instead of the little Sweden or Manchester that many parts of Thailand were becoming.

[dumball]

Does it get any better than this for those of us who live here? Happy days are here again. Though nothing can make up for all the pain suffered the last 5 years during the influx of foreigners and the trauma that comes with that, it looks like things are getting better and we just might be living in a South-east Asian country again instead of the little Sweden or Manchester that many parts of Thailand were becoming.

Could you please put your brain in gear and re-read what you have writen here as a very selfish person , tourism is needed for the THAI NATIONALS , not what your particular idealism is for the perfect place to park your derriere . The less fortunate of Thailand garnered many attributes they never had before , want your special place ? Buy a deserted island some place , hope you will be content then , don't think your thoughts will be missed by too many .

[keestha]

Does it get any better than this for those of us who live here? Happy days are here again. Though nothing can make up for all the pain suffered the last 5 years during the influx of foreigners and the trauma that comes with that, it looks like things are getting better and we just might be living in a South-east Asian country again instead of the little Sweden or Manchester that many parts of Thailand were becoming.

But please consider putting an extra lock on your door, because the economical slowdown which is partly due to the downturn trend in tourism, could lead to an increase in criminality. I wouldn't want your newly found happyness to be disturbed in any way.

[Rimmer]

The entire world is headed for a recession the likes of which have not been seen since the great depression.

Thailand is not immune by any means as it generates a large potion of wealth from exports and tourism. Regretfully the world is going to have to eat a great big sh*t sandwich and we will all have to take a bite.

[barryofthailand]

Does it get any better than this for those of us who live here? Happy days are here again. Though nothing can make up for all the pain suffered the last 5 years during the influx of foreigners and the trauma that comes with that, it looks like things are getting better and we just might be living in a South-east Asian country again instead of the little Sweden or Manchester that many parts of Thailand were becoming.

Could you please put your brain in gear and re-read what you have writen here as a very selfish person , tourism is needed for the THAI NATIONALS , not what your particular idealism is for the perfect place to park your derriere . The less fortunate of Thailand garnered many attributes they never had before , want your special place ? Buy a deserted island some place , hope you will be content then , don't think your thoughts will be missed by too many .

I'm afraid your wrong. Thai people can care less about tourism. their are only a hand full of provinces that are tour provinces. Most of Thailands income comes from exports, not tourism. I live in korat and this is not a tour province and people up here do fine.

Barry

[imaneggspurt]

Does it get any better than this for those of us who live here? Happy days are here again. Though nothing can make up for all the pain suffered the last 5 years during the influx of foreigners and the trauma that comes with that, it looks like things are getting better and we just might be living in a South-east Asian country again instead of the little Sweden or Manchester that many parts of Thailand were becoming.

Could you please put your brain in gear and re-read what you have writen here as a very selfish person , tourism is needed for the THAI NATIONALS , not what your particular idealism is for the perfect place to park your derriere . The less fortunate of Thailand garnered many attributes they never had before , want your special place ? Buy a deserted island some place , hope you will be content then , don't think your thoughts will be missed by too many .

Ill echo that, i remember living in Devon and a lot of locals would hate the traffic/population increase in the summer months, Its usually low intelligence/selfish types that dont realise others are making their living in the high season,.

[imaneggspurt]

Does it get any better than this for those of us who live here? Happy days are here again. Though nothing can make up for all the pain suffered the last 5 years during the influx of foreigners and the trauma that comes with that, it looks like things are getting better and we just might be living in a South-east Asian country again instead of the little Sweden or Manchester that many parts of Thailand were becoming.

Could you please put your brain in gear and re-read what you have writen here as a very selfish person , tourism is needed for the THAI NATIONALS , not what your particular idealism is for the perfect place to park your derriere . The less fortunate of Thailand garnered many attributes they never had before , want your special place ? Buy a deserted island some place , hope you will be content then , don't think your thoughts will be missed by too many .

I'm afraid your wrong. Thai people can care less about tourism. their are only a hand full of provinces that are tour provinces. Most of Thailands income comes from exports, not tourism. I live in korat and this is not a tour province and people up here do fine.

Barry

Yes ,ignorance is a bliss isnt it,.

[Soutpeel]

Does it get any better than this for those of us who live here? Happy days are here again. Though nothing can make up for all the pain suffered the last 5 years during the influx of foreigners and the trauma that comes with that, it looks like things are getting better and we just might be living in a South-east Asian country again instead of the little Sweden or Manchester that many parts of Thailand were becoming.

And what gives you more right to be here over the persons from "little Sweden or Manchester"

If you are Thai, I apologise, but if you are a farang without PR or citizenship, the farangs you find so distasteful have just a much right to be be here as you have. As another poster had stated go and buy yourself your own "desert Island" and you can decide who and who doesnt come to your idealised paradise..

[siam4ever]

Oh, I was here when Thai people were happy making thai food, not swedish pancakes and bangers and mash. They'll do just fine without the drama and trauma of tourists lapping about. The absence of Europeans amazingly doesn't mean the disappearance of the Thai spirit. Sure, some greed will be left unfed and that quirks and irksome pain to some folk. But, only for a moment. It's all good!

[taxexile]

thais are an extremely resourceful people , possibly partly due to the fact that they have no benefit system to fall back on.

necessity is the mother of invention , and i believe they will relocate , regroup , respond and recover from this downturn just as quickly as they did after the crash in the 90's.

they may stumble and trip a bit , but they wont fall.

western countries with their high proportion of benefit addicts who have lost the ability to fend for themselves , and the red tape and endless legislation that prevents easy new startups , will find it much harder to bounce back.

it may be cloudy for a while , but the sky is definitely not falling here

political turmoil will do much more harm than the global downturn.

[Soutpeel]

It's all good!

It may be all good in your little reality....but go and try a Thai national that who works in the hospitality and related industries who gets laid off from their job because there are no tourists visiting.

Edited December 14, 2008 by Soutpeel

[ozinthailand]

SOM NAM NA !!!!!!!!!!

[ozinthailand]

It's all good!

It may be all good in your little reality....but go and try a Thai national that who works in the hospitality and related industries who gets laid off from their job because there are no tourists visiting.

to the people who say the biggest industry is exports <deleted>!!!

think about all the suppliers to hotels, and what people do who come to thailand to stay in hotels, they come here from many diverse industries, there will be hundreds of thousands of thais laid off as a direct result of the tourism impact....this is a domino affect......

down turn in tourism, means

less washing of sheets, laundry

less food eaten in hotel restuarants, suppliers, growers affected

less investment in Thailand (political climate too unstable).....

Less trucks on road delivering goods to hotels....

less tours by tourists

FYI most countries travel advisories now state not to travel to Thailand, in China all package tours in whole of China to Thailand have been cancelled....

THAI PEOPLE do not think for tomorow, "stup is as stupid does" comes to mind......think about Bali after the bomb blasts .... its exactly the same, the whole economy there nearly collapsed, it has taken 7 years to recover, the same will happen to Thailand....

[Rimmer]

It's all good!

It may be all good in your little reality....but go and try a Thai national that who works in the hospitality and related industries who gets laid off from their job because there are no tourists visiting.

bah

to the people who say the biggest industry is exports <deleted>!!!

BIG SNIP

THAI PEOPLE do not think for tomorow, "stup is as stupid does" comes to mind......think about Bali after the bomb blasts .... its exactly the same, the whole economy there nearly collapsed, it has taken 7 years to recover, the same will happen to Thailand....

People will respect your opinion a lot more if you don't shout and swear.

[patklang]

Tourism will be down everywhere in the world due to currency exchange,low interest rate on savings,stocks down,greedy airlines etc.even the shed bars in pattaya are trying to get 130 baht for lady drink <deleted>,do they think they are gogo abrs or something,and rip offs are getting worse.

[JimsKnight]

Wait and see gentlement, wait and see.

Siam4ever is a partly right.

I've travelled through the heartlands and non-tourist areas of Thailand and really aren't the golden children anymore.

When asked a few thais who work in the hotels and guesthouses what they will do if TSHTF and tourism collapses the answer is simple.

'We go back to the farms.'

Pretty simple really, hard graft for around 200 baht a day pays the rent for the thais and then some.

Thailand may well be set for the fall, but these people will bounce back pretty well, more than say certain European countries alas.

[midas]

I'm afraid your wrong. Thai people can care less about tourism. their are only a hand full of provinces that are tour provinces. Most of Thailands income comes from exports, not tourism. I live in korat and this is not a tour province and people up here do fine.

Barry

what a naive statement. Is Korat the official measure of Thailand's prosperity ?

I wonder how many Thai's in Korat are up to their necks in debt just like the rest of the country ?

[monty]

Thailand has a big ability to absorb workers back into the country side.

However this time I reckon it's going to be to much to absorb.

Pretty much all sectors are laying of massive amounts of people or will very soon! Tourism, manufacturing, export, car business...

[ozinthailand]

It's all good!

It may be all good in your little reality....but go and try a Thai national that who works in the hospitality and related industries who gets laid off from their job because there are no tourists visiting.

People who say the biggest industry is exports <deleted>!!!

THAI PEOPLE do not think for tomorow, "stup is as stupid does" comes to mind......think about Bali after the bomb blasts .... its exactly the same, the whole economy there nearly collapsed, it has taken 7 years to recover, the same will happen to Thailand....

People will respect your opinion a lot more if you don't shout and swear.

sh`out and swear, last time I checked <deleted> isnt swearing, its slang, and this is internet, turn down yr volume !

And one other point! what about all he thai people with apartments and vacation rentals who were depending on tourists to survive on........ how many bankrupcies or will default on their mortgagaes ????

I think alot!!!

[mommysboy]

It's all good!

It may be all good in your little reality....but go and try a Thai national that who works in the hospitality and related industries who gets laid off from their job because there are no tourists visiting.

to the people who say the biggest industry is exports <deleted>!!!

think about all the suppliers to hotels, and what people do who come to thailand to stay in hotels, they come here from many diverse industries, there will be hundreds of thousands of thais laid off as a direct result of the tourism impact....this is a domino affect......

down turn in tourism, means

less washing of sheets, laundry

less food eaten in hotel restuarants, suppliers, growers affected

less investment in Thailand (political climate too unstable).....

Less trucks on road delivering goods to hotels....

less tours by tourists

FYI most countries travel advisories now state not to travel to Thailand, in China all package tours in whole of China to Thailand have been cancelled....

THAI PEOPLE do not think for tomorow, "stup is as stupid does" comes to mind......think about Bali after the bomb blasts .... its exactly the same, the whole economy there nearly collapsed, it has taken 7 years to recover, the same will happen to Thailand....

Hi OZ, what happened kangaroo beat you up or something?

I put the typeface in it's due size.

70% of Thai GDP comes from exports vs 7% tourism, but both are in freefall and negative growth is even being bandied about as a possibility.

Long live the Queen!

[pichai]

I'm afraid your wrong. Thai people can care less about tourism. their are only a hand full of provinces that are tour provinces. Most of Thailands income comes from exports, not tourism. I live in korat and this is not a tour province and people up here do fine.

Barry

what a naive statement. Is Korat the official measure of Thailand's prosperity ?

I wonder how many Thai's in Korat are up to their necks in debt just like the rest of the country ?

Totally agreed with you Midas.

However, Barry do you know that the prices of rice has gone down so much that almost all rice farmers in Chiangmai are losing money this time round.

[Mobi]

I'm afraid your wrong. Thai people can care less about tourism. their are only a hand full of provinces that are tour provinces. Most of Thailands income comes from exports, not tourism. I live in korat and this is not a tour province and people up here do fine.

Barry

Well let's see how important tourism is.

According to BOT and TAT data, between 200- to 2004, tourism accounted for 7.7 % of GDP (Gross Domestic Product), and created directly or indirectly 3.3 million jobs, or 8.4 % of the workforce.

The World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) quotes a figure for tourism of 11.7 % of GDP, with gross revenues of 821 billion Baht .

TAT's own figures for 2007 show tourism revenues at 929 billion Baht.

Wikepedia shows Tourism as 6% of GDP.

So you pays your money and takes your choice. My guess is some figures are "pure" tourism figures, whereas others include businesses indirectly connected to the tourism business, which would undoubtedly fail if tourism disappeared.

Any way you look at it, it is one of the major drivers of Thai economy, and to dismiss it as not being applicable to a particular province is just plain stupid. What happens when all those Korat workers engaged in the tourist industry return to their home villages to find work? And what happens to all those families in Korat who rely on monthly subsidies from the young men and women working in the tourist industry?

To put it in perspective, tourism accounts from anywhere between 6% to 11.7 % of GDP, and agriculture, according to Wilkepedia, is 11.4%. of GDP.

So are we saying that agriculture is not worth worrying about?

[Old Croc]

Good post Mobi.

You spelt it out for the head-in-the-sand posters in the country who can't comprehend how a slowdown of this magnitude can affect all of Thailand.