harris campaign, clean up on aisle Electoral College

[12DrinkMore]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/ukfs_news/hi/new...500/7799541.stm

This is, IMO, a BIG development.

I have not yet seen any critical comment on this in the press. Possibly the Western media are too occupied with their own forecasts of doom. But if this goes ahead and the Chinese allow their currency to be used in settlement of trade inside of Asia, then I think that this could lead to the adoption of it as THE preferred currency of trade in Asia, dropping the USD and Euro in the process.

Most of the economies in Asia are run by the Chinese. Long term financial stability in the region is surely paramount for them and relying on the bankrupt USD or faltering EUR is a risk which trading the Yuan could reduce dramatically.

My bets are on the Yuan being taken up rapidly, China could be a massive stabilising force in Asia, in the same way it has turned out to be a massive destabilising force in the West by financing the huge USD and Euro debts in the debtor nations.

[samui04]

Europe is in vacation until 2 jan.....

[chiang mai]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/ukfs_news/hi/new...500/7799541.stm

This is, IMO, a BIG development.

I have not yet seen any critical comment on this in the press. Possibly the Western media are too occupied with their own forecasts of doom. But if this goes ahead and the Chinese allow their currency to be used in settlement of trade inside of Asia, then I think that this could lead to the adoption of it as THE preferred currency of trade in Asia, dropping the USD and Euro in the process.

Most of the economies in Asia are run by the Chinese. Long term financial stability in the region is surely paramount for them and relying on the bankrupt USD or faltering EUR is a risk which trading the Yuan could reduce dramatically.

My bets are on the Yuan being taken up rapidly, China could be a massive stabilising force in Asia, in the same way it has turned out to be a massive destabilising force in the West by financing the huge USD and Euro debts in the debtor nations.

Asia's EURO equivalent in years to come (?) it's got to be a good thing for the region if not globally. In the short term it allows Asia to start to get away from its reliance on the dollar as a trading currency hence it lowers Asia's risk, provided China can get through the current crisis without suffering too much damage that is.

[12DrinkMore]

Asia's EURO equivalent in years to come (?) it's got to be a good thing for the region if not globally. In the short term it allows Asia to start to get away from its reliance on the dollar as a trading currency hence it lowers Asia's risk, provided China can get through the current crisis without suffering too much damage that is.

IMO China, with no foreign debts, is much better placed to ride this out. They are also in the position of being able to simply move the work force around to produce food or other goods that can be sold internally or externally. The rights of the individual are considerably less than the hallowed, very costly and very vocal rights of the western counterpart.

Until now the technical advances have been led from the West. Now China is quite capable of either paying for the expertise or developing its own. Once that competitive advantage has gone, the West only seems to be left with banks and lawyers. The banks have proven themselves to be utterly lacking in morality and certainly have not provided any added value to the economy. All the profits have now disappeared in humongous tax-payer financed bail-outs. And the legal mob have never had anything to offer anyway.

Another development is that for the first time in history China is moving a military force out of its territory, the navy is sailing to protect shipping against pirates. A few years ago that would have been a horror scenario for the States. Now it passes with no comment. China seems to be flexing its massive muscles and asserting its (maybe rightful) place on the globe.

Edited December 27, 2008 by 12DrinkMore

[HardenedSoul]

What next, I wonder Backing their currency with gold ?? Although China's heavily in bed with the Americans as far as investment's concerned, they're gonna look after themselves first. How long before they start selling off those US T-Bonds ?

[Naam]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/ukfs_news/hi/new...500/7799541.stm

This is, IMO, a BIG development.

I have not yet seen any critical comment on this in the press. Possibly the Western media are too occupied with their own forecasts of doom. But if this goes ahead and the Chinese allow their currency to be used in settlement of trade inside of Asia, then I think that this could lead to the adoption of it as THE preferred currency of trade in Asia, dropping the USD and Euro in the process.

Most of the economies in Asia are run by the Chinese. Long term financial stability in the region is surely paramount for them and relying on the bankrupt USD or faltering EUR is a risk which trading the Yuan could reduce dramatically.

My bets are on the Yuan being taken up rapidly, China could be a massive stabilising force in Asia, in the same way it has turned out to be a massive destabilising force in the West by financing the huge USD and Euro debts in the debtor nations.

based on prevailing circumstances the BBC writer produces science fiction. a currency with all the restrictions attached to the chinese currency as trading currency? give me a break please! these restrictions are the reason why CNY is undervalued.

removing the restrictions would cause a huge revaluation and a big loss in competitiveness.

[Naam]

What next, I wonder Backing their currency with gold ?? Although China's heavily in bed with the Americans as far as investment's concerned, they're gonna look after themselves first. How long before they start selling off those US T-Bonds ?

to whom will they sell UST and what will they do with the trade surplus US-Dollars? how long will it take for the U.S. to impose trade restrictions and jack up import duties on chinese goods if no more UST are bought?

[chiang mai]

Asia's EURO equivalent in years to come (?) it's got to be a good thing for the region if not globally. In the short term it allows Asia to start to get away from its reliance on the dollar as a trading currency hence it lowers Asia's risk, provided China can get through the current crisis without suffering too much damage that is.

IMO China, with no foreign debts, is much better placed to ride this out. They are also in the position of being able to simply move the work force around to produce food or other goods that can be sold internally or externally. The rights of the individual are considerably less than the hallowed, very costly and very vocal rights of the western counterpart.

Until now the technical advances have been led from the West. Now China is quite capable of either paying for the expertise or developing its own. Once that competitive advantage has gone, the West only seems to be left with banks and lawyers. The banks have proven themselves to be utterly lacking in morality and certainly have not provided any added value to the economy. All the profits have now disappeared in humongous tax-payer financed bail-outs. And the legal mob have never had anything to offer anyway.

Another development is that for the first time in history China is moving a military force out of its territory, the navy is sailing to protect shipping against pirates. A few years ago that would have been a horror scenario for the States. Now it passes with no comment. China seems to be flexing its massive muscles and asserting its (maybe rightful) place on the globe.

I read yesterday that China does have foreign debt that has surged of late and is now becoming a concern. Sorry no facts or figures on this one but should be easily found.

[Naam]

Asia's EURO equivalent in years to come (?) it's got to be a good thing for the region if not globally. In the short term it allows Asia to start to get away from its reliance on the dollar as a trading currency hence it lowers Asia's risk, provided China can get through the current crisis without suffering too much damage that is.

IMO China, with no foreign debts, is much better placed to ride this out. They are also in the position of being able to simply move the work force around to produce food or other goods that can be sold internally or externally. The rights of the individual are considerably less than the hallowed, very costly and very vocal rights of the western counterpart.

Until now the technical advances have been led from the West. Now China is quite capable of either paying for the expertise or developing its own. Once that competitive advantage has gone, the West only seems to be left with banks and lawyers. The banks have proven themselves to be utterly lacking in morality and certainly have not provided any added value to the economy. All the profits have now disappeared in humongous tax-payer financed bail-outs. And the legal mob have never had anything to offer anyway.

Another development is that for the first time in history China is moving a military force out of its territory, the navy is sailing to protect shipping against pirates. A few years ago that would have been a horror scenario for the States. Now it passes with no comment. China seems to be flexing its massive muscles and asserting its (maybe rightful) place on the globe.

I read yesterday that China does have foreign debt that has surged of late and is now becoming a concern. Sorry no facts or figures on this one but should be easily found.

one has to differentiate between China and chinese commercial entities. both have foreign debt. whereas the debt of China is miniscule compared to its GDP and reserves the debt of chinese entities is quite high and surging.

[PeaceBlondie]

First, the Japanese were going to take over the world. Then the NIKEI index fell, never again to regain its heights.

Now the Chinese are coming. All 1,295,456,101 of them. I am reading about western China, and its contrast against eastern China. Yes, the Chinese are coming, but I doubt as fast as the rumours say.

[Briggsy]

I would wait for fuller details and experiences. The Yuan is still far from a freely-convertible currency.

[chiang mai]

Asia's EURO equivalent in years to come (?) it's got to be a good thing for the region if not globally. In the short term it allows Asia to start to get away from its reliance on the dollar as a trading currency hence it lowers Asia's risk, provided China can get through the current crisis without suffering too much damage that is.

IMO China, with no foreign debts, is much better placed to ride this out. They are also in the position of being able to simply move the work force around to produce food or other goods that can be sold internally or externally. The rights of the individual are considerably less than the hallowed, very costly and very vocal rights of the western counterpart.

Until now the technical advances have been led from the West. Now China is quite capable of either paying for the expertise or developing its own. Once that competitive advantage has gone, the West only seems to be left with banks and lawyers. The banks have proven themselves to be utterly lacking in morality and certainly have not provided any added value to the economy. All the profits have now disappeared in humongous tax-payer financed bail-outs. And the legal mob have never had anything to offer anyway.

Another development is that for the first time in history China is moving a military force out of its territory, the navy is sailing to protect shipping against pirates. A few years ago that would have been a horror scenario for the States. Now it passes with no comment. China seems to be flexing its massive muscles and asserting its (maybe rightful) place on the globe.

I read yesterday that China does have foreign debt that has surged of late and is now becoming a concern. Sorry no facts or figures on this one but should be easily found.

one has to differentiate between China and chinese commercial entities. both have foreign debt. whereas the debt of China is miniscule compared to its GDP and reserves the debt of chinese entities is quite high and surging.

Apologies for not being more clear, that is what I had intended to infer.

[samui04]

What next, I wonder Backing their currency with gold ?? Although China's heavily in bed with the Americans as far as investment's concerned, they're gonna look after themselves first. How long before they start selling off those US T-Bonds ?

to whom will they sell UST and what will they do with the trade surplus US-Dollars? how long will it take for the U.S. to impose trade restrictions and jack up import duties on chinese goods if no more UST are bought?

They could just stop buying US Bonds and switch to Germans ones...

[churchill]

and are the Thai Government tracking the Baht agaist the Yuan rather than the Dollar , which is why it is presently overvalued ?

I imagine there is a lot of trade between the 2 so perhaps they have reached an understanding ?

[lannarebirth]

Any of you people ever been to China?

[chiang mai]

Any of you people ever been to China?

I lived there for three years.

[torrenova]

based on prevailing circumstances the BBC writer produces science fiction. a currency with all the restrictions attached to the chinese currency as trading currency? give me a break please! these restrictions are the reason why CNY is undervalued.

removing the restrictions would cause a huge revaluation and a big loss in competitiveness.

Ain't that the truth !

[Briggsy]

based on prevailing circumstances the BBC writer produces science fiction. a currency with all the restrictions attached to the chinese currency as trading currency? give me a break please! these restrictions are the reason why CNY is undervalued.

removing the restrictions would cause a huge revaluation and a big loss in competitiveness.

Ain't that the truth !

Indeed when the Uighur black-market currency traders stop hissing at you outside Chinese banks, I might start to consider the implications of a freely traded Yuan.

[LaoPo]

Any of you people ever been to China?

Since some 30 years. I have seen and witnessed the enormous mind-boggling changes.

No one, who hasn't been there, can even imagine what has been accomplished in such a short period of time.

The entire west has it's mouth full of critics about China and it's rulers; many of the criticism is true but it's also true that nobody on this planet has experience in running a country with 1,300.000.000 (Billion) people which lifted itself from it's ashes in a mere 30 years from deep poverty....nobody, but the Chinese themselves.

Put all the people of greater Europe (710 million) and the USA (300 million) together and you're still 300 million people short to reach the number in China...

It is impossible to install democracy (also monetary democracy) in such a short period (look what's happening in "democratic" Thailand...) and it needs time but in 30-50 years from now a certain form of democracy will prevail in China.

A long time you say....? Not if one looks at the history of the country of many thousands of years.

Sorry to be off topic but it has to be seen in a historic perspective, also regarding the Yuan, if one wants to see things clear, if possible at all

LaoPo

[yongli]

I wonder how this going to work?

RMB denominated business accounts will become available and a bond market of RMB bonds accessible to foreigners?

Or are we supposed to bring cash for the trade.

So are we then getting a fully convertible RMB .. I believe quite a run would happen.

So I guess, they would continue to try to control the exchange. More complicated - I think even a bit scary. Lot's of under the table dealings ...

Actually I don't believe that the world is helped by RMB denominated trade unless they really make some significant changes and get rid of the control freak.

Why would other countries (other than China), that now hold significant amounts of USD reserves not be trying to get rid of them, if they can directly use RMB?

What I really dislike about the article is the idea of having some countries being allowed to trade in RMBs while other's wouldn't. Doesn't sound like a free market and it sounds like more trouble to me.

The Chinese for years piled up those USD bonds given to them for real products made with real commodities and real energy. To support their exports they let the US supply them paper and then paper again.

On the other hand the US only paid lip service to a floating of the RMB. As far as I am concerned the Chinese policy of exchange rate control was supported by the US. Just it is not sustainable.

That is why they are having a problem now in the first place.

It was incredible to see the inflation in China last year into mid of this year. They were talking about 8% inflation. But what I have seen looked more like prices for food rising by 20 to 30 %. Pork almost doubled!

Edited January 1, 2009 by yongli

[HardenedSoul]

to whom will they sell UST and what will they do with the trade surplus US-Dollars? how long will it take for the U.S. to impose trade restrictions and jack up import duties on chinese goods if no more UST are bought?

To the same people I sold my shoebox West London flat to at the top of the market . . . colloquially referred to as "The Greater Fool" . . .

There are always buyers - I mean, the sovereign wealth funds bought post-writedown Merrill, Morgan and Lehman stock when you or I would've laughed the respective CFOs out of our offices and released the hounds.

The Chinese are widely credited with forcing the US Treasury to take Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae into conservatorship and although they're unlikely to dump everything, I think it's fair to say that the forthcoming economic stimulus measures won't be paid for by the fruit of the Yuan printing presses. The US cannot dictate terms in its current predicament and the Chinese are known to be reluctant to buy any more of their mickey mouse bonds. Paulson's repeated pleas for the yuan to appreciate against the dollar have gone largely ignored - I can't see the situation changing any time soon. Why should it ? They're taking care of number one . . .

[12DrinkMore]

I can't see the situation changing any time soon. Why should it ? They're taking care of number one . . .

And so would I.

Here's an interesting prediction http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/2009-Financi...on-t233146.html look at number 10.

Consider the difference in mentality between the Chinese and the West. The Chinese will take a long term multi year view and work slowly but surely towards it. The west has decreased their long term view to approximately 2 milliseconds.

The economies in the west are heading into the doldrums for at least the next three years, so these export markets are not going to supply any growth for Asia, but will still provide a considerable amount of trade. But where is there a massive potential to sell Chinese manufactured goods? Yep, right here in Asia. And how best to develop the economies here? Yep, start trading in the Yuan. Next step? Yep, you got it, lend out Yuan to the Asian countries so that they have the money to buy the goods, stimulating both the Asian consumer markets and the Asian industries. Slowly but surely the Yuan will become a major currency.

"Oh!", comes the cry, "but it is not a freely convertible currency, so this will never happen". Hmm, this is surely a western attitude, the Chinese are the Chinese and they will determine exactly when, how and to what extent that move takes place. They will certainly not throw it to the currency speculators in the west and put it on the roulette wheel in the Great Global Casino, commonly know as the stock market, only the stupid foreigners would do that....

The hugely inflated by speculation commodity prices are dropping fast. If I was China, I would now be stockpiling these whilst the west is looking the other way and speculating on further falling prices, surely assisting the Chinese in the process? I believe there was recently a report that they were buying up oil... They certainly have more than a handful of USDs to do it.

The Chinese must be utterly amazed, as indeed I am, at the vane attempt to rescue the car manufacturers in Western countries. This is another futile wast of money in a battle to keep a failing industry alive in an ICU for a a year. With already more cars than people able to drive them, where on earth do they see the profit potential, let alone any growth?

I wish I could be sitting pretty like the Chinese, watching the increasingly frantic attempts of the western governments to prop-up the terminally crippled and crumbling economies. And the increasingly frantic attempts by the speculators to find another currency or asset to "short" in the hope of making a profit out of more misery. In the current economic climate, selling short is surely the unstoppable weapon of mass financial destruction.

So, to pose a question, "what is there in the west worth saving or maybe even harder, what can be saved?"

My forecast is that in five years time the economies and living standard in Asia will be improving steadily, with a huge population of individuals prepared to work hard in manufacturing industries to afford a few luxuries and holidays, all money spent in Asia. And with an attitude that "I am responsible for MY life and success". (look at the Thais, if they loose a job, then they go back to work on the farm, open a noodle stand or sell goods, anything to earn a few thousand Baht to live on, etc. No sponging off the State)

In the west living standards will decline, as individuals are overwhelmed by the burden of taxes and an attitude that the State is responsible and should take care of them.

I am VERY glad to be living here in Thailand, pity about the GBP, but even at the current desperately low rate I am ready to import more when the speculators wind out of shorting the GBP and move to the EUR, giving us a brief respite.

And for a little light reading, try "The Art of War" Sun Tzu, complete free text is available http://www.gutenberg.org/etext/132

Oh, and a Very Happy and Prosperous New Year! :D

[12DrinkMore]

And further to my last post, just caught this one

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets...mulus-hope.html

"India’s iron-ore exports in November doubled from the previous month as China, the world’s biggest consumer of the material, increased purchases. China is spending 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) to stimulate its sagging economy, raising expectations of increased metals and steel consumption"

[HardenedSoul]

Spot on, mate . . .

[12DrinkMore]

More on this theme

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-12/...nt_10558780.htm

[thaihome]

Any of you people ever been to China?

Since some 30 years. I have seen and witnessed the enormous mind-boggling changes.

No one, who hasn't been there, can even imagine what has been accomplished in such a short period of time.

The entire west has it's mouth full of critics about China and it's rulers; many of the criticism is true but it's also true that nobody on this planet has experience in running a country with 1,300.000.000 (Billion) people which lifted itself from it's ashes in a mere 30 years from deep poverty....nobody, but the Chinese themselves.

Put all the people of greater Europe (710 million) and the USA (300 million) together and you're still 300 million people short to reach the number in China...

It is impossible to install democracy (also monetary democracy) in such a short period (look what's happening in "democratic" Thailand...) and it needs time but in 30-50 years from now a certain form of democracy will prevail in China.

A long time you say....? Not if one looks at the history of the country of many thousands of years.

Sorry to be off topic but it has to be seen in a historic perspective, also regarding the Yuan, if one wants to see things clear, if possible at all

LaoPo

Should note that about 1 billion of the 1.3 still live in those ashes, only about 300 million have recieved any benefit from these "enormous mind-boggling changes" and over 100 million of those are migrant workers that don't live in the best of conditions.

TH

[think_too_mut]

Any of you people ever been to China?

Since some 30 years. I have seen and witnessed the enormous mind-boggling changes.

No one, who hasn't been there, can even imagine what has been accomplished in such a short period of time.

The entire west has it's mouth full of critics about China and it's rulers; many of the criticism is true but it's also true that nobody on this planet has experience in running a country with 1,300.000.000 (Billion) people which lifted itself from it's ashes in a mere 30 years from deep poverty....nobody, but the Chinese themselves.

Put all the people of greater Europe (710 million) and the USA (300 million) together and you're still 300 million people short to reach the number in China...

It is impossible to install democracy (also monetary democracy) in such a short period (look what's happening in "democratic" Thailand...) and it needs time but in 30-50 years from now a certain form of democracy will prevail in China.

A long time you say....? Not if one looks at the history of the country of many thousands of years.

Sorry to be off topic but it has to be seen in a historic perspective, also regarding the Yuan, if one wants to see things clear, if possible at all

LaoPo

Should note that about 1 billion of the 1.3 still live in those ashes, only about 300 million have recieved any benefit from these "enormous mind-boggling changes" and over 100 million of those are migrant workers that don't live in the best of conditions.

TH

TH, you are right, about 1 billion of 1.3 billion Chinese live in stone age, or in an ox carts economy.

This is more about leadership when the lighthouse has it's light turned off.

China and most of the Asia now, after thousands of seminars and congreses about free economy, conducted by America and the rest of the West can confidently say: the teacher has his own problems.

Their standpoint could be: Ignore anything from the West. Their economy are GM, Ford and Chrysler, their finances are Lehman Brothers, Madoff and their democracy and justice is Guantanamo Bay.

What is the West doing different to Communist led government? Don't they try (with democratic fluff but goes the same way) to save the weak and incapable with tax payers money?

Easy to adopt in Asia. Just look what Thais are doing,still in a disguise.

Edited January 5, 2009 by think_too_mut

[LaoPo]

Any of you people ever been to China?

Since some 30 years. I have seen and witnessed the enormous mind-boggling changes.

No one, who hasn't been there, can even imagine what has been accomplished in such a short period of time.

The entire west has it's mouth full of critics about China and it's rulers; many of the criticism is true but it's also true that nobody on this planet has experience in running a country with 1,300.000.000 (Billion) people which lifted itself from it's ashes in a mere 30 years from deep poverty....nobody, but the Chinese themselves.

Put all the people of greater Europe (710 million) and the USA (300 million) together and you're still 300 million people short to reach the number in China...

It is impossible to install democracy (also monetary democracy) in such a short period (look what's happening in "democratic" Thailand...) and it needs time but in 30-50 years from now a certain form of democracy will prevail in China.

A long time you say....? Not if one looks at the history of the country of many thousands of years.

Sorry to be off topic but it has to be seen in a historic perspective, also regarding the Yuan, if one wants to see things clear, if possible at all

LaoPo

Should note that about 1 billion of the 1.3 still live in those ashes, only about 300 million have recieved any benefit from these "enormous mind-boggling changes" and over 100 million of those are migrant workers that don't live in the best of conditions.

TH

Well, I've been traveling inside China a lot, including in rural areas, since 30 years. Your quote about 1 billion living in ashes is nonsense.

When was the last time you were in China OUTSIDE the cities ?

I am not denying China has still a long way to go, but the story you're telling is not correct.

Criticizing China is easy but nobody outside China has experience in running such a huge country but the Chinese themselves.

Look how long it took for the west to become ''civilized'' and industrialized. China is a mere 30 years on track, It takes a bit more time than that.

Many forget than 50 years ago television just started and only limited people had access to a car, let alone access to internet or having a mobile phone.

It takes time.

LaoPo

[whiterussian]

Look how long it took for the west to become ''civilized'' and industrialized. China is a mere 30 years on track

China was according to some, THE most civilised, and definitely THE most industrialised while we westerners were prancing around poking enemies with lances and chasing grails... Thankfully our plundered wealth gave us the time and resources to sit back and work out what we call civilisation.

Time at last for the east to take over. Planet Asia. yipee!

[britmaveric]

China's population will be its undoing - pure/simple fact. Any rate yuan isn't going anywhere - long as its pegged.